On March 14^th the USDA Economic Research Service issued updated values for egg production during 2022 with a projection for 2023. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous February 14^th 2022 report.

Projected egg production for 2022 was revised upward by 0.8 percent from from the February Report to 7,781 million dozen This will be 3.1 percent lower than in 2021 due to depopulation of approximately 44 million hens infected with HPAI from early spring extending through mid-December. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 was increased by 0.9 percent despite higher prices, to 279.0 eggs but down 3.5 eggs (1.2 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was retained at 282 cents per dozen. This was 138 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 4^th Quarter of 2022.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy that is impacted by now moderating inflation with a 0.4 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index in February and 6.0 percent compared to the corresponding month in 2021. Groceries were up 10.2 percent from February 2022. Eggs represented a standout among foods with retail price for conventional shell eggs up 55.4 percent from (pre-HPAI) February 2022. Price declined 6.7 percent in February compared to the preceding month. Flock size may be limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement, the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems and the cost of ingredients that will influence margins and result in cessation of production by some small-scale producers. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses in the ongoing avian influenza epornitic that may undergo a resurgence late during the 2^nd quarter of 2023 or thereafter; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine; limited export volume of eggs and the duration of current high domestic consumer demand.

The USDA projected egg production in 2023 to be down 0.7 percent from the February Report to 8,035 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 285.9 eggs, down 1.5 eggs or 0.5 percent from the February projection. 

In 2022 egg exports as shell and products combined attained 226.5 million dozen shell-equivalents, or 4.3 percent of production, down 42.2 percent from 392 million dozen or 4.9 percent of production in 2021. During 2022 egg imports, some in shell form but predominantly products attained 25.9 million dozen shell-equivalents, up 42.8 percent from 14.9 million dozen in 2021. The forecast for 2023 is 26.0 million dozen almost unchanged from 2022.

March 2023 data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released March 14^th 2023

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices, exports and related industry statistics.

Export of Shell Eggs and Products, January 2023.

Exports of shell eggs since March 2022 have been constrained by availability due to progressive and cumulative depletion of 44 million hens over 11 months as a result of HPAI with the national flock about 20 million hens constantly lower than the pre-HPAI complement. Sharp rises in price as a result of supply-demand disequilibrium have made U.S. export prices uncompetitive as denoted by lower volumes over successive months. Egg products have also been impacted but to a lesser extent than shell eggs.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January 2022 with January 2023:-

U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING JANUARY 2022 COMPARED WITH JANUARY 2023

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during January 2023 decreased by 18.6 percent in volume but gained 107 percent in total value compared to pre-HPAI January 2022. Unit value was $1.54 per dozen higher to $2.98 per dozen compared to January 2022.

Canada was the leading importer of shell eggs in January 2023, with 3.5 million dozen representing 66.7 percent of volume and 82.6 percent of the $17 million total value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs. Unit price in January 2023 was $3.23 per dozen compared to $1.00 per dozen for 0.1 million dozen in January 2022. The sharp increase in imports by Canada is attributed to higher consumer demand and depletion of some domestic flocks due to HPAI. The controlled supply situation in Canada inhibits flexibility necessitating imports from the U.S.

Hong Kong a traditional large-scale importer responsible for 21 percent of imports in 2022 was a distant 5^th-ranked importer of U.S. shell eggs during January 2023. Only 0.1 million dozen were shipped represented 1.8 percent of volume and 1.2 percent of value. Unit price at $2.00 per dozen was $0.54 per dozen below the average prevailing 12-month trailing average nest-run USDA benchmark price of $2.54*. This indicates a loss in revenue experienced by shippers presumably operating under contract. During 2022 Hong Kong imported 14.8 million dozen from the U.S. valued at $18.3 million compared to 2021 with a volume of 53.8 million dozen valued at $48.1 million

During January 2023 five nations with individual volumes of 0.1 to 0.6 million dozen contributed to a collective 2.1 million dozen representing 36.8 percent of U.S. exports. This compares with 4.4 million dozen in January 2022. Value of exports for the five nations amounted to $2.8 million in January 2023 compared to $5.1 million for the first month of 2022. Unit price was $1.33 per dozen, $1.93 below the January nest-run benchmark price of $3.26* per dozen and did not take into account processing, inland transport and packaging

* USDA Benchmark nest-run unit prices: January, $1.05 per dozen; February, $1.35; March, $1.58; April, $2.36; May, $2.09; June, $1.91; July, $2.71, August, $1.91; September $2.70; October $2.84; November, $3.40; December $4.39 and January 2023, $3.26.

