Egg-News

Editorial


EU Industry Calls for Acceptance of Vaccination Against HPAI for International Trade

Gert Jan Oplaat, president of the AVEC, the Association of European Poultry Producers (essentially the equivalent of USPOULTRY and the USAPEEC combined) recently called for international coordination on control of HPAI including vaccination in accordance with the recommendations and policies of the World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH).

 

Oplaat, a leader of his native Dutch poultry organization emphasized, “The pandemic status of HPAI with outbreaks of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4.b has continued for over the past four years”.  He correctly drew attention to the financial impact of mass depopulation, escalation in the cost of products to consumers and the potential risk to public health following the possible emergence of a zoonotic strain.  Current stamping-out campaigns are regarded as a “waste of resources” and the approach is antithetical to sustainability, welfare and a favorable public perception of the poultry industry.

 

A number of nations have implemented vaccination as a prevention and control measure supplementing biosecurity and quarantine.  EGG-NEWS recently commented on the successful reduction in the incidence of outbreaks of HPAI within the foie gras industry of France.  Farmers operate in close proximity often with defective biosecurity, allow outside access of flocks creating susceptibility by exposure to HPAI infection from migratory birds and by wind-borne dissemination of virus.  Our southern neighbor has employed vaccination as a control strategy to reduce the spread and economic consequences of uncontrolled HPAI. China has deployed vaccination for over a decade to limit flock infection and to reduce exposure to consumers through wet markets.

 

The current restraints to deploying commercially available and effective vaccines relate not to efficacy but to the reality of trade sanctions. Effective vaccines to protect flocks against H5N1 HPAI include live vectored products for mass immunization and inactivated oil emulsion DIVA vaccines for parenteral administration.

 

Stamping-out has failed to eliminate the endemic status of HPAI in Europe and North America. The infection is introduced by migratory and marine waterfowl and disseminated by contact with free-living birds and the aerogenous route. This has raised questions as to the validity of current control measures. Regulators in importing nations have been slow to accept the benefits of vaccination, adhering to traditional pre-panornitic regulations. The representations by AVEC reflect the realities of trade restrictions that are now anachronistic and epidemiologically invalid given available programs of surveillance and certification.  Oplaat correctly states that “HPAI is not only a trade issue, it is a long-term structural challenge for animal health, sustainability and credibility.”

The EU will produce 11.970 million metric tons of RTC chicken in 2026.  Of this total, 1.720 million metric tons or 14 percent will be exported.  This figure is offset by imports of 0.8 million metric tons, principally from Brazil, Ukraine and Thailand.  Corresponding figures for the U.S. comprise 22.090 million metric tons of RTC broiler production in 2026 with 3.052 million metric tons exported representing 13.8 percent of production. 

 

AVEC recommends the following approach to vaccination: -

  • Targeted application to high-risk species including ducks, turkeys and long-lived egg production and breeder flocks.
  • Concentration on regions demonstrating a history of reoccurring seasonal outbreaks.
  • Implementation of accepted epidemiologically sound surveillance protocols.
  • Selection of vaccines based on efficacy and incorporating the DIVA principle.
  • Transparent sharing of data.
  • Conformity to WOAH standards regarding vaccine quality, monitoring of immunity and reporting outbreaks.
  • Acceptance of vaccination with surveillance and certification by the World Trade Organization that should suppress unjustified import restrictions to protect domestic industries.

 

Ultimately vaccination will be accepted but to facilitate the process, AVEC recognizes the need for common standards supported and promoted by the International Poultry Council (IPC) and the World Egg Organization.  Setting aside competition among exporting nations, dialog is essential to establish uniform standards and regulations relating to vaccines, vaccination, surveillance, certification and reporting, all in conformity with WOAH directives.  It is evident that the IPC should serve as a coordinating body and establish leadership.  To date HPAI has not been a major problem in the broiler industries of the U.S. and Brazil, the world’s leading exporters.  Both nations have maintained production and trade despite heavy losses in the U.S. duck, turkey and egg production sectors.

 

Oplaat correctly states that a coordinated program of controlled vaccination would send a signal to manufacturers of biologics to invest in both research and production capacity to supply the resulting demand for avian influenza vaccines.  The biopharmaceutical industry has been constrained by a patchwork of regulations and evident hostility towards immunization based on scientifically unsubstantiated fears of obstruction to export of raw chicken and turkey products.

 

Until the emergence of genotype-VI avian paramyxovirus, clinical Newcastle disease was successfully prevented by application of a range of live and inactivated vaccines. Avian influenza is effectively the “Newcastle disease of the 2020s” since it represented as much of a challenge in the 1970s to production and trade as HPAI in the 2020s. 

 

AVEC has taken the initiative to motivate a collective approach to regulating vaccination to prevent outbreaks of avian influenza in the interest of poultry producers, consumers and public health. The organization is actively advocating for the abolition of unjustified trade restrictions. It is now up to the IPC and IEC following the AVEC lead, to remove restrictions limiting tactical application of immunization of high-risk poultry segments in historically affected regions.


 

Egg Industry News


Lubing Preamble

This Edition of EGG-NEWS is sponsored by Lubing Systems LP. The Company, located in Tennessee, traces its roots back 75 years to the founding organization in Germany. Lubing is a leader in the design and manufacture of equipment and installations for  intensive livestock production and horticulture. Products for U.S. egg producers include egg conveyors, evaporative cooling and watering systems. The feature article for March describes water flushing components with an emphasis on the Optima E-flush automated installation. The range of Lubing products can be accessed on < lubingusa.com> 


 

Lubing Automatic Flush Systems

Lubing Systems LP, the long established U.S. subsidiary of parent company Lubing Maschinenfabrik GmbH&Co.KG of Germany, offers upgraded automatic flush systems for floor, aviary and cage housing.

 

The benefits of flushing water systems at periodic intervals include: -

  • A supply of clean water to flocks that contributes to intestinal health and enhanced flock performance by reducing mortality and assisting flocks to reach genetic potential.
  • Preventing accumulation of biofilm within drinker lines.
  • Enhanced flock response from administration of vaccines, medication and water-soluble supplements.
  • The ability to eliminate chemical water treatment reducing production cost and benefiting the environment.
  • Under high temperature conditions, periodic flushing reduces the temperature of water, and stimulates intake to promote natural heat loss by evaporation and maintaining hydration.
  • Frequent flushing of water lines stimulates water intake especially during brooding as droplets accumulate on drinker nipples. Pullet weight is improved through the growing period.

Lubing offers water regulators that allow manual initiation of flushing. Automatic systems are also available, designed for cage and aviary housing, floor housed flocks and multiple-house complexes.  The Lubing Optima E-Flush system is compatible with pullets, layers and breeders and can be supplied as an original installation or a retrofit to existing Lubing installations.

 

Components of the Lubing Flush System include: -

  • The Lubing Touch Control LCW that can operate up to ten lines.  The system is programmable using a touch screen. Extension boxes are available that each operate eight drinker lines.
  • A Lubing Optima E-Flush valve incorporated into the pressure regulator.  The Optima E-Flush Regulator is a drop-in replacement for the Optima Regulator and is compatible with all Lubing connectors, piping and accessories.
  • An actuator that opens and closes the valve in the pressure regulator.
  • The Flush Breather unit comprising a clear flexible standpipe with float ball and attachments for a drain kit.
  • An optional temperature kit is available that activates the flush cycle at a preset water temperature.

