Egg-News

Editorial


The People Have Spoken

Both in the plurality and by state, the incoming President and his Administration have a clear mandate.  Let us hope that stability in both domestic and foreign policy will prevail and that prosperity will improve.  Initial indications from the stock market suggest approval of policies advocated during the pre-election period.  The concurrent rise in interest rates predicts that borrowing will escalate and that the national debt will continue its upward trajectory to become a problem for our children and grandchildren.

 

The overwhelming consideration for the agricultural sector will be the proposed imposition of protective and in some cases punitive tariffs that will restrict exports of commodities.  With respect to soybeans, Brazil and Argentina represent efficient competitors with adequate production. With the loss of the market represented by China and some other nations, prices will fall to the disadvantage of row crop farmers but will benefit livestock producers including broilers, turkeys and eggs.  Since the broiler industry exports leg quarters, basically a commodity, most importers who are unaffected by U.S. tariffs will continue to buy the product, based on need and price.

 

The imposition of tariffs will increase the price of imported equipment, especially over the short term, but will ultimately encourage local manufacture and fabrication.

 

There will be profound changes in policy and operation at USDA.  It is hoped that the lame duck session of the 118th Congress will produce a viable Farm Bill, delayed since 2023, with most provisions having expired at the end of September.  Benefits that have been extended to minorities and small producers in the form of special programs that are essentially giveaways will cease under the new Administration, focusing on productivity and rationality and less on ideological considerations.  The move towards “restructuring” the meat and poultry industries will disappear with large plants operated by the major producers continuing to provide the bulk of red meat. Numerous current antitrust activities will be terminated with replacement of extremists in the FTC and DOJ, exercising their respective sociopolitical agendas.

 

The question of immigration will require balance.  It is hoped that a comprehensive review of policy will lead to enactment of fair and constructive legislation.  While it is considered appropriate to deport criminals and those who have illegally entered the Nation, it must be remembered that agriculture relies on foreign labor.  Legal routes to entry and employment must be revised and extended but should also be strictly enforced.

 

The incoming Administration has a mandate to govern according to the platform presented to the electorate.  Let us hope that both the Executive and Legislative branches recognize their responsibilities to the Nation to work cooperatively for the benefit of the total economy and especially the agricultural community responsible for our health and prosperity.

 

God bless America!


 

Egg Industry News


Egg Week

USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, November 6th 2024.

 

Market Overview

 

  • The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 12.6 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on November 1st was $3.04 per dozen down 16.9 percent from $3.66 last week. This value was approximately $1.36 above the 3-year average of $1.68 per dozen and up $1.42 from the corresponding week in 2023 at $1.45 per dozen. This past week shell egg inventory was up 4.2 percent, compared to 1.9 percent during the previous week. During the past week the NYC wholesale price increased 4.2 percent with the immediate prospect of a plateau and a possible decline in the coming three weeks. The rise in inventory with an escalation in wholesale price denotes higher consumer demand relative to supply with higher margins for producers through the remainder of the 4th quarter despite replacement of depleted flocks. Relatively higher prices compared to 2023 are attributed to previous losses due to HPAI in 2024 reducing the national flock by 17 to 19 million hens with increased seasonal demand.
  • Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. During April 2024 almost 8.4 million hens were depopulated with an additional 5.7 million during May and 3.0 million in July. With 2.8 million hens depopulated in October, as the first incident cases of the fall 2024 wave there is currently a deficit of approximately 18 to 19 million hens compared to the 2022 flock of 326 million at the onset of HPAI.
  • This past week, chains apparently narrowed the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers but they may have been reticent to place orders duet high and ascending prices despite the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels will depend on constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline through November into the Christmas surge. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
  • Total industry inventory was up by 4.0 percent overall this past week at 1.65 million cases with a concurrent 4.7 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 4.4 percent fall during the preceding week attributed to diversion to the shell-egg market.
  • It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and in the pipeline as determined by weekly orders are probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock, especially into and after a holiday weekend.
  • The U.S. poultry industry has moved from a quiescent period regarding HPAI over the past two weeks with incident cases in northern Utah, southern Washington State and Oregon. California is recording outbreaks on a broiler-growing farms in four counties. Canada has diagnosed cases in The Fraser Valley of British Columbia and an outbreak in Saskatchewan. Over 412 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in fourteen states with more than 202 herds California. This is a cause for concern since spill-over to laying flocks have occurred in Michigan, Colorado and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI that appears to be in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
  • The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
  • On November 6th the stated total flock of 314.6 million, was up by 0.6 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets scheduled to attain production before the pre-Christmas surge in demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Utah, Washington State and Oregon it is estimated that the total flock is approximately 11 to 13 million hens lower than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.
  • The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was unchanged at $2.57 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 1.6 percent to $2.47 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be shorter as in the present situation with an upward trend in price.

 

 

The Week in Review

 

Prices

 

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on November 4th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.2 percent from last week to $4.35 per dozen. Large size was up 8.3 percent to $4.35 per dozen. Mediums were up 12.6 percent to $3.84 per dozen delivered to DCs.

 

The stock of Medium size was down 1.0 percent and the inventory of Small size was 2.1 percent lower over the past week suggesting pullet flocks placed for the November-December surge in demand have matured but with fewer younger pullets entering production. This has implications for prices during November.


 

USDA Data On Cage-Free Production For October 2024

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report. This data is correlated and interpreted in the WeeklyEggPrice and Inventory Report posted on EGG-NEWS mailed on Fridays each week.

 

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering October 2024, released on November 1st 2024, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.8 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from September 2024. Depopulation was carried out in October in Utah, Washington and Oregon as a result of HPAI. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently decreased by 0.24 million hens or 0.2 percent from September 2024 to 106.6 million, despite extensive flock depopulation during the month. Hen numbers posted by the USDA for October are questioned as to accuracy taking into account chick placements and depopulation figures released by APHIS.

