This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

MARCH HIGHLIGHTS

• March 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 474 cents per dozen, down 266 cents per dozen or 35.9 percent from the February 2025 value of 740 cents per dozen. The corresponding March 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $2.71 and $1.87 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with to 33 million birds, in 32 complexes or farms year to date.
• March 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 74.7 cents per dozen, down 1.4 cents from February 2025 at 76.1 cents per dozen. The March average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.7 cents per dozen down 1.6 cents per dozen from February. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• March 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 399.3 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 663.9 cents per dozen in February 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• March 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 444.3 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 820.7 cents per dozen in February 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The February 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.5 million hens (rounded and a probable undercount) to 289.5 million compared to the revised January 2025 value of 299.0 million and relative to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• February 2025 pullet chick hatch of 27.9 million was down 0.4 million (-1.4 percent) from January 2025 despite increased industry requirements to replace depopulated flocks.
• February 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 15.2 percent from January 2025 to 425,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.6 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 259,000 cases were dominated by Canada (84 percent of volume) and the “Rest of Americas” nations including the Caribbean (13 percent). With respect to 166,000 case equivalents of egg products, Canada (35 percent of volume), Japan, (27 percent), Rest of Americas (15 percent) and Mexico, (9 percent) collectively represented 86 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR MARCH 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA March 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on April 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous March 7^th 2025 release reflecting February 2025 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024

Based on a nominal denominator of 280 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 82.0% FEBRUARY 2025. 82.6% MARCH 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook March 17^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF MARCH 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) FEBRUARY 2025 5.99 JANUARY 2025, 6.18*

EXPORTS FEBRUARY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.1 percent of National production in FEBRUARY 2025 (1.3% shell, 0.7% products).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting MARCH 2025:-

474.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.7 cents per dozen = 399.3 cents per dozen (February 2025 comparison: 740.0 cents per dozen – 76.1 cents per dozen = 663.9 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for MARCH 2025:-

Cage-Free brown 537.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.7 cents per dozen = 443.3 cents per dozen

February 2025:- 916.0 cents per dozen - 95.3 cents per dozen = 820.7 cents per dozen

1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

(Insert Fig 12 Quarterly CF and organic)

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continued through 2025 to date but with lower intensity in March. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering March 2025, released on April 1^st 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.4 million (rounded to 0.1 million), down 0.1 million from February 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 1.7 million hens or 1.6 percent from February 2025 to 105.4 million, with negligible flock depopulation of laying hens but with loss of pullets during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in March 2025 was up 0.1 percent compared to February 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.3 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 2.1 percent in March 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 83.0 percent, up from 82.7 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously, especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 285 million hens on March 1^st was:-

Caged, 159 million (55.9% of 285 million hens);

Cage Free, 105 million (37.0%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 20 million (7.2%) with 91% in barns and 4.5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Losses during Q1 of 2025 comprised:

Caged flocks, 19.3 million representing 6.8 percent of hen population

Cage-free flocks, 11.0 million representing 3.9 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, 0.1 percent

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for March 2025 averaged $5.37 per dozen, down 30.8 percent from $7.77 per dozen in February 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The March 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only three regions (NW, SW and SC.) was $4.99 per dozen, apparently down 37.5 percent or $3.80 per dozen from February 2025 based on 153 stores. This compares with 62 stores in February and reflects few promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the incidence rate of HPAI during January and February.

The recorded average wholesale price of $5.37 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $5.97 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average three-region advertised promotional retail price of $4.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of -16.4 percent (-4.5 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS

• February 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 740 cents per dozen, up 156 cents per dozen or 27.1 percent from the January 2025 value of 582 cents per dozen. The corresponding February 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $2.11 and $1.33 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with to 31 million birds in 31 complexes or farms year to date.
• February 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was unchanged from January 2025 at 76.1 cents per dozen. The February average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be unchanged at 95.3 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• February 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 663.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 505.9 cents per dozen in January 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• February 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 820.7 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 713.7 cents per dozen in January 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The January 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 10.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 297.8 million compared to the revised December 2024 value of 308.2 million and relative to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• January 2025 pullet chick hatch of 28.1 million was up 1.5 million (+5.6 percent) from December 2024 reflecting increased industry demand for replacements of depopulated flocks.
• January 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 15.9 percent from December 2024 to 369,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.9 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 239,000 cases were dominated by Canada (84 percent of volume) and the Caribbean nations (15 percent). With respect to 130,000 case equivalents of egg products, Japan, (31 percent of volume), Canada, (25 percent) and Mexico, (18 percent) collectively represented 81 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

                      (insert US map showing regions)

