In a recent interview Stephen Vaden, Deputy Secretary of Agriculture acknowledged the increasing incidence rate of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) especially affecting turkey and egg production.  It is apparent that USDA is justifiably promoting biosecurity as an essential but sole component of prevention through a program of farm audits.  Producers are encouraged to use the resources of USDA to identify deficiencies in either structural or operational biosecurity and to effect improvements. 

In his interview Vaden stated that “vaccination isn’t available yet.” This is completely wrong and an institutional USDA self-delusion.  Major EU biopharmaceutical companies offer a range of vaccines of proven efficacy ranging from conventional inactivated oil emulsion preparations to advanced live, modified vector vaccines suitable for mass administration by in ovo injection

Vaden points to the “Poultry Innovation Grand Challenge” funding 58 projects to combat avian influenza. He further indicated that “vaccine development and rollout will take time”.  Again, this is a manifestation of USDA policy of temporizing or opposing immunization as an additional modality in the face of a prolonged U.S. epornitic.

Effectively the USDA continues to make appropriate noises about vaccination but appears to be delaying a decision under duress that deploying vaccines against HPAI would impact export of broiler leg quarters. The World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH) has approved vaccination as an adjunct to control and prevent the ongoing HPAI pandemic. Notwithstanding  the official position of the Agency, the USDA remains recalcitrant to consider a change in policy to allow controlled, tactical immunization of egg production and turkey flocks in high-risk areas accompanied by high levels of biosecurity and with appropriate surveillance.

USDA should accept reality in that:-

• HPAI is endemic in the migratory waterfowl and marine populations of the world,
• The infection will simply not ‘go away’
• Ongoing HPAI represents a cost to consumers, the public sector and producers far exceeding the value of the potential loss of export revenue from leg quarters
• HPAI is transmitted inter alia by the airborne route effectively invalidating even the strictest biosecurity measures
• Many importing nations accept the WOAH principles of controlled vaccination with surveillance, regionalization and compartmentalization
• H5 HPAI is potentially zoonotic

This December pre-IPPE edition of EGG-NEWS is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA.  In addition to industry news and available statistics new products to be released at the IPPE are detailed.  The commitment of the Company to innovation in design and construction of equipment will benefit the poultry industry through enhancing efficiency.  Subscribers can access www.bigdutchman.com for additional information and specifications for the range of new products as featured.

OVERVIEW

Understandably the December 9^th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #666 was little changed with respect to corn and soybeans from the post-shutdown November 18^th edition reflecting the 2025 crop. Crop size and ending stocks were derived from actual harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The December WASDE report reconfirmed that the 2025 corn crop was harvested from an expanded 90.0 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop was harvested from a reduced 80.3 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The December WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was retained at 186.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from November. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was held at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from November reflecting harvest data. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

The December WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was lowered by 5.8 percent from November to 2,029 million bushels. The December USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was unchanged from November at 290 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

The December WASDE retained the projected corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 400 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was held at 1,050 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged from November at $300 per ton.

USDA commodity prices suggest higher feed costs for livestock and poultry producers especially if promised exports materialize. Farmers including corn growers will then benefit from increased prices. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced an allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

Projections for world output included in the December 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impact of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the 2024-2025 market year and the current year to date.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the November WASDE, reflecting actual harvest data and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The December WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,752 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from September at 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs in late fall and winter months. Projected corn exports were raised 4.1 percent to 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,029 million bushels or 11.1 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the December WASDE report was 400 cents per bushel. At close of trading after the noon November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 448 cents per bushel, 12.0 percent above the USDA projection but unchanged from the November 18^th CME price.

