Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL), a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, Trade Subcommittee has introduced the Reclaiming Congressional Trade Authority Act.  This would limit the authority of any administration to impose tariffs on national security grounds to a duration of 120 days unless confirmed by Congress. The proposed legislation would encompass Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or the Trading with the Enemy Act . The Trade Authority Act introduced into the House parallels similar legislation in the Senate introduced by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA).

The Bill would require any administration to provide Congress with the objective of any proposed tariffs imposed under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974.  Congress would be able to block tariffs through a joint resolution of disapproval.

Legislation restricting the powers of the President to unilaterally impose tariffs is supported by the National Retail Federation.  The Senior Vice-president for Government Relations, David French commented, “We agree with the need to deliver fair and balanced trade deals but taxing Americans isn’t the answer – especially without a single vote from Congress.”  He added, “This legislation represents an important step forward.  We urge members of both parties to join this effort and protect hard-working Americans from a growing trade war that could destroy thousands of jobs and raise costs for families across the country.”

The National Retail Federation is a leading opponent of tariffs emphasizing that they are effectively taxes imposed on consumers.  Tariffs also increase the cost of parts and materials used to manufacture items in the U.S., reducing company margins and eventually leading to layoffs.

Prior to the June meeting between President Trump and President Xi at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, the National Retail Federation determined that the proposed tariff on an additional $300 billion on goods imported from China would add $4.4 billion annually for apparel, $3.7 billion for toys, $2.5 billion for footwear and $1.6 billion for household appliances.  Currently tariffs of 25 percent have been imposed on $250 billion in items imported from China.  These tariffs will remain, the proposed tariffs on the additional $300 billion in imports has been deferred while trade talks continue.

China has indicated that some concessions on structural issues will be offered in negotiations but progress will only be made if existing tariffs are relaxes or rescinded. It appears that the trade dispute has assumed the proportions of a stalemate to the mutual detriment of both nations.

Prices are Volatile, Trending Up Following China Negotiations, Release of July USDA-WASDE Projections and Acreage Report

The following quotations for July and September 2019, were posted by the CME at close of trading on Friday July 12th compared with values for Friday July 5th (in parentheses) shortly after release of the acreage report.

The market responded with an upward turn following release of the USDA Acreage report on June 28th followed by the July WASDE on July 11th reversing the move down for soybeans the previous week. Corn planted in 2019 is up 3 percent over 2018 to 91.7 million acres, albeit late, due to saturated fields that will reduce yield. Planted soybean acreage is down 10 percent compared to 2018 to 80.0 million acres, the lowest since 2013.

Soybean and soybean meal prices advanced this past week despite any definitive outcome from the bilateral discussions between the Presidents of China and the U.S. on June 29th during the G-20 Meeting in Japan. A token order of 0.5 million metric tons of soybeans was placed by government-affiliated traders in China on June 28th. This quantity should be compared with 21.4 million metric tons delivered to China in 2017 before the advent of the trade dispute.

The commodities market recorded a sharp increase in the futures prices of corn soybeans and soybean meal after the release of the July WASDE on Tuesday 11th. The mid-May run-up in prices was due to slow progress in planting and consequential projection of reduced yields.

The absence of any substantial news regarding resolution of the trade dispute with China and previous conflicting statements by White House spokespersons over the months since the dispute began is disconcerting to the commodities market and

has contributed to price fluctuation.

The USDA Crop Progress Report released July 15th documented progress in both corn and soybeans after a slow start to planting that is expected to negatively impact yields as denoted by current crop condition. High topsoil moisture levels are evident in comparison with the corresponding week in 2018. CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2019 harvest in October.

WEEK ENDING

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing the first five months of 2019 with the corresponding period in 2018:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS DURING

JANUARY-MAY 2019 COMPARED WITH 2018

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during the first five months of 2019 increased by 14.3 percent in volume but declined 25.5 percent in total value compared to Jan.-May 2018. Unit value was lower by 34.7 percent or 44 cents per dozen for the five-month comparison between 2018 and 2019. The top two importing nations represented 74.8 percent of volume and 70.2 percent of total value.