 

The E-Flush Regulator allows manual flushing.  To save labor, the E-Flush Regulator equipped with an optional solenoid permits automatic flushing of drinker lines with the compatible LCW Touch Control.

For new installations with clean water lines, Lubing offers an ultrasonic cleaning module.  This option prevents the accumulation of biofilm.  The ultrasonic transducer is mounted in the incoming water line.  The transducer generates high frequency sound waves that generate a stream of bubbles. Resulting cavitation dislodges mineral and biologic deposits on the interior surface of water lines.  The system is both efficient and environmentally friendly since it obviates addition of chemicals.  The Lubing transducer can effectively operate up t0 1,000 feet of piping.

Lubing offers a slope reducer that adjusts water pressure along the drinking line in buildings with a gradient.  Slope reducers are available to compensate for 4 to 18 inches along lines.

 

Lubing offers a complete range of components to install and maintain watering systems for pullets, layers, turkeys, broilers and breeders.  Technical specialists can design installations and provide consultation. After-sales service is available from a dedicated team.


 

REVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2026 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS

This update of U.S egg-production costs and available prices is provided for the information of producers and stakeholders. Statistical data was unavailable for October and November 2025 due to the Federal shutdown. Subsequent 2026 data, now available is included in this edition.

 

FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS

 

o February 2026 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 72 cents per dozen, up 23 cents per dozen or 46.9 percent from the January 2026 value of 49 cents per dozen. The corresponding February 2024 and 2025 values were respectively $2.52 and $7.40 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2025 was 313 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen covering 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, as determined by the economy, supply as influenced by flock placements, incidence of HPAI, net exports and the rate of replacement of depopulated pullets and hens and planned depletion. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.

 

o Imports of shell eggs continued during the first three quarters of 2025 with the cumulative negative trade balance attaining 19.6 million dozen shell-equivalents through November. For 2025 through November, U.S. liquid and dried products combined achieved a positive trade balance of 26.3 million case-equivalents.

o February 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 57 cents per dozen. The January 2026 value was 63 cents per dozen. The corresponding February 2024 and 2025 values were respectively 266 and 916 cents per dozen.

o Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An important factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts. A high proportion of available eggs in this category accentuates the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs as determined by the price discovery system. Extreme fluctuation is exemplified by high prices prevailing during the 1 st quarter of 2025 and low values during December 2025 and 2026 to date. The magnitude of price fluctuation is inconsistent with relatively small changes in production as flocks are replaced or changes in demand.

o The response to highly pathogenic avian influenza as distorted by the price discovery system was the major driver of prices in 2024 and through 2025 due to the high seasonal incidence rates. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to an additional 45 million birds, (hens and pullets) in both large complexes and contract farms through 2025. The Fall 2025 losses involved complexes of 3.1 million hens in late September and 2.0 million in early October. During November 570,000 hens producing table eggs were depopulated on 22 farms in close geographic proximity with flock losses averaging 24,000 per event. This suggested the vulnerability of contract producers of cage free eggs with common risk factors including feed supply and egg collection. This situation is a departure from losses involving a few very large complexes evident in the wave of cases during early fall months. This said in January 2.8 million hens were depopulated among a few large farms followed by the depopulation of 9.5 million hens mainly in Pennsylvania and North Carolina during February.

o February 2026 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 76.8 cents per dozen, up 1.3 cents from January 2026 at 75.5 cents per dozen, influenced by feed cost. The February average nest run production cost for other than caged and certified organic hens was estimated by the EIC to be 96.7 cents per dozen up 0.7 cents per dozen from the previous month. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.

o February 2026 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a negative value of 4.8 cents per dozen compared to a negative margin of 27.2 cents per dozen in January 2026. The two-month 2026 cumulative average monthly margin was a negative 10 cents per dozen. For 2025 the average monthly nest-run production margin attained 172 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen in 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.

o February 2026 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs was a negative 38.1 cents per dozen compared to a negative margin of 33.0 cents per dozen in January 2026. The two-month 2026 cumulative average monthly margin was a negative 35.6 cents per dozen. For 2025 the average monthly nest-run production margin attained 293 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, a year with a relatively low incidence rate of HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.

o The January 2026 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was estimated by the USDA to be up by 2.7 million hens (rounded, and a probable undercount) to 296.5 million compared to 293.8 in December. There were approximately 326 million hens before the advent of the H5N1 epornitic in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt during the month together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with the total offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens. On March 4 th USDA estimated the total U.S table-egg production flock to be 304.9 million with 297.0 million hens actually in production.

o January 2026 pullet chick hatch of 26.7 million was up 0.4 million, (1.5 percent) from the previous month, inconsistent with an increased industry need to replace depopulated flocks.

o December 2025 export data is reviewed in a companion article in this edition. In December 2025 exports of shell-eggs and products combined were down 17.1 percent from November 2025 to 405,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 6.0 million hens. Shell egg exports were up 19.1 percent from November totaling 94,000 cases. Exports were dominated by Canada (51 percent of volume) and the “Rest of Americas” including the Caribbean (43 percent) for a total of 94 percent. With respect to 311,000 case-equivalents of egg products, down 24.5 percent from the prior month, importers comprised the E.U (53 percent of volume), Japan, (14 percent), Canada (8 percent), “Rest of Americas (6 percent), Mexico, (6 percent) and S. Korea (4 percent), collectively representing 89 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competing suppliers, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

o For 2025 through November the positive trade balance in all shell and derived egg products attained 6.8 million dozen shell equivalents.

 

 

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR FEBRUARY 2026.

Summary tables for the latest USDA February 2026 costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on March 9 h 2025. Data is arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous February10 th 2026 release reflecting January 2026 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA and EIC releases.

 

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

PARAMETER

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

Table-strain eggs in incubators

53.1 million (Jan.)

57.5 million (Feb.)

Pullet chicks hatched

26.3 million (Dec.)

26.7 million (Jan.)

Pullets to be housed 5 months after hatch

23.7 million (May)

23.3 million (June)

EIC December 1 st 2026 U.S. total flock projection

324.0 million (Feb.)

322.0 million (March)

National Flock in farms over 30,000

293.8 million (Dec.)

296.5 million (Jan.)

National egg-producing flock

307.0 million (Dec.)

309.6 million (Jan.)

Cage-free flock excluding organic

Cage-free organic flock

121.8 million (Jan.)

21.0 million (Jan.)

125.7 million (Feb)

21.0 million (Feb.)

Proportion of flocks post-molt

10.7% (Dec.)

10.6% (Jan.)

Total of hens in National flock, 1 st cycle (estimate)

271.5 million (Dec.)

276.8 million (Jan.)

 


 

Total U.S. Eggs produced (billion)

7.86 December 2025

7.88 January 2026

Total Cage-Free hens in production

Proportion of organic population

142.8 million (Jan.)

14.2% Organic

146.7 million (Feb.)

14.3% Organic

“Top-9” States hen population (USDA) 1

187.3million (Jan.)

194.4 million (Feb.)

