This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Lubing Systems LP for the information of producers and stakeholders

JULY HIGHLIGHTS

• July 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 278 cents per dozen, up 25 cents per dozen or 9.9 percent from the June 2025 value of 253 cents per dozen. The corresponding June 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $0.80 and $2.04 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146 cents per dozen and 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, net exports and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry. Imports declined sharply during the past quarter.
• July 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 305 cents per dozen, up 29 cents per dozen or 10.5 percent from the June 2025 value of 276 cents per dozen. The corresponding July 2023 and 2024 values were respectively 120 and 346 cents per dozen.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs as determined by the price discovery system. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price in 2024 and through Q1 of 2025 due to the high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to an additional 36 million birds, (hens and pullets) in 35 complexes or farms through mid-May 2025.
• July 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 72.8 cents per dozen, down 1.6 cents from June 2025 at 74.4 cents per dozen. The July average nest run production cost for other than caged and certified organic hens was estimated by the EIC to be 91.9 cents per dozen down 1.8 cent per dozen from June. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• July 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 205.2 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 178.6 cents per dozen in June 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 346.2 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen in 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• July 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 213.1 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 182.3 cents per dozen in June 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 426.6 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The June 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be up by 0.9 million hens (rounded, and a probable undercount) to 287.4 million compared to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt during the month together with projected maturation of 23 million pullets, with the total offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• June 2025 pullet chick hatch of 29.8 million was down 0.6 million (-2.0 percent) from May 2025 and inconsistent with an increased industry need to replace depopulated flocks.
• June 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 2.0 percent from May 2025 to 296,400 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.4 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 148,000 cases were dominated by Canada (78 percent of volume) and the “Rest of Americas” nations including the Caribbean (18 percent). With respect to 148,000 case equivalents of egg products, Canada (32 percent of volume), Japan, (20 percent), Mexico, (19 percent) and “Rest of Americas (8 percent), collectively represented 89 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competing suppliers, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.
• According to the USDA Egg Market Overview released on August 8^th, all egg imports (shell, liquid and dry) in June attained 11.5 million dozen shell equivalents compared to exports of all categories of 8.8 million dozen shell equivalents.
• For 2025 through June the negative trade balance in all shell and derived egg products attained 7.1 million dozen shell equivalents.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR JULY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA July 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on August 8^th 2025. Data is arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous July 9^th 2025 release reflecting June 2025 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA and EIC values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

*Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2025

Based on a nominal denominator of 270 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-month (USDA)  82.1% JULY 2025.  82.0*% JUNE 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook July 17^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF JULY 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) JUNE 2025, 6.62 MAY 2025, 6.48

EXPORTS JUNE 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.6 percent of National production in JUNE 2025 (0.8% shell, 0.8% products).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting JULY 2025:-

278.1 cents per dozen¹- 72.9 cents per dozen =205.2 cents per dozen (June 2025 comparison: 253.0 cents per dozen – 74.4 cents per dozen = 178.6 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA values based on advertised promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for JULY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown 305.0 cents per dozen¹- 91.9 cents per dozen = 213.1 cents per dozen

JUNE 2025:- 276.0 cents per dozen - 93.7 cents per dozen = 182.3 cents per dozen

1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 155 to 210 c/doz. Negligible change since July 2024 and totally unrealistic.
2. Negotiated price, loose. Range $1.85 to $2.83 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores and non-representative of shelf prices

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

On August 18^th 2025 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2024 with an updated projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous July 17^th 2024 report.

Projected egg production for 2025 was adjusted downward from 7,737 million dozen in 2024 by 5.5 percent to 7,315 million dozen due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI through Q1 2025 with incident cases occurring subsequently in April and May totaling 36.2 million hens. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2025 will be 258.2 eggs, down 12.4 egg equivalents (-4.6 percent) from 2024. The projected average 2025 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 109 cents over 2024 to 412 cents per dozen. Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs.

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 1.0 million per week. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and for some producers by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On January1^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA to be 304 million hens, 22 million or 6.8 percent below the nominal flock averaging 326 million hens during 2021 before the onset of the ongoing 2022 HPAI epornitic. Effective August 13^th the total national flock attained 290.5 million, approximately 35.5 million (-10.9 percent) below the pre-HPAI level. Unpredictable factors affecting flock size and hence price will include consumer demand influenced by recently lower shelf prices and the extent of anticipated losses during the late fall through early winter of this year.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 1.8 percent of total production over the first half of 2025 did not materially affect the domestic price. Future export volume will be constrained by high domestic prices, international competition and disease-related embargos.