 

The number of eggs collected is accepted as accurate but since the values for average hen-week production are unacceptably high this suggests that the denominator reflecting the number of hens is probably incorrect. Alternatively if conventional eggs from cages are deceptively marketed as cage-free, or if cage free eggs are packed as certified Organic, assuming an accurate number of hens over a given month, the apparent hen-week value would be disproportionally high. The respective numbers of hens claimed for organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the net contribution of chick placements 20-weeks previously, HPAI depopulation and age-related depletion and should correspond to monthly supply data and inventory extending over successive quarters. Unlike conventional cage production cage-free hens are not generally molted reducing this possible reason for error in calculating rates of production.

 

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in October 2024 was up by 0.4 percent compared to September 2024 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.9 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 0.1 percent in October 2024, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.7 percent, up from 82.4 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand. Since the proportion of pullets according to housing type is not indicated in the monthly USDA Chickens and Eggs report, it is not possible to assess the relative sizes of flocks producing under the certified organic label or other categories. There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, especially with undercounted HPAI flock depopulation.

 

Flock Size Average

(million hens)

October

2024

Average

Q3-2024

Average

Q2- 2024

Average

Q1 –

2024

Average

Q4 –

2023

Average

Q3-

2023

Certified Organic

20.8

20.0

18.8

 18.3

18.7

18.7

Cage-Free Hens

106.7

103.9

101.0

105.7

 106.4

 105.4

Total Non-Caged

127.5

123.9

119.8

124.0

 125.1

 124.1

Average Weekly Production (cases)

September

2024

October

2024

Certified Organic @ 83.9% hen/day

338,938

340,178 +0.4%

Cage-Free @ 82.7% hen/day

 1,712,778

1,715,222 +0.1%

Total Non-Caged @ 82.9% hen/day

 2,051,716

2,055,400 +0.2%

 

Average Nest Run Contract Price Cage-Free Brown

$1.70/doz. (Unchanged since July 2024)

October 2024 Range:

$1.35 to $2.35/doz. (unchanged since March 2023)

FOB Negotiated October price, grade-ready quality, loose nest-run. Price range $2.41 to $5.00 per dozen

Average October 2024 Value of $4.12/doz.

($2.08/doz. September 2024)

Average October Advertised promotional National Retail Price C-F, Large Brown

$3.31/doz. October 2024 (5 regions)

(was $3.23/doz. in September 2024)

USDA Based on 5 Regions, 442 stores

 Excluding NW, AK and HI.

 High: $3.75/doz. (NE. 110 stores)

 Low: $2.50/doz. (SC. 12 stores)

 

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for October 2024 averaged $4.12 per dozen, up by 98.0 percent from $2.08 per dozen in September 2024, reflecting higher demand relative to supply. The October 2024 advertised U.S. retail price for cage-free eggs over five regions (excluding NW., AK. and HI.) was $3.31 per dozen up 8 cents per dozen (2.5 percent) from September 2024 but based on only 442 stores. This compares with 659 in September and 4,484 stores in August confirming fewer promotions in October.

 

The recorded average wholesale price of $4.12 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $4.62 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average five-region advertised retail price of $3.31 corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 28.3 percent (+22.3 percent last month unless prices were raised) over the average wholesale delivered price. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs and pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices reaching $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

 

Based on the importance of cage-free production, with more than 40 percent of eggs produced, accurate and consistent figures are required. The USDA-AMS issues the Cage-Free report on volumes and prices at monthly intervals for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is obvious doubt as to the accuracy of individual monthly flock numbers in the monthly cage free reports especially with a marked change at the end of a quarter as with values for October 1st, or from the previous month without obvious cause, or alternatively when there is no change in the cage-free or organic flocks for sequential months.

 

It is suggested that USDA should consider a quarterly report with more accurate hen data. This would be more useful to the industry for planning and marketing decisions. Price data is available each week from other USDA reports.

 

Subscribers are referred to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the Egg Price and Inventory Report in EGG-NEWS E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.


 

Commodity Report

WEEKLY ECONOMY, COMMODITY & ENERGY REPORT: November 7th 2024.

 

OVERVIEW

 

The prices for corn and soybeans were moderately higher over the past week reversing the trend from the previous week. Soybeans were up 1.8 percent and corn up 3.6 percent. Corn and soybean prices were influenced by uncertainty over yields in Brazil and Argentine. There was minimal response to the October WASDE Report. Farmers are selling both old and new crop to avoid further declines and to make room for the approaching 2024 harvest continuing in strength this week. There was some technical selling arising from geopolitical concerns and in response to revised projections for harvests in Brazil and Argentine. Contributory pricing factors included ongoing disruption in shipping in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, carryover from the 2023 U.S. crop, export orders and the predicted ending stocks of corn and soybeans from the 2024 crop. More than 91 percent of the 2024 corn crop is “in the bin”. Concurrently 94 percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, in advance of the five-year average. Both crops apparently have superior condition as compared to 2023. The transition from a neutral phase to a La Nina event is underway and will intensify during the remainder of the fourth quarter but will not affect the 2024 harvest. The October WASDE, incorporating the September remote USDA Survey together with the Pro Farmer August field evaluations provided updated projections of yields, with USDA updates for anticipated exports and adjusted prices for the 2024 crop.

 

At 12H00 EST on November 6th the CME corn quotation for December delivery was up 3.6 percent to 426 cents per bushel. Corn price was influenced by acreage planted, ethanol demand and the ending stock from the 2023 crop. Farm selling has increased, given the need to make room for the new crop. USDA estimated that 44 percent of old corn stock was held on farms at the beginning of September. Export orders for the current market year have increased in response to lower prices. Volumes and price are indirectly influenced by wheat availability as influenced by weather affecting the Black Sea wheat and corn crops and events in the Red Sea. Orders by China resumed at the end of the 2022-2023 market-year and continued through August, despite an increase in the Dollar Index, adding to increased ocean freight. Total exports for the new 2024-2025 market year are 31.9 percent above the first eight weeks of the 2023-2024 market year.

