Egg Industry News


USDA Data On Cage-Free Production For January 2025

02/10/2025

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

 

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering January 2025, released on February 3rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.3 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from December 2024. Depopulation was carried out through the fourth quarter of 2024 and through 2025 as a result of HPAI. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 1.0 million hens or 1.0 percent from December 2024 to 101.0 million, despite documented extensive flock depopulation during the month.

 

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in January 2025 was down 0.4 percent compared to December 2024 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.5 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 0.5 percent in January 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.2 percent, down from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand. Since the proportion of pullets according to housing type is not indicated in the monthly USDA Chickens and Eggs report, it is not possible to validate the relative sizes of flocks producing under the certified organic label or other categories. There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

 

Flock Size Average

(million hens)

   January

      2025

Average

Q4-2024

Average

Q3- 2024

Average

Q2 –

2024

Average

Q1 –

2024

Average

Q4-

2023

Certified Organic

20.3

   20.5

20.0

 18.8

18.3

18.7

Cage-Free Hens

    101.0

   104.5

  103.9

  101.0

 105.7

 106.4

Total Non-Caged

    121.3

   125.0

  123.9

  119.8

 124.0

 125.1

 

Average Weekly Production (cases)

   December

       2024                   

       January

          2025

Certified Organic @ 83.8% hen/day

    331,589

   330,252      +0.4%

Cage-Free @ 82.6% hen/day

 1,605,843

1,613,998      +0.5%

Total Non-Caged @ 82.8% hen/day

 1,937,432

1,944,250     +0.4%   

            

 

 

Average Nest Run Contract Price Cage-Free Brown

$1.70/doz.   (Unchanged since July 2024)

January 2025 Range:

$1.35 to $2.35/doz. (unchanged since March 2023)

FOB Negotiated January price, grade-ready quality, loose nest-run. Price range $7.03 to $7.50 per dozen

Average January 2025 Value of $7.24/doz.

($5.91/doz. December 2024)     

 

Average January 2025 advertised promotional National Retail Price   C-F, Large Brown

$2.88/doz. January 2025 (5 regions)

(was $2.90/doz. in December 2024)

USDA Based on 5 Regions, 133 stores

 Excluding SW, AK and HI. (was 1,027 stores offering promotions)

High: $4.49/doz. (NW. 21 stores)

Low:  $2.50/doz. (SC, SE, MW. Only 94 stores in total)

 

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for January 2025 averaged $7.24 per dozen, up 21.5 percent from $5.91 per dozen in December 2024, reflecting an imbalance of demand relative to supply. The January 20245 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over five regions (excluding SW, AK. and HI.) was $2.88 per dozen, apparently down 2 cents per dozen from December 2024 based on 133 stores. This compares with 1,027 stores in December and reflects fewer promotions as the year commenced reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI that restricted supply.

 

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.24 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $7.84 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average five-region advertised retail price of $2.88 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 172.4 percent (-124.5 percent last month) for promotions offered by stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.


 

Preamble

01/30/2025

Although regular weekly editions of EGG-NEWS have been suspended, some events and situations of importance to the industry deserve comment. Currently HPAI is the most important issue facing egg and turkey production in the U.S.  

 

The following postings are both relevant and topical and are circulated in the interests of stimulating discussion and a review of APHIS policy on withholding vaccination for high-risk locations. 

 

Appropriate responses are welcomed

 


 

This special edition of EGG-NEWS provides perspective on HPAI as a panornitic affecting free-living birds and commercial poultry on six continents. It is intended that the editorial and comment postings will engender thought and discussion leading to practical and realistic approaches to suppress and prevent the infection currently attributed to H5N1 virus of clade 2.3.4.4b.


 

Deteriorating World HPAI Situation

01/29/2025

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) mainly due to H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, D1.1 genotype, is responsible for ongoing losses in many nations attesting to the panornitic status of the disease.

During January 2025 Japan reported 14 outbreaks to the World Organization of Animal Health of which one involved a quail farm but with the remainder all table egg flocks. A total of 3.8 million hens have been depopulated through January 27th representing 2.2 percent of the population of approximately 170 million.