The USDA forecast for 2026 includes production of 7,875 million dozen, up an optimistic 7.7 percent from 2025. Projected consumption will be 274.3 eggs per capita. This forecast presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets. These are both speculative assumptions in the absence of approved vaccination in high-risk areas. The increase, if it were to become reality would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $2.16 per dozen compared to the 2025 value of $4.12 per dozen for conventional Large white  product in cartons.

Updated August 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses.

Sources:  1. Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released August 18^th 2025

On August 8^th the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization released the Food Price Index for Commodities covering July 2025. The sequential monthly increase in specific food price categories continues in 2025. The FAO recorded a 2.1 point increase in the Index from June 2025 to the most recent value of 130.1 points.

 Components of the Index included:-

• The Meat index was up 1.5 points from June to 127.3 points with higher prices for all animal proteins representing an all-time high. Brazil regained WOAH status as HPAI-free and resumed exports in June.  Prices for beef and chicken were higher than in June due to increased demand. From China and the U.S. Beef supply in the U.S. is constrained by past droughts and intermittent closure of the border with Mexico following outbreaks of New-World Screwworm myiasis. Pork was lower in price on increased availability.
• The Cereal Index in July was down 0.8 points from June to 106.5 despite higher corn and barley prices that were offset by lower values for wheat, sorghum and rice
• The Vegetable Oil Index in July was up 11.1 points from June to 166.8 points, a three-year high. with higher prices for soy, sunflower and palm oils. This was due to increased world demand for human consumption and for biodiesel.
• The Dairy Index was down 0.2 points from June to 155.3

Given the fluid state of tariffs, U.S. exports of corn and soybeans will be constrained during the current market year notwithstanding USDA projections.  Traditional importers of U.S. agricultural commodities will be evaluating competitive prices from Argentine and Brazil offering greater availability and lower landed costs compared to the U.S. This will be to the advantage of domestic poultry and hog producers.

Operation of evaporative cooling during seasons with high ambient temperature effectively reduces heat stress on flocks and as a result enhances performance and product quality for egg-producing, broiler and turkey flocks.  The design of a system, the fabrication of pads and the quality and integration of components contribute to successful, long-term operation and a beneficial return on investment despite an initial higher capital investment.

The principle of evaporative cooling is based on the change in state of water from the liquid form to vapor with a resulting change in latent heat thereby reducing the temperature of incoming air  passing across the moist cooling pad.  The conversion of sensible heat to latent heat occurs at a constant enthalpy value resulting in a lower temperature of the air stream exiting the pad but with a higher humidity.  Changes in temperature and humidity are determined by physical principles and can be related by reference to a psychrometric chart relating the relevant constants. (See companion article)

Lubing systems has acquired considerable experience in the design and manufacture of complete evaporative cooling systems. Lubing offers a range of components to suit both retrofits and original installations, applicable to a wide range of house sizes and environmental extremes.

OptiCOOL plastic pads are at the heart of the Lubing system.  The pads are fabricated from polypropylene sheets with thermal welding, contributing to efficiency and a long service life.  Additives in the plastic provide resistance to ultraviolet radiation and chemicals and the arrangement of the plastic pads effectively blocks incident light.

The OptiCOOL pad is designed to distribute water evenly across all cells contributing to efficiency of cooling. The configuration and durability of OptiCOOL pads is superior to conventional fiber alternatives.

Components of the Lubing evaporative cooling system comprise: -

The water-supply unit incorporating a centrifugal pump equipped with an integrated filter, a float valve to maintain water level in the system and with an operational flushing capability.

An arrangement of pipes to distribute water evenly over the entire length of the pad.

A ball valve located in-line to replenish the quantity of water required during operation.	A deflector with a hinged cover to accurately direct water flow to the pads A water gutter to collect and recirculate water limiting wastage.

Design features of the Lubing system allow for ease of installation and maintenance.  Components are secured with clips and pads are positioned and held in guides. OptiCOOL plastic pads 2’ in width weigh 14 lbs. wet compared with fiber pads at more than 50 lbs., contributing to lower maintenance of the system.

The Lubing evaporative cooling installation is fabricated from PVC and stainless steel to eliminate corrosion.  The system does not require a water tank.  The automatic float valve automatically replenishes water to maintain operation of the system through measured and filtered recirculation.

OptiCOOL pads can be cleaned using a pressure ranging from 1,300 to 1,800 psi without damage, effectively removing accumulated dust and mineral scale. Fiber pads progressively loose cooling capacity due to an accumulation of adherent dust, mineral deposit and algae. Early versions of the OptiCOOl plastic pad are currently operating with high capacity for over ten years subject to regular inter-cycle washing. In comparison it is necessary to purchase, replace and dispose of fiber pads at regular intervals.