 

Soybeans were priced at 1,001 cents per bushel for November 2024 delivery, just attaining the 1,000-cent psychological threshold. Price was up 1.8 percent compared to 983 cents per bushel last week for November delivery. Lower prices were attributed to the projection of ending stock, farm selling and taking into account recent export orders and projections of availability from the 2024 U.S., Brazil and Argentine harvests. Total exports for the 2024-2025 market year are 6.2 percent higher than for the corresponding first eight weeks of market year 2023-2024.

 

Soybean meal was priced at $295 per ton for December delivery, down $7 per ton (-2.3 percent) from last week. Price is influenced by demand coupled with reestablished crush volume in September restoring the processing trend during the first half of 2024. Price will fluctuate to reflect the CME price for soybeans and the depressed demand for biodiesel due to oversupply and the consequential adverse financial situation in this sector. The market previously responded to the increased 2023 crop and higher stocks together with projections for 2024 in the revised October WASDE Reports updated from September.

 

On November 6th at 17H00 EDT the price for WTI was $71.90 up $2.97, (+4.3 percent) from last week. The current price now reflects recovery from Hurricane Milton. Current price is not materially affected by uncertainties and tensions in the Middle East but reassured that retaliatory action as announced by Israel did not include Iranian oil installations. Over the longer term price reflects moderate world demand for crude as economies and especially that of China have retracted requiring central bank stimulation in late August. It is evident that U.S. production is a moderating influence on World price, attaining a record average of 13.4 million barrels per day in August with ample reserves. There was fluctuation in the price of WTI through November 6th with the range during the week extending from $69.49 on November 1st up to $72.58 on November 5th.

Ample U.S. crude production is constraining domestic and international prices. The recent decline in energy costs during the past two months contributed to deflation influencing the FOMC in their decision to lower the benchmark interest rate at the September meeting.

 

Economic data released during the past quarter (Q2 GDP; PCE, Confidence, Productivity, Employment) confirm a growing economy but with a downward trajectory in inflation. Second Quarter GDP was revised upward to 3.0 percent from the previous projection of 2.8 percent. The data-driven Federal Reserve FOMC lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on September 18th. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Reserve Bank Governors indicated one or two additional reductions in the 10-year rate during 2024. The August and September Non-farm Payrolls and labor data clearly indicated the danger of prolonging the high benchmark interest rate that was negatively impacting the U.S. economy.

 

Macroeconomic U.S. factors:-

 

