USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, November 29^th 2024.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were unchanged on average this past week. Medium size was also unchanged. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on November 22^nd was $2.72 per dozen down 23.2 percent from $3.55 last week. This value was approximately $0.93 above the 3-year average of $1.79 per dozen and $0.97 above the corresponding week in 2023 at $1.75 per dozen. This past week shell egg inventory was down a substantial 17.6 percent, compared to a fall of 0.6 percent during the previous week. During the past week the NYC wholesale price fell 1.0 percent but with the immediate prospect of a plateau through the coming week. The shortfall in inventory with a small decline in wholesale price denotes steady consumer demand relative to supply but with a sharp upturn in orders by chains in anticipation of Thanksgiving purchases. Despite declines in price as reported by USDA over the past few days there is an anticipation of higher margins for producers through December despite steady replacement of depopulated flocks. Relatively higher prices compared to 2023 are attributed to previous losses due to HPAI in 2024 reducing the national flock by 13 million hens with increased seasonal demand.
• Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. During April 2024 almost 8.4 million hens were depopulated with an additional 5.7 million during May and 3.0 million in July. USDA recorded depopulation of 2.8 million hens in October and approximately 3 million in November to date, as incident cases of the fall 2024 wave. There is currently a deficit of approximately 13 million hens compared to the 2022 flock of 326 million at the onset of HPAI.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with moderating prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels will depend on constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline into the Christmas surge. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
• Total industry inventory was down by a noteworthy 15.2 percent overall this past week at 1.44 million cases including a 3.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 2.3 percent fall during the preceding week attributed to diversion to the shell-egg market.
• It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and in the pipeline as determined by weekly orders are probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock, but especially evident into a holiday weekend as evidenced by inventory this past week.
• The U.S. poultry industry has moved from a quiescent period regarding HPAI into a fall upsurge with incident cases in northern Utah, southern Washington State and Oregon in October and the loss of two complexes in the Central Valley of California this month. Two outbreaks were diagnosed in non-commercial flocks in Hawaii with both under investigation. California has recorded outbreaks on broiler-growing farms in four counties recently with ongoing losses among turkey growing farms. Canada has diagnosed cases in The Fraser Valley of British Columbia and outbreaks in Alberta Quebec and Saskatchewan. Over 616 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in fifteen states in 2024 with more than 335 herds in California over three months. This is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has occurred in Michigan, Colorado and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
• The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On November 27^th the stated total flock of 314.2 million, was down by 1.6 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets scheduled to attain production before the pre-Christmas surge in demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Utah, Washington State, Oregon and California it is estimated that the total egg- producing flock is approximately 13 million hens lower than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was down 6.7 percent to $2.72 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were down 0.4 percent to $2.56 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be shorter as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on November 25^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was unchanged from last week at $4.08 per dozen. Large size was unchanged at $4.06 per dozen. Mediums were unchanged at $3.71 per dozen delivered to DCs.

The stock of Medium size was down 3.8 percent and the inventory of Small size was down 14.5 percent over the past week suggesting that additional pullets placed in August for the late November through mid-December surge in demand are progressing in production. This has implications for prices during January 2025.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.6 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for October 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 57 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response) and now realistically 60 cents per dozen.

Currently producers of generic shell eggs should be operating with strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The November 22^nd edition of the USDA Egg Markets Overview confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was down $0.13 per dozen (-3.0 percent) to $4.17 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $4.05 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $4.24 per dozen.

Flock Size 

The loss of approximately 2.8 million laying hens in Utah, Washington State and Oregon during mid-to late October should be reflected in released USDA estimates of flock size. It is questioned whether the 3.0 million hens among three complexes depopulated in California during November to date have been accounted for. Any delay in posting accurate and updated data, during fall outbreaks, should be avoided given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Accurate and current values for both the producing and total flock are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting November 27^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 1.2 million to 308.0 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI was higher than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion and an additional loss of approximately 18 million hens due to HPAI through July and 2.8 million in October and most recently 3.0 million in California. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing. Based on inventory level and prices, the population of hens producing table eggs and breaking stock should now be balanced with pre-Thanksgiving demand by consumers. Industrial and food service off-take is stable, attaining pre-COVID levels. Prices for shell eggs declined in August establishing a plateau in late September followed by a progressive rise through October to high seasonal levels before an anticipated pre-Thanksgiving increase.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on November 27^th 2024 was 1.6 million lower at 314.2 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 6.2 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicates that molted hens are resuming production. Given the season and the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 13 million fewer hens in the total flock that now include cases of HPAI that emerged in October and November. The apparent difference is equivalent to about four percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on November 25^th 2024 was 2.319 million lbs. (1,054 metric tons), 0.8 percent unchanged from last week and 3.0 percent down from 2.338 million lbs. on November 1^st 2024. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of August.

