OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the September 12^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #664, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were updated from previous editions. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage planted, recent annual crop yields, the latest crop progress reports, data relating to domestic use and predictions of the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence exports.

The September WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 90.0 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 80.3 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The September WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 186.7 bushels per acre, down 1.1 percent from 188.8 bushels per acre noted in August. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 53.5 bushels per acre down 0.2 percent from August. By comparison yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

As of September 7^th the USDA Crop Progress Report documented 95 percent of the corn crop had attained the dent stage, 25 percent was mature and 4 percent had been harvested. With respect to condition, 65 percent was classified as “good” or “excellent” combined, compared to 64 percent for the corresponding week in 2024. The September 8^th Report confirmed that 97 percent of the soybean crop had set pods and 21 percent was dropping leaves. With respect to condition, 64 percent was classified as “good” or “excellent” combined, compared to 65 percent for the corresponding week in 2024.

The September WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was reduced 0.3 percent from August to 2,110 million bushels. The September USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was up 3.4 percent from August to 300 million bushels due to increased supply and lower exports.

The September WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 390 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was reduced 10 cents to 1,000 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged from August at $280 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers and especially corn growers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the September 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impact of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the 2024-2025 and current market year.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were updated from the August WASDE, influenced by data on crop progress, actual acreage planted and trade figures. The September WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,815 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from August to 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs in fall months. Projected corn exports were raised 3.5 percent to 2,975 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,110 million bushels or 11.6 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the September WASDE report was 390 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on September 12^th after the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 428 cents per bushel, 9.7 percent above the USDA projection and 8.6 percent above the August 12^th CME price.

SEPTEMBER 2025 WASDE #664 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 390 cents per bushel. (unchanged from August WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Production parameters for soybeans were updated from the August WASDE, influenced by crop progress data and acreage planted. The September WASDE Report projected a 2025 yield of 53.5 bushels per acre but with reduced acreage planted compared to 2024. The September WASDE projected the soybean crop to be 4,301 million bushels. Crush volume was increased only 0.6 percent from August to 2,555 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were reduced 1.2 percent to 1,685 million bushels based on the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 300 million bushels, up 3.5 percent from the August WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE September projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was reduced 10 cents per bushel from August to 1,000 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on September 12^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,045 cents per bushel, 4.5 percent above the September USDA projection and 1.3 percent above the August 12^th CME price.

SEPTEMBER 2025 WASDE #664 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,000 cents per bushel (down 10 cents per bushel from August)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were adjusted from August. Production will attain 60.2 million tons, up 0.6 percent consistent with the 0.6 percent increased soybean crush volume of 2,555 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,675 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.2 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $280 unchanged from the August WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 16H00 EDT on September 12^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $288 per ton, up 2.9 percent compared to the September WASDE projection of $280 per ton and down 1.4 percent from the August CME price.

 SEPTEMBER 2025 WASDE #664 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $280 per ton  )unchanged from August 2025)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the August 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 24.9 million tons higher to 1.572 billion.

This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending

stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down reflecting cuts to the EU and

Serbia that are partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. For the EU and Serbia

extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe during the month of July reduces yield

prospects. Area is also lowered for the EU. Ukraine production is raised on greater area. Canada

is higher reflecting an increase in yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2025/26 is

reduced with a decline for Uruguay”.

“Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for the United

States and Ukraine but reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, the

EU, Egypt, Colombia, and Turkey but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down,

reflecting declines for China, Indonesia, and the EU that are partly offset by increases for

Ukraine and Egypt. Global corn stocks, at 282.6 million tons, are up 10.4 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 oilseed production is lowered 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million mainly on lower

soybean, sunflower seed, and cottonseed production. Global sunflower seed production is

lowered 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million on hot and dry weather conditions leading to lower yields for the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia”.

“Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production for 2025/26 is lowered mainly on lower production for the

United States and Serbia. Exports are reduced for the United States but raised for Argentina and

Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are reduced

1.2 million tons to 124.9 million on lower stocks for Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the

United States.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)