  • Most economists in academia and the private sector are still confident of a “soft landing” for the economy despite the release of the Q2 2024 increase in GDP to 3.0 percent and coupled with recent economic parameters including the ECI, CPI and PPI. Annual inflation as measured by CPI declined from 8.9 percent in June 2022 to 2.5 percent in August 2024. This is in part a response to a series of 11 FOMC rate raises followed by eight pauses that curbed inflation and cooled the labor market but without precipitating evident unemployment. There is obvious stability in the bank sectors in both the U.S. and Europe. Lower energy prices are contributing to deflation.
  • The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percent at the monthly FOMC meeting on September 18th, the first of a series of actions after eighth sequential pauses. The Federal Reserve commentary indicated that progress has been made in reducing the rate of inflation. The Fed lowered the rate by a further 25 basis points on November 7th as anticipated with a subsequent reduction of 25 basis points at the December meeting and extending into 2025. Chairman Powell in Congressional testimony, and at the post-meeting press conference and also documented in FOMC minutes indicated that decisions would be based on demonstrated progress in reducing inflation as confirmed by a basket of key economic data, towards an annual 2.0 percent target by mid-2025. This now appears feasible.
  • The October 30th release by the Bureau of Economic Affairs documented an advanced estimate of Q3 2024 GDP of 2.8 percent based on preliminary figures although this value will be revised. This figure compares to the Q2 GDP of 3.0 percent and the 2.9 percent value for entire 2023. The first estimate of the Q3 GDP was influenced by higher consumer spending especially on non-durable goods.
  • The October 10th release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a 0.2 percent rise over August and an annual rise of 2.4 percent. The monthly value is compared to an anticipated 0.1 percent. Core CPI (excluding food and fuel) was up 0.3 percent in September with an annual increase of 3.3 percent. Food increased 0.4 percent with eggs highlighted at 8.4 percent and chicken up 0.7 percent. For September shelter was up 0.2 percent. Notwithstanding the unexpected increase in CPI during September additional reductions in benchmark interest rates are anticipated during this quarter.
  • On October 31st the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Consumption and Expenditure Price Index for September. The core PCE (excluding food and energy) was up 0.3 percent from the previous month, and attained 2.7 percent year-over-year. The Headline PCE was up 0.2 percent from August and 2.1 percent from September 2023, a 42-month low and consistent with projections. Food at home was up 0.4 percent from September and 1.3 percent from September 2023. Food away from home was up 0.3 percent from September and 1.3 percent from September 2023. The headline PCE is closely followed by the Federal Reserve and confirms that inflation is progressively moderating but still above an annual target of 2.0 percent.
  • The September Producer Price Index for Final Demand (PPI) released on October 11th was unchanged from August against an expectation of a 0.2 percent rise. This was attributed in part to a 0.2 percent increase in services and a 1.0 percent increase in food. The PPI was up 1.8 percent over the past 12-months ending in September compared with 1.9 percent for the 12-month period through August. This is compared to a 6.4 percent increase in 2022. The core PPI value excluding volatile fuel and food, was up 0.2 percent from August and 2.8 percent over the previous 12 months.
  • A Federal Reserve release on October 17th confirmed that industrial production was lower by 0.3 percent in September compared to an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Capacity utilization was lower at 77.5 percent and was 2.2 percent below the long run 1972-2020 average.
  • The October 7th report by the Department of Commerce, Census Bureau on Durable Goods Ordered during September 2024 increased by 0.2 from August and 12.1 percent year-to-date, following a 0.6 percent decline during August. Excluding the Transportation component, new orders in September increased by 1.7 percent compared to an increase of 2.8 percent in August. Shipments of durable goods in the non-defense category were down 0.9 percent in September from the previous month ultimately to be reflected in the quarterly GDP.
  • In a November 4th release the Census Bureau confirmed that factory orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.5 percent in September and compared to a revised fall of 0.8 in August. Shipments of manufactured goods were down 0.4 percent in September.
  • The October 15thS. Census Bureau release of the advanced estimate of retail and food sales data for September was up 1.5 percent from the revised August value and up 7.7 percent over 12 months. Food service sales were up 0.7 percent from August and up 9.4 percent over 12 months. Grocery store sales were down 0.6 percent from the revised July value and up 4.0 percent over the past 12-months. The Federal Reserve FOMC closely monitors retail sales as a measure of the trend in inflation.
  • The October 31st release by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) reported a lower Manufacturing Index for October at 46.5 compared to the September value of value of 47.2. The October value was still below the bifurcation point of 50 percent between contraction and expansion. The Prices Index rose to 54.8 points in October compared to 48.3 points in September, denoting higher costs for production. U.S manufacturing does not currently reflect an improved economy, and manufacturing has yet to recover from prolonged high benchmark interest rates. The Production Index for October was 46.2 points compared to 49.8 in September.
  • On October 31st the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.8 percent increase in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) over the 3rd quarter of 2024. The year-over-year increase in wages and salaries was 3.9 percent and with benefit costs up by 5.8 percent. The ECI is closely followed by the Federal Reserve FOMC and this data justified in part the 50 basis point drop in the benchmark interest rate in September and strengthens the possibility of additional rate cuts.
  • The October 29th Consumer Confidence Report prepared by The Conference Board for October, confirmed a substantial increase to 108.7 from the revised September value of 992, with all segments up. The Present Situation Index measuring perceptions of current business conditions rose 14.2 points to 138.0 in October. The Expectations Index increased from a revised September value of 82.8 to 89.1 and was the fourth consecutive month above 80. Values below this threshold over consecutive months and with a downward trajectory are regarded as predicting a recession.
  • The October 11th University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October fell to 68.9 from a revised September value of 70.1. The Current Economic Index was 62.7 in October down from 63.3 in September. The Index of Consumer Expectations was 72.9 down from 74.4 in September, denoting deterioration in consumer sentiment despite the September rate cut and lower inflation. Geopolitical factors and uncertainty over the upcoming election have adversely influenced sentiment. In perspective sentiment is up 8 percent above September 2023 and 40 percent above the low in June 2022.
  • Non-farm payrolls added an unanticipated low 12,000 in October, as documented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in a November 1st This was far lower than the anticipated 113,000, due to the impact of Hurricanes and strikes should be compared to the upwardly revised September value value of 223,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 with 7.0 million unemployed and with 1.6 million in the long-term category. The real average hourly earnings value during October was $30.48. Average hours worked in manufacturing was higher at 34.3 hours per week. Labor participation was at 62.6 percent 0.1 percent lower from September. Wage rates increased 4.0 percent over 12-months. Wage rates are closely followed by the Federal Reserve FOMC.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Survey report (“JOLTS) released on October 29th estimated 7.44 million job openings at the end of September, unexpectedly below a forecast of 8.00 million and lower than the revised August value of 7.86 million. The September job openings number was the lowest since January 2021 and was down 1.2 percent over 12 months. The peak job openings figure was 12.2 million in March 2022 during COVID. The September hiring rate was 3.5 percent (5.5 million hires); the September total separation rate, 3.1 percent (5.2 million); the quit rate 1.9 percent (3.2 million); and the layoff rate 1.2 percent, up 0.2 percent from August at 1.8 million.
  • The seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims figure of 221,000 released on November 7th for the week ending November 2nd was up by 3,000 from the revised value of 218,000 for the previous week. The weekly value was lower than the Reuters estimate of 227,000. The four-week moving average increased to 227,250. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated 1.892 million continuing claims for the week ending October 25th (up 39,000 from the revised value for last week), compared to a peak on November 27th 2021 at 1.928 million. The September unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent. There is clear evidence from data over the past three months that the labor market is cooling as confirmed by Chairman Powell in Congressional testimony and release of downward revised figures for job creation. The jobs market is still tight, but with sporadic weekly fluctuation in new claims due to weather, strikes or scheduled plant shutdowns. Unemployment data has now recovered from the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton but the strike by Boeing machinists, now settled, still contributed to claims.
  • The November 7th Bureau of Labor Statistics report recorded a 2.2 percent increase in non-Farm Productivity for Q3 2024. Labor cost increased by 1.9 percent compared to 0.9 percent for Q2 2024. Output was up by 3.5 percent.
  • The ADP® reported on October 30th that private (excluding government data) payrolls increased by an unexpected 233,000 in October, up 74,000 from the revised 159,000 in September and compared to a consensus estimate of 111,000 jobs. The increase in employment was mostly in the service-related sectors amounting to 211,000 positions. Individual categories included the Transportation, Trade and Utilities sector, (+51,000); Construction, (+37,000); Hospitality, (37,000); and Professional and Business Services, (+20,000); Information (+7,000). Manufacturing was down 19,000. Annual pay was up 4.6 percent year-over-year for ‘job-stayers’, down 0.1 percent from August 2024. The increase as reported by ADP will not directly influence the probability of short-term future changes in interest rate since the number, although based on 25 million positions, excludes the public sector. Monthly ADP data is regarded as less reliable by the FOMC than the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly non-farm payroll report.