DECEMBER 2025 WASDE #666 Summary for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 400 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the December WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were retained from the November WASDE, with a 2025 yield of 53.0 bushels per acre but with a reduced area of 81.1 million acres planted compared to 2024. The December WASDE retained the soybean crop at 4,254 million bushels. Crush volume was held from November at 2,555 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were held at 1,635 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 290 million bushels, unchanged from the November WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The December USDA WASDE projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was unchanged from November at 1,050 cents per bushel. At close of trading on December 9^th following the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,088 cents per bushel, 3.6 percent above the December USDA projection and 3.5 percent below the November 18^th CME price.

DECEMBER 2025 WASDE #666 Summary for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,050 cents per bushel (Unchanged from November)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were retained from the November WASDE. Production will attain 60.2 million tons, consistent with the unchsnged soybean crush volume of 2,555 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41.7 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.2 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 unchanged from the November WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At close of trading on December 9^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $301 per ton, up $1 per ton (0.3 percent) compared to the December WASDE projection of $300 per ton and down 8.2 percent from the November 18^th CME price.

DECEMBER 2025 WASDE #666 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$300 per ton (Unchanged from the November WASDE)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the December 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast down slightly to 1.576 billion tons. The

2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and higher ending stocks

relative to last month. Foreign corn production is cut with declines for Ukraine, Canada,

Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal partially offset by increases for the EU, Russia, and

Zimbabwe. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield

based on reported government data to date, where harvest has been slow as a result of wet

conditions in key growing areas. Canada corn is reduced based on the latest information

from Statistics Canada. The EU is raised reflecting increases for Spain, Hungary, Romania,

and Poland. Foreign barley production is higher with increases for Canada, the EU, and

Australia”.

“Corn exports for 2025/26 are raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Corn

imports are higher for Colombia with cuts for the EU and Zimbabwe. Barley exports are

raised for Australia, Canada, and the EU while Ukraine is reduced. Foreign corn ending

stocks are higher based on an increase for Argentina partly offset by declines for Ukraine

and Canada. Global corn stocks, at 279.2 million tons, are down 2.2 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global oilseed production for 2025/26 is raised this month, driven mainly by higher rapeseed, peanut, and soybean production, partially offset by lower sunflowerseed output. Global rapeseed production is raised 3.0 million tons, with increases for Canada, Australia, and Russia. Canada has the largest increase, up 2.0 million tons to a record 22.0 million, based on the latest Statistics Canada report. Higher rapeseed production is mostly offset by lower global sunflowerseed production, down 2.5 million tons on harvest results for Ukraine and Russia. Current and historical peanut production is raised for Nigeria on official area data.

The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and raised ending stocks.”

“Global soybean production is increased 0.8 million tons to 422.5 million, reflecting higher crops for Russia and India but lower output for Canada and Ukraine. Global soybean crush for 2025/26 is increased 0.3 million tons to 365.2 million, mainly on higher supplies in Russia and India. Global soybean exports are lowered 0.3 million tons on lower shipments for Ukraine and Benin. Imports are reduced for Japan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia but raised for Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Russia”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

Dr. Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, Medical Director of the Respiratory Infections Center  at the Pasteur Institute recently expressed her concern over the possible emergence of H5N1 avian influenza as a pandemic virus.  The Pasteur Institute was at the forefront of research on the virology and epidemiology of COVID-19 and is an established World Health Organization reference center for influenza.

It is emphasized that at this time H5N1 infection is mainly confined to wild bird and commercial poultry populations with spillover to marine and some terrestrial mammals.  There is no evidence of widespread infection of humans and most importantly no record of human-to-human transmission.  This property of the virus would be a prerequisite for emergence of an epidemic or pandemic strain.  Despite extensive exposure of populations in close contact with poultry, there have been less than 1,000 confirmed outbreaks of H5N1 and other avian strains among humans over the past 20 years.  Most cases occurred in Asia although with a high fatality rate especially among children and the elderly with intercurrent predisposing conditions.   