*Source USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

 

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2025

Based on a nominal denominator of 297 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality relating to sizes of Company flocks

 

STATE

December 1

2025

January

2026

 

Iowa

15.2%

15.0 %

Indiana

12.0%

12.1 %

Ohio

12.9%

12.9 %

Pennsylvania

7.8%

7.7 %

Texas (estimate)

5.0% ?

4.8 %?

MO, MI, GA, NE.

9.6

10.1 %

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

2. MO, 4.7%; MI, 4.7%; GA,3.3%; & NE, 2.8%

 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-month (USDA)82.1% December 2025. 82.1% January 2026

*Revised USDA

 

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2020

285.6 (down 7.8 eggs from 2019)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2021

282.5 (down 3.1 eggs from 2020)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2022

280.5 (down 2.0 eggs from 2021 due to HPAI)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2023

278.0 (down 2.5 eggs from 2022)

Actual per capita

Revised per capita

Projection per capita

Egg consumption 2024

Egg consumption 2025

Egg consumption 2026

270.6 (down 7.2 eggs from 2023) attributed to HPAI losses*

259.8 (down 10.8 eggs from 2024) forecast adjusted for HPAI losses

272.3 (up an aspirational 13.4 eggs from 2025 assuming restoration of flocks and without HPAI losses)

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook January 16 th 2026 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation and net importation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY 2026:

Shell Eggs

1.76 million cases in February 2026 down 10.0% percent from January 2026

Frozen Egg

Products

644,444 case equivalents, up 13.1 percent from January 2026

Dried Egg

Products

Not disclosed since March 2020 following market disruption due

To COVID. Moderate levels of inventory are assumed.

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)December 2025, 6.41 January 2026, 6.82

 

Cumulative eggs broken under FSIS inspection 2025 (million cases)

80.4

JAN. TO DEC.

Cumulative 2024: number of cases produced (million)

245.5

JAN. TO DEC.

Cumulative 2024: proportion of total eggs broken

32.2%

(29.9% 20224

     

Cumulative eggs broken under FSIS inspection 2026 (million cases)

6.8

JAN.

Cumulative 2025: number of cases produced (million)

21.9

JAN

Cumulative 2025: proportion of total eggs broken

31.3%

JAN.

 

EXPORTS DECEMBER 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs ).

 

Parameter

Quantity Exported

Exports:

November 2025. December 2025

Shell Eggs (thousand cases)

76. 94

Products (thousand case-equivalents)

411. 311

TOTAL(thousand case equivalents)*

487. 405

*Representing 1.9 percent of volume of National production in December 2025 comprising 35% shell, 75% products.

 

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES 1 FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

 

Parameter

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

4-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1 st Cycle) 1

76.2 c/doz

76.8 c/doz

Low

74.0c/doz (MW)

74.6 c/doz (MW)

High

78.7 c/doz (NE)

79.4c/doz (NE)

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West representing an important deficiency

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

 

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

Feed

34.5 c/doz

35.1c/doz

Pullet depreciation

12.2 c/doz

12.2c/doz

Labor (estimate),

   

Housing (estimate),

29.5c/doz

29.5c/doz

Miscellaneous and other (adjusted Jan. 2026)

   

 

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting February 2026:-

72.0 cents per dozen1- 76.8 cents per dozen = -4.8 cents per dozen(January 2026 comparison: 49.0 cents per dozen – 76.2 cents per dozen = 27.2 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

   

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

USDA

Ex-farm Price (Large, White)

49.0 c/doz (Jan.)

72.0 c/doz (Feb.)

 

Warehouse/Dist. Center

96.0 c/doz (Jan.)

111.8 c/doz (Feb.)

 

Store delivered (estimate)

101.0 c/doz (Jan.)

116.8 c/doz (Feb)

 

Dept. Commerce Retail 1 National

271.0 c/doz (Dec.)

258.0 c/doz (Jan.)

 

Dept. Commerce Retail 1 Midwest

N/A. (Dec.)

N/A (Jan.)

1. Unrealistic USDA values based on advertised promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!


 

 

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

U.S. Av Feed Cost per ton

$222.97

$226.44

Low Cost – Midwest

$201.36

$204.87

High Cost – West

$260.42

$263.77

Differential

Corn/ton 5 regions

Soybean meal/ton 5 regions

$ 59.06

$172.26

$319.14

$ 58.90

$173.24

$331.49

 

Pullet Cost 19 Weeks

$4.74 JANUARY 2026

$4.76 FEBRUARY 2026

Pullet Cost 16 Weeks

$4.18 JANUARY 2026

$4.20 FEBRUARY 2026

 

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

 

Parameter

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1 st Cycle)

96.0 c/doz

96.7 c/doz

Low

91.7c/doz (MW)

92.4 c/doz (MW)

High

103.5 c/doz (West)

104.2 c/doz (West)

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

 

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

Feed (non-organic)

39.9 c/doz

40.5 c/doz

Pullet depreciation

16.1 c/doz

16.2 c/doz

Labor (estimate) plus

   

Housing (estimate) plus

40.0c/doz

40.0 c/doz

Miscellaneous and other

   

 

 

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for February 2026:-

Cage-Free brown 57.0 cents per dozen1- 96.7 cents per dozen = -38.1 cents per dozen

January 2026:-63.0 cents perdozen1- 96.0 cents per dozen = -33.0 cents per dozen

 

 

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

USDA

USDA Average Ex-farm Price 1

Gradable nest run 2

173 c/doz (Jan.)

63 c/doz. (Jan.)

173 c/doz (Feb .)

57 c/doz. (Feb.)

 

Warehouse/Dist. Center 3

c/doz (Jan.)

c/doz (Feb.)

 

Store delivered (estimate)

c/doz (Jan.)

c/doz (Feb.)

 

Dept. Com. Retail 4 C-F White

Dept. Com. Retail 4 C-F Brown

254 c/doz (Jan.)

345 c/doz (Jan.)

266 c/doz (Feb.)

367 c/doz (Feb.)

 

Dept. Com. Retail 3 Organic

Dept. Com. Retail 3 Pasture

503 c/doz (Jan.)

644 c/doz (Jan.)

547 c/doz (Feb.)

664 c/doz. (Feb.)


1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 155 to 210 c/doz. Negligible change since July 2024 and totally unrealistic.

2. Negotiated price, loose. Range $0.50 to $0.70 per dozen

3. Estimate based on prevailing costs

4. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores and non-representative of shelf prices


 

Cage-Free* Pullet Cost 19 Weeks

$5.76 January 2026

$5.79 February 2026

Cage-Free* Pullet Cost 16 Weeks

$5.04 January 2026

$4.94 February 2026

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

 

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.


 

USDA Cage-Free Production Data for February 2026

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering February 2026, was released on March 2nd 2026.

 

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 21.0 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 20,000 hens or less than 0.1 percent from January 2026. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn, free range and other systems of housing apparently increased by 3.9 million hens or 3.2 percent from January 2026 to 125.7 million, attributed to expansion, transition from conventional cages and repopulation of depleted flocks.