 

South Korea has recorded 29 outbreaks of HPAI among commercial poultry including ducks and laying hens since October 2024. The incidence conforms to the migratory patterns of marine birds and waterfowl.

 

Canada confirmed 51 cases of HPAI in 2024 requiring depopulation of 14.5 million commercial turkeys, broilers or laying hens. Losses were recorded in British Columbia (8.7 million), Alberta (2.0 million), Quebec (1.4 million) and Ontario (1.1 million). Month to date losses comprise British Columbia with four cases and Ontario, two cases.

 

 


 

Egg Week

01/29/2025

Egg Price and Inventory Report, January 29th 2025.

 

Market Overview

  • The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 8.3 percent. Medium size was up a substantial 30.8 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on January 24th was $6.55 per dozen up $0.68 per dozen (+11.6 percent) from $5.88 last week. This value was approximately $4.05 above the 3-year average of 2.50 per dozen and $4.31 above the corresponding week in 2024 at $2.24 per dozen. Over the past week the NYC wholesale price in cartons was 7.7 percent higher and with the prospect of an increase during the coming week based on the trend of daily increases.
  • The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 5.0 percent to $3.18 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 8.4 percent to $3.22 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be reduced as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.
  • This past week shell egg inventory was down 2.0 percent, compared to a fall of 0.3 percent during the previous week. The fall in inventory with a large increase in wholesale price last week denotes sustained consumer demand relative to diminished supply. Fluctuation in inventory and price will occur through February based on the frequency and magnitude of orders by chains leading up to and beyond the unusual January surge in price intensified by ongoing 2025 losses due to HPAI. The national flock is down by a conservative estimate of 24 million hens at the present time, (with some depletions in progress)
  • Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Losses during 2024 attained approximately 40 million hens with the fall-winter wave in progress and with 2.6 million hens depopulated among four states in January 2025 to date.
  • This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with progressively increasing prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels this week reflected constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now far less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
  • Total industry inventory was down by 3.1 percent overall this past week to 1.43 million cases incorporating a 7.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 1.3 percent fall during the preceding week.
  • It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional weekly inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and through the pipeline as determined by orders is probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock. This is especially evident into or after a holiday weekend or major storm as evidenced by fluctuation inventory levels over the past two months.
  • The U.S. egg-production industry experienced the loss of 40 million hens during 2024 together with over 4 million replacement pullets. Ongoing reports of HPAI diagnoses in backyard and non-commercial flocks (‘non-WOAH reportable’) and isolation from free-living domestic non-migratory birds suggests a continuation of outbreaks until waterfowl settle into their winter habitat. Not even the most stringent biosecurity can absolutely prevent introduction of avian influenza virus on dust particles entrained in air entering complexes and houses with negative ventilation. This predicates the limited and strategic application of H5 vaccine in high-risk areas. Over 950 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in sixteen states since March 2024 with most having recovered. More than 700 herds were diagnosed in California and 65 in Colorado over the past five months with the high incidence rate a function of mandatory surveillance of bulk milk. Bovine influenza-H5N1 is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has presumably occurred in Michigan, Colorado, California and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including an acknowledgement of the likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
  • The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
  • On January 29th the stated total flock of 300.5 million, was down by 1.0 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets per week that entered production to satisfy current demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Missouri, Ohio and California, and considering USDA-APHIS reports of depopulation, it is estimated that the total egg-producing flock at the end of January 2025 is approximately 26 million hens lower (-8.0 percent) than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.

 

The Week in Review

 

Prices

 

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on January 27th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.3 percent from last week to $7.04 per dozen. Large size was up 9.3 percent to $7.02 per dozen. Mediums were up 30.8 percent to $5.73 per dozen delivered to DCs. Continued increases are expected in the present week and extending through February

 

The stock of Medium size was down 5.4 percent, (down 13.6 percent in the Southwest Region but up 12.8 percent in the Southeast). The inventory of Small size was down 5.5 percent over the past week (South Central up 130 percent but Southwest down 45.8 percent). This indicates differences in timing of chick placements and regional demand. Surviving pullets placed in early September 2024 for mid-January 2025 production are now moving from Medium to Large. There is increased institutional demand for Medium size and some consumers are opting for smaller eggs based on price sensitivity.