Dr. Rameix-Welti noted that a “bird flu pandemic would probably be quite severe potentially even more disruptive than the pandemic (COVID-19) we experienced.”  She noted that most world populations have antibodies to H1 and H3 seasonal influenza but lack protection against H5.  Although there is concern over a potential H5 pandemic, officials at the World Organization for Animal Health consider the risk low but stress the need for preparation.  This sentiment is endorsed by Dr. Rameix-Welti who pointed to an inventory of antivirals and extensive experience in containment gained during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Implicit in prevention of an outbreak is the need to suppress avian influenza in large commercial flocks.  Intense biosecurity has not materially reduced the incidence of outbreaks but in the U.S. small commercial egg units in the Midwest are impacted in addition to turkey growing farms and in backyard flocks across all four migratory flyways.

Given the persistence of seasonal outbreaks, the susceptibility of commercial poultry, concentration in limited geographic areas there is ample opportunity for mutations to occur among circulating H5N1viruses. Both point mutations and recombinant events could result in an ability to infect humans and even to establish contagion.  Vaccination of at-risk farms and species would reduce the probability of emergence of a zoonotic strain. 

Preventive vaccination as employed in the E.U., Mexico and other nations in combination with biosecurity is currently opposed by a segment of the industry reliant on exports.  Over the intermediate future, the possible loss of exports should be balanced against the consequences of the low probability of emergence of a zoonotic avian influenza strain although with a catastrophic outcome.  Even over the short term, endemic avian influenza carries a high cost to the public and private sectors and above all as a result of an escalation in shelf prices of eggs and turkey products. This financial burden far outweighs the value of exported broiler leg quarters.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced that Dr. Seth Meyer, Chief Economist, since 2021 will leave the Agency.  He will assume the position of Director of the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, effective January 1, 2026.

His departure will be a loss to the USDA, adding to the loss of research staff and experienced personnel who left the agency after the ill-advised transfer of the Economic Research Service from Washington to Kansas City during the first administration of President Trump. This was followed by the unprecedented layoff of government personnel during the first few months of 2025.

Dr. Meyer was in large measure responsible for compilation and distribution of the monthly World Agriculture Support and Demand Estimates Report a respected and widely used periodical.

It is considered significant that contrary to silence on the recent departures of senior administrators, Brooke Rollins, Secretary of the USDA expressed gratitude for the contributions made by Dr. Meyer and his lasting impact on the Department and U.S. agriculture.

EGG-NEWS along with the poultry industry acknowledges his achievements over an extensive career and anticipates further advances in research, service and teaching in his new position at the University of Missouri.

yHeart a small-scale manufacturer of infant formula, in a market dominated by a few majors, has recalled all products as a result of contamination with spores of Clostridium botulinum. Since August, 31^st 35 cases have been confirmed in infants with at least 70 under investigation.  Fortunately, no fatalities have been reported. The diagnosis is based on clinical observations and is followed by effective available treatment.

Similarities with this case and the major 2022 recall from the Abbott, Sturgis, MI. facility are striking.  At issue is the failure of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to effectively monitor production plants and to enforce either corrective action or closure.  The most recent investigation disclosed three isolations of Clostridium spores from 36 unopened containers suggesting a high level of contamination in the Allerton, IA. facility.  Disclosures obtained under the Freedom of Information Act confirmed an unsatisfactory situation with regard to the plant dating back to 2022.  Deficiencies documented in official warning letters included the presence of pests, defective structures including ceilings and floors, failure to maintain an appropriate pathogen surveillance program, incorporation of untested ingredients, previous isolations of Cronobacter and an observation that “the Byheart plant was not designed to facilitate maintenance and sanitary operations”.  It is significant that the company received approximately 2,000 complaints relating mainly to organoleptic quality but also some health-related complaints including nine characterized by the FDA as “sensitive/serious”.

It appears that FDA has not learned anything from the Abbott episode and that the Agency has obvious deficiencies in their oversight of plants manufacturing food products and pharmaceuticals.  Regrettably the Agency has been politicized and there is little hope for practical improvement given the exodus of experienced managers, a deliberate reduction in staff, resignations and retirements all prompted by current policies of the Department of Health and Human Services. The appointment of incompetent or unqualified management based on ideology and conformity with non-scientific principles as expressed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Secretary of the Department suggest future health problems related to failure of the FDA to fulfil the missions detailed and funded by Congress.