 

Crop Progress

Status of 2024 Corn and Soybean Crops

 

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on November 4th recorded 94 percent of the soybean crop harvested, an advance of 5 percent this past week. Ninety one percent of the corn crop has has been harvested, up 10 percent from last week. The crops were ahead of the 5-year averages by 9 percent and 14 percent respectively compared to the corresponding week in 2023.

 

Consistent with seasonal temperatures and previous rainfall across the Midwest and Plains states, crop condition was assumed to be unchanged during the past week. USDA did not release data on the condition of the soybean and corn crops this past week. Prospects for high corn and soybean yields were reflected in lower price projections in the October WASDE and CME futures prices for November and December (‘new crop’) delivery.  

 

Heat stress that occurred previously during silking predisposes corn to fungal infection leading to mycotoxin contamination of kernels. Unseasonal rain during the immediate pre-harvest period for corn will also contribute to the elaboration of mycotoxins. The status of the 2024 crop in regions will require monitoring at harvest in affected areas and especially if unseasonal precipitation occurs during the late harvest period.

 

Reference is made to the October 11th WASDE Report #653 retrievable under the Statistics tab and the weekly Commodity, Economy and Energy Report, this edition, document acreage to be harvested, yields, weekly prices and ending stocks. Data will be updated in the November 8th WASDE to be summarized in the November 16th edition.

 

The October WASDE presumably incorporated the results of the USDA-NASS annual remote survey on yields and final production. Pro Farmer completed their annual crop tour in mid-August. The August 23rd report estimated U.S. corn yield at 181.1 bushels per acre (compared to the Pro Farmer estimate of 183.8 bushels per acre) with a projected crop of 14.98 billion bushels. (15.20 billion bushels). The corresponding values for soybeans were a yield of 54.9 bushels per acre (53.1 bushels per acre) contributing to a 2024 crop of 4.74 billion bushels. (4.93 billion bushels).

 

EGG-NEWS will report on the harvest of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2024 season in two weeks.

 

 

 

 

 


 

Vital Farms Posts Q3 FY 2024 Financial Results

In a November 7th release, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL), a Certified B Corporation posted financial results for the 3rd quarter of FY 2024. Earnings exceeded consensus by 14 percent but revenue was consistent with estimates. This specialty egg producer competes directly with Eggland’s Best and Hidden Valley, both cooperatives and and other producers and distributors of USDA Certified Organic and pasture-raised products including the Happy Egg/Egg Innovations combination and Pete and Gerry’s. The Company experiences the same pressures of feed cost, contractor remuneration, labor and transport as competitors in a fluctuating market environment less restrained by consumer concern over inflation.

 

For Q3 FY 2024 ending September 24th 2024, net income was $7.5 million on revenue of $145.0 million with a diluted EPS of $0.17.  Comparable figures for Q3 2023 ending September 29th were net income of $4.5 million on revenue of $110.4 million with a diluted EPS of $0.11.

 

Revenue increased 31.3 percent over Q3 2023. Gross margin was 36.9 percent for the most recent quarter (35.2 percent Q3 FY 2023). Operating margin was 6.4 percent (4.7 percent in Q3 2023)

 

In commenting on Q2 results Russell Diez-Canseco, president and CEO expressed appreciation to employees and the approximately 375 contractors. He confirmed that plans for the second packing plant in Seymour, IN. were in an advanced state.

 

The Company increased guidance for FY 2024 above the August Q2 2024 report, now projecting revenue of $600 million, (was $590 million) an adjusted EBITDA of $80 million (was $75 million) with reduced capital expenditure of $30 to $40 million due to extended scheduling of projects.

 

On September 29th 2023, VITL posted assets of $344.6 million, of which $6.5 million comprised intangibles against long-term debt and lease obligations of $12.7 million. The Company had an intraday market capitalization of $1,590 million on November 7th compared to $653 million on November 7th 2023. VITL trades with a forward P/E of 208 and has ranged over a 52-week period from $11.55 to $48.41 with a 50-day moving average of $34.99.  Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 11.6 percent and profit margin 8.7 percent.  Return on assets over the past twelve months was 12.5 percent with a 22.7 percent return on equity.

 

At close of trading on November 6th pre-release, VITL was priced at $36.87. Post-release on November 7th VITL opened at $34.52, subsequently closing at $31.30.

 

Approximately 35 percent of VITL equity is held by insiders with 77 percent owned by institutions. As of October 15th 33.5 percent of the float was short.


 

HPAI Emerging in Japan

Predictably following isolation of H5N1 virus from migratory birds in Japan, outbreaks of HPAI have occurred in commercial farms.  On October 23rd an outbreak was reported on a poultry farm in Chiba Prefecture.  This was followed on October 31st by a subsequent but unrelated case in Shimane Prefecture involving a flock of 400,000 laying hens.  Appropriate depopulation and decontamination are in progress and quarantine zones have been established around the affected farms in accordance with WOAH guidelines.

 

In past seasons when flock depletion to “control” HPAI attained a noteworthy proportion of the national flock, Japan was obliged to increase importation of egg liquids  and shell eggs as breaking stock to satisfy domestic demand



 

Sprouts Farmers Market Releases 3rd Quarter FY 2024 Results

In a release dated October 30th, Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) reported results for the 3rd quarter of FY 2024 ended September 29th. Sprouts is regarded as a high-end grocery chain competing for health-conscious and affluent suburban consumers. Results for the quarter beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines and for growth in same store sales.      

 

For the period, the Company posted net income of $91.6 million on net sales of $1,946 million with a diluted EPS of $0.91.  Comparable figures for the 3rd quarter ended October 1st 2023 were net income of $65.2 million on net sales of $1,713 million with a diluted EPS of $0.64.