 

Extensive depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through January and February 2025 (31 million), but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million) and April (1.0 million) and a single large complex in Arizona during May (3.8 million). Losses reemerged during late September in a caged-bird complex in Wisconsin (3.1 million hens and 250,000 pullets). Additional depopulation occurred in October, (2.2 million); November, 0.5 million; December, (0.2 million); January 2026 (1.5 million) and February (5.0 million).

 

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in February 2026 was up less than 0.1 percent (rounded) compared to January 2026 with a high average weekly production of 83.7 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 3.0 percent in February 2026, with a high average hen-month production of 82.4 percent. Seasonally placed flocks in anticipation of periods of peak demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs, reflecting pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

 

There is no adequate explanation for the elevated production rates recorded other than the high proportion of young hens reaching peak placed in anticipation of December demand. It is also assumed that almost all cage free flocks are in the first cycle of production with negligible molting contributing to the high average in hen-week values compared to caged hens.

 

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview and data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator, the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 307.9 million total hens as of February 2026 comprised:-

Caged, 161.2 million (52.3% of total flock);

Cage Free (non-organic), 125.7 million (40.8% of total flock) with 82.7% of this population in barns, 7.6% on free-range and 9.7% on pasture;

Cage Free (organic), 21.0 million (6.8%) with 56.7% of this population in barns and 21.4% on free-range and 21.9 on pasture: or other extensive systems

 

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 comprised:-

Caged flocks, 24.8 million representing 8.4 percent of a nominal 290 million producing hens

Cage-free flocks, 17.6 million representing 5.9 percent of the national flock

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

 

Through the first two months of 2026, hen losses attained 5.9 million in cages and 1.9 million housed in alternative systems.

Average Flock Size

(million hens)

 Average

February 2025

*Average

Q3- 2025

Average

Q2- 2025

Average

Q1 –

2025

Average

Q4 –

2024

Average

Q3-

2024

Certified Organic

21.0

20.0

20.0

 20.4

20.5

20.0

Cage-Free Hens

125.7

115.6

108.4

103.4

 104.5

 103.9

Total Non-Caged

146.7

135.6

128.4

123.8

 125.0

 123.9

 *October and November data was not released to compile Q4 average

Average Weekly Production (cases of 360 eggs)

January

2026

February

2026

Certified Organic @ 83.7% hen/day

341,966

342,042 - 0.1%

Cage-Free @ 82.4% hen/day

 1,955,847

2,013,939 +3.0%

All Non-Caged @ 82.6% hen/day

 2,355,981

2,355,981 +2.5%

 

 On March 2nd 2026 USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases (rounded) with the change from January 2026 as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

Commodity shell eggs of all sizes. 1,542,200. (+10.5%)

Commodity breaking stock. 330,400. (-8.4%)

Specialty eggs. 45,100. (+39.1%)

Certified organic eggs. 88,000. (+8.5%)

Cage-Free eggs 461,400. (+5.2%) equivalent to 1.6 days production

Average Nest Run Contract Price Cage-Free

 White and Brown combined for February 2026

$1.73/doz.* (unchanged from May 2025)

February 2025 Range:

$1.55 to $2.10/doz. (unchanged from May 2025)

FOB Negotiated February price, grade-ready quality, loose nest-run. Price range $0.38 to $0.55 per dozen

Average February 2026 Value of $0.57/doz. ($0.63/doz. January 2026)

*Essentially a meaningless value

Average February 2026 advertisedpromotional National Retail Price C-F, Large Brown

$3.67/doz. February 2025 (6 regions)

(Was $3.45/doz. In January 2026)

USDA Based on 6 ‘Lower 48’ Regions, 1,405 stores

SW, NW, NE, SE, MW & SC.

Range $3.49/doz. (SW) to $3.99/doz. (NW)

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for February 2026 averaged $0.59 per dozen, up $0.16 per dozen (+37.2 percent) from $0.43 per dozen in January 2026, reflecting a disturbance in balance between demand and supply.

The February 2026 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over 1,620 ‘Lower 48’ stores in six regions (NW, NE, SE, SW, MW and SC.) was $2.66 per dozen. This compares with 1,424 stores featuring cage-free Large White in January and reflects more promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with lower demand and increased production. The February 2026 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large Brown cage-free eggs over 1,405 stores in six regions was $3.67 per dozen with a range of $3.49 per dozen in the SW region to $3.99 per dozen in the NW region. The average promotional shelf price was 22 cents per dozen above January 2026 for this category

The recorded average gradeable nest run price of $0.59 per dozen for brown and white cage-free combined plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $1.19 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average advertised promotional retail prices of $3.67 per dozen for Brown and $2.66 per dozen for white represented retail margins of 208 percent for featured Brown and 123 percent for White respectively. Fewer promotions were offered for Brown compared to White-shelled cage-free by stores reflecting the balance between supply and demand for the two broad categories. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $8.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers are maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restricting the volumes of sales, of all categories ultimately disadvantageous to producers and consumers.


 

USDA-WASDE REPORT #669. MARCH 10th 2026

OVERVIEW

 

Understandably the March 10th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #669 projecting the 2026 season was little changed from the previous February 11th edition given that planting has not commenced. Crop size and ending stocks were selected from previous harvest data, projections for domestic use and the probable effects of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

 

The March WASDE report projected that the 2026 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 91.3 million acres, (90.0 million acres in 2025). The soybean crop will be harvested from an almost unchanged 80.4 million acres, (80.3 million acres in 2025).

 

The March WASDE yield value for the 2026 corn crop was held at 186.5 bushels per acre. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was retained at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2025 reflecting previous harvests. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the 2024 crop.

 

The March WASDE projection for the 2026 ending stock of corn was unchanged at 2,127 million bushels. The March USDA projection for the 2026 ending stock of soybeans was unchanged since January at 350 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

 

The March WASDE retained the projected corn price for the 2026-2027 market year to an average of 410 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was increased by $5 to $300 per ton.

 

USDA commodity prices suggest rising feed costs for livestock and poultry producers given projections for yields, domestic use and the prospect of increased exports. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced a “bridging” allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

 

Projections for world output included in the March 2026 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also consider the impact of weather patterns arising from Southern Oscillation events especially on these nations and their neighbors.

 

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans since the 2024-2025 market year extending into the current year.

 

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the February WASDE, reflecting the predicted yield, and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The March WASDE Report projected a 2026 crop of 17,021 million bushels, compared to 16,752 million bushels for the previous 2025 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged for 2026 at 6,200 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,370 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs during winter months. Projected corn exports were raised to 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be down 100 million bushels to 2,127 million bushels or 11.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the WASDE report was 410 cents per bushel. At 11H45 EDT on March 11th after the noon March 10th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 457 cents per bushel, 11.5 percent above the USDA projection and 6.9 percent above the February 11th CME price.