EGG PRODUCTS

The total volume of exported egg products during January 2023 decreased by 31.2 percent to 1,652 metric tons compared to January 2022. Total value of $10.7 million was higher by 8.0 percent compared to January 2022. Unit value increased by 57.0 percent to $6,476 per ton, up from the $4,125 received in January 2022. During 2022 the U.S. exported 25,306 metric tons of egg products valued at $115 million with a unit price of $4,572 per metric ton. Escalation in unit price reflects the composition of exports and the relationship between World supply and demand. Ukraine is now restrained in production but India was a significant exporter during the month.

Mexico was the leading importer of egg products in January 2023 based on value receiving 457 metric tons from the U.S. representing 27.7 percent of volume and 27.0 percent of value with a unit price of $6,345 per metric ton. Volume for January 2023 was up by 25.8 percent and value was higher by 123 percent compared to January 2022.

 Weekly Commodity and Energy Report: March 9^th 2023.

OVERVIEW

At 14H00 on March 9^th CME corn was down 2.8 percent to 620 cents per bushel from the previous week. Corn price was influenced by static ethanol production and a projected higher elevated ending stock in the March WASDE despite higher export orders this past week. Soybeans were unchanged from last week at 1,520 cents per bushel for March delivery. Soybean meal was 2.2 percent higher to $500 per ton for March delivery. The market has now accepted projections of crop size and higher stocks as documented in the February 23^rd USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook. Commodity exports were not adversely influenced by a moderate rise in the Dollar Index to 105.7.

Factors influencing commodity prices in either direction over the past four weeks included:-

• Fears of a mild U.S. recession in 2023 persist. The Federal Reserve increased the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the February FOMC Meeting. In the post-release commentary and Minutes and subsequent presentations By Fed. Board Members including the February 7^th address by Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Jerome Powell, continued moderate increases should be expected to suppress inflation. In Congressional testimony on March 7^th and 8^th Chairman Powell opined that higher raises in rates may be applied if inflation is not reduced. This hawkish sentiment drove down equity markets by two percent on March 7^th. The GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 attained 2.9 percent. The January 2023 CPI and WPI were higher than forecast and jobless claims on March 2^nd were down below 200,000 for the seventh consecutive week suggesting continued inflation. (Transitory downward pressure on markets)

• It is evident that polarization in Congress will result in future conflict over funding SNAP, raising the debt ceiling and agricultural legislation including the 2023 Farm Bill. (Ultimately, downward pressure).

• Geopolitical tensions that impact wheat, corn, oilseeds and vegetable oil exports from Ukraine persist. Limited restoration of Black Sea shipping was accomplished following security guarantees by Ukraine to the Russian Federation. Extension of the agreement into April is questionable unless Russia receives concessions on sanctions. Russia has inflicted extensive and deliberate damage on the agricultural and energy infrastructure of Ukraine including elevators and crushing plants. (Upward pressure on corn and wheat and an indirect effect on soybeans if Black Sea shipping is interrupted.)

• The March 8^th WASDE documented lower soybean and grain production and exports from Argentine due to drought. The U.S. will export less corn resulting in higher ending stocks. Soybean exports will be higher, reducing ending stocks with resulting changes in price.

• There is an expectation that Brazil will attain a record soybean harvest of 153 million metric tons with export of 97 million metric tons. Corn harvests from Brazil for the 2022-2023 season will be higher than the previous season although recent dry weather will reduce yields. (Lower prices in the future subject to favorable reports on crop progress and actual harvests)

• The Dollar Index (DXY) has ranged from 95 to 116 over 52 weeks but has recently shown less volatility. The DXY was at 101 on June 2^nd peaking at 116 in late October but declining to a range of 103 to 105 during February and attaining 105.7 on March 8^th. The dollar index influences timing and volume of export orders. (Fluctuation in corn and soybean prices, high value depresses U.S. sales)