 

Comparing Q3 of 2024 with Q3 of the previous fiscal year, Sprouts Farmers Market increased revenue by 13.6 percent. Gross margin rose to 38.1 percent from 36.5 percent in Q3 2023.  Operating margin was 6.3 percent compared to5.1 percent for Q3 2023. Sprouts generated a comparable same-store sales growth of 8.4 percent compared to the corresponding 3rd quarter of 2023.

 

In commenting on results, Jack Sinclair, CEO, stated, “The third quarter was another exceptional performance by our Sprouts team." He added, "We are driving robust traffic growth and continue to execute at a very high level. We remain confident in our long-term growth potential."

 

Guidance for FY 2024 was raised to include net sales growth of 12.0 percent; a comparable same-store sales increase of 7.0 percent; adjusted diluted EPS of $3.64 to $3.68 and net unit growth of 33 stores requiring capital expenditure of $205 to $215million.

 

The company posted total assets of $3,585 million including $590 million as goodwill and intangibles with the balance sheet detailing long-term debt and lease liabilities of $1,562 million.

 

Sprouts Farmers Market had a market capitalization of $12,830 million on November 1st and has traded for the past 52-weeks over a range of $39.98 to $135.10 with a 50-week moving average of $110.08 and has a forward P/E of 33.8

 

On October 30th SFM closed at $119.00 and closed post-release on the following day at $128.34, up 7.8 percent. Sprouts generated a trailing twelve-month operating margin of 6.3 percent and a profit margin of 4.7 percent. Return on assets was 9.2 percent and the return on equity attained 28.6 percent.

 

Sprouts employs 35,000 and operated 428 stores in 23 states on September 29th 2024


 

Northland Boom Introduces E-Drive Vaccinator

Northland Boom has released the E-Drive Vaccinator developed specifically for aviary and barn housing.  The unit is self-propelled and is designed for optimal ergonomic operation.  The E-Drive Vaccinator uses a dual battery system to power the drive unit and the sprayer respectively allowing operation for two hours on a single charge.

 

The single boom is equipped with adjustable nozzles to achieve droplets size ranging from 20 microns (extremely fine) to 200 microns (very coarse) with a delivery rate of 4 to 28 gallons per hour depending on adjustment of nozzles.  For additional details and pricing access www.northlandboom.com or contact brent@northlandboom.com


 

Publix Releases Q3 2024 Results

Publix, a privately held, employee-owned corporation, released limited Q3 FY 2024 financial data on November 1st for the period ending September 28th 2024.  Sales for Q3 2024 attained $14,600 million, up 4.9 percent from Q3 2023 at $14,000.  Net earnings were $1,097 million compared to $835 million in Q3 of 2023, up 31.4 percent. Earnings per share attained $0.33 compared to $0.25 in Q3 2023. Comparable same store sales were up 3.4 percent compared to Q3 2023. Operating margin fror Q3 2024 was 6.9 percent compared to 7.5 percent during Q3 2023.

 

Net margin was 7.5 percent compared to the Kroger Company and Albertsons Corp. at  2.1 and 1.0 percent respectively for Q1 2024. High-end specialty chain Sprouts Farmers’ market posted a net margin of 5.0 percent for their most recently completed quarter.

 

According to the Publix SEC Q-10 submission, total assets on September 28th 2023 were $36,851 million with long-term debt, lease and finance obligations of $3,459 million.

 

Share price was adjusted upward from $16.46 to $18.05 on November 1st.

 

In commenting on results CEO Kevin Murphy stated “During the last several weeks, many of our associates and customers have faced difficult times with Hurricanes Helene and Milton,” He added “I’m so proud of our associates for the comfort they bring to our customers and their fellow associates.”


 

Economic Impact of U.S. Egg Industry

USPOULTRY recently funded an economic impact study of the U.S. poultry industry conducted by Dunham and Associates.  It was calculated that the egg industry is responsible for 164,000 jobs generating $10.5 billion annually in wages, $58 billion in economic activity and $4.7 billion in government revenue. 

 

Nath Morris president of USPOULTRY stated, “This valuable report shows the positive economic impact the poultry and egg industry has on our Nation and communities and we are pleased to continue funding the annual review.”  Data is posted on interactive websites that can be viewed and categorized by state, congressional district or county.  Access www.eggsfeedamerica.com

 


 

Bunge Posts Q3 FY 2022 Financial Results

In an October 30th release, Bunge Global Limited (BG) posted financial results for the 3rd quarter of FY 2024. The Company exceeded analysts’ projections on adjusted earnings by 7 percent. Bunge can be regarded as a bellwether for the commodities trading and processing sector. Along with competitors ADM, Cargill, Cofco and Dreyfus, all are subject to the risks of currency fluctuation, geopolitical events, climatic extremes, and increased cost of ingredients, labor and transport in a competitive world environment still restrained by COVID and conflict in the Ukraine and Middle East.

 

For Q3 of FY 2024 ending September 30th, net income was $221 million on total revenue of $12,908 million.  Comparable figures for the 3rd quarter of fiscal 2023 ending September 30th were net income of $373 million on total revenue of $14,227 million. Diluted EPS fell from $2.47 for Q3 of FY 2023 to $1.56 for the most recent quarter. Revenue was down 9.3 percent from Q3 FY 2023. Gross margin declined from 7.4 to 6.0 percent and operating margin fell from 4.2 to 2.6 percent for the most recent quarter compared to Q3 FY 2023.

 

In commenting on results Greg Heckman, CEO, stated “Our team delivered a strong third quarter, staying nimble and leveraging our global platform to capture opportunities against shifting market dynamics around the world. We made progress on key priorities, including closing the sale of the BP Bunge Bioenergia joint venture and delivering value to our shareholders through share repurchases. At the same time, we continued to advance integration planning for our announced combination with Viterra, and have made progress toward the remaining regulatory approvals. He concluded “The third quarter has again proven the value of our global footprint, operating model and approach, which underscores the benefit of further diversification across geographies and crops that our combination with Viterra will bring.”