 

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.4 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for December 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 60 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response).

 

Currently producers of generic shell eggs are operating with very strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

 

The January 27th edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 61.0 percent to $6.67 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $6.48 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $6.66 per dozen.

 

 

Flock Size 

It is questioned whether hens among complexes and farms depopulated during January to date, have been accounted for. Depletion of large complexes in Missouri and Ohio have occurred this past week. Accurate and updated data should be posted during the current winter outbreaks, given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Current values for the populations of the producing and total flocks are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

 

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting January 29th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 0.9 million to 295.1 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI is higher than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. This is consistent with sequential weekly losses. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion but depopulation due to HPAI continues to reduce the number of producing hens. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing and started pullets.

 

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on January 29th 2025 was 1.0 million lower to 300.5 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 5.4 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicated that molted hens are resuming production. Given the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 26 million fewer hens in the total flock that now includes incident cases of HPAI in the fall and winter wave that have emerged from October through to the present. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 8.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

 

INVENTORY LEVELS

 

  • Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on January 27th 2024 was 2.315 million lbs. (1,052 metric tons), and 0.1 percent down from 2.317 million lbs. on January 1st 2025 and unchanged from last week. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of December 2024.
  • The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on January 24th 2024 documented a total stock of 18.5 million pounds (8,403 metric tons) of frozen egg products on December 31st This quantity was down 38.0 percent from the December 31st 2023 value of 29.8 million pounds. The December 31st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 6.9 percent from the previous month ending November 30th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, decreased supply or their combination.
  • Compared to December 31st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 43.8 percent to 1.56 million lbs. on December 31st
  • Compared to December 31st 2023 yolk inventory was down 60.5 percent to 378,000 lbs. on December 31st
  • A total of 89.5 percent (16.55 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.9 percent) and “Unclassified” (44.6 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

 

Shell Inventory

 

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective January 28th 2024 was down 3.1 percent from the previous week, to 1,431,000 million cases. The total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms combined with breaking stock is at a rounded level of 1.43 million cases, (1.48 million last week; Down 45,600 cases).

 

Four USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

  • The Midwest Region was down 2.7 percent from the previous week to 410,400 cases
  • The Southeast Region was up 1.8 percent to 266,400 cases
  • The South Central Region was down 9.8 percent to 165,400 cases
  • The Northeast Region was up 3.4 percent to 163,700 cases
  • The Southwest Region was down 1.6 percent to 100,400 cases.
  • The Northwest Region was down 5.2 percent to 39,200 cases

 

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,431,000 cases (1,476,600 cases last week), down 3.1 percent, of which 80.1 percent were shell eggs (79.2 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 7.3 percent to 285,400 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 2.0 percent attaining 1,145,600 cases. Differences in inventory among regions are a function of weekly shell-egg demand and inter-regional movement.

 

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was up 5.0 percent last week and checks were up 8.4 percent in price. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 45.5 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (46.2 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 8.3 percent) compared to a rise of 5.7 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 45.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The substantial increase in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022 to 2024) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

 

On January 27th 2025 inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 442,800 cases (down 0.8 percent from last week at 446,400 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

  • Specialty category, down a substantial 25.1 percent to 29,100 cases on promotion. (was down 19.6% to 38,800 cases)
  • Certified Organic, down 5.1 percent to 65,400 cases. (was down 3.5% to 68,900 cases)
  • Cage-Free category, up 2.7 percent to 348,300 cases. (was down 5.0% to 339,200 cases)

 

Sales of specialty eggs generally increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher, as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

 

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

 

The industry requires a study on all aspects that influence pricing including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in fall through to the present.

 

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

 

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on January 24th 2025 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

 

Advertised Retail Prices representing features as reported January 24th for the previous week of January 17th do not reflect actual prevailing national or regional values especially compared with small numbers of stores featuring eggs:-

Large, in cartons generic white: None No comparison ($2.24)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.50 Down 5.3% ($2.64)

 

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $6.49 Up 7.1% ($6.06)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $8.97 Unchanged ($8.97)

National loose, (FOB dock): $6.55 Up 11.4% ($5.88)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $7.24 Up 7.7% ($6.72)

 

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported on January 24thfor the previous week.