Under field conditions it was determined that a house in Georgia fitted with OptiCool pads allowing 1ft² pad area/350 cfm fan capacity operated at 0.1” swg. compared to a house with fiber pads that resulted in 0.2 swg. resistance. The more efficient OptiCOOL plastic pads contributed to a saving in power of $1,000 over a year during which cooling was used for 120 days with 13 fans activated.

The August 5th release of the Agricultural Economy Barometer Index for July, compiled by Purdue University and the CME Group. The Index that is heavily weighted by row-crop production showed a continued fall in July by a noteworthy 11 points to 135. The Index of Current Conditions was down 17 points from June to 127. The Future Expectations Index was down 7 points to 139 suggesting anxiety over profits from the 2025 crop. The Index is derived from the responses of 400 U.S. farmers and was conducted from July 7^th to 11^th.

Evident conclusions from the survey are that farmers were less optimistic than in June and also compared to May that represented a high point for the year at 147. There are evident concerns over the prices for U.S. agricultural commodities due to the fluid tariff situation and mutual disaffection involving the People’s Republic of China. Current sentiment is impacted by prospects for weaker income from corn and soybeans. There is now uncertainty over the direction and trajectory of inflation with the prospect of higher interest rates and hence production costs. The outstanding concerns are:-

• A decline in prices for corn and soybeans reflecting disparity between supply and demand as denoted by the August WASDE
• Declining prospects for exports with competition from South American producers and lower demand by China
• High prices for seed, fertilizer and other inputs
• Uncertainty arising from failure of Congress to pass a Farm Bill
• Decreased demand for biofuels

Many respondents indicated that they would carry higher debt burdens through 2025 and into 2026 mainly due to anticipated lower corn and soybean prices and increased costs for inputs including seed, fuel and fertilizer for the current season. More than half of the participants will reduce or cancel equipment purchases*. Results from the June survey confirmed that almost a third of respondents considered that farm exports will decline in 2025. The same proportion strongly favor free trade compared to half of the respondents in 2020. Farmers in the survey considered that the financial condition of their farms is deteriorating with the Farm Financial Performance Index down from 104 in June to 90 in July.

*This sentiment is supported by the Q3 FY 2025 results of John Deere (DE) released on August 14^th. The Company posted net income of $1,289 million ($1,734 million, Q3 FY 2024) on revenue of $12,018 million ($13,152 million) with a diluted EPS of $4.75 ($6.29). The Production and Precision Farming Segment posted a 16 percent decrease in sales and a 50 percent lower operating profit compared to the corresponding Q3 in FY 2024.

This special focus edition sponsored by Lubing Systems highlights their evaporative cooling installation featuring OptiCOOL plastic pads contributing to high efficiency and conservation of water. The system can be added as a retrofit to an existing rearing or laying house or for new houses or barns.

The accompanying general interest articles confirm a generally profitable situation in the industry despite declining prices as depopulated flocks are replaced. Seasonal demand for shell eggs and products continues at levels higher than in recent years, attributed in part to consumer’s perception of value in comparison to other available proteins.    

Lubing House Pads

The Relationship Between Temperature and Humidity

The relationship between temperature and humidity and related physical parameters with regard to evaporative cooling of poultry houses are corelated in a psychometric chart:-. 

The critical parameters of concern are: -

• Dry bulb temperature – This is measured using either a conventional or electronic thermometer. Dry bulb temperature is shown on the bottom horizontal axis of the chart and increases from left to right.
• Wet-bulb temperature is determined by immersing the bulb of a thermometer in a wick saturated with water using a sling psychrometer or alternatively an electronic hygrometer.  Wet bulb temperatures are depicted along the relative humidity curve representing saturation on the left side of the chart. The difference between dry bulb and wet bulb temperature is a function of the quantity of water in a given volume of air.
• Relative humidity – This is a measure of the quantity of water that air can hold at a given temperature.  Relative humidity is expressed as a percentage of the maximum level of water contained in a volume of air at a given temperature. On the chart relative humidity values are shown as a series of sequential curves extending from right to left with 100 percent humidity, or saturated air on the extreme left.
• Humidity ratio is the weight of water contained in a unit of air, expressed as a fraction of a pound of moisture per pound of dry air.  Humidity ratio values are indicated along the vertical axis on the extreme right of the psychrometric chart.
• Enthalpy is the heat energy contained in air expressed as Btu per pound of dry air. Values are shown along a diagonal scale on the left of the chart.