 

Bunge retained the FY 2024 projection for adjusted EPS at $9.25 based on evident headwinds and segment performance year to date. Capital expenditure will range from $1,200 to $1,400 million.

 

On June 30th 2024, Bunge posted assets of $25,267 million, against long-term debt and other obligations of $6,415 million. The Company had an intraday market capitalization of $11,540 million on November 1st. BG trades with a forward P/E of 8.7 and has ranged over a 52-week period from $82.45 to $114.92 with a 50-day moving average of $95.61. Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 3.1 percent and profit margin 2.1 percent.  Return on assets over the past twelve months was 5.0 percent and the return on equity 10.9 percent.

 

BG closed at $87.95 on October 29th and closed at $86.86 post release on October 30th.


 

South Korea Reports HPAI on Commercial Farm

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs of South Korea, an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza was reported in a small flock of less than 1,000 chickens and ducks.  The farm is located in Donghae in the northeastern quadrant of the nation.  This is the first case reported for the fall season and five months after the last diagnosed outbreak.

 

In previous years a pattern of initial isolation of H5N1 virus from migratory waterfowl was followed by sporadic outbreaks in free-range ducks and geese and then spread to large egg and broiler farms.

 

 Effective prevention will require vaccination as an adjunct to biosecurity that is in any event inoperative for free range flocks exposed to virus shed by waterfowl.


 

Lawsuits Filed Over E. coli Contamination of McDonald’s Quarter Pounder™ Sandwiches

Predictably, affected consumers have filed lawsuits relating to foodborne infection from consumption of McDonald’s Quarter Pounder™ sandwiches. Approximately 90 cases of E. coli O157:H7 infections were diagnosed with a number of hospitalizations and two cases of hemolytic uremia syndrome and with one fatality. Following prompt identification of onions as the vehicle of infection and demonstrating that beef patties were free of contamination, McDonald’s has reintroduced the Quarter Pounder. 

 

 

In the investors’ call on October 29th, McDonald’s CEO, Chris Kempczinski, issued an apology for the outbreak although it is evident that this case is unique and that there is no evidence of negligence at this time.  The response by McDonald’s and prompt identification of the source through appropriate field epidemiologic and laboratory investigations demonstrated a capacity for identifying the cause of an outbreak and eliminating risk to consumers.



 

E.U. Deforestation Regulations Limit Sourcing by Manufacturers

In accordance with newly implemented regulations, manufacturers of food products in the E.U. must discriminate against suppliers that indirectly contribute to deforestation.  Major producers including Nestle, Unilever and Danone have indicated that they will source soybeans from nations other than Brazil based on extensive deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.  Despite the fact that the E.U. Commission has proposed a 12-month delay in implementation, importers are already purchasing from alternative sources. Hopefully the U.S. may benefit notwithstanding the GMO status of all but a sliver of our domestic production. 

 

Aprosoja representing soybean producers in Brazil has condemned the Danome decision that apparently disregards the claimed natural regeneration of Rainforest.  The group is calling for a boycott of Danone products in Brazil.  Within that nation, Danone uses local soybeans, but the European component of the Company is abiding by the E.U. directive.  The Agriculture Ministry of Brazil has characterized the E.U. directive as “discriminatory, unreasonable and untimely”.

 

If the American Soybean Association is looking for an issue to differentiate U.S. soybeans from those produced in Brazil, deforestation would appear to be an important market attribute.


 

USPOULTRY Foundation Supports Student Recruiting

The USPOULTRY Foundation has awarded grants totaling $324,215 to allow universities and colleges to recruit students to poultry-related programs.  Universities with poultry science departments will receive grants ranging from $30,000 to $50,000 each.  Twenty-two other institutions across the U.S. with poultry-related programs and significant in-state industries will receive from $2,500 to $10,000 each.

 

Jarod Morrison, Chairman of the USPOULTRY Foundation, stated, “Our industry thrives on the creativity and passion of the next generation.  By showcasing the diverse career opportunities available, we empower talented young individuals to step into leadership roles.”   He added, “The USPOULTRY Foundation recruiting grants play a crucial role in guiding colleges and universities to inspire students to pursue careers in the poultry sector.


 

Hotraco Innovations for EuroTier

During the 2024 EuroTier Exhibition, Hotraco will introduce three new products to optimize farm management: -

 

  • The Fortica MAX Controller includes a 12-inch touchscreen and a fast processor.
  • The Fortica CEC Egg Collection System –maintains smooth egg flow, reducing downgrades.  The Fortica CEC can be customized for specific farm applications.  The Fortica CEC controller operates with electronic monitoring of the number of eggs on specific belts with automatic adjustment of speed to match collection with packing rate.
  • iHotraco Farm Manager – This system enables monitoring of all barns using a single dashboard and allows comparison of actual production against standards.  The iHotraco Farm Manager incorporates warnings for deviations from standard and provides advanced data analysis for management decisions.

 



 

USAPEEC Organizes Trade Mission from Mexico

On October 22nd, a delegation from Mexico visited Iowa as arranged and coordinated by USAPEEC to establish commercial contacts and to gain a perspective of egg production in the state.  After meetings with Iowa Department of Agriculture officials including the Secretary, Mike Naig, visitors interacted with faculty at Iowa State University and visited Versova, a leading egg producer in the state.


 

USDA Disbursing Crop Insurance Payments

Producers in Florida holding crop insurance through the Hurricane Insurance Protection-Wind Index Program and also the Tropical Storm option will receive $143 million in indemnities as a result of Hurricane Milton.  This program has disbursed $776 million to farmers in 2024 to date with Florida receiving $340 million since the program was introduced in 2020.  Hurricane Milton severely damaged citrus, and cotton crops and timber as previously reported.