Midwest $6.48 Up 62.0% ($4.00)

Northeast $6.56 Up 62.3% ($4.04)

Southeast $6.62 Up 60.3% ($4.13)

South Central $4.66 Up 60.1% ($4.16)

Combined $6.57 Up 61.0% ($4.08)

 

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

 

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on January 2nd 2025, the number of certified organic hens in December was unchanged from November 2024 at 20.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined, offset by December flock depopulation due to HPAI.

 

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in December 2024 was down 5.6 million hens (5.3 percent) from November 2024 to 100.0 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

 

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in December 2024 comprised: -

 

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.3 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 100.0 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 120.3 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

 

This total flock size represents 36.9 percent of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 39.9 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 301.5 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

 

Processed Eggs

 

For the processing week ending January 25th 2025 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on January 29th 2024 was down 0.4 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,317,144 cases, (1,321,941 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.1 percent (52.7 percent processed in-line for the previous week) confirming a slightly higher proportion of in-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.9 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.8 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks were higher this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 7.3 percent this past week to 285,400 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2024 in-line breakers processed 51.1 percent of eggs broken. With depletion of a large complex in Iowa dedicated to a major liquid processor it is anticipated that higher prices for breaking stock will prevail over the next few weeks and could escalate as in 2022 but with limited prospect of importation.

 

For the most recent monthly report reflecting December 2024, yield from 5,386,714 cases (7,66,144 cases in November) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period December 1st through December 28th 2024. Edible yield was 39.6 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 63.2; white, 22.1; yolk, 11.2; dried, 3.4.

 

All eggs broken during 2024 attained 72.88 million cases, 4.8 percent less than in 2023. Eggs broken in 2025 to date amounted to 5.21 million cases, 8.6 percent less than the corresponding period in 2024. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty with high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

 

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

 

Breaking Stock

 

The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 5.0 percent this past week to $3.18 per dozen with a most frequent range of $3.00 to $3.35 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on January 27th. The price of checks was up 8.4 percent to an average of $3.22 per dozen over the most frequent range of $3.21 to $3.23 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value and is expected to increase as a result of flock depletions.

 

Shell Eggs

 

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated January 27th confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 8.3 percent from last week and Medium size was up 30.8 percent from the previous week. A 2.0 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a higher benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand and presumably with proportional orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

 

Size/Type

Current Week

Previous Week

Extra Large

702-705 cents per dozen

648-651 up 8.3%

Large

700-703 cents per dozen

646-649 up 8.3%

Medium

571-574 cents per dozen

436-439 up 30.8%

Processing:-

   

Breaking stock

300-335 cents per dozen

300-305 up 5.0%

Checks

321-323 cents per dozen

296-298 up 8.4%

 

The 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price on January 27th, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 8.6 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

  1. $7.06 ($6.50), (estimated by proportion): L. $7.04 ($6.48): M. $5.73 ($4.38)

 

The 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, on January 27th (with the previous week in parentheses) was unchanged from last week. The high price is attributed to depletion of flocks due to HPAI. In January 2024 the USDA documented a hen population of 9.1 million declining to 7.8 million in July and 4.4 million at the end of December 2024. The market is supplied with higher priced cage-free Midwest and Southwest states.

  1. $8.99 ($8.99); L. $8.97 ($8.97); M. $7.60 ($7.60)

 

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

 

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on January 29th 2025 was up 1.7 points from the last weekly report to +5.5 with a 3.1 percent decrease in total inventory and a 2.0 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

Productive flock

295,114,853 million hens (down 0.3%)

Average hen week production

81.6%(was 81.7%)

Average egg production

240,825,448 per day (down 0.4%)

Proportion to shell egg market

71.9% (was 71.8%)

Total for in-shell consumption

480,796 cases per day (down 0.4%)

USDA Table-egg inventory

1,145,600 cases (down 2.0%)