The principle of evaporative cooling can be illustrated using the definitions provided and with reference to the psychrometric chart, guided by the following simplified diagram:-

• Select 100 F dry bulb temperature on the horizontal scale at the bottom of the chart. Assume wet bulb temperature to be 65 F.  The curved line from 65 F downward to the intersection point with the 100 F dry bulb temperature indicates a relative humidity of 20 percent.  This state point indicates that the air in the house would contain 0.008 pounds of moisture per pound of dry air, a situation that would be encountered in incoming air in a layer house in Arizona or California.

• If moisture is introduced into the incoming air by an evaporative cooling system, the change in state from liquid to vapor will have a cooling effect but will increase relative humidity in the treated air to 50 percent.  This would reduce the dry bulb temperature of the incoming air into the house to 82 F. The reduction in temperature would require the addition of water by the evaporative cooling system with the humidity ratio  increasing from 0.008 to 0.012 pounds of moisture per pound of dry air.
• Theoretically to achieve saturation, dry bulb temperature could be reduced to slightly under 70 F.  Due to inherent restrictions, saturation is neither achievable nor recommended since the flock would be compromised by relative humidity values in excess of 50 percent.  This is due to the fact that feathered birds are insulated and rely on evaporative cooling from the respiratory and oropharyngeal mucosal surfaces to maintain core body temperature at or above 104 F. 

The psychrometric chart can be used to predict the effect of changes in dry and wet bulb temperature and corresponding changes in state points reflecting relative humidity and quantity of moisture to be added to incoming air for a variety of weather conditions.

• It may be necessary to add moisture to air to increase the relative humidity to at least 40 percent during brooding to protect the respiratory surfaces of chicks and poults.
• Adding heat to incoming air using a heat source or heat exchanger module will decrease the relative humidity of incoming air and facilitate removal of moisture from litter.  Litter serves as a moisture-sink accumulating urinary and fecal excretion and water spillage from drinkers. High moisture content of litter compromises flock welfare and health and affects three body systems:-

                 The respiratory tract is adversely affected by the release of ammonia,

                 The intestinal tract is impacted by ulcerative and necrotic enteritis and parasitism

                       including coccidiosis and other protozoal pathogens,

                       The integument is predisposed to footpad lesions and gangrenous dermatitis. 

The efficiency of evaporative cooling systems is dependent on adequate volumes of water passing over the pads and their ability to convert water to vapor.  The unique design of optiCOOL plastic pads contributes to cooling the incoming air without introducing water into the airstream, contributing to saturated litter in the floor area adjacent to inefficient pads.

In an August 7^th release, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL), a Certified B Corporation posted financial results for the 2^nd quarter of FY2025. This specialty egg producer competes directly with Eggland’s Best and other producers and distributors of USDA Certified Organic and pasture-raised products including Pete and Gerry’s, Hidden Valley and the combination of the Happy Egg with Egg Innovations. The Company experiences the same pressures of increased cost of feed, contractor remuneration, labor and transport as competitors in a specialty market environment restrained by a limited clientele for higher priced eggs.

For the 2^nd Quarter of FY 2025 ending June 29^th 2021, net income was $16.6 million on revenue of $184.7 million with a diluted EPS of $0.36.  Comparable figures for the 2^nd quarter of fiscal 2024 ending June 24^th were net income of $16.3 million on revenue of $147.3 million with a diluted EPS of $0.36.

Sales increased 25.4 percent over the 2^nd quarter of 2024. Gross margin was 38.8 percent for the most recent quarter (39.1 percent Q2 2024) Operating margin was 12.9 percent compared to 11.6 percent in Q2 2024.   

In commenting on results, Russell Diez-Canseco, Vital Farms’ President and CEO stated “We delivered second quarter results that exceeded our initial expectations, demonstrating the overall strength of our business model and expanding year-over-year consumer awareness of our strong brand"

He added "Our crew continues to successfully execute our supply chain expansion strategy, hitting several critical milestones since our last earnings call. These include an increase of 50 farms in the quarter to more 500 family farms with 9 million hens under contract, redesigning and breaking ground on our Seymour facility to bring additional production capacity online in 2027, continuing the installation of a third production line in Springeld for scheduled completion in the fourth quarter this year. These critical initiatives, combined with the successful implementation of our strategic pricing actions and our continued strong brand loyalty, have enabled us to raise our full-year revenue guidance.

Diez-Canseco concluded “As we continue to build America's most trusted food company, our commitment to ethical food production and sustainable growth remains unwavering, and we believe we're well-positioned to achieve our $1 billion revenue target by 2027."

