OVERVIEW

Understandably the March 10^th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #669 projecting the 2026 season was little changed from the previous February 11^th edition given that planting has not commenced. Crop size and ending stocks were selected from previous harvest data, projections for domestic use and the probable effects of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The March WASDE report projected that the 2026 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 91.3 million acres, (90.0 million acres in 2025). The soybean crop will be harvested from an almost unchanged 80.4 million acres, (80.3 million acres in 2025).

The March WASDE yield value for the 2026 corn crop was held at 186.5 bushels per acre. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was retained at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2025 reflecting previous harvests. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the 2024 crop.

The March WASDE projection for the 2026 ending stock of corn was unchanged at 2,127 million bushels. The March USDA projection for the 2026 ending stock of soybeans was unchanged since January at 350 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

The March WASDE retained the projected corn price for the 2026-2027 market year to an average of 410 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was increased by $5 to $300 per ton.

USDA commodity prices suggest rising feed costs for livestock and poultry producers given projections for yields, domestic use and the prospect of increased exports. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced a “bridging” allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

Projections for world output included in the March 2026 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also consider the impact of weather patterns arising from Southern Oscillation events especially on these nations and their neighbors.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans since the 2024-2025 market year extending into the current year.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the February WASDE, reflecting the predicted yield, and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The March WASDE Report projected a 2026 crop of 17,021 million bushels, compared to 16,752 million bushels for the previous 2025 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged for 2026 at 6,200 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,370 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs during winter months. Projected corn exports were raised to 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be down 100 million bushels to 2,127 million bushels or 11.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the WASDE report was 410 cents per bushel. At 11H45 EDT on March 11^th after the noon March 10^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 457 cents per bushel, 11.5 percent above the USDA projection and 6.9 percent above the February 11^th CME price.

MARCH 2026 WASDE #669 Summary for the 2026 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 410 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were generally retained from the February WASDE other than the additional import of 5 million bushels to a total of 25 million bushels. Yield of 53.0 bushels per acre was held but with an area of 81.2 million acres planted compared to 2025. The March WASDE retained the projection for the 2026 soybean crop at 4,262 million bushels. Crush volume was increased by 5 million bushels to 2,575 million bushels consistent with anticipated demand and industry capacity. Projected exports were retained at 1,575 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 350 million bushels. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The March USDA projection for the ex-farm seasonal price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. At 11H45 EDT on March 11^th following the noon release of the WASDE the previous day, the CME spot price was 1,225 cents per bushel, 20.1 percent above the March USDA projection and 8.5 percent above the February 11^th CME price, reflecting prospects of higher exports.

MARCH 2026 WASDE #669 Summary for the 2026 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,020 cents per bushel. (Unchanged since the January WASDE)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were changed from the February WASDE. Production will be 0.5 percent higher to 61.1 million tons, consistent with the increased soybean crush volume of 2,575 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 42.4 million tons, 12.5 percent higher than for the February WASDE. Exports were estimated at 19.4 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 per ton, up $5 from the February WASDE as an average of $300 per ton for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

At 11H45 EDT on March 11^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $315 per ton, up $15 per ton (5.0 percent) compared to the USDA projection of $300 per ton and up 5.0 percent from the February 11^th CME price.

 March 2026 WASDE #669 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

Quantities in thousand short tons

Average Price ex plant:$300 per ton (Up $5 per ton from the February WASDE)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2026 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, greater trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for Ukraine and Brazil are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Ukraine is raised based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service. Brazil is higher on an increase for first crop area. Argentina is lowered as dryness during February reduces yield prospects. Foreign barley production is raised, with an increase for

Australia partly offset by a decline for Ukraine”. 

“Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for India. For 2024/25, based on observed shipments to date Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher while Argentina is reduced. Corn imports for 2025/26 are raised for Vietnam and the Philippines but lowered for India. Barley exports are raised for Australia with greater imports expected for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine, and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 292.8 million tons, are up 3.8 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 oilseed production is raised 1.8 million tons on higher sunflower seed, rapeseed, and cottonseed production, partly offset by lower soybean production. Sunflower seed production is raised for Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan while rapeseed is increased for Australia and Kazakhstan. Global soybean production is reduced on lower production for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 48 million on a lower yield partly offset by higher area. Ukraine production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million on lower area”.

“Global 2025/26 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran, and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine”. 

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)