 

MARCH 2026 WASDE #669 Summary for the 2026 Corn Harvest:

Harvest Area

91.3 million acres

(98.8 m. acres planted, with harvest corresponding to 92.4% of acres planted)

Yield

186.5 bushels per acre

(Updated from 186.0 bushels per acre in the Dec. WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

1,551 m. bushels

 

Production

17,021 m. bushels

 

Imports

25 m. bushels

 

Total Supply

18,597 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

6,200 m. bushels

33.3%

Food & Seed

1,370 m bushels

 7.4%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,600 m. bushels

30.1%

Domestic Use

13,170 m. bushels

70.8%

Exports

3,300 m. bushels

17.8%

Ending Stocks

2,127 m. bushels

 

11.4%

Average Farm Price: 410 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

 

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were generally retained from the February WASDE other than the additional import of 5 million bushels to a total of 25 million bushels. Yield of 53.0 bushels per acre was held but with an area of 81.2 million acres planted compared to 2025. The March WASDE retained the projection for the 2026 soybean crop at 4,262 million bushels. Crush volume was increased by 5 million bushels to 2,575 million bushels consistent with anticipated demand and industry capacity. Projected exports were retained at 1,575 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 350 million bushels. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

 

The March USDA projection for the ex-farm seasonal price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. At 11H45 EDT on March 11th following the noon release of the WASDE the previous day, the CME spot price was 1,225 cents per bushel, 20.1 percent above the March USDA projection and 8.5 percent above the February 11th CME price, reflecting prospects of higher exports.

 

MARCH 2026 WASDE #669 Summary for the 2026 Soybean Harvest:-

Harvest Area

80.4 million acres

81.2 m. acres planted. Harvest corresponding to 99.0% of planted acreage)

Yield

53.0 bushels per acre

(Updated from 53.5 bushels/acre in the September WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

325 m. bushels

 

Production

4,262 m. bushels

 

Imports

25 m. bushels

 

Total Supply

4,612 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crush Volume

2,575 m. bushels

55.8%

Exports

1,575 m. bushels

34.2%

Seed

73 m. bushels

 1.6%

Residual

39 m. bushels

 0.8%

Total Use

4,262 m. bushels

92.4%

Ending Stocks

350 m. bushels

 

7.6%

Average Farm Price: 1,020 cents per bushel. (Unchanged since the January WASDE)

 

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were changed from the February WASDE. Production will be 0.5 percent higher to 61.1 million tons, consistent with the increased soybean crush volume of 2,575 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 42.4 million tons, 12.5 percent higher than for the February WASDE. Exports were estimated at 19.4 million tons.

 

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 per ton, up $5 from the February WASDE as an average of $300 per ton for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

 

At 11H45 EDT on March 11th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $315 per ton, up $15 per ton (5.0 percent) compared to the USDA projection of $300 per ton and up 5.0 percent from the February 11th CME price.

 March 2026 WASDE #669 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

Quantities in thousand short tons

Beginning Stocks

398

Production

61,077

Imports

800

Total Supply

62,275

Domestic Use

42,425

Exports

19,400

Total Use

61,825

Ending Stocks

450

Average Price ex plant:$300 per ton (Up $5 per ton from the February WASDE)

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

 

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

 

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2026 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

 

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, greater trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for Ukraine and Brazil are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Ukraine is raised based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service. Brazil is higher on an increase for first crop area. Argentina is lowered as dryness during February reduces yield prospects. Foreign barley production is raised, with an increase for

Australia partly offset by a decline for Ukraine”. 

 

“Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for India. For 2024/25, based on observed shipments to date Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher while Argentina is reduced. Corn imports for 2025/26 are raised for Vietnam and the Philippines but lowered for India. Barley exports are raised for Australia with greater imports expected for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine, and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 292.8 million tons, are up 3.8 million”.

 

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 oilseed production is raised 1.8 million tons on higher sunflower seed, rapeseed, and cottonseed production, partly offset by lower soybean production. Sunflower seed production is raised for Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan while rapeseed is increased for Australia and Kazakhstan. Global soybean production is reduced on lower production for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 48 million on a lower yield partly offset by higher area. Ukraine production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million on lower area”.

 

“Global 2025/26 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran, and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine”. 

 

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

Factor: Million m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oilseeds

Output

1,593*

698

Supply

1,918

840

World Trade

253

215

Use

1,594

582

Ending Stocks

324

147


*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)


 

Cal-Maine Foods Acquires Creighton Brothers

In a March 2nd release, Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) announced acquisition of the assets of Creighton Brothers LLC, for $129 million.

Creighton Brothers was established in 1925 and operates egg production facilities including pullet and layer housing, egg packing installations. A subsidiary, Crystal Lake LLC, manufactures and distributes further-processed egg products.

 

Creighton Brothers houses 3.2 million hens of which 14 percent are cage-free in addition to 900,000 pullets, with a feed mill, egg packing and processing facilities and 1,000 acres of land near Warsaw, IN.

 

The acquisition represents a unit price of $36 per hen although it is noted that additional capital will be required to increase the proportion of hens in other than conventional cages, should this be required.

 

Sherman Miller, CEO of Cal-Maine Foods noted, “The acquisition of Creighton Brothers and Crystal Lake advances our strategy by expanding the scale and geographic reach of our shell egg platform across both specialty eggs and conventional eggs adding meaningful growth to our portfolio.”  He added, “Importantly, we further our internal sourcing strategy for key egg-based ingredients for our prepared foods business-strengthening supply security, improving margins and driving greater operational efficiency.”

 

Mindy Truex, president of Creighton Brothers and Crystal Lake, stated, “With mixed personal emotions and great pride, I am excited to see the legacy of Hobart and Russell Creighton and their families continue and grow with the new family at Cal-Maine.”  


 

France Modifies Salmonella Monitoring for Egg Production

According to a report in Poultry Med, the Ministry of Agriculture in France has modified mandatory surveillance for Salmonella to recognize the protection afforded by vaccination.

 

Producers applying a comprehensive Salmonella vaccination program will be monitored by fecal swabbing, eliminating environmental testing. Non-vaccinated flocks will be subjected to current surveillance including environmental sampling.

The amended regulations were developed in collaboration with the statutory scientific authority-ANSES and with industry representation (CNPO).

 

It is noted that the 2010 FDA Final Rule on Salmonella ignored vaccination partly due to inherent ignorance among the framers of the regulation and exacerbated by their reluctance to consult with industry and state agencies. Effective EQAP programs antedated the FDA Final Rule by a few years and contributed to a sharp reduction in the incidence rate of Salmonella Enteritidis infection among consumers.

If at any time in the future FDA amends the Final Rule, vaccination should be an important consideration since virtually the entire industry adopted this modality since the availability of the gene-deleted Salmonella Typhinurium vaccine.

 

As a further consideration, FDA should consider swabbing the fan blades in power-ventilated houses since this is a more sensitive and less intrusive and laborious method of detecting SE than traditional drag swabs that were appropriate for high-rise houses in the 2000s but are less effective for manure belt batteries and litter housing.


 

DXE Releases Map of Livestock and Poultry Installations in California

Direct Action Everywhere (DXE) recently released an interactive online map of California  indicating the location of animal production facilities they characterized as “factory farms and slaughterhouses”.  This action may be a precursor of activities similar to the 2020 “Project Counterglow” that encouraged protesters to gather at farms and plants. 

 

By identifying production facilities, their vulnerability to intrusion and protests has increased. It is possible that there are relatively fewer DXE activists willing to risk arrest and legal action following the Sonoma County conviction of Zoe Rosenberg. Unless the organization focuses on specific segments of the industry or designated locations, the mapmaking initiative has probably been a make-work exercise that will have little actual impact on production. 