The Company increased guidance for FY 2025 with revenue of $770 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $110 million and capital expenditure of $90 to $110 million.

On June 29^th 2025, VITL posted assets of $430.7 million of which $13.2 million comprised intangibles against long-term debt and lease obligations of $10.1 million. The Company had an intraday market capitalization of $2,022 million on August 7^tth. VITL trades with a forward P/E of 208 and has ranged over a 52-week period from $29.91 to $46.21 with a 50-day moving average of $36.22.  Twelve-month trailing operating margin was 12.9 percent and profit margin 7.8 percent.  Return on assets over the past twelve months was 11.2 percent with 18.8 percent on equity. At close of trading on August 6^th pre-release, VITL was priced at $37.95. At market open, post-release on August 8^th VITL traded at $43.86, subsequently closing at weeks end at $45.45.

Approximately 33 percent of VITL equity is held by insiders with 90 percent held by institutions. As of July 15^th 27 percent of the float was short.

The volume of exports of shell eggs and products is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. Imports are determined by domestic needs with reduced supply due to flock depopulation as the principal driving factor during the 1^st Quarter of 2025.

USAPEEC data reflecting volume of exports for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2025:-

U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING JANUARY-JUNE 2024 COMPARED WITH 2024

For the first six months of 2025 exports of shell eggs amounted to 36.3 million dozen according to the USDA Egg Markets Overview, August 8^th)*. All products, liquid and dried, attained 25.6 million dozen shell equivalents for a total of 62.0 million dozen shell equivalents. Imports over the six-month period comprised 47.9 million dozen shell eggs for breaking and 21.2 million dozen shell egg equivalents in all product forms for a total of 69.1 million dozen.

Net trade deficit was 6.1 million dozen shell equivalents

The trade situation will be influenced by tariff policy and the needs of importers during the second half of 2025. Since supply will hopefully improve in volume, imports will be curtailed with an expectation of higher exports consistent with more competitive prices.

*Difference between USDA and USAPEEC data

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering July 2025, was released on August 4^th 2025. The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be an even 20.0 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 170,000 hens (0.9 percent) from June 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 3.1 million hens or 2.8 percent from June 2025 to 113.8 million attributed to repopulation of depleted flocks.

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continuing in January and February 2025 (31 million), but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million), with April at 1.0 million and a single large complex in May (3.8 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in July 2025 was up 0.6 percent (rounded) compared to June 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.8 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 2.5 percent in July 2025, and with a high average hen-month production of 82.5 percent. Seasonally placed flocks in anticipation of periods of peak demand will increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs, reflecting pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rates recorded especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview and data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator, the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 288.0 million producing hens on July 1^st comprised:-

Caged, 154.2 million, down 0.7 million and comprising 53.5 percent of the total flock;

Cage Free (non-organic), 113.8 million (39.5% of total flock) with 85.8% of this population in barns, 7.3% on free-range and 6.8% on pasture;

Cage Free (organic), 20.0 million up 0.2 million (6.9%) with 60.6% of this population in barns and 23.5% on free-range and 16.5 on pasture: or other extensive systems

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 to date comprised:-

Caged flocks, 20.2 million representing 7.0 percent of a nominal 286 million hens

Cage-free flocks, 14.8 million representing 5.2 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

On August 4^th USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases (rounded) with the monthly change as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

Commodity shell eggs of all sizes. 1,401,100. (+18.3%)

Commodity breaking stock. 342,900. (+3.2%)

Specialty eggs. 39,000. (+37.8%)

Certified organic eggs. 82,800. (-12.1%)

Cage Free eggs 404,700. (+23.2%)

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for July 2025 averaged $2.27 per dozen, down $0.49 per dozen (17.8 percent) from $2.76 per dozen in June 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand and supply.

The July 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over 758 stores in four regions (NW, SW, MW and SC.) was $3.16 per dozen. This compares with 1,420 stores featuring cage-free Large White in June and reflects fewer promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with the lower incidence rate of HPAI during June, nothing in July despite an upsurge in May. The July 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large Brown cage-free eggs over only 303 stores in two regions (MW, and SC.) was $3.82 per dozen with a range of $3.55 per dozen in the MW to $3.98 per dozen in the SE region.

The recorded average wholesale price of $3.49 per dozen for brown and white cage-free combined plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $4.09 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average advertised promotional retail price of $3.82 per dozen for Brown and $3.16 per dozen for white represented negative margins of 22.7 percent for featured White and 6.6 percent for Brown respectively. Fewer promotions were offered for White compared to Brown cage-free by stores reflecting the balance between supply and demand for the two broad categories. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.