The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on November 25^th 2024 documented a total stock of 24.7 million pounds (11,219 metric tons) of frozen egg products on October 31^st 2024. This quantity was down 21.5 percent from the October 31^st 2023 value of 31.5 million pounds. The October 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was up 1.0 percent from the previous month ending September 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably lower domestic demand, decreased exports or their combination. Compared to October 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 39.3 percent to 1.63 million lbs. on October 31^st 2024. Compared to October 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 69.3 percent to 392,000 lbs. on October 31^st 2024.

A total of 91.8 percent (22.66 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.5 percent) and “Unclassified” (47.3 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective November 25^th 2024 was down 15.2 percent over the previous week. Inventory over the past week followed a fall of 0.9 percent the previous week. This suggests increased orders consistent with higher demand by consumers through mid-November. Combined with breaking stock, the total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms is now at a rounded level of 1.44 million cases rounded (1.70 million last week; Down 258,200 cases). The U.S. population of laying hens at this time is influenced by:-

• Losses following outbreaks of HPAI with the depopulation of over 25.0 million hens since April 1^st. Losses are offset by approximately 22 million pullets transferred each month year-to-date
• The population unaffected by HPAI, fires or climatic extremes.
• Flocks retained after molting with an anticipated increase in this category as influenced by prevailing wholesale egg prices, and indirectly responding to flock depopulation from HPAI.
• Started pullets from chick placements during August 2024. Going forward, younger hens will assume a larger proportion of the national flock as more flocks are placed compensating for the flocks depleted due to HPAI.

All six USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 22.9 percent from the previous week to 360,100 cases
• The Southeast Region was down 12 percent to 264,900 cases
• The South Central Region was down 20.5 percent to 222,400 cases
• The Northeast Region was down 10.2 percent to 162,000 cases
• The Southwest Region was down 14.4 percent to 106,900 cases.
• The Northwest Region was down 20.9 percent but over a small base to 46,400 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,438,700 cases (1,696,900 cases last week), down 15.2 percent, of which 80.8 percent were shell eggs (83.2 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 3.3 percent to 276,100 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 17.6 percent attaining 1,162,600 cases. These changes are a function of regional shell-egg demand. Reoccurrence of HPAI affecting egg-production complexes in three states during October and two large egg complexes and a number of large broiler and turkey farms in California during November has influenced buyers who were previously unconcerned over short-term supply to restock inventory.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was down 6.7 last week and checks were 0.4 percent lower. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 65.1 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (65.1 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (unchanged) compared to a fall of 3.6 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 64.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The moderate decrease in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products (inventory down 3.3 percent this past week) confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On November 25^th 2024 the inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 332,400 cases (down 22.5 percent from last week at 428,700 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, down 12.7 percent to 29,300 cases. (down 0.2 % to 33,600 cases)
• Certified Organic, up 0.6 percent to 66,200 cases. (down 13.8% to 65,800 cases)
• Cage-Free category, down 28.6 percent to 236,900 cases. (down 4.6% to 329,300 cases)

Sales of specialty eggs increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

Existing and proposed individual state legislation mandating sale of only cage-free eggs will support most of the completed and in-progress transition from cages but significant additional re-housing will not be completed by the beginning of 2025, now five weeks away and evidently never, as projected previously by most industry observers. The constitutional status of Proposition #12 was confirmed by SCOTUS in a May 11^th 2023 decision with specific reference to the Dormant Commerce Clause relating to interstate trade. Legislation rolling back California Proposition #12 (‘EATS Act”) will probably not be incorporated into the delayed 2023 Farm Bill despite lobbying by pork producers. Many retail chains are ‘renEGGing’ on or extending their time commitments to achieve an acceptable transition to cage-free eggs despite coercion by animal welfare groups.

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

A comprehensive structured market research project on cage-free eggs has provided an indication of consumer willingness to pay for this attribute*.

The industry requires a study on other aspects including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2024 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in October and November representing the fall season.

*Caputo,V. et al The Transition to Cage-Free Eggs. February 2023

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on November 22^nd 2024 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices

Large, in cartons generic white: $2.28 Up 12.3 percent ($2.03)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.84 Down 17.9 percent ($4.22)

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $4.09 Down 3.1 percent ($4.22)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $5.21 Unchanged ($5.21)

National loose, (FOB dock): $2.72 Down 23.3 percent ($3.55)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $4.20 Down 0.7 percent ($4.23)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported November 22^ndfor the previous week.

