OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the May12^thWorld Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #660, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were updated from previous edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted, recent annual crop yields and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and tariff policy influencing exports.

The May 12^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 87.4 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 82.7 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The May WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 181.0 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 52.5 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The May USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was 2024 to 1,800 million bushels. The May USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was 295 million bushels.

The May 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 420 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,025 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the May 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the previous and current market year.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the May WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 15,820 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,900 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,385 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were predicted to attain 2,675 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,800 million bushels or 10.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the May WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 420 cents per bushel. At 13H00 EDT on March 13^th after the noon release of the WASDE the previous day, the CME spot price for corn was 440 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent from the USDA May projection.

MAY 2025 WASDE #660 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 420 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop and an estimated yield of 52.5 bushels per acre but with reduced acreage to be planted, the May WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,340 million bushels harvested. Crush volume was projected at 2,490 million bushels despite increased industry capacity. Projected exports were predicted to be 1,815 million bushels notwithstanding the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 295 million bushels, down 22.3 percent from the December WASDE report reflecting the 2024-2025 season. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE May projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025 harvest was 1,025 cents per bushel. At 13H00 EDT on May 13^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,072 cents per bushel, 4.6 percent above the May USDA projection.

May 2025 WASDE #660 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,025 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 58.7 million tons, consistent with the soybean crush volume of 2,490 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,325 million tons. Exports were estimated at 18.0 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $310 is unchanged since the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 13H00 EDT on February 13^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $293 per ton, down 5.5 percent compared to the May WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 MAY 2025 WASDE #660 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the May 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“The 2025/26 global coarse grain outlook is for record production and consumption and a decline in ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to rise to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, with the largest increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Tanzania and Canada. Larger area expectations drive an increase in corn production for Argentina, while a return to trend yield and higher area boosts production prospects for Ukraine. For Brazil, expansion in corn area drives larger crop prospects. World barley, sorghum, millet, mixed grain, and rye production are forecast higher than a year ago, while oat production is down slightly”.

“World corn consumption is expected to rise two percent to a record 1.274 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production for the second consecutive year. World corn imports are forecast to rise one percent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partly offsetting are declines for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey”.

“Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are down 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. For 2025/26, stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to rise, mostly reflecting an increase for the United States partly offset by a decline for Brazil.

For China, total coarse grain imports for 2025/26 are forecast at 28.5 million tons, up 6.5 million from a year ago but below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. Corn imports are projected up 2.0 million tons to 10.0 million, while sorghum is up 4.0 million to 8.5 million. Barley imports are up 0.5 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 soybean crush is growing three percent to 366.5 million tons, with most of the growth for China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. Overall, the highest growth in oilseed meal exports is soybean meal for the United States and Argentina and sunflower seed meal for Ukraine. Global vegetable oil exports are rising three percent on higher palm oil exports for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand and higher sunflower seed oil exports for Ukraine and Turkey. Global vegetable oil stocks are flat with the prior year”.

“Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are expected to increase four percent to 188.4 million tons from 2024/25. Exports of major South American soybean-producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) are expected to rise 8.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower U.S. exports. Global imports are increased for Argentina on higher supplies in neighboring countries and in China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria. Soybean imports for China are up 4 million tons the revised 2024/25 import forecast at 112 million. Global ending stocks are up 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by lower U.S. stocks”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)