26-week rolling average inventory

4.05 days

Actual inventory on hand

3.84 days

Shell Egg Demand Indicator

+5.5 points(+3.8 point on January 23rd 2025)

 

 

 

COMMENTS

 

USDA reported the depopulation of 3.9 million laying hens as a result of HPAI this past week. Cases of HPAI were confirmed among backyard and non-WOAH flocks in five states (CT, MA, VT, IL and OR) confirming dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. Cases emerged among broiler breeders and growing birds respectively in AR, GA, MO and VA, amounting to 0.2 million this past week. Losses among breeder and growing turkeys in MN, OH, MO and IN amounted to 0.5 million this past week. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure influenced by weather patterns and temperature in all four flyways. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Ontario and Quebec.

 

Approximate losses reported in 2024 include:-

  • 40 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
  • 4 million commercial meat turkeys with breeders
  • 0 million broilers with breeders
  • 400,000+ commercial and breeder ducks
  • 400,000+ backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

 

Backyard flocks allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.


 

VAL-CO Special Edition

01/28/2025

 

This special edition of EGG-NEWS incorporating industry data is sponsored by VAL-CO as service to egg producers.

 

Valco Industries was established in 2002, but their DNA goes back to 1935 with the establishment of the original company in Bird-In-Hand, Pennsylvania by the family of Fritz Steudler.  The company is headquartered in New Holland, PA. and employs over 300 in design, manufacturing and sales and operates subsidiary offices in Coldwater, OH, The Netherlands, India, and China. This year VAL-CO was recognized for 70 years as an exhibitor at the IPPE and its predecessors.

 

Valco Industries operates under the corporate commitment of “helping agriculture feed a hungry world” through providing equipment delivering consistent performance and supported by service to maximize returns by producers on their investment and labor.

 

Although VAL-CO manufactures a full line of poultry and hog equipment, products and ventilation products are featured in this edition.

 


 

This special edition focuses on the comprehensive range of ventilation components that collectively contribute to a seamless installation to optimize performance in both conventional cage housing and alternative systems. VAL-CO is experienced in the design and marketing of equipment to meet the specific requirements for multilevel aviaries and slat-and-litter barns.

 

VAL-CO installations can be supplied for new projects with the assistance of experienced design engineers.  VAL-CO components can upgrade existing housing undergoing conversion to alternative systems or to expand capacity.

 

Ventilation components reviewed were selected on the basis of innovation and development to suit the needs of the industry.

 

VARIABLE SPEED FANS

 

The VAL-CO V-Fan™ is available in 24”, 36", 50" or 54" diameter models all with  direct drive and  variable speed operation.

 

Variable speed fans offset their relatively higher initial cost by reducing utility bills achieved through high efficiency that may exceed conventional belt-drive fans by a threefold factor. A 54" V-Fan operating at reduced speed can provide an efficiency of up to 54 CFM/Watt.

 

    

 

HEMISPHERE MIXING FAN

 

VAL-CO developed a range of Hemisphere® fans in response to the need to distribute air evenly throughout an existing layer house or on each of the levels of a multi-story building. Centrally- placed Hemisphere mixing fans draw air up from floor level and down from the ceiling with dispersion outwards towards the walls creating a uniform temperature and environment for the flock.  Hemisphere fans are available in 48" or 72" diameter models. Installations can include an optional chimney for the attic, roof domes, variable speed controls, and bird proofing.

 

 

LIGHT TRAPS

 

VAL-CO Light Traps are available in a range to suit new installations and retrofits.  The Flush Mount Light Trap obviates the need to install or add a plenum (‘doghouse’).  Features of the Flush Light Mount Trap include the ability to open the installation for cleaning and maintenance without impinging on aisle space when closed  The large area of the inlet reduces static pressure and increases fan efficiency.  Flush Mount Light Traps are available for 36", 54", and 57” fans.

 

 

OASIS™ PAD COOLING SYSTEMS

 

The Oasis pad cooling system will improve bird comfort and production under high temperature conditions and can also be used to increase humidity especially during brooding in some areas and seasons.