A Memorandum of Understanding has been entered into between Ceva Wildlife Research Fund, Ceva Animal Health and National Parks Board of Singapore and Mandai Wildlife Group.  It is intended to vaccinate endangered species against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) given the worldwide prevalence of avian influenza and the vulnerability of the Mandai sanctuary.  The pilot program will include immunization of the most vulnerable species including the white-backed vulture (Gyps africanus), the marbled teal (Marmaronetta angustirostris) and other raptors.  The pilot project will provide details on the immunologic response of recipient birds and will also assist duration of immunity.

The program essentially follows the emergency vaccination of the highly endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) in 2023 preserving this species highly susceptible to avian influenza as a result of consuming carcasses of dead birds.

The Ceva Wildlife Research Fund will spearhead the practical aspects of the program using CEVA vaccines with the Mandai wildlife Group monitoring the health of birds.

Marc Prikazsky chairman and CEO of CEVA Animal Health and also president of CEVA Wildlife Research Fund stated, “This collaboration truly reflects the essence of the One Health approach – bringing together scientific innovation, veterinary knowledge and a commitment to wildlife conservation.

The joint scientific and monitoring committee with representatives of the participants will ensure release of information and publication of data that will benefit poultry health professionals.

In 2022 Sonate Corp. dba Vegadelphia Foods filed a trademark infringement lawsuit against Beyond Meat Inc. and the parent company of Dunkin’ Donuts.  The plaintiffs complained that the Beyond Meat slogan, Great taste, Plant-based was too similar to the registered trademark of Sonate, Where great taste is Plant-based.  Sonate claimed that the infringement interfered with potential joint ventures and impacted company growth. 

The lawsuit was transferred to the jurisdiction of Massachusetts in 2023 with the most recent trial favoring the plaintiff.  The judgement included $24 million in actual damages plus $15 million in profits. Given the perilous financial state of Beyond Meat it is questioned whether Sonate will recover damages.

For Q3 2025 the Company announced a net loss of $110.7 million, (including a charge of $77.4 million) on revenue of $70.2 million. With a negative EPS of ($1.44). For the corresponding Q3 2024bthe Company lost $26.6 million on revenue of $81.0 million with an EPS of ($0.41). Sales declined 13.3 percent and gross margin fell from 17.6 to 13.3 percent in comparing Q3 for the consecutive years.

On a 12-month trailing basis Beyond Meat has attained a negative operating margin of 47 percent and a negative profit margin of 81 percent.  Over 12 months BYND has ranged from $0.50 to $7.60 with a 50-day moving average of $1.68. Before the close on December 2^nd BYND was down over 2 percent to $1.31. Marked volatility is attributed to a succession of ‘short squeezes’ with 20.7 percent of the float short in mid-November.

Following the reluctance of supermarket operators to establish stores in urban areas of Atlanta, Mayor Andre Dickens established a program to locate the Azalea Fresh Market in an available 20,000-square-foot location.  The endeavor required investment of public funds totaling $8 million in cash, grants and loans.  The enterprise is projected to become profitable within three years.  Based on the initial success of the store a second location will be developed for the convenience of residents in ‘supermarket deserts’.  Azalea Fresh Market offers fruit, vegetables and dairy products in addition to essentials but lacks the frills of a modern suburban supermarket.

NY Mayor-elect Zohran Mandani proposed establishing city-supported grocery stores as part of his successful campaign although the concept was not expanded to a specific program or plan of action.

Although many cities have proposed and implemented subsidized markets under civic ownership, theft and other crimes have impacted community support and few have attained profitability or even survived.  Various models have been attempted including support by cities in the form of loans and operation free of rent and taxes.  Established supermarket chains have   developed stores in underserved inter-city areas of metropolitan areas including Chicago without success leading to closure.

