OVERVIEW

The USDA was unable to release the October World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) due to the Federal shutdown. The Agency is to be commended on producing the current edition within days of resuming activities. WASDE #665 provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans from the September 12^th WASDE #664, reflecting the 2025 crop. Determination of crop size and ending stocks is derived from actual harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The November WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop was harvested from an expanded 90.0 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop was harvested from a reduced 80.3 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The November WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was estimated at 186.0 bushels per acre, down 0.4 percent from 186.7 bushels per acre predicted in September. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The estimated value for soybean yield was 53.0 bushels per acre down 0.5 percent from the September value of 53.6 bushels per acre. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

The November WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was increased by 2.1 percent from September to 2,154 million bushels. The November USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 3.4 percent from September to 290 million bushels consistent with lower supply and exports.

The November WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 400 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was increased to 1,050 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was raised $20 per ton from September to $300 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest higher feed costs for livestock and poultry producers especially if promised exports materialize. Row crop farmers including corn growers will benefit from increased prices. In some areas corn will however be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and per bushel prices. It is inevitable that extensive support will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the November 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impact of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the 2024-2025 and current market year to date.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were updated from the November WASDE, influenced by actual harvest data projections of domestic use and trade figures. The November WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,752 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from September at 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs in fall and winter months. Projected corn exports were raised 3.4 percent to 3,075 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,154 million bushels or 11.8 percent of projected availability.

he forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the November WASDE report was 400 cents per bushel. At close of trading on November 18^th after the noon November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 448 cents per bushel, 12.0 percent above the USDA projection and 5.0 percent above the September 12^th CME price.

SEPTEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 400 cents per bushel. (up 10 cents per bushel from the September WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were updated from the September WASDE, as influenced by harvest data and predicted exports. The November WASDE Report projected a 2025 yield of 53.0 bushels per acre and with reduced area of 81.1 million acres planted compared to 2024. The November WASDE determined the soybean crop to be 4,590 million bushels. Crush volume was retained from September at 2,555 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were reduced 3.0 percent to 1,635 million bushels based on the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 290 million bushels, down 3.3 percent from the September WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The November USDA WASDE projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was raised 50 cents per bushel from September to 1,050 cents per bushel. At close of trading on November 18^th following the noon, November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,051 cents per bushel, 9.6 percent above the November USDA projection and 10.1 percent above the September 14^th CME price.

NOVEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,050 cents per bushel (Up 50 cents per bushel from September)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were retained from September. Production will attain 60.2 million tons, consistent with the static soybean crush volume of 2,555 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41.7 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.2 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 up $20 per ton from the September WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At close of trading on 18^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $328 per ton, up 9.3 percent compared to the November WASDE projection of $300 per ton and up 13.8 percent from the September CME price.

NOVEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $300 per ton up $20 per ton from September 2025)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico production is raised reflecting greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine that are partly offset by a cut for the United Kingdom. Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the United States and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine.

Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global oilseed production for 2025/26 is lowered this month mainly on lower soybean and sunflower production partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 4.1 million tons on lower output for the United States, Ukraine, and India. Sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.0 million tons on lower production for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey; partly offsetting is higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina. Global rapeseed production is raised 1.3 million tons on higher production for the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and the UK.

The global 2025/26 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks and production, reduced crush, slightly higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons due to updates to 2024/25 balance sheets. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are lowered for the United States, the EU, and Argentina but higher for Brazil and China. EU ending stocks are lowered due to higher crush. Argentina’s 2024/25 balance sheet shows higher exports and crush leading to lower stocks. Brazil’s 2024/25 balance sheet includes higher production, increased 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million, reflecting estimates by CONAB and utilization data to date. As a result of reported data to date, Brazil’s 2024/25 crush, exports, and ending stocks are raised. China’s 2024/25 ending stocks are increased due to higher imports that are partly offset by higher crush. Global soybean crush for 2025/26 is reduced 1.7 million tons to 365.0 million. Crush is reduced for India on the lower crop. Crush is reduced for Argentina on lower supplies due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports. Partly offsetting is a 1-million-ton increase to Brazilian crush to 59 million tons, raised in line with the higher crush estimate for the previous marketing year. Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are increased 0.2 million tons to 188.0 million. Exports are raised0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the United States and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the United States, the EU, Ukraine, and India partly offset by higher stocks for China”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)