 

 The VAL-CO Oasis incorporates design features to conserve water and to contribute to optimal conversion of water to vapor.  The installation includes a ribbed pad tray, elevated above the drain holes to prolong the life of pads.  The trough is designed for maintenance and cleaning.

 

 

VENTILATION CONTROLLERS

 

The Ventra XT can integrate the operation of modulating heaters, variable speed fans, alarms, ventilation, and lighting.  The controller is managed through a 7" intuitive touch screen and allows remote access through the XTConnect and VLink apps.  The Ventra XT controller has inputs for carbon monoxide, ammonia and carbon dioxide sensors and can also control humidity with an optional Heat Purge feature.  The Ventra XT includes 24 analog inputs and 12 analog outputs and provides data logging and tracking of ventilation components including inlet operation covering multiple years.

 

 

In addition to the featured products, VAL-CO inlets, chimneys, inlet doors, and curtains are available to complete a comprehensive ventilation installation.

 


Accuflow Air Inlet


Val-Co Chimney exhaust


 

Egg Projection January

01/23/2025

Updated January 2025 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

 

On January16th 2025 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2023 with an updated projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 16th 2024 report.

 

Projected egg production for 2024 was adjusted downward by 0.3 percent from the December 2024 Report to 7,728 million dozen This will be 1.7 percent less than in 2023 due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI through December with incident cases occurring during January 2025. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2024 will be 272.9 eggs down 6.4 eggs (-2.3 percent) from 2023. The projected average 2024 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 121 cents to 303 cents per dozen above 2023.

 

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs. The 2023 Midwest in-carton national wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8th 2023. Midwest Large wholesale price was restored during May 2024 and despite substantial declines during late August through September, attained $6.06 per dozen for Midwest Large, in cartons, delivered to DCs on January 17th 2024. The Midwest wholesale Large value should be compared to the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run December 2024 value of 74.4 cents per dozen for caged white Large, plus a provision for processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.34 cents per dozen (rounded).

 

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 0.5 million per week. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and among some producers by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On January1st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA1 to be 304 million hens, 22 million or 6.8 percent below the nominal producing flock of 326 million hens before the onset of the ongoing 2022 HPAI epornitic. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include consumer demand influenced by high shelf prices and the extent of anticipated losses during the late fall through early winter migratory season anticipated to end within weeks. Resumption of losses is anticipated in late spring months.

 

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 2.2 percent of total production over the first eleven months of 2024 did not materially affect the domestic price. Future export volume will be constrained by high domestic prices.

 

The USDA forecast for 2025 includes production of 7,820 million dozen, up an optimistic 1.2 percent from 2024. Projected consumption of 276 eggs per capita, would be a more realistic 3 eggs or 1.1 percent compared to the December projection of  a 2.9 percent (8 egg) increase over 2024, as documented in the December USDA report. This forecast probably presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets, both unrealistic assumptions. The increase, if it were to transpire would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $2.94 per dozen compared to the 2024 value.

 

 

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022.

 

According to USDA data over the first eleven months of 2024, 75.2 million dozen shell-eggs were exported valued at $176 million. Volume was 7.8 percent lower but value was 19.0 percent higher compared to the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was $2.34 per dozen, up 29.2 from the equivalent months in 2023.

 

Over the first eleven months of 2024, 23,947 metric tons of egg products were exported valued at $106 million. Volume and value were respectively 15.0 and 12.3 percent lower compared with the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was 31.9 percent higher to $4,619 per metric ton on average for all product forms.

 

Updated January 2024 USDA data2 is shown in the table below:-

 

 

Parameter

2021

(actual)

2022*

(actual)

2023

(actual)

 

2024*

(projection)

 

2025

(forecast)

% Difference

2024-2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Production (million dozen)

8,031

7,825

7,864

7,728

7,820

    +1.2

Consumption (eggs per capita)

282.5

280.5

279.3

272.9

275.9

    +1.1

New York price (c/doz.)

   119

282

   192

303.0

294.0

    -3.0

 

*Data influenced by HPAI losses. Recovery over entire 2025 considered unrealistic

 

Sources:  1. USDA Chickens and Eggs  released January 21st 2025

                2. Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16th 2025


 












































































































































































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