To be viable, public-supported grocery stores and supermarkets require professional management but above all community support to establish a crime-free environment.

A recent epidemiologic study demonstrated that vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) can be infected with H5N1 avian influenza virus.  The study conducted in Peru differentiated between two locations of bats reflecting coastal and inland communities.  Bats preying on marine mammals and birds demonstrated antibodies to the virus only after the epidemic among marine mammals. There was little evidence of sustained transmission among bats in the implicated colony with only eight percent showing seroconversion.  Inland bats that prey on livestock did not show antibodies to H5N1.   

Bat species including flying foxes (Pteropus giganteus) acquired H5N1 in Bangladesh during 2023. In this report the frugivorous bats were in all probability infected by cohabitation with affected crows.

In laboratory investigations complementary to the field studies in Peru the research team at The University of Glasgow demonstrated that H5 antigen binds to respiratory tissue of vampire bats Bat-derived lung, liver and kidney cell preparations supported growth of avian and mammalian H5 clade 2.3.4.4b virus.

In commenting on the significance of the study on vampire bats Dr. Richard Webby, a prominent virologist affiliated to St. Jude Childrens’ Research hospital noted that the findings “were not something we should get too worried about”. He added “Anytime we find H5N1 in a different species or a different route of infection, that increases the pandemic risk”. 

Tu, I-Ting. Spillover of H5 influenza virus to vampire bats at the marine-terrestrial interface.  bioRXiv doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.09.686930

In an exercise in judicial theater, James Uthmeier, Attorney General of the State of Florida announced an investigation into the source of chicken in Campbell’s Company products.  The Consumer Protection Division of the Florida agency will spearhead the unnecessary effort.

The Florida action arises from revelations in a lawsuit initiated by Plaintiff. Robert Garza, who is suing Campbell for employment discrimination. In a clandestine recording entered into evidence, the discredited and since terminated Vice President Martin Bally the former Chief Information Security Officer, deprecated both Campbell’s products and consumers and claimed that the company was incorporating “bio-engineered meat” in soups.

This statement should have been dismissed as simple puffery and uninformed hyperbole.  In the first instance, bio-engineered chicken is not available in commercial quantities.  The second indication of improbability, is that the cost of any bio-engineered meat would far exceed the natural product, obviously disfavoring use.

It would appear that the Office of the Attorney General is pursuing an obvious slander to generate partisan publicity and to create the illusion of enforcing state legislation banning production and sale of non-available laboratory-produced meat. Surely there are more substantive issues to consider in the State.  In a legal environment dominated by ideology, logic is the evident loser.

In a December 3^rd announcement, Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM) announced investment of $15 million in Echo Lake Foods.  Capital assigned will allow installation of equipment for scrambled egg production, consolidating this process in an efficient plant with an output of 17 million pounds annually.  Previously Cal-Maine Foods committed $15 million to a high-speed pancake line with an ultimate capacity of 12 million pounds. Joint venture Crepini Foods will receive $7 million through fiscal 2028 to add 18 million pounds to annual production over a two-year period.

The combined investment will increase production capacity of further-processed high-value egg products by 30 percent over the proximal two years. This is consistent with the dominant position of Cal-Maine Foods as the U.S. and the world’s largest producer of shell eggs.

 In announcing the expansion and the appointment of Jonathan Zoeller as CFO of Prepared Foods and the promotion of Dave Jordan to president of Echo Lake Foods, CEO Sherman Miller noted, “These prepared foods investments are a critical component of our multi-year plan to strengthen mid-cycle earnings, enhance portfolio resilience and capture accelerated demand for high-protein, ready-to-eat convenience formats.”  Miller added, “By investing in our facilities and building an exceptional leadership team we believe we can create a bigger, stronger, more capable prepared foods platform for the years ahead.”