The U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes quarterly projections of consumption and cost of energy sources.
It is projected that electricity consumption during summer will be 1.5 percent higher than in 2020 as economic activity increases. Power consumption in the U.S. will increase by 2.2 percent through the entire year of 2021.
It is estimated that the U.S. benchmark West Texas intermediate crude oil price will remain above $55 per barrel through 2022. A consistently high price will encourage more exploration and recovery especially in the Federal Offshore Region in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. crude oil production will average 11.3 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2021.
U.S. liquified natural gas exports will continue at approximately 9.5 billion cubic feet per day contributing to higher domestic prices that will average $3.05 per million BTUs in 2021, approximately 50 percent higher than in 2020.
It is anticipated that 21 gigawatts of new wind generated capacity will be installed and 32 gigawatts of solar generation will supply ‘clean’ electrical power in 2021.
Because of the escalation in price of natural gas, the use of coal will increase from 22 percent of electrical power generated in 2020 to 26 percent by mid-2021.
Although the U.S. Energy Information Agency monitors production of alternative sources of power, it is extremely difficult to predict black-swan events including hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Problems such as the malicious hacking of the Colonial Pipeline generally result in a short-term disruption in the supply of crude, gas, or other fuels. In this incident local shortages occurred along the 5,000-mile network extending from Texas to New York. The shortage of qualified drivers for gasoline and LP gas tankers will probably have a greater effect on supply and prices than the May ransomware incident.