OVERVIEW

Understandably the February 11^th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #668 projecting the 2026 season was little changed from the previous January 12^th edition. Crop size and ending stocks were selected from previous harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The February WASDE report projected that the 2026 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 91.3 million acres, (90.0 million acres in 2025). The soybean crop will be harvested from an almost unchanged 80.4 million acres, (80.3 million acres in 2025).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2026 corn crop was held at 186.5 bushels per acre. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was retained at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2025 reflecting previous harvests. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the 2024 crop.

The February WASDE projection for the 2026 ending stock of corn was lowered by100 million bushels 4.5 percent) from January to 2,127 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the 2026 ending stock of soybeans was unchanged from January at 350 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

The February WASDE retained the projected corn price for the 2026-2027 market year to an average of 410 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged at $295 per ton.

USDA commodity prices suggest rising feed costs for livestock and poultry producers given projections for yields, domestic use and the prospect of increased exports. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced a “bridging” allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

 Projections for world output included in the February 2026 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also consider the impact of weather patterns arising from Southern Oscillation events especially on these nations and their neighbors.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans since the 2024-2025 market year extending into the current year.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the January WASDE, reflecting the predicted yield, and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The February WASDE Report projected a 2026 crop of 17,021 million bushels, compared to 16,752 million bushels for the previous 2025 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged for 2026 at 6,200 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,370 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs during winter months. Projected corn exports were raised to 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be down 100 million bushels to 2,127 million bushels or 11.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the WASDE report was 410 cents per bushel. At close of trading after the noon February 11^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 429 cents per bushel, 4.6 percent above the USDA projection and 1.9 percent above the January 12^th CME price.

FEBRUARY 2026 WASDE #668 Summary for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 410 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were retained from the January WASDE to reflect the 2026 crop. Yield of 53.0 bushels per acre was held but with an area of 81.2 million acres planted compared to 2025. The February WASDE retained the projection for the 2026 soybean crop at 4,262 million bushels. Crush volume was held at 2,570 million bushels consistent with anticipated demand and industry capacity. Projected exports were retained at 1,575 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 350 million bushels. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The January USDA projection for the ex-farm seasonal price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. At close of trading on February 11^th following the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,129 cents per bushel, 1.7 percent above the February USDA projection and 7.5 percent above the January 12^th CME price, reflecting prospects of higher exports.

FEBRUARY 2026 WASDE #668 Summary for the 2026 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,020 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were unchanged from the January WASDE. Production will be up to 60.8 million tons, consistent with the retained soybean crush volume of 2,570 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 42.0 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.4 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $295 per ton, unchanged from the January WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

At close of trading on January 12^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $298 per ton, up $3 per ton (1.0 percent) compared to the USDA projection of $295 per ton and down 1.0 percent from the December 9^th CME price.

FEBRUARY 2026 WASDE #668 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

Quantities in thousand short tons

Average Price ex plant:$295 per ton (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2026 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is virtually unchanged at 1.590 billion tons. The 2025/26 foreign coarse grain supply and use outlook is essentially unchanged relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down fractionally as a decline for Mexico is mostly offset by an increase for the EU. Barley production is raised for Argentina but lowered for Turkey”. 

“Corn exports for 2025/26 are raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Corn imports are higher for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon, and Vietnam but lowered for the EU. Barley exports are raised for Argentina and Russia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher reflecting increases for Ukraine and Iran partly offset by a decline for Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 289.0 million tons, are down 1.9 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 soybean supply and use forecasts include increased production, crush, and ending stocks. Production for Brazil is raised 2.0 million tons to 180.0 million on higher area and yield, reflecting beneficial weather throughout the season and state-level reporting.  Production for Paraguay is increased 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million on favorable rainfall over the season”.

“Soybean crush is raised for Brazil and Paraguay driven by higher global soybean meal demand, particularly for the EU based on import pace to date. Similar to the United States, growth in EU oilseed meal demand grew substantially in 2024/25 due to competitive prices. In 2025/26, the growth is expected to moderate with a higher share of rapeseed meal given the recovery of the crop this marketing year.

China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans. Global soybean import demand is nearly unchanged from last month, so therefore if China bought more from the United States, global soybean exports will likely be shifted with more U.S. shipments to China and less to other markets”.

‘Global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.1 million tons to 125.5 million on higher stocks for Brazil. Another notable revision is higher 2025/26 palm oil production for Malaysia, up 0.5 million tons to 20.2 million”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)