Midwest $4.08 Down 3.1 percent ($4.21)

Northeast $4.14 Down 3.0 percent ($4.27)

Southeast $4.22 Down 3.0 percent ($4.35)

South Central $4.24 Down 3.0 percent ($4.37)

Combined $4.17 Down 3.0 percent ($4.30)

USDA resumed posting weekly prices for shell eggs by category this week. The following data reflects the previous week ending November 22^nd compared with prices from November 15^th.

USDA Certified Organic, Brown,Large: $5.65 ($6.31)

Cage-Free Brown, Large: $2.65 ($2.76)

Omega-3 Enriched Specialty, Brown, Large: $3.17 ($3.99)

Generic White, Large Grade A $2.28 ($2.03)

The advertised featured price for Large white grade A for the week ending November 22^nd was $2.25 up $0.25 (+12.3 percent). The market has demonstrated continued fluctuation in advertised retail promotional prices. Current supply is in balance with consumer demand reflecting the variable number of features over the past month. The decrease in inventory held by the industry as reported by the USDA this past week is considered to be due to substantially increased orders by chains at high prices to restore inventory. Producers and some breakers continue to divert shell eggs from breaking to the higher-priced shell market.

The USDA benchmark-advertised retail price for certified organic large brown for the week was $5.65 per dozen, down $0.60 per dozen (-10.4 percent) from the USDA price of $6.31 per dozen for the week ending November 15^th. Cage-free brown was featured at $2.65 per dozen, down $0.11 per dozen (-4.0 percent). Week-over-week single digit fluctuations expressed as a percentage can be expected in the stock of specialty and organic eggs based on the small base of these categories.

The differential between certified organic and cage-free brown was $3.00 per dozen suggesting greater demand for cage-free brown at the expense of certified organic as evidenced by inventory last week.

Cage-free Large white was featured at $2.65 per dozen (121 stores), $0.19 per dozen (6.7 percent) lower than cage-free brown at $2.84 per dozen (179 stores)

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on November 1^st 2024, the number of certified organic hens in October was unchanged from September 2024 at 20.8 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined offset by October flock depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in October 2024 was down 0.2 percent from September 2024 to 106.7 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in October 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.8 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 106.7 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 127.5 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

This total flock size represents 39.1 percent (September 39.1 percent) of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 41.5 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 307 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

The accuracy of individual monthly values was previously questioned given a history of either constant numbers or a sharp change in successive months as documented over the past two years. It is presumed that the October release reflects a realistic number of producing hens housed cage-free during August 2024. Precise quarterly reports would be more suitable for the industry in planning expansion and allocation of capital than inaccurate monthly values.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending November 23^rd 2024 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on November 27^th 2024 was down 4.1 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,461,735 cases, (1,524,425 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.1 percent (51.6 percent processed in-line for the previous week) indicating a higher proportion of off-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 70.3 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (69.4 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks fell slightly this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 3.3 percent this past week to 276,100 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2023 in-line breakers processed 52.9 percent of eggs broken.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting October 2024, yield from 7,159,323 cases (6,098,319 cases in September) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period September 29^th 2024 through November 2^nd 2024. Edible yield was 39.4 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 61.2; white, 23.3; yolk, 12.4; dried, 3.1.

All eggs broken during 2023 attained 69.78 million cases, 8.4 percent less than 2022. Eggs broken in 2024 to date amounted to 67.31 million cases, 4.7 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty following the ending of COVID support, high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was down 6.7 percent this past week to $2.72 per dozen with the extreme range of $2.09 to $2.75 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on November 25^th. The price of checks was down 0.4 percent this past week to an average of $2.56 per dozen over the most frequent range of $2.55 to $2.57 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated November 25^th 2024 confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were unchanged from last week and Medium size was also unchanged from the previous week. A 17.6 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a stable benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand but with transitory substantial orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The November 25^th 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was down 0.8 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $3.93 ($3.99), (estimated by proportion): L. $3.87 ($3.90): M. $3.46 ($3.51)

The November 25^th 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, (with the previous week in parentheses) was up 1.3 percent from last week, despite depletion of over three million hens representing 35 percent of the state flock since September. A third of the laying hens in the state were lost during the 4^th quarter of 2023 but were offset by replacement pullets albeit with lower availability of eggs from Midwest and Southwest supplying states. In September the hen population increased to 8.46 million and is now presumably below six million but the hen population should be compared to 10.5 million during September 2023.