Hong Kong was the leading importer of shell eggs in Jan.-May 2019, with 19.7 million dozen representing 37.5 percent of volume and 40.2 percent of the total value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs with an average unit value of $0.83 cents per dozen.

Canada was the 2nd-ranked importer during Jan.-May 2019 with 19.6 million dozen representing 37.3 percent of volume and 30.0 percent of total value at $13.1 million with a unit value of $0.67 per dozen. Shell eggs shipped to Canada represent the difference between domestic demand and production, limited by their national controlled marketing system

Mexico was a distant third in rank during Jan.-May 2019 with 12.0 percent of volume and 10.8 percent of total value, with a unit value of $0.83 per dozen.

The Caribbean Region represented 5.9 percent of export volume for the first five months of 2019. This region was down 18.4 percent in volume and 51.7 percent in total value compared with 2018. The unit value of shell eggs exports to the Caribbean averaged $1.39 per dozen for Jan.-May 2019 ($1.93 over entire 2018) which appears inordinately high compared with the average export realization, warranting validation of USDA data or an investigation of the price discrepancy. It is possible that a proportion of shell eggs enumerated may have been fertile hatching eggs.

The Middle East Region imported 2.1 million dozen during the first five months of 2019 valued at $2.0 million with a unit price of $0.95 per dozen. Volume and value were respectively lower by 32.3 percent and 33.3 percent compared with the corresponding period in 2018. Israel emerged as an importer at the end of 2018 attributed to depletion of domestic flocks due to SE.

EGG PRODUCTS

The total volume of exported egg products during Jan.-May 2019 decreased by 16.2 percent and total value was lower by 28.4 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Unit value decreased by 14.7 percent to $3,121 per ton from $3,660 obtained during Jan.-May 2018. This decline reflected the relationship between World supply and demand.

During Jan.-May 2019, 1st-ranked Japan represented 27.3 percent of the total U.S. export volume with 3,362 m. tons, a decrease of 36.0 percent compared with the first five months of 2018.

Mexico was the second ranked importer during Jan.-May 2019 receiving 2,522 metric tons comprising 20.5 percent of volume and 15.9 percent of value exported with a unit price of $2,419 per metric ton

Canada represented the 3rd rank among importers purchasing 2,370 m. tons representing 19.3 percent of volume and 13.0 percent of value ($5.0 million) exported with a unit price of $2,109 per m. ton. During the five-month period in 2019 Canada increased volume by 20.9 percent and value by 8.7 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2018.

During the first five months of 2019, 4th-ranked E.U-28 imported 432 m. tons of egg products, representing 3.5 percent of volume and 7.5 percent of value shipped during Jan.-May 2019

COMMENTS

Successful conclusion of NAFTA negotiations led to the trilateral USMCA, announced on September 30th 2018 but will have to be ratified by the legislatures of Canada and the U.S. Exports of shell eggs and egg products to our neighbors were valued at $74.7 million for 2017 and $89.7 million for 2018 and $28.8 million over the first five months of 2019.

Prospects for long-term exports of shell eggs will be limited by the willingness of importers to accept the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) principle of regionalization in the event of exotic Newcastle disease or isolation of H5 or H7 avian influenza, irrespective of pathogenicity. Most importing nations, with the noted exception of China, are now applying regionalization and permitting imports on a county or state-exclusion basis following H5 or H7 AI infection.

The fourteen-month ongoing series of incident cases of END in approximately 480 backyard flocks, predominantly fighting cocks has apparently ended. Extension of the infection to four commercial farms in Southern California in late 2018 did not impact exports since importers are complying with the OIE principle of regionalization.

Generally pasteurized egg products should not be subject to any embargo imposed following reports of AI or Newcastle disease.

