On March 16^th 2026 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2024 with an updated projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous February 2026 report.

Projected egg production for 2025 was adjusted downward from 7,797 million dozen in 2024 by 3.8 percent to 7,497 million dozen due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI. Heavy losses occurred during Q1 2025 with incident cases extending through December totaling 46 million hens for the year. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2025 will be 263.8 eggs, down 9.0 egg equivalents (-3.3 percent) from 2024. The projected average 2025 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 70.6 cents per dozen (23.3 percent) over 2024 to 373.7cents per dozen. On March 13^th the NYC price was 186 cents per dozen reflecting both increased supply and pre-Easter demand in that market up 45 percent in a week. Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing stable inflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of lower prices for eggs compared to Q1 of 2025, even with retailers maintaining high margins and failing to pass on savings to consumers.

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletion commenced in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 1.0 million per week offset by losses due to depopulation. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and for some producers, by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40 million layers depleted during 2024, 46 million in 2025 and 17 million year-to-date, but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. Effective March 11^th the total national flock attained 305.0 million, approximately 21 million (-6.4 percent) below the pre-HPAI level. The productive flock was estimated by the USDA to be 297.0 million on March 11^th. All cage-free and organic flocks during February 2026 attained 146.7 million or 48.1 percent of the total. In their March report the Egg Industry Center projected an optimistic total flock of 322.0 million at the end of December 2026. Unpredictable factors affecting flock size and hence price will include consumer demand as influenced by recently lower shelf prices for generic eggs and the extent of possible losses during the spring and fall months of the current year.

Exports of both shell eggs and products at approximately 2.0 percent of total production over 2025 attained 131.1 million dozen shell-egg equivalents. This was offset by imports of 114.1 shell egg-equivalents. Exports did not materially affect the domestic price. The U.S. has once again become a net exporter of egg products and shell eggs amounting to 17.3 million shell-egg equivalents in 2025. Future export volume will be encouraged by low domestic prices and by the needs of importing nations but will be constrained by international competition and disease-related embargos.

The USDA forecast for 2026 includes production of 7,855 million dozen, up an optimistic 4.8 percent from 2025. Projected consumption will be 271.6 eggs per capita. This forecast presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets. These are both speculative assumptions in the absence of approved vaccination in high-risk areas. The increase, if it were to become reality would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $1.18 per dozen compared to the 2025 value of $3.74 per dozen for conventional Large white-shelled product in cartons.

Updated March 2026 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses.

Source:   Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released March 16^th 2026