1. $5.35 ($5.28); L. $5.28 ($5.21); M. $5.00 ($4.93)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on November 27^th 2024 was up 18.9 points from the last weekly report to +8.9 with a 15.2 percent decrease in total inventory and a 17.6 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

The USDA Monthly Report covering October 2024 production including text, tables, data and prices and the Q1 FY 2025 financial results for Cal-Maine Foods can be accessed under the STATISTICS tab.

Egg Products

Again the USDA did not release complete data for egg products for the past week. The USDA has not posted a report on dried egg inventory since March 13^th 2020 due to inability to obtain data from producers, and will not issue reports for the immediate future. This situation is unacceptable given the extent of trading and the resources of the USDA.

Dried Egg

The extreme range in prices for dried whole egg and yolk products in $ per lb. was released for the most recent week ending November 22^nd. Values over past months illustrate the trend in prices influenced by HPAI depopulation and subsequent re-population:-

Frozen Egg

On November 22^nd the USDA posted the range in prices for frozen whole egg for the previous week. Prices in cents per lb. are shown for products during the previous week:-

1. Extreme range as released

Whole egg, up 1.5%; White, unchanged; Yolks -2.1%.

In the absence of regular and accurate weekly data it is not possible to assess trends in demand for categories of egg products by the manufacturing, food service and export sectors. Since trading is occurring USDA should be able to ascertain and post prices.

October averages (September): Whole. $1.76, ($1.87); Whites, $1,14, ($1.35); Yolks, $2.90, ($2.65).

Liquid Egg

Values for Whites and Yolks covering certified truckload quantities have been released at irregular intervals over past months. The release for November 22^nd listed whole egg at 198 cents per lb. for the current week (range 198 to 202 cents per lb.) compared to the previous week at 213 cents per lb. October values (in parentheses) were: -

Whole, $1.61, ($1.44); Whites, $0.61 ($0.96); Yolks, $2.37, ($2.29). (certified product)

COMMENTS

There was a significant loss of a complex holding 0.5 million hens in California due to HPAI confirmed this week. Outbreaks among backyard and non-WOAH flocks were diagnosed in in California, Washington State, Alaska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Idaho, Oklahoma and Illinois, suggesting dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central and Mississippi Flyways.. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. The H5N1 strain B3.13 infection has affected approximately 675 diagnosed dairy herds in fifteen states with cases rising to 461 in California, mainly in the Central Valley. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure depending on weather patterns and temperature in all four fly zones. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Quebec.

Approximate losses in commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI and updates during the 2022/3 phases of the current epornitic included:-

• 6,900,000 broilers on 28 farms in 8 states during 2002 - 2023
• 330,000 broiler breeders on 11 farms in 6 states.
• 360,000 upland game birds October through December 2023.
• 14,100,000 turkeys including breeder flocks in 8 states during 2022 and through 2023 year-to-date.
• 52,300,000 egg-production hens in total with 95 percent on 37 large complexes above 0.5 million in addition to 3,500,000 pullets with a total of 54 locations in 12 states. Pullet mortality does not include “at risk” replacements depleted on affected complexes with contiguous pullet rearing. During the fourth quarter of 2023 more than 13.0 million hens were depopulated in 13 outbreaks.

Losses reported in 2024 to date include:-

• 22 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
• 6 million commercial meat turkeys and 50,000 breeders
• 9 million broilers
• 100,000 commercial ducks
• Numerous backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

This past week the industry has depleted 68,000 turkeys, 73,000 broilers, 100,000 ducks and 540,000 table-egg producing hens..

Backyard flocks (non-WOAH) allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks especially in northern tier states suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

It is hoped that APHIS recognizes the need to provide the industry with science-based recommendations to prevent additional incident HPAI outbreaks. This presumes prompt analysis and reporting of whatever field and molecular epidemiology is collected and processed. APHIS is presumed to have planned epidemiologic field studies and allocated personnel and other resources in anticipation of the now ongoing fall 2024 resurgence in HPAI. Large complexes in six states were infected during November and December 2023 and again in April, May, July, and the fall wave in October and November 2024 to date. Accordingly appropriate guidance from USDA-APHIS is anticipated by the Industry before more incident cases are diagnosed. A release on the investigation of risk factors associated with outbreaks in dairy herds and a comment on the specifics of mutations that have occurred in viruses isolated from infected animals and the serologic status of workers in contact with infected flocks should be shared with virologists, epidemiologists and the poultry industry.