On June 18^th 2025 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2024 with an updated projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous April 16^th 2024 report.

Projected egg production for 2025 was adjusted downward from 7,737 million dozen in 2024 by 4.7 percent to 7,372 million dozen due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI through Q1 2025 with incident cases occurring in April and May totaling 36.4 million hens year-to-date. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2025 will be 260.3 eggs, down 10.3 egg equivalents (-3.8 percent) from 2024. The projected average 2025 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 102 cents to 405 cents per dozen. Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs.

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 1.0 million per week. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and for some producers by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On January1^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA to be 304 million hens, 22 million or 6.8 percent below the nominal producing flock averaging 326 million hens over 2021 before the onset of the ongoing 2022 HPAI epornitic. As of June 18^th the national flock attained 286.8 million, approximately 39 million (-11.9 percent) below the pre-HPAI level. Unpredictable factors affecting flock size and hence price will include consumer demand influenced by recently lower shelf prices and the extent of anticipated losses during the late fall through early winter of this year.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 2.0 percent of total production over the first quarter of 2025 did not materially affect the domestic price. Future export volume will be constrained by high domestic prices, international competition and disease-related embargos.

The USDA forecast for 2026 includes production of 7,875 million dozen, up an optimistic 6.8 percent from 2025. Projected consumption will be 274.4 eggs per capita. This forecast presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets. These are both speculative assumptions in the absence of approved vaccination in high-risk areas. The increase, if it were to become reality would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $2.16 per dozen compared to the 2025 value of $4.05 per dozen, corresponding to a loss situation.

Updated June 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses.

Sources:  1. Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18^th 2025