Prices are Volatile, Trending Down Following China Negotiations, Release of June USDA-WASDE Projections and Acreage Report

The following quotations for July and September 2019, were posted by the CME at close of trading on Friday July 5th compared with values for Friday June 28th (in parentheses) shortly after release of the acreage report.

The market responded with a downward turn following release of the USDA Acreage report on June 28th. Corn planted in 2019 is up 3 percent over 2018 to 91.7 million acres, albeit late, due to saturated fields that will reduce yield. Planted soybean acreage is down 10 percent compared to 2018 to 80.0 million acres, the lowest since 2013.

Soybean and soybean meal prices retreated this past week on lack of any definitive outcome from the bilateral discussions between the Presidents of China and the U.S. on June 29th during the G-20 Meeting. A token order of 0.5 million metric tons of soybeans was placed by government-affiliated traders in China on June 28th. This quantity should be compared with 21.4 million metric tons delivered to China in 2017 before the advent of the trade dispute.

The commodities market recorded a sharp increase in the futures prices of corn soybeans and soybean meal after the release of the June WASDE on Tuesday 11th. The mid-May run-up in prices was due to slow progress in planting and consequential projection of reduced yields.

The absence of any definitive news regarding resolution of the trade dispute with China and previous conflicting statements by White House spokespersons over the months since the dispute began is disconcerting to the commodities market and

has contributed to price fluctuation.

Changes in the price of corn, soybeans and soybean meal this past week were:-

COMMODITY CHANGE FROM PAST WEEK

Corn: July quotation up 12 cents per Bu            (+2.7 percent)

Soybeans: July quotation down 28 cents per Bu (-3.1 percent)

Soybean Meal: July quotation down $9 per ton.  (-2.9 percent)

• For each 10 cent per bushel change in corn:-

The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen

The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per pound live weight

• For each $10 per ton change in the price of soybean meal:-

COMMENTS

Subscribers are directed to the review of the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report posted in this edition for the rate of crop emergence and condition.

Some concessions have been promised by China on reducing coercive trade practices and clarifying dispute resolution although U.S. negotiators claim that China has backtracked on structural issues hence the threat of more stringent tariffs and embargos on trade with tech companies in China. From an agricultural perspective the question of delays by China in approving new GM cultivars has yet to be settled.

Prices will be influenced by the trend in stock levels, area planted in 2019 and early crop progress in the face of flooding.

For comparison commodity prices posted by the Dalian Mercantile Exchange in $US per short ton* during the first week of July 2019 with comparable CME values in parentheses were:

Corn $250 ($155)

Soybeans $447 ($300)

Soybean meal $463 ($304)

*(conversion Rmb6.8=$US1)

The June 11th 2018 WASDE Report #589, projected that 89.7 million acres of corn would be planted in 2019 to produce 13.68 Billion bushels. The June 28th Acreage report increased the area to 91.7 million acres. By proportion this will increase the 2019 crop to 13.83 million bushels. The WASDE projected 84.6 million acres to be planted to soybeans. The USDA Acreage report reduced this to 80.0 million acres. The 2019 soybean crop projected to attain 4.15 Billion bushels in the June WASDE must by proportion be reduced to 3.92 Billion bushels. The levels of production and ending stocks for the two commodities are based on current planting data, projections of harvest area and yield. The WASDE to be published in mid-July will confirm the projected yields and ending stocks of corn and soybeans respectively.

See the WASDE posting summarizing the June 11th USDA-WASDE Report #589 under the STATISTICS tab documenting price projections and quantities of commodities to be harvested, processed and exported from the 2019 harvest. The Quarterly USDA Grain Stocks Report was posted on the July 5th edition of EGG-NEWS.

Unless shipments of corn and especially soybeans to China resume in volume, which is unlikely, the financial future for row-crop farmers appears bleak despite the release of two tranches in 2018 amounting to $8 billion as "short-term" compensation for producers of commodities. A further allocation of $14.5 billion to producers under the Market Facilitation Program was announced on May 23rd for the 2019 crop. Patriotism can only go so far----.

