EGG‑NEWS.com

OVERVIEW

The USDA projected values for the production of corn and soybeans in the September 12^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #640 reflecting 2023 new-crop values. These were revised given the stage of crops and were based on actual area planted, long-term projections and recent U.S. weather, influenced by a transition to an El Nino, carry-forward levels from 2022, export projections and ending stocks.

With respect to the World situation it is evident that the 2023 harvest of all crops in Ukraine, a major World supplier, will be reduced by at least one third compared with pre-invasion values. The situation in Ukraine has no short-term prospect for resolution.

The September 12^th 2023 WASDE report projected corn and soybean harvest data for the 2023 season. Corn will be harvested from 87.1 million acres, up 0.9 percent from the 86.3 million acres in the August WASDE. Soybeans will be harvested from 82.5 million acres, down 0.1 percent from the 82.7 million acres in the August WASDE report.

The September 2023 WASDE yield value for the new corn crop was lowered 0.7 percent from the August report to 173.8 bushels per acre from 175.1 bushels per acre due to the effect of the transitory severe drought in June and inadequate rainfall thereafter in many areas. By comparison yield was 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022. The estimate of soybean yield was reduced 1.6 percent to 50.1 bushels per acre from 50.9 bushels per acre in the August WASDE and compared to 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022.

The September 2023 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was predicted to attain 2,221 million bushels, up 0.9 percent from 2,202 million bushels. Exports of 2,050 million bushels were unchanged from August but may be overstated for the new crop. The USDA forecast an ending stock of soybeans at 220 million bushels down 10.5 percent due to lower acreage planted and a reduction in yield.

The September 2023 WASDE held the ex-farm price of corn at $4.90 per bushel for the new crop. The projected price for soybeans was raised 20 cents to 1,290 cents per bushel from the August WASDE. Soybean Meal was unchanged at $380 per ton. The USDA price projections for corn, soybeans and soybean meal deviated as expected from the September 12^th CME futures quotations for September delivery.

Projections included in the September 2023 WASDE report reflect the most recent estimates of commodity production in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from hostilities in Ukraine with occupation of 20 percent of the Nation’s land area by the Russian Federation and following extensive destruction of infrastructure. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages. Exports from Ukraine will be restricted by the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative followed by destruction of Black Sea and Danube delta port installations by the Russian Federation.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. corn during the current market year despite drought and taking into effect relaxation of COVID restrictions on consumer and demand.

Reports on volumes of commodities exported are included in weekly editions of EGG-NEWS, derived from published USDA-FAS data.

CORN

Based on yield and acreage projections the corn harvest for 2023 was estimated at 15,134 million bushels compared to 13,730 million bushels in 2022. The U.S. 2023 harvest is projected to be 0.1 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels but this will depend on favorable weather until completion of the season. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from August at 5,625 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” Category was unchanged at 5,300 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and other blends. Gasoline consumption is restrained by prevailing high prices, general inflation and changes in commuting patterns persisting from COVID restrictions. Projected corn exports were retained from August at 2,050 million bushels, based on recent orders, the volume of projected shipments to China and Mexico and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and drought in Argentine. Ending stocks in the September WASDE were raised 0.9 percent to 2,221 million bushels.

The forecast USDA farm price for corn in the September12^th 2023 WASDE Report for the new crop was unchanged at 490 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on September 12^th after release of the September WASDE the CME quotation for September delivery was 464 cents per bushel, down 2.3 percent from the quotation of August 11^th for August delivery and 5.3 percent below the September USDA projection.

September 2024 WASDE #640 Projections For The 2023 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 490 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the August WASDE Report reflecting the 2023 crop)

SOYBEANS

Based on actual planting data and crop progress the USDA projected the 2023 soybean crop at 4,146 million bushels with an estimated yield of 50.1 bushels per acre from 82.8 million acres harvested. Crush volume was reduced 0.4 percent from the August WASDE to 2,290 million bushels with projected exports down 1.9 percent to 1,790 million bushels. Ending stocks were projected to be 220 million bushels down 10.2 percent from the August WASDE.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current 2023-2024 market year. This is attributed to a presumption of lower requirements for animal feed despite relaxation of previous strict COVID restrictions. In reality traders in China are obligated to order on a stable or declining market unless faced with shortages. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA September 2023 projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2023 harvest was raised 20 cents per bushel from the August WASDE to 1,290 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on September 12^th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for September 2023 delivery was 1,343 cents per bushel, up 0.5 percent compared to the August 11^th quotation for August delivery and 4.1 percent higher than the September 2023 WASDE projection of 1,290 cents per bushel.

SEPTEMBER 2023 WASDE #640 PROJECTION FOR THE 2023 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,290 cents per bushel (Up 20 cents per bushel from the August 2023 WASDE Report)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2023 crop will be 53.98 million tons, down 0.4 from the August WASDE and consistent with a reduced crush of 2,290 million bushels of soybeans. Production is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was lowered 0.8 percent to 39.4 million tons. Exports were up 0.7 percent to 15.1 million tons. The USDA retained the ex plant price of soybean meal at $380 per ton as an average for the 2023-2024 season based on supply to demand considerations reflected in an unchanged ending stock of 400,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

At 14H00 on September 12^th the CME quotation for September 2023 delivery of soybean meal was $407 per ton, down 0.7 percent compared to the August 11^th CME quotation and $25 per ton or 7.1 percent higher than the September 2023 WASDE projection of $380 per ton.

SEPTEMBER 2023 WASDE #640 PROJECTION OF SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$380 per ton (Unchanged from the August 2023 WASDE Report reflecting the 2023 season)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest increasing production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the September WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, marginally lower trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is virtually unchanged with an increase for Ukraine largely offset by a decline for the EU. Ukraine corn production is raised on an increase in yield expectations, while EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for France and Bulgaria that are partly offset by an increase for Germany. Foreign barley production is reduced on a decline for Canada that is partly offset by larger production for Russia”.

“Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2023/24 include lower barley exports for Canada with a partly offsetting increase for Russia. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised 2.5 million tons to 257.6 million, reflecting increases for Brazil, Mexico, Ukraine, and China that are partially offset by a decline for Argentina. World corn ending stocks at 314.0 million tons are up 2.9 million relative to last month”.

OILSEEDS:

“Foreign 2023/24 oilseed production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 538.7 million mainly on lower rapeseed production for Canada and the EU, lower sunflower seed production for the EU, and lower cottonseed production for India. Partly offsetting is higher sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed production for Ukraine. The canola crop for Canada is lowered 0.8 million tons to 18.2 million, reflecting recent government reports and drought conditions in the southwestern Prairies during the growing season”.

“Global 2023/24 soybean crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 327.7 million on lower crush for Argentina, Pakistan, the EU, Thailand, and the United States. Argentina’s crush is reduced 1.8 million tons to 34.5 million on lower expected supplies over the next several months prior to next year’s harvest. China’s crush is raised 1.0 million tons to 96.0 million in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year”.

“Global soybean exports are reduced 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million as lower U.S. exports are partly offset by higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine. Imports are reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, the EU, and Indonesia. Conversely, China’s imports for 2022/23 and 2023/24 are increased on higher crush demand and large shipments from Brazil that are expected to continue into the next marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million”.

*Values rounded to billion metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)