 

Notwithstanding the anticipated response to the interactive map, producers and processors should review the security of their flocks, herds, facilities and employees. Close communication should be maintained with local law enforcement agencies. Appropriate contingency plans and legal counter-measures should be developed in advance of any possible DXE action.


 

Vital Farms Posts Q4 and FY 2025 Financial Results

In a February 26th release, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL), a Certified B Corporation posted financial results for the 4th quarter and FY 2025. This specialty egg producer competes directly with Eggland’s Best and other brands of USDA Certified Organic and pasture-raised products including Pete and Gerry’s, Hidden Valley and the combination of the Happy Egg with Egg Innovations. The Company experiences the same pressures of increased cost of feed, contractor remuneration, labor and transport as competitors in a specialty market environment restrained by a limited clientele for higher priced eggs.

For the 4th Quarter of FY 2025 ending December 28th 2025, net income was $16.3 million on revenue of $213.6 million with a diluted EPS of $0.35.  Comparable figures for the 4th quarter of fiscal 2025 ending December 29th were net income of $10.6 million on revenue of $166.0 million with a diluted EPS of $0.24.

 

For FY 2025, net income was $66.3 million on revenue of $759.4 million with a diluted EPS of $1.49.  Comparable figures for FY 2024 were net income of $53.4 million on revenue of $606.3 million with a diluted EPS of $1.25.

 

Sales increased 28.6 percent over the 4th quarter of 2025. Gross margin was 35.8 percent for the most recent quarter compared to 36.0 percent Q4 2024. Operating margin was 10.0 percent compared to 7.8 percent for the corresponding quarter in 2024.   

In commenting on results, Russell Diez-Canseco, President and CEO of Vital Farms stated 2025 was the year we scaled our supply chain to meet demand. By expanding Egg Central Station and growing our farmer network to over 600 small farms, we’ve meaningfully reduced the supply constraints that previously capped our growth,” said Russell Diez-Canseco, Vital Farms’ President and CEO.

 

“As we enter 2026, we’re transitioning from capacity building to market expansion – capitalizing on our strengthened operations to grow our customer base and increase household penetration and buy rate as we progress toward our $2 billion revenue target by 2030. We remain committed to a disciplined capital allocation strategy that reinvests in our future while returning value to our shareholders, all while staying true to our purpose of improving the lives of people, animals, and the planet through food.”

 

The Company increased guidance for FY 2026 with midpoint of the range revenue of $910 million, adjusted EBITDA of $110 million and capital expenditure of $145 million. Analysts noted that the Adjusted EBITDA was below an anticipated $134 million.

 

On December 28th 2025, VITL posted assets of $518.8 million of which $15.2 million comprised intangibles against long-term debt and lease obligations of $44.8 million. The Company had an intraday market capitalization of $897 million on March 4th. VITL trades with a forward P/E of 31.1 and has ranged over a 52-week period from $19.75 to $53.10 with a 50-day moving average of $28.03.  Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 10.0 percent and profit margin 7.8 percent.  Return on assets over the past twelve months was 12.6 percent with a 21.4 percent return on equity. At close of trading on March 2nd pre-release, VITL was priced at $21.15. At market open, post-release on March 3rd VITL moved up to $20.32.

 

Approximately 17 percent of VITL equity is held by insiders with 109 percent by institutions. As of February 13th, 33 percent of the float was short.

 

Benchmark recently downgraded VITL from a Buy to a Hold rating. This is based on the volatile outlook and insipid guidance. As a mature Company Vital Farms is facing competition from both established and emerging producers and lacks pricing power despite  packing from 10 million hens.


 

Target Corporation Posts Q4 and FY2025 Results

On March 3rd Target Corporation (TGT) the Nation’s 6th-ranked retailer, posted results for Q4 and FY 2025 ending February 1st, beating the earnings estimate of $2.16 and conforming to the sales estimate.  For the quarter, the Company earned $1,046 million on sales of $30,453 million with a diluted EPS of $2.30. For the corresponding Q4 FY 2024 ending February 1st, Target earned $1,103 million on sales of $30,915 million with a diluted EPS of $2.41. Revenue was down by 1.5 percent and net earnings were down 5.2 percent compared to Q4 FY 2024. Gross margin increased from 26.2 percent in Q4 FY2024 to 26.6 percent for the most recent quarter due to lower inventory shrinkage. Operating margin fell from 4.7 percent to 4.5 percent.

 

For FY 2025, the Company earned $3,705 million on sales of $104,780 million with a diluted EPS of $8.13. For the previous FY 2024 Target earned $4,091 million on sales of $106,566 million with a diluted EPS of $8.86

 

For Q4 FY 2025, comparable same-store sales declined by 2.5 percent compared to a positive 1.5 percent in Q4 FY 2024. The company recorded a 2.9 percent decline in transactions (‘traffic’) partly offset by a 0.4 percent increase in the value of each transaction (‘ticket’). Digital sales were up 23.7 percent during Q4 FY 2025.

 

The Company continued with the Target Circle a free loyalty benefits program replacing the previous paid membership alternative with an increase in membership of 30 percent.

 

In commenting on results Michael Fiddelke, CEO stated, “I'm incredibly proud of how our team navigated through a challenging year in 2025, as they focused on serving our guests while positioning our business for profitable growth in 2026 and beyond," He added "Our team is firmly focused on writing Target's next chapter of growth, rooted in strengthening our merchandising authority, delivering an elevated and differentiated shopping experience, advancing our use of technology, and continuing to serve and invest in our team and communities”.  Fiddelke concluded “Target saw a healthy, positive sales increase in February, serving as an important milestone on our path back to growth this year, and reinforcing my confidence in the momentum we're building and the future we're creating together."

 

The Company raised guidance for fiscal 2026. Target expects a two percent increase in same-store sales growth and an adjusted EPS ranging from $7.50 to $8.50

 

At the Analysts’ meeting Target unveiled its multi-year strategy under CEO Michael Fiddelke intended to accelerate return to growth. This will include upgrading the ‘store experience’ across the chain, investing in store payroll and training and improving service and consumer satisfaction.

 

Michael Fiddelke stated "This new chapter of growth at Target is defined by clear choices and rooted in a deeper understanding of our unique lane in retail, the guests we serve and the areas where we're distinctly positioned to win," He added, "This work is underway, and by putting style, design and value at the center of every decision, we're making big changes to lead with a trend-forward assortment, elevate the guest experience, accelerate with technology and equip our teams to deliver the most delightful experience in retail, for today and over the long term."

 

The four growth priorities that will guide decisions and investments in 2026 and beyond will involve:-

  • Merchandizing to set trends with differentiated, culturally relevant assortments offering style, design and value.
  • Improving the in-store experience through strengthening loyalty and engagement.
  • Accelerating technology to help teams become more efficient and to create more personalized experiences for guests.
  • Strengthening teams and communities by investing in training and career growth and building on Target's long-standing commitment to communities.