The USDA Crop Progress Report released July 8th documented emergence of corn and progress in both corn and soybeans after a slow start that is expected to negatively impact yields as denoted by current crop condition. High topsoil moisture levels are evident in comparison with the corresponding week in 2018. CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2019 harvest in October.

WEEK ENDING

USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, July 10th 2019.

• Hen Numbers in Production up 0.1 million to 325.3 million.
• Shell Inventory Up 2.9 percent from the Past Week.
• USDA Midwest Benchmark Generic Prices for Extra Large and Large Down 11.7 and 12.4 percent respectively from Past Week. Mediums Down 15.4 Percent.
• Price of Breaking Stock (23 cents per dozen) and Checks (7 cents per dozen) Unchanged. Both Categories Substantially Below Cost of Production

OVERVIEW

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports posted on July 8 th the Midwest wholesale prices for Extra Large, and Large were down 11.7 and 12.4 percent respectively to averages of 58.5 and 56.5 cents per dozen. Mediums were down 15.4 percent to 32.5 cents per dozen, all below the USDA average 5-Region nest-run benchmark of 59.7 cents per dozen. The progression of prices during 2019 is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The July 8th USDA Egg Market News Report (Vol. 66: No. 27) documented a USDA Combined Region value rounded to the nearest cent, of $0.71 per dozen delivered to warehouses for the week ending July 1st. This average price lags current Midwest weekly values by one week. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $0.65 per dozen, above the USDA 5-Region benchmark cost of production for nest-run. At the high end of the range, price in the South Central Region attained $0.74 per dozen. The USDA Combined Price last week was $0.49 per dozen below the three-year average and $0.50 per dozen below the corresponding week in 2018.

OVERVIEW

The July 11th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed at 83.6 million acres (81.8 million in 2018) and is up 1.4 percent from the June WASDE. In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 79.3 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018) with the reduction due to uncertainty over the export market.

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 166.0 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018) and unchanged from the June WASDE despite late planting and delayed development. Soybean yield was projected at 48.5 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018), 5 percent lower than in the June WASDE projection. These values presume suitable growing conditions, the time of sowing and standard rates of germination.

The July USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 20.0 percent percent from the June WASDE to 2,010 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 23.9 percent lower at 795 million bushels. Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations. It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation, a prospect that appears in question given lower demand from China and the failure to commit to purchases following the June meeting between President Trump and Premier Xi at the G-20 Meeting in Osaka.

 

Review of June 2019 Production Costs and Statistics.

June 2019 USDA ex-farm nest-run benchmark price was up 66.7 percent from May 2019 to 38.5 cents per dozen but still below the cost of production. Low price is consistent with seasonal purchase trends and oversupply.

• June 2019 USDA average nest-run production cost was 6.0 percent higher than May 2019 at 63.2 cents per dozen.

• June 2019 USDA benchmark nest-run loss decreased from May 2019 to 24.7 cents per dozen.

• June national flock ( over 30,000 hens/farm) was down 5.7 million or 1.7 percent to 319.0 million.

INTRODUCTION.

Summary tables for the latest USDA June 2019 prices and flock statistics made available by the EIC on July 11th 2019 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous June 12th 2019 posting reflecting May 2019 cost and production data.

In a press release dated July 11th closely held Cargill Inc. reported results for FY 2019 ending May 31st. For the period net earnings were $2.56 billion on revenue of $113.5 billion representing a net margin of 2.3 percent. Comparative values for FY 2018 were net earnings of $3.10 billion on sales of $114.6 billion.

The Animal Nutrition and Protein segment was a major contributor to operating profit although impacted in North America by spring flooding. Value-added egg products demonstrated strong demand. Although global poultry results lagged Cargill invested in a cooked chicken products plant in China. Feed demand was lowered in China as a result of African swine fever.