 

In announcing the payments, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack stated, “Florida farmers, livestock producers and forestland owners have been hit hard by hurricanes this year and we are continuing our efforts to help producers recover following hurricanes including Milton.”  In addition to crop insurance the USDA Farm Service Agency is offering additional disaster assistance including loans for forest rehabilitation, replacement of fences and herd mortality.

 


 

Boar’s Head Products Replaced by Supermarkets

Given negative publicity and lawsuits following the outbreak of listeriosis attributed to Boar’s Head products, a number of supermarket chains have apparently replaced the brand with alternatives.  Schnucks Markets intends to convert to Dietz and Watsons as a supplier with the transition complete by the end of November.

 

In addition to Boar’s Head, A number of supermarket chains have been named as co-defendants in numerous lawsuits arising from the extensive outbreak of listriosis.

 

It is possible that lawsuits will be consolidated into a class action.  Given the revelations relating to suboptimal plant hygiene and management. Boar’s Head will have difficulty in defending claims alleging negligence.

 

The initial diagnosis and traceback to the Boar’s Head plant in, Jarratt,VA. resulted in a recall of up to 7 million lbs. of product, hopefully averting further cases.



 

Subway Sued for Misrepresentation

Following dismissal of lawsuits against McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Taco Bell, a new lawsuit alleging misrepresentation in advertising has been filed against Subway.  According to the complaint, advertisements show the Subway Steak and Cheese sandwich “with meat bursting from within reaching as about as high as the surrounding bread.”  The lawsuit claims that the reality is a more meager inclusion of meat with an allegation that advertisements show double the filling than actuality.

 

QSRs should obviously exercise more restraint in their depictions of sandwiches since they create anticipation that is not recognized by customers.


 

USAPEEC Arranges AI Seminar in Bogota

USAPEEC Latin America participated in organizing a seminar on avian influenza held in Bogota, Columbia from August 21st through August 24th.  Thirty-three participants representing government and veterinary agencies in 14 Central and South American countries participated. 

 

Topics presented included the National Poultry Improvement Plan, the National Avian Influenza Prevention Surveillance and Control Program and the National Plan for AI Response.  Presentations by APHIS confirmed the measures employed by USDA to ensure a safe, secure and wholesome poultry supply from the U.S.

 

 It is evident that the emphasis of the USAPEEC the program was on acceptance of the World Organization of Animal Health avian influenza standards that allow for trade during ongoing AI outbreaks. The overriding principles should be acceptance of ‘compartmentalization’ for breeding operations and ‘regionalization’ for commercial production destined for export.

 


 

Purdue University Agricultural Economy Index Rises in October

The November 5th release of the Purdue University-CME Group Economy Barometer Index for row-crop production showed an unexpected rise in October by a substantial 27 points to 115 points. The Index of Current Conditions was up 19 points from September to 95. The Future Expectations Index was up 30 points points to 124. The Index is derived from the responses of 400 U.S. farmers and was conducted from October 14th to 18th.

 

Evident conclusions from the survey are that farmers were more optimistic in October compared to September but there are still concerns over the prices for their commodities despite (but due to) bountiful yields in 2024. In contrast sentiment is reinforced by declining inflation, lower interest rates and hence production costs. The outstanding concerns were:-

  • A decline in prices for corn and soybeans reflecting disparity between supply and demand
  • Declining prospects for exports with competition from South American producers and declining demand by China
  • High prices for seed, fertilizer and other inputs
  • The prospect of higher energy costs with turbulence in the Middle East
  • The outcome of the 2024 national election creating uncertainty over farm policy and support
  • Failure of Congress to pass a Farm Bill
  • Decreased demand for biofuels

 

Many respondents indicated that they would carry higher debt burdens through 2024 and into 2025 mainly due to increased costs of inputs including seed, fuel and fertilizer for the current season. More than half of the participants considered that the financial condition of their farms was inferior to 2023 with the Farm Financial Performance Index at 90 for October 2024 compared to 93 for October 2023. The September 2024 value was only 68, indicating a surge in positive sentiment from the preceding month.  


 

Depressed Asian Palm Oil Production Will Pressure Soybean Oil Prices

Indonesia and Malaysia, collectively responsible for 85 percent of palm oil production are experiencing problems in maintaining output. Recent data suggests a decline of approximately five percent year to date.  This is due to drought induced by the El Nino event, aging trees, cost reductions and a smaller available labor pool.

 

The USDA October Oil Crops Outlook confirmed that palm oil stocks declined 1.5 million tons from September to 16.1 million tons.  Production in Indonesia for the 2024-2025 season well down by 500,000 metric tons to 46.5 million metric tons. 

 

Indonesia will use a higher proportion of palm oil in biodiesel increasing blend from 25 percent to 40 percent. This will reduce availability and lead to higher vegetable oil prices.


 

Commentary


USDA to Implement Bulk Milk Testing for H5N1 in Dairy Herds

Very belatedly USDA will introduce a more extensive program of surveillance for H5N1 Strain B3.13 infection responsible for bovine influenza.  Molecular studies on isolates obtained from herds in Texas during March suggest that the infection was introduced in December 2023 but was only recognized as a clinical entity three months later.  USDA introduced a requirement to test herds before interstate movement of dairy animals.  APHIS considers that this precaution has limited the prevalence of the virus to 14 states with California, Idaho and Utah reporting incident cases. To date 412 herds have been diagnosed with 202 cases in California centered on the Central Valley.

 

Contrary to policy for poultry, USDA supports the development and deployment of an H5N1 vaccine for dairy herds with candidate vaccines currently under evaluation.

 

Given the small number of cases among human contacts of infected dairy herds, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention justifiably consider that risks to the general population are minimal.  State and local agencies are encouraging the correct use of PPE to limit infections among workers. Surveillance of farm workers and their contacts is ongoing.


 
Dr. Simon M. Shane
Simon M. Shane
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