 

Target intends to invest $2 billion out of a $5 billion capital budget on upgrades to stores including featuring Target brands and upscale cosmetics counters

 

On January 31st 2025 Target posted total assets of $59,490 million, up 3.0 percent from February 1st 2024. Long-term debt and lease obligations attained $19,830 million. Target Corporation had an intraday market capitalization of $54,700 million on March 4th. The Company has traded over the past fifty-two weeks over a range of $83.46 to $126.00 with a 50-day moving average of $107.98.  TGT trades with a forward P/E of 15.5. On March 3rd pre-release the share priced at  $111.00 but after the morning release opened at $118.30 and closed at $119.60

 

Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 4.5 percent and profit margin 3.5 percent.  The Company generated a return on assets of 5.8 percent and 24.0 percent on equity.


 

Kroger Company Posts Q4 and FY 2025 Results

On March 5th The Kroger Company (KR) posted results for Q4 and FY 2025 ending January 31st 2025. Kroger was two percent below consensus revenue and four percent below expectations for adjusted EBITDA but posted higher guidance for FY 2026.

 

 Kroger is the second largest retailer of groceries in the U.S. and is a pure supermarket play subject to the pressures of escalation in food costs, logistics and labor and the impact of inflation in common with all national and regional competitors.

For Q4 Kroger reported earnings of $861 million on sales of $34,725 million with a diluted EPS of $1.35. For the corresponding Q4 of FY 2024, Kroger earned $634 million on sales of $34,308 million with a diluted EPS of $0.90.  Comparing Q4 of 2025 with the corresponding quarter of FY 2024, sales were 1.2 percent higher; Gross margin increased from 23.1 percent for Q4 FY 2024 to 23.4 percent for the most recent quarter. Operating margin increased from 2.0 percent in Q4 2024 to 3.6 percent for Q4. For the last quarter in 2025 S&G was lower by $93 million compared to Q4 FY 2024. Improvements were attributed to reducing supply chain costs, improved sourcing and with lower shrink of inventory.

 

For FY 2025 Kroger reported earnings of $1,016 million on sales of $113,240 million with a diluted EPS of $1.54. For the corresponding FY 2024, Kroger earned $2,685 million on sales of $147,123 million with a diluted EPS of $3.67. During FY 2025 Kroger posted an impairment charge of $2,497 million attributed to the Ocada fulfillment network

 

In commenting on quarterly results in the press release, Greg Foran the newly appointed CEO stated “Kroger delivered a strong finish to the year, with improving market share trends and solid

sales growth that reflect meaningful progress in strengthening the business. He added

“We have the right foundation in place, and I’m focused on making it even stronger by

delivering more value to customers, improving the customer experience in stores and online,

and driving cost savings and productivity to fund our growth."

 

In addressing analysts Foran opined “It has been about a month since I started, and I’ve spent that time learning Kroger from the inside out. I’ve been spending time with the leadership team, having one-on-one conversations across the organization and getting out to the stores, distribution centers and manufacturing facilities — and, importantly, also watching how our customers shop”. He added “The team has done excellent work, particularly over the past year, to strengthen the business. And my focus is on how we ‘operationalize’ our strategy to make us even better.”

 

In discussing future developments, Foran pointed to private Kroger brands that experienced a solid quarter, he stated, “Excluding the impact of egg deflation, sales continue to outpace national brands. Simple Truth and Private Selection again led our growth, with customers continuing to choose these products because they deliver high quality and an affordable price. Innovation continues to be a priority. This year, we introduced more than 1,100 new Our Brands products, up from more than 900 last year. A growing number of these products are focused on health, an area where customer demand is growing, and the Our Brands portfolio is well-positioned to lead.”

 

The challenge facing Greg Foran will be to stabilize operations and implement envisaged improvements. Kroger is recovering from the turbulence, distractions and expenses associated with the thwarted acquisition of Albertsons. The move away from mechanized Ocada fulfillment centers of which 20 additional were planned will reduce unprofitable future capital commitment.

 

The Company released adjusted FY 2026 Guidance:- 

  • Identical Store Sales growth of 1.0 to 2.0 percent excluding fuel,
  • Adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30.
  • Adjusted FIFO Operating Profit of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion.
  • Capital expenditure of $3,800 to $4,000 million,

 

Comparable same-store sales for Q4 advanced by 2.4 percent (excluding fuel) compared to Q4 FY 2024; Digital sales were up by 20.0 percent;

 

On January 31st 2025 Kroger posted total assets of $49,941 million, of which $3,403 million comprised goodwill and intangibles. Long-term debt and lease obligations amounted to $24,405 million.  

 

The Kroger Company had an intraday market capitalization of $43,440 million on March 6th 2026.  The Company has traded over the past fifty-two weeks in a range of $58.60 to $74.90 with a 50-day moving average of $64.96. KR trades with a forward P/E of 12.8. On March 4th 2026 KR closed at $66.02 pre-release but at 09H00 on March 5th post-release share price rose 6.6 percent to $70.40, closing at $74.00.

Insiders hold 8.8 percent of equity with 79.2 percent held by institutions. On February 13th 5.2 percent of the float was short.

Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 3.5 percent and profit margin 0.7 percent.  The Company generated a return on assets of 5.6 percent and 14.4 percent on equity

 

The Kroger Company operates approximately 2,750 stores (with 1,240 under the Kroger banner), but with a total of 25 banners in 35 states. In addition Kroger operates 2,270 pharmacies and 1,700 fuel centers, 34 food plants and 45 distribution centers.


 

Introduction of Cage-Free and Free-Range Certification for Egg Products

Commercial certifying company NSF has launched a new program for cage-free and free-range eggs intended for further-processed products.  The Company has established a protocol including standards and procedures to verify the authenticity of label claims.  Auditing will be based on technical documentation, a review of production facilities and an assurance of compliance with standards. Carey Allen, Director of Food Claims at NSF stated, “This new certification sets rigorous requirements for both cage-free and free-range claims including “Made with cage-free or free-range eggs”.

It is questioned whether this additional certification is necessary or has any promotional benefit for further-processed egg items among consumers. The egg industry is subject to numerous welfare certifications involving housing and are exemplified by numerous seals on cartons and containers.  The question arises as to whether the cost of conforming to standards including audits actually influences purchase decisions especially when dealing with derived egg products.

The press release claimed that the “cage-free egg market is expected to double by 2035”.  Currently 60 percent of the nation’s producing flock is housed in conventional cages and the rate of conversion to alternative systems is demonstrating a plateau. The contention that the U.S. would have 292 million hens out of a total flock of 375 hens or 78 percent (allowing two percent compound annual growth) under cage-free housing within a decade appears questionable.  This is especially the case given the federal challenge to California Proposition #12 and Massachusetts Question 2 and provisions in the House version of the 2026 Farm Bill (H.R. 7567: Food, Farm and National Security Act). 

 

Numerous retailers are reneging on their commitments to cage-free eggs, and the economic realities of alternate housing systems are evidenced by continuing demand for less expensive eggs from caged flocks in the prevailing cost-conscious environment. 

 

The proposed certification will be financially beneficial to NSF but the commercial advantages for egg producers and processors is questioned.


 

Organic Sales Data

The Organic Trade Association (OTA) documented sales of certified organic products at $76.6 billion in 2025 representing an annual growth rate of seven percent.  The March 4th, 2026, market report specified a $70.1 billion value for organic food sales conforming to a seven percent increase compared with 2.3 percent for the overall food market. The OTA forecasts an annual growth rate for organic sales (value) of six percent, increasing by $24 billion over the next five years to attain $100 billion in 2030.