The Origination and Processing segment was adversely impacted by disruption in commodity markets resulting from the trade dispute with China.

The Industrial and Financial Services segment benefitted from improved risk management and trade finance.

Commenting on results, Dave MacLennan,  CEO and Chairman stated "Throughout the year, we faced a very challenging global business environment that slowed earnings. Still, we improved performance in several food and financial businesses and significantly reduced costs companywide. In particular, the North American protein business, which led earnings by combining strong demand for beef and eggs with consumer insights that helped customers win in local markets”. He concluded “The company is focused on what it can best control: moving faster, raising efficiency, and creating innovative solutions for customers. We want to accelerate growth in market segments where our expertise will help us create more value with our customers”.

The first Ovotrack Academy for the U.S. was held at S & R Egg Farms Processing Center in Cold Springs, WI.  The emphasis was on application of Ovotrack technology to Moba graders.  Topics reviewed included:

• Basics of operation,
• Synchronization,
• Scanning and integration of Ovotrack systems into plant operation

 
The program included classroom sessions, breakout discussions, a tour of the new processing and packing facility and individual counseling provided by Ovotrack support personnel.
 
Job Beekhuis founder and CEO of the Company commented, “It’s great to see customers learning from each other while also giving us the opportunity to improve our solutions to serve the egg industry even better.”

In recent years, salad sprouts have been identified as a vehicle for foodborne infection.  Accordingly the Center for Food Safety and Nutrition (CFSAN) has issued “Draft Guidance for Reducing Microbial Food Safety Hazards in the Production of Seeds For Sprouting.”  After extensive evaluation, FDA-CFSAN has incorporated common-sense directions but of questionable efficacy to be adopted by the industry.  These include training of personnel in food safety, providing clean and well maintained toilet and hand washing facilities, storing seed for sprouting separately from seed for other uses and insuring that food contact surfaces are impervious and can be clean.  An important directive is that seed should be transported in a manner that minimizes contamination with pathogens.

Although the recommendations contained in the draft guidance are well-meaning, they do not rise to the level of a critical control point in an HACCP program.  The final product as distributed to food manufacturers and the food service industry must be treated by a process that significantly reduces or eliminates foodborne bacteria including Salmonella, E. coli and Listeria.  Some form of fumigation or alternatively electron beam treatment is obviously required.

Conbrasul, a bi-annual conference for the Brazilian egg industry, took place from June 16th to 19th 2019 in Gramado, Brazil.

Job Beekhuis, CEO of Ovotrack reviewed the growing importance of traceability for the egg industry describing technology, solutions and global trends.

In 2018, farmers producing almonds and walnuts were impacted by the high tariffs imposed by China, resulting in diminished sales to that market. At the beginning of 2017, 25 percent of the California walnut crop was exported to China. California produces 80 percent of the world’s almonds and 70 percent of the harvest is exported.

The situation was exacerbated on June 15th when India imposed a 20 percent tariff on U.S. nuts along with 26 other products including apples and lentils. Fortunately, India has delayed implementing the retaliatory tariffs pending successful resolution of bilateral negotiations. The tariffs add 20 cents to a pound of shelled almonds and 4 cents per pound for unshelled product.

Growers face a 5 percent tariff in Europe representing a highly competitive market. Prices for walnuts and almonds are at the lowest level in 25 years. There are a number of egg producers in California who operate almond orchards and the present downturn coincides with low prices for eggs representing double jeopardy.

The annual USPOULTRY Women’s Leadership Conference will be held August 15th to 16th at the Hilton Sandestin Beach Golf Resort and Spa in Destin, FL.

Patricia Hawkins, Hatchery Manager for Tyson Foods, Mississippi commented “To be an effective leader, you have to constantly pursue personal and professional development which is one reason why this annual conference exists – to give women the resources to become the leaders our industry needs”.