EXPORTS

The restored and functional ‘legacy’ FAS Export Report released on March 9^th for the week ending March 2^nd reflecting market year 2022-2023, confirmed that outstanding export orders for corn amounted to 14.57 million metric tons (573.4 million bushels) with 16.1 million metric tons (633.1 million bushels) actually shipped. Net orders for the past week covering the 2022-2023 market year attained 1.4 million metric tons (55.6 million bushels) with 1.1 million metric tons (41.4 million bushels) shipped over the past working week. For the current market year outstanding sales of corn to date are 41.6 percent lower than for the corresponding week a year ago. For market year 2023-2024 outstanding sales this week amounted to 1.68 million metric tons (66.9 million bushels), with 0.1 million metric tons (44.5 million bushels) ordered for the 2023-2024-market year.

(Conversion 39.36 bushels per metric ton)

USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, March 8^th 2023.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were higher this week by 6.5 percent on average, representing a continuation of the upward move from last week after seven previous consecutive weeks of decline. Mediums were up 6.5 percent narrowing the gap with Large and indicating restoration in the balance between supply and demand in this size despite many pullets commencing production. This past week shell egg inventory was down 1.4 percent consistent with increased demand attributed to presumably lower shelf prices. Both retail price and demand has stabilized but will be influenced by eventual restoration of the national flock. Over the coming month retail purchases will be influenced by shelf price. If chains reduce margins consistent with prevailing wholesale prices, greater demand can be anticipated. Eggs are still competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods. Availability and hence prices have been influenced by depletion of close to 44 million hens in 22 large complexes in eleven states extending from the last week in February through mid-December 2022 with the producing flock down on average by 20 million hens during 2022 and continuing into 2023 compared with the pre-HPAI complement.
• Total industry inventory was down by 0.9 percent overall this past week to 1.63 million cases with a concurrent 1.3 percent increase in breaking stock attributed to lower food service and industrial demand. Wholesale unit prices during early 2023 although on a downward trajectory during January and early February have contrasted favorably with the two previous years that were characterized by low ex-plant unit revenue.
• It is now apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important over the short term to establishing wholesale price than the USDA regional inventory figures published weekly.
• Due to the depletion of flocks as a result of HPAI, comparable high unit revenue will now be a reality through March and April 2023. Sporadic outbreaks of HPAI are likely given the migration of waterfowl. The number and extent of outbreaks cannot be assessed until more information is available concerning the molecular and field epidemiology relating to cases. The USDA has yet to identify modes of transmission for the 2022 epornitic including airborne spread. There have been no case-control studies released on possible deficiencies in biosecurity on affected complexes that presumably demonstrated specific risk factors. APHIS has been remiss in evaluating available data and providing timely practical guidance on prevention as evidenced by releasing a backdated report this past week devoid of recommendations to prevent HPAI infection of flocks.
• The current relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price amplifies both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three months. The benchmark functions to the detriment of the industry over the long term. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• According to the USDA the U.S. flock in production was down 0.4 percent or 1.2 million hens to 301.4 million hens during the week ending March 8^th. The flock in production includes about 3.0 million molted hens that resumed lay during the past week plus 4.0 million pullets attaining production.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock was up 4.7 percent this past week to 222.5 cents per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 9.8 percent to 201.0 cents per dozen. Prices for breaking stock will remain high over the period of recovery from HPAI until replacement flocks reach maturity.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports released on March 6^th the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 6.4 percent to $2.65 per dozen. Large size was up 6.5 percent to $2.63 per dozen; the Medium price was up 6.5 percent to $2.60 per dozen as delivered to DCs. Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 6-Region blended nest-run cost of 83.9 cents per dozen in January 2023, excluding provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 50 cents per dozen in mid-2022 according to the EIC but now probably closer to 55 cents per dozen. The progression of prices during 2023 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #634, MARCH 8^th 2023

OVERVIEW

The USDA understandably retained values for the production of corn and soybeans for the March #634 edition of the WASDE to reflect actual corn and soybean production, revised export projections and consequential changes in ending stocks and market prices.

With respect to the World situation it is evident that the 2022/3 harvest of all crops in Ukraine, a major World supplier, will be reduced by at least one third compared with pre-invasion values. The situation in Ukraine has no short-term prospect for resolution despite initiation of ocean shipments from the Black Sea ports, although this is subject to the whims of the President of the Russian Federation.

