The following production data was summarized from the December 19^th 2025¹ edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs-:

• November 2025 pullet hatch attained 26.0 million, up 11 percent from November 2024.
• January to November 2025 cumulative pullet hatch was 317.7 million, up 7.9 percent from the corresponding months of 2025
• December 1^st 2025 egg-type hatching eggs in incubators, 52.7 million, up 10 percent from December 1^st 2024
• November 2025 pullets placed, 25.5 million, down 9.4 percent from November 2024.
• November 2025 pullets undergoing rearing, 143.3 million, up 11.0 percent from November 2024.
• November 1^st 2025 hen population (in flocks over 30,000)², 290.1 million, down 2.1 percent from November 1^st 2024.
• November 2025 table eggs produced, 7,438 billion (619.8 million dozen), down 3.3 percent from November 2024.
• December 1^st 2025 hens in molt, 2.2% of flock, up 15.8 percent from December 1^st 2024.
• December 1^st 2025 hens completed molt, 10.9% of flock, up 1.9 percent from December 1^st 2024.
• November 2025 disposal by slaughter, 11.0 million, down 17.8 percent from November 2024
• November 2025 disposal by rendering, composting or death, 9.2 million, down 29.0 percent from November 2024.

The take-away from data provided the inordinately delayed release is the steady replacement of the national flock that was reduced by depopulation of 39 million hens during the first five months of 2025. It is probable that the quantum of replacements will be inconsistent with demand, creating inevitable oversupply and depressed prices as recorded over 2016 and during early 2023. If mortality due to HPAI continues over the 5 million hens lost in September and October, coincident with the fall migration of waterfowl or if extension of infection from dairy herds occurs, the size of the national flock will be adversely impacted with implications for retail price.

1. Previous release September 22^nd before the federal shutdown
2. The 30,000 cut-off has introduced a negative bias given the proliferation of 10,000 to 25,000 contract cage-free flocks

Dr. Richard Gast of the USDA-ARS National Poultry Research Center recently presented data on experiments to ascertain the transmissibility of Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) in pullets reared as cage-free.  Subjects, presumably specific pathogen-free and unvaccinated were infected with two strains of S. Enteritidis at a level of 7.8 x 10⁷ CFU.  Pullets were infected at either nine or fifteen weeks of age and sampled one to two weeks post inoculation and again at 21 weeks of age.

Rate of recovery of SE from organs in infected pullets at 21 weeks of age was higher in the group infected at 15 weeks compared to the nine-week treatment.  The experimental design incorporated non-infected contact birds to determine rate of transmission under cage-free rearing.  SE was recovered at a higher rate in contacts with pullets infected at 15 weeks compared to the nine-week treatment. 

A second trial evaluated the rates of horizontal transmission according to the proportion of pullets infected with a range of 8 to 33 percent of a batch of 144 birds.  It was determined that the rate of isolation of SE from organs of contact exposed birds at the age of transfer was proportional to the number of pullets infected.  The proportion of pullets infected also influenced recovery of SE from the environment.

Sampling disclosed that a composite sample of litter was the most sensitive to detect Salmonella Enteritidis two weeks after infection. with consistent recovery from wall dust in the experimental rooms housing the infected and contact pullets.  It is noteworthy that drag swabs from litter were the least sensitive among environmental samples.

The two experiments would have been more relevant to commercial production had the infective dose been lower, corresponding to the possible level of infection under practical conditions.  The second question relates to the protective effect of vaccination. Industry practice for over 20 years has included live attenuated mutant Salmonella Typhimurium vaccine administered orally at day-old or during the early brooding period followed by an inactivated SE oil emulsion vaccine at 12 to 14 weeks. Results relating to infection of organs, contamination of the flock environment and horizontal transmission may have been different from the data obtained in the USDA trial had the experimental design approximated commercial practice.

The results of this trial are essentially intuitive and confirm the ability of SE to spread among flocks with access to litter and to result in contamination of their environment.  Investigating the transmission of SE among floor reared pullet is commendable but additional studies should be conducted reflecting current practice by determining the response to a range of infective doses with and without vaccination in a factorial design.

Given that drag swabs showed lower sensitivity of detection of SE compared to other environmental samples, this method of determining the SE status of a flock as mandated by FDA is questioned.  Literature shows that swabs from fan blades, paralleling the high recovery rate from wall dust, would probably be more appropriate and certainly less trouble than for the FDA protocol.

According to a California Department of Public Health release on Friday December 12^th to date 63 confirmed cases of Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) have been diagnosed with 13 hospitalizations.  Traceback has identified Vega Farms of Dixon, CA as the source.  Cage-free brown eggs in 12 and 30 packs have been recalled.  Affected product bears the plant number 2136 and Julian date 328. This would not appear to be a one-day event. Implicated eggs have been sold in a number of stores and delivered to area restaurants. 

A spokesperson for Vega Farms confirmed the 1,500-dozen egg recall and stated, “The contamination might have come from their processing equipment.”  This is nonsense since supply flocks are responsible for introduction of infection that is both within and outside shells. Contaminated grading equipment could in theory disseminate infection but would be limited to the shell surface.

A further note of confusion was created by station KCRA, Channel 3 that quoted Jason Chapman General Manager at Taylor’s Market who stated that “The eggs didn’t smell right, and they didn’t cook right.” This suggests a quality or age problem. His statement “Working in the grocery business we recognize the signs of Salmonella” is misinformed nonsense.  There are no detectable organoleptic changes in eggs contaminated with SE.

It would be interesting to learn the results of drag swab and environmental testing on all flocks supplying P2136, the Vega Farms SE vaccination program and the level of biosecurity applied. It is understood that California Department of Food and Agriculture has conducted appropriate sampling at the farm and plant. There may be a learning opportunity here.

According to the Brazil Association of Animal Protein Exporters (ABPA), during November the nation exported 1,900 metric tons of eggs representing 2.88 million dozen attaining a total value of $5.3million, with a unit value $1.85 per dozen.  The quantity exported represented the output of a theoretical flock of 1.4 million hens at a constant 80 percent hen-day output.  A total of 54 percent of November export volume was destined for Japan, (757 metric tons, up 270 percent YOY) and to Mexico (285 metric tons, up 51 percent YOY).

For the period January through November, 2025, Brazil exported 38,600 metric tons or 58.5 million dozen at an average unit price of $1.57 per dozen.  Volume was up 135 percent over the corresponding 11-month period in 2024, and value was higher by 164 percent to $92.1 million.  The 11-month export total corresponded to the output of a theoretical flock of 2.6 million hens.

In 2024, Brazil produced 57 billion eggs or 4.8 billion dozen.  This would correspond to a producing flock of 200 million hens.

In 2026 Brazil anticipates exporting 45,000 metric tons of shell eggs. Projections are for a 6.9 percent increase in domestic per capita consumption from 287 to 307 eggs, probably attributable the high cost of alternative animal protein.  If valid the American Egg Board would be advised to determine how producers in Brazil managed to achieve a 6.9 percent increase in consumption over two consecutive years.

A second observation is that this report deals with exports from Brazil during November 2025.  The latest figures available from the USDA on December 15^th reflect August data. Other reports have been delayed due to the October federal shutdown and the subsequent difficulty in resuming regular releases of anticipated USDA statistics.