The program this year offers topics on communication, interpersonal strength, an industry overview, critical legal issues facing working women and leadership.

Registration information is available on www.uspoultry.org.

In an investor call, Sean Connolly, Chairman and CEO of Conagra Brands indicated that the Company will extend their footprint in vegetable-based alternatives to meat through their Gardein brand. Acquired with the Pinnacle Foods acquisition, sales for Gardein will exceed  $150 million in 2019 with a four-fold growth over the past five years. Conagra Foods will follow a strategy of including vegetable protein in meat products following the “hybrid approach” to be used by competitors including Tyson Foods.

Conagra Brands manufactures Gardein products in Richmond, B.C. Canada and Hagerstown, MD, but additional capacity will be added in the fall of 2019. Connolly noted that although vegetable-based burgers have received considerable publicity, there are other products including hot dogs and sausages that will be marketed as hybrids. Conagra will also be able to leverage Gardein technology to other items in the Conagra range including Marie Callender’s, Healthy Choice, Bird’s Eye and also for private brands.

Hy-Line International, specializing in egg-production genetics, celebrated the completion of its newest research farm on June 27th with federal, state and local dignitaries in attendanceat a ribbon-cutting ceremony. Named for the visionary and company founder, Dr. Henry A. Wallace, this state-of-the-art investment located in central Iowa, is required to maintain genetic progress in Hy-Line layers sent to more than 120 nations.

In a Company press release Jonathan Cade, President of Hy-Line International stated “We have a substantial responsibility in the effort to feed a growing global population with an inexpensive and nutritious source of protein – the egg,” He added “The addition of the Dr. Henry A. Wallace Farm allows us continued innovation and genetic progress in Hy-Line layer genetics to accomplish this.”

Dr. Danny Lubritz, Director of Research and Development for Hy-Line International commented “We are making significant strategic changes in the Hy-Line breeding program to accelerate the rate of genetic progress,” He opined “Egg production and eggshell quality show higher genetic variation at older ages. The pedigree birds housed on the Dr. Henry A. Wallace Farm will be evaluated for these traits, among others, to help ensure continued genetic progress in persistency and shell strength.”

The addition of the Dr. Henry A. Wallace Farm increases the population of research birds from which to identify the top performing individuals to populate the next generation. As a result of improved selection intensity, Hy-Line varieties are gaining increased egg numbers, persistency, shell strength, egg weight and feed efficiency.

OVO-Vision of Holland has released an OVO-Vision Cloud version of their software to improve collection and interpretation of data. The system is based on Microsoft® dynamics and has been adapted specifically for the egg industry.

OVO-Vision Cloud is capable of recording different sizes and configurations of consignments, including graded and ungraded eggs. The system is capable of differentiating among a range of prices taking into account contracts, agreements and market arrangements. OVO-Vision Cloud interfaces with both Moba and Staalkat graders.

OVO-Vision is available in three packages to be selected in accordance with the needs of the packing plant. These comprise OVO-Vision Basics, Essentials and Premium. For further information, contact r.hendrikx@ovo-vision.com r click on to the OVO-Vision logo on the right side of the Welcome page.

Following a restructuring the newly formed company controlling various subsidiaries will be Giordano Holdings s.r.l. www.u.giordanoholding.com.

The subsidiaries will be:

• Giordano Poultry Plast S.p.A., manufacturing plastic equipment and components for the poultry industry.
• Valery Technologies, producing equipment to administer vaccines and therapeutic compounds in drinking water.
• Gi-Ovo BV., manufacturing egg transport equipment that can be decontaminated to maintain biosecurity.
• Plastimark SPA and Plastimark France S.A., manufacturing a range of trolleys and baskets, that can be cleaned and re-used, contributing to sustainability.

The most recent organizational structure contributes to the company philosophy embracing ethical and social values while pursuing the entrepreneurial endeavors of the Giordano family.