 

The report notes that organic egg sales rose 22 percent in value during 2025.  This increase is consistent with the unprecedent rise in price of all shell eggs during the year and especially during the first quarter. Purchases of organic eggs increased 3.0 percent in 2025 based on the 0.6 million annual increase in the number of organic hens from 20.3 million. 

 

As a matter of record organic hens in all housing systems increased from 19.4 million in 2019 to the current level of 21.0 million, an 8.2 percent increase over seven years. This compares with the 100.5 percent increase in non-organic, cage-free hens from 60.3 million to 125.7 million over the same period.

 


 

House Agricultural Committee Farm Bill Mark-up

The House Agriculture Committee has forwarded H.R.7567, The Food, Farm and Nation

al Security Act by a 34 -17 vote to the entire House.  The legislation colloquially termed “Farm Bill 2.0” includes commodity price supports supplementing the 2025 ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ in addition to designated programs.

 

Non-contentious items in the Bill included permanent funding for the feral swine eradication program, supporting the USMCA and launching an Agricultural Trade Enforcement Task Force to oppose trade barriers.

 

An important component of the Bill is inclusion of a provision setting aside California Proposition #12 (and Massachusetts Question #2) relating to housing of livestock and poultry. States would be permanently enjoined from applying housing and production standards applicable to other states. This provision was incorporated in response to aggressive lobbying by the National Pork Producers’ Council that has long supported the retention of gestation crates for pregnant sows.  This is notwithstanding, the extent of conversions to group housing that has engendered overwhelming retailer and consumer support. 

 

 

The Bill will now have to be approved by the House.  It is understood that the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Food and Forestry has yet to mark-up parallel legislation.  Senator John Boozman (R-AR) Chair of the Senate Committee characterized the House legislation as “advancing the remaining components of the traditional Farm Bill” and he is on record as being committed to the legislative process to reach enactment”.

 

 

Angie Craig (D-MN), Ranking Member of the House Agriculture Committee, voted “No” asserting that her Republican co-members “refuse to invest new money in many farm programs that have stagnated after nearly a decade of inflation”. 

 

The American Meat Producers Association condemned the inclusion of provisions setting aside California Proposition #12, stating that the Bill “pulls the rug out from under farmers who already have made significant investments to meet consumer demand”.

 

The Farm Bill would not have any direct impact on egg production since forty percent of hens are now housed in various alternatives to cages. The relative proportions of current housing systems are consistent with consumer demand. This situation reflects the pre-California Proposition #2 and subsequent Proposition #12 ballot legislation in which the industry supported a range of alternative systems with free-choice by consumers based on price and personal evaluation of attributes.


 

Risk Factors for SE Among Commercial Egg Flocks in Israel

EGG-NEWS is indebted to Dr. Nati Elkin, Editor of Poultry Med for a report on the risk factors associated with Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) infection in egg producing flocks in Israel*.

Between 2018 and 2023, 25,000 samples were assayed from 6,076 flocks for the presence of Salmonella.  For all serovars, 43 percent of flocks yielded any Salmonella isolate.  The respective isolation rates for Salmonella Enteritidis (181/6,076) and Salmonella Typhimurim (127/6,076) were 3 percent and 2 percent respectively.  As a result of outbreaks of SE among consumers, over two million hens were depopulated.  This would have been unnecessary had eggs from these flocks been diverted from the shell egg stream to pasteurization.

 

The risk factors were: -

  • Hens older than 85 weeks of age.
  • Flock sizes in excess of 10,000 hens.
  • Cage housing.
  • Close -proximity to dairy farms.
  • Higher isolation rates during fall months consistent with EU observations.

 

The project demonstrated that vertical transmission of SE infection from breeders was nonexistent with horizontal transmission due to defects in biosecurity, maintaining infection in the industry.

It is a matter of record that all pullets are vaccinated against SE.  There is no mandatory stamping of eggs as in the EU to establish traceability.  There are no regulations relating to washing of eggs.  The absence of a cold chain may contribute to proliferation of SE within the shell during prolonged storage. Deficiencies were identified in the education of consumers and food workers on correct handling and preparation of eggs and recipes containing eggs and egg products.

*Shachaf, B. et al. Prevalence and risk factors for Salmonella infection in layer flocks in Israel between 2018 and 2023. Poultry Science. Doi.org.10.1016/j.psj 2026.10686.             


 

The UK to Initiate HPAI Vaccine Trials

According to Dr. Christine Middlemiss, Chief Veterinary Officer for the UK, a trial will be initiated to evaluate commercially available vaccines administered to turkeys under field conditions.  Concurrently, the Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (analogous to the USDA) will evaluate surveillance, and other control measures.  The vaccine trial will also serve as a measure of the resistance imposed by importing nations to a controlled vaccination program carried out in accordance with the World Organization of Animal Health recommendations. 

 

Dr. Middlemiss stated, “This targeted trial is going to be really key for our understanding of how HPAI vaccines can be effectively used for disease control in the U.K.”  She added, “Vaccines have the potential to be a really valuable additional tool in helping us protect birds from infection.”

 

The UK trial that will be implemented over a six-month period, follows similar successful testing of vaccination against HPAI in the Netherlands and extensive administration of vaccines for ducks in France.

Unlike segments of the U.S. poultry industry, the British Poultry Council is enthusiastically supporting the UK initiative.


 

Commentary


European Commission Pivoting from “Stamping Out” of Catastrophic Diseases

Veterinary regulators in nations within the European Union have traditionally applied mass depopulation (“stamping out”) of herds and flocks in the event of outbreaks of catastrophic diseases.

 

Experience in the U.K. following the emergence of foot and mouth disease in 2001 led to the wholesale depopulation of 6 million dairy and meat animals.  The immense cost for compensation, decontamination and the social reaction resulted in a reappraisal and a decision to employ biosecurity and ring immunization in the event of a future outbreak. 

 

Pcture
Location of diagnosed and recorded HPAI outbreaks in Europe with an epidemiologic relationship between wild birds and poultry 

Mortality in migratory marine birds in the EU precedes outbreaks in commercial flocks

 

 

The cost and evident failure to eliminate Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza which is now regarded as a panornitic is seasonally reintroduced by migratory birds and reservoir species that disseminate infection. Accepting the epidemiologic realities has led to a reconsideration of the control of this now endemic infection that has been understandably refractory to eradication.

 

A new approach by the European Commission is termed “vaccination-to-live”.  This program would employ vaccination, biosecurity and quarantine with limited depopulation to control the infection.

 

The European Union recognizes the need to negotiate with importing nations to establish realistic rules for trade and to prevent unjustified restrictions on nations within the EU that elect to apply preventive immunization.

The change in EU policy relates to costs of traditional “stamping out”, public condemnation of what is regarded now as unnecessary depopulation. 

 

The change in policy follows completed or in-progress trials of HPAI vaccination in many countries including Holland and France and the intended program in the UK.  The availability of rapid testing and a range of commercial vaccines applying the DIVA strategy should displace anachronistic restrictions on vaccination of flocks against HPAI.


 
Dr. Simon M. Shane
Simon M. Shane
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