The March 2023 WASDE predictably retained actual corn and soybean harvest data for the 2022 season, with corn harvested from 79.2 million acres and soybeans from 86.3 million acres.

The March 2023 WASDE value for corn yield based on actual harvest data was held at 173.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 175.8 bushels per acre in 2021. The estimate of soybean yield was held at 49.5 bushels per acre. Yield was 51.2 bushels per acre in 2021.

The March 2023 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was raised 5.9 percent from 1,267 million bushels to 1,342 million bushels with reduced exports. The USDA lowered the projected ending stock for soybeans by 6.7 percent to 210 million bushels.

The March 2023 WASDE projection reduced the projected price of corn to $6.60 per bushel. The projected price for soybeans was unchanged at 1,430 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was raised $15 per ton to $465 per ton. The price projections for soybeans and soybean meal deviated from the March 8^th CME quotations for March delivery of corn and soybean meal respectively.

Projections included in the March 2023 WASDE report reflect the most recent estimates of commodity production in the Southern Hemisphere. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation with occupation of 20 percent of the Nation’s land area and following extensive destruction of infrastructure. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities during the current market year despite drought and taking into effect relaxation of COVID restrictions on consumer and demand.

Reports on volumes of commodities exported are included in weekly editions of EGG-NEWS based on published USDA data.

CORN

Based on current 2023 data, the corn harvest for 2022 was retained at 13,730 million bushels compared to 15,062 million bushels in 2021. The U.S. 2022 harvest is projected to be 9.3 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was held at 5,275 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” Category was unchanged at 5,250 million bushels consistent with current demand for E-10 and other blends. Gasoline consumption is restrained by prevailing high prices and general inflation. Projected corn exports were reduced 3.9 percent to 1,850 million bushels, based on recent orders, the volume of projected shipments to China and Mexico and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and drought in Argentine. Ending stocks were projected to be 5.9 percent higher from the February 2023 WASDE to 1,342 million bushels.

USDA Data On Cage-Free Production For February 2023 

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, correlating and interpreting the data posted weekly on the EGG-NEWS Egg WeeklyPrice and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage-Free Report for February 2023, released on March 1^st 2023 documented a 4.0 percent reduction in the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to 16.8 million (rounded to 0.1 million). The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing was up 4.9 percent from January 2023 to 98.2 million. A two month increase of 10.2 million hens is considered unrealistic given that the average number as reported by USDA over the past nine months was 87.9 million with 88 million in December 2022. Comparable values for hens over successive months are questioned given the continuing cycle of placing pullets, expansion of facilities and depletion of old hens, with some depopulation due to HPAI but with limited application of molting. The respective numbers of hens claimed for organic and cage-free flocks should reflected the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters.

Average weekly egg production for Certified Organic in February 2023 was down by 5.1 percent compared to January 2023 with an average of 82.0 percent on a hen-week basis. Average weekly flock production for cage free flocks other than Certified Organic was up in February 2023 by 3.7 percent over January 2023 with an average of 80.9 percent on a hen-week basis Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements laid down in anticipation of pre-Easter and pre-Christmas demand. Average flock production in January 2023 should not have included any HPAI depopulation, but reflected a number of older flocks some of which were previously molted together with the relatively higher production from pullet chicks placed during August 2022.

*Comprises only NE Region based on 65 stores.

Negotiated nest-run gradeable cage-free price for February 2023 averaged $3.29 per dozen down by 33.8 percent from $4.97 per dozen in January 2023 reflecting higher demand. The February 2023 advertised  U.S. retail price for cage-free eggs in the NE Region was $4.49 per dozen. The absence of data reflecting egg prices for five regions denotes a profound deficiency in the ability of the USDA to obtain and analyzed retail price data. Eggs are priced on the shelf for review and IRI data is available.

The apparent disparity between actual wholesale and retail prices since the onset of HPAI suggests that chains are maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories. This strategy restricts volume of sales and is to the disadvantage of producers.

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues their report on volumes and prices at monthly intervals for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is obvious doubt as to the accuracy of individual monthly flock numbers especially when reports show a marked change from the previous month in a quarter or no change in the cage-free flock for sequential months. It is suggested that USDA should consider a quarterly report with more accurate and consistent hen data. This would be more useful to the industry for planning and marketing decisions.

Subscribers are referred to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.