Recognizing the need to provide a broader range of products to attract a higher-income demographic, Walmart will now stock more specialty food brands. This decision follows the Summer Fancy Food Show held in New York in late June. Walmart has indicated that it may stock selected products and brands in a limited range of stores.

Kevin Head, VP and Division Manager of Breakfast and Bread stated “If you think about the overall breadth and scope of Walmart, over 90 percent of all Americans live within ten miles of a Walmart store. We have customers who are rich, poor and everything in between. It’s the customer that’s the driving force behind our overall strategy and that’s where you will see a lot of change being sparked.”

Walmart is also extending technical assistance to start-ups and small companies to create products that can be sold in specific geographic regions. This strategy was initially adopted by Whole Foods Market in the 1990s and resulted in disaffection and financial hardship when Amazon acquired the company 1n 2017 and effectively cancelled the program.

Laura Rush, VP and Division Manager of Frozen Brands stated “We believe the customer deserves access to everything. Not just cheap food, but good food, great food and we are trying to figure out the right recipe to make sure we do it the right way.”  

Anne L. Alonzo, president and CEO of the American Egg Board recently commented on sales volume and prices of eggs in an article published in the Summer 2019 edition of the Urner Barry Report. Ms. Alonzo emphasized the importance of Easter as the egg holiday with demand increased by home baking and entertaining. The importance of eggs during the Easter holiday is highlighted by the annual White House Egg Roll, which generates favorable publicity for the egg- producing industry.

Ms. Alonzo contrasted sales volume and prices for Easter periods from 2015 through 2019. Over the Easter period March 11th through April 7th in 2018, 242.5 dozen equivalent shell eggs were sold generating a revenue at retail of $511.4 million with a unit price of $2.10 per dozen. For Easter 2019 extending from March 31st through April 27th, 242.0 dozen equivalents were sold at a combined retail value of $424 million corresponding to a unit price of  $1.75 per dozen, a reduction of 17 percent.

Nielsen data suggests that including eggs in a shopping basket contributes to a tab of $33 per trip if generic eggs are included. This is compared to $49 per basket if cage-free, organic or other specialty eggs are purchased. This denotes that the demographic purchasing more expensive specialty, cage-free or organic eggs tend to purchase either more items per trip or tolerate higher unit prices due to perceived value of attributes. Eggs are obviously inelastic with regard to demand. Reducing the price of eggs may increase purchases slightly, but there is a limit to the quantity a consumer will purchase given perishability and a fairly constant use pattern.

Retail prices do not directly correlate with wholesale values. Prices paid to packers and integrators are a function of supply which in turn is influenced by flock size. Injudiciously high placement of pullet chicks reflects in lower wholesale prices 24 weeks later. The impact of the 2015 HPAI epornitic which occurred after the Easter period of that year resulted in a sharp increase in wholesale price following depletion of 40 million hens or 12 percent of the laying flock with replacement pullets although disproportionately affecting in-line breaking complexes. The effect of reduced flock size continued through 2016 in proportion to the level of rebuilding the hen population.

From the perspective of producers of shell eggs, supply is the important determinant of wholesale price. A comprehensive economic analysis is required to relate volume of production to wholesale and retail prices and the interaction of the shell and liquid segments of the industry. The impact of the 2015 HPAI epornitic, overproduction in 2019 and other factors influencing the egg industry represents a real-world exercise for agricultural economists. Determining the price elasticity for shell eggs and liquid and their interaction would be a valuable contribution to the industry with respect to forward planning and placement.

EGG-NEWS has advocated for such a study since 2015, and it is hoped that an industry initiative could fund a comprehensive study. This is especially important given the transition of the industry from caged housing to alternative systems including aviaries and floor-barns. Given the immense capital required to erect a complex of one to two million hens comprising pullet and layer housing, a feed mill and packing plant with appropriate biosecurity and other infrastructure demonstrates the need for quantifiable data to guide the industry going forward to 2025.