According to USDA economists, retail egg prices increased by 8.5 percent in January 2023, approximately 70.1 percent above January 2022.  The USDA-ERS now predicts that egg prices will increase by 37.8 percent in 2023 but with a wide range of 18.3 to 62.3 percent attributed to volatility.  Concurrently the USDA-ERS predicted a 4.7 percent increase in the price of meats, 7.2 percent for dairy products and 12.8 percent for cereals and bakery products.

Wholesale farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase by 7.4 percent in 2023 with a wide prediction interval of -32.6 to 76.1 percent.  Egg prices are extremely volatile, complicating reliable predictions.

EGG-NEWS will monitor weekly USDA wholesale prices by region and average retail prices to document retail margins.

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released December 30^th 2022 posted November prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

The USDA ERS summarised prices as follows:-

“The November Prices Received Index (2011 as a base) for Agricultural Production was 133.4, an increase of 4.5 percent from October 2022 and 23 percent from November 2021. At 127.1, the Crop Production Index was up 4.3 percent from last month and 19 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 143.4, increased 3.2 percent from October and 30 percent from November last year. Producers received higher prices during November for lettuce, soybeans, market eggs and cattle but lower prices for hogs, hay, milk, and cotton. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In November, there was increased monthly movement for corn, milk, cattle, and cotton and decreased marketing of soybeans, grapes, lettuce, and wheat.”

“The November Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 137.1, was unchanged from October 2022 but up 11 percent from November 2021. Higher prices for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, concentrates, and nitrogen offset lower prices for other services, hay and forages, complete feeds, and other machinery”.

Corn farmers received $6.49 per bushel in November 2022 compared to $5.26 per bushel in November 2021, up 23.4 percent.

Soybean farmers received $14.00 per bushel in November 2022 compared to $12.10 per bushel in November 2021, up 15.7 percent.

Egg farmers received $3.34 per dozen for table eggs in November 2022 compared to $1.09 per dozen in November 2022, up 206.4 percent. The sharp year-on-year increase is attributed to disequilibrium between supply and demand. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in depletion of 44 million hens with a reduction of 20 million producing birds in the supply flock on average from mid 2022 onwards. This situation was coupled with increased demand as consumers increased purchases of eggs representing a competitively priced protein source in an inflationary environment.

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on January 12^th 2023, documented storage of the major commodities, classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of corn and soybeans, the two major commodities relevant to the cost of poultry production were stated to be:-

CORN

“Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2022 totaled 10.8 billion bushels, down 7 percent from December 1, 2021. Of the total stocks, 6.75 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 7 percent from a year earlier.          

Off-farm stocks, at 4.06 billion bushels, are down 8 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2022 indicated disappearance is 4.30 billion bushels, compared with 4.67 billion bushels during the same period last year”.

SOYBEANS

“Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2022 totaled 3.02 billion bushels, down 4 percent from December 1, 2021. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.48 billion bushels, down 3 percent from a year ago.  

Off-farm stocks, at 1.55 billion bushels, are down 4 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2022 totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier”.

Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Commodity Report and WASDE #632 released on January 12^th  are posted in this edition and thereafter retrievable under the STATISTICS tab.

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on November 14th documented continued progress in harvesting both soybean and corn crops as the season winds down.

Corn is 8 percent ahead of the 4-year average having advanced 6 percent during the past week. The harvest in 2022 is three percent ahead of the corresponding week in 2021.

The soybean harvest advanced 2 percent to 96 percent, 5 percent ahead of both the 4-year average and the corresponding week in 2021.

EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the remainder of November.           

Crop October 16th October 23rd 4-Year Average Corn Dented (%) Corn Mature (%) Corn Harvested (%) 100 100   87 100 100    93        100            100    85 Soybeans Setting Pods (%) Soybeans Dropping Leaves (%) Soybeans Harvested (%) 100 100   94        100 100   96 100 100   91

The November 9th WASDE #630 estimated the average U.S corn yield at 172.3 bushels per acre (176.7 bushels per acre in 2021) with a 2022 harvest of 13,930 million bushels. The soybean yield was projected at 50.2 bushels per acre (51.7 bushels per acre in 2021) with a 2022 harvest of 4,346 million bushels.

The November WASDE #630 is retrievable under the STATISTICS Tab.