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR FEBRUARY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA February 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on March 7^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous February 10^th 2025 release reflecting January 2025 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY                                                                                   

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 282 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

(insert Fig 10 leading states)

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)   81.7%* January 2025.    82.3% January 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook February 18^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF February 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)   December  2024, 6.08*     January   2025,  5.87       

EXPORTS JANUARY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.8 percent of National production in JANUARY 2025 (1.1% shell, 0.6% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting FEBRUARY 2025:-

                                                         740.0 cents per dozen¹- 76.1 cents per dozen = 663.9 cents per dozen         (January 2025 comparison:         582.0 cents per dozen – 76.1 cents per dozen  = 505.9 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price          

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

      (insert Fig 2 Farm egg value, Fig 3 Consumer retail, Fig 4 Estimated quarterly)

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for FEBRUARY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     916.0 cents per dozen¹- 95.3 cents per dozen =  820.7 cents per dozen

January 2025:-         809.0 cents per dozen -  95.3 cents per dozen =  713.7 cents per dozen  

1.       Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as required through the fourth quarter of 2024 and has continued through 2025 to date as a result of HPAI. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering February 2025, released on March 3^rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.5 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 0.1 million from January 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 2.7 million hens or 2.7 percent from January 2025 to 103.7 million, despite extensive flock depopulation during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in February 2025 was up 1.1 percent compared to January 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.0 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 3.3 percent in February 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.7 percent, up from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of flocks according to housing system among the total of 292 million hens on

February 1^st was:-

Caged, 169 million (57.2% of 292 million hens on February 1^st.);

Cage Free, 102 million (34.9%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 21 million (7.2%) with 5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for February 2025 averaged $7.74 per dozen, up 6.9 percent from $7.24 per dozen in January 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The February 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW & SC.) was $7.99 per dozen, apparently up $5.11 per dozen from January 2025 based on 62 stores. This compares with 133 stores in January and reflects fewer promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI.

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.77 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $8.37 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 4.8 percent (-172.4 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the February 11^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #657, projecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were predictably little changed from from the January 2025 edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted,  history of recent crops and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and exports.

The February 11^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from 82.9 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from 86.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 179.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was 50.3 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The February USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was down 11.4 percent from December 2024 to 1,540 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 19.2 percent to 380 million bushels.

The February 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2024-2025 market year at an average of 435 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. Projected commodity prices suggest lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins or in some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the February 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America. Hostilities are ongoing in Ukraine following extensive destruction of agricultural infrastructure by the Russian Federation. Production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be reduced compared to pre-war averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the current market year despite fiscal stimulus with a projected recovery of the Nation’s economy influencing consumer demand for food and fuel.

The USDA considers world weather patterns in developing projections including the effect of the transition to a La Nina event during the third quarter of 2024.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected a crop of 14,867 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,775 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was unchanged from 2024 at 1,390 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were reduced to 2,450 million bushels, based on recent orders, and shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and the output of producing nations in South America. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,540 million bushels.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the February WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 435 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th after the noon release of the WASDE the CME spot price for corn was 483 cents per bushel, up 6.1 percent from the quotation on December 10^th and up 11.0 percent from the February USDA projection.

December 2025 WASDE #657 Projections For The 2025 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 435 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,366 million bushels, based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre from 86.1 million acres harvested. Crush volume was held from the December WASDE report at 2,410 million bushels despite increased industry capacity and a projected 0.4 percent increase in the output of soybean meal. Projected exports were maintained at 1,825 million bushels despite the prospect of reduced imports by China. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 380 million bushels, down 19.1 prtcent from the December WASDE report.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current market year. This is attributed to competition from Brazil and an assumption of lower requirements for animal feed due to restrictions on pork production by the Central Government of China. The response of China with respect to announced import and punitive tariffs that are predicted to have a negative impact with respect to volume exported and hence lower domestic U.S. prices. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE February projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025  harvest was 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,044 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent compared to the December 10^th quotation and 3.3 percent above the February USDA projection.

February 2025 WASDE #657 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 56.95 million tons, up 0.4 percent from the 2024 crop but inconsistent with the unchanged 2,410 million bushel projected soybean crush volume. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 40,225 million tons. Exports were estimated at 17.40 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex plant price of soybean meal at $310 in the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an unchanged ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At market close on February 11^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $297 per ton, down 1.4 percent compared to the December 10^th CME quotation and 4.2 percent lower than the December WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 February 2025  WASDE #657 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.”

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields”.

“Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of stakeholders

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 424 cents per dozen, up 60 cents per dozen or 16.4 percent from the November 2024 value of 364 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2022 and 2023 values were respectively $4.37 and $1.56 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has emerged as a major driver with seasonal migration of waterfowl. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 4 million during January to date.
• December 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was almost unchanged from November at 74.4 cents per dozen. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.4 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 349.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 290.0 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 673 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 361 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023.

• The November 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 311.3 million compared to the revised October 2024 value of 311.7 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• November 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.4 million was down 11.3 percent or 3.1 million chicks from October 2024.
• November 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 19.6 percent from October 2024 to 325,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.3 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 95 percent of shell egg exports of 181,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico represented 72 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 144,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB price offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on January 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9^th 2024 release reflecting November 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024¹

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 81.8% November 2024. 82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook December 16^th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2024:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2024, 6.91* November 2024, 6.57

EXPORTS NOVEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in November 2024 (1.9 percent in October 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting DECEMBER 2024:-

424.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.4 cents per dozen =349.6 cents per dozen (November 2024 comparison: 364.0 cents per dozen – 74.0 cents per dozen = 290.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for DECEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 766.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.4 cents per dozen = 672.6 cents per dozen

November 2024 455.0 cents per dozen - 93.4 cents per dozen = 361.6 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and unrealistic.
2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on September 30^th 2024, documented storage of corn and soybeans, classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of the two major ingredients as Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Energy, Economy and determined by USD-NASS, relevant to the cost of poultry production were:-

“Old crop corn stocks on hand as of September 1^st 2024 totaled 1.76 billion bushels, up 29 percent from September 1^st 2023. Of the total corn stocks, 780 million bushels (44 percent were stored on farms), up 29 percent from last year”. This was down from 61 percent three months ago indicating a sell-off despite declining prices to realize income and make room for the 2024 harvest. “Off-farm stocks, at 980 million bushels, were up 30 percent from a year ago. The June-August 2024 indicated disappearance was 3.24 billion bushels, compared with 2.74 billion bushels during the same period a year earlier”.

“Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1^st 2024 totaled 342 million bushels, up 29 percent from September 1^st 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 111 million bushels,  (32 percent) up 54 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 231 million bushels, were up 20 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2024 totaled 628 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier”.

The weekly Economy, Commodity and Energy Report posted each week and a summary of the WASDE #652 released on September 12^th is retrievable under the STATISTICS tab.

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released October 31^st posted September prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

September Prices Received Index, down 2.9 percent from August

 The USDA ERS summarized prices as follows:-“The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 122.6, decreased 2.9 percent from August and 7.1 percent from September 2022. At 113.9, the Crop Production Index was down 4.2 percent from last month and 11 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 133.1, decreased 0.9 percent from August, and 2.6 percent from September last year. Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, and lettuce during September, but higher prices for broilers, milk, grapes, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In September, there was decreased marketing of cattle, wheat, cotton, and peaches and increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, dry beans, and apples”.

September Prices Paid Index, Up 0.1 Percent from August

“The September Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.8, is up 0.1 percent from August 2023 but unchanged from September 2022. Higher prices in September for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for feed grains, complete feeds, concentrates, and hay & forages”.

Corn farmers received $5.21 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $5.73 per bushel in August 2023, down 9.1 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $7.09 per bushel

Soybean farmers received $13.20 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $14.10 per bushel in August 2023, down 6.8 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $14.20 per bushel

The September 2023 egg price received by farmers was $ 1.22 per dozen for table eggs lower than $1.35 per dozen in August 2023 and compared to $2.65 per dozen in September 2022. The sharp year-on-year increase is attributed to disequilibrium between supply and demand. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in depletion of 44 million hens with a reduction of 20 million producing birds in the supply flock on average from mid 2022 onwards. This situation was coupled with increased demand as consumers increased purchases of eggs representing a competitively priced protein source in an inflationary environment.

The June 30^th 2023 Planted Acreage report documented the respective areas planted to corn and soybeans, the two commodities of relevance to the poultry industry. The USDA confirmed:-

Corn-planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 94.1 million acres, up six percent or 5.52 million acres from last year. This represents the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 86.3 million acres, is up nine percent from last year.

Soybean-planted area for 2023 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down five percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 21 of the 29 estimating States.

Together with the Grain Stocks report the Planted Acreage data moved the market for corn and soybeans by about five percent but in contrasting directions.

For corn the acreage was above the most optimistic projection although offset by a lower stock. At 14H30 on the CME after the release of the two USDA reports, corn was down 25 cents per bushel to 556 cents for July delivery and for September, corn was down 34 cents per bushel to 489 cents.

For soybeans the reduced acreage and consequently lower ending stocks was bullish for the new crop. At 14H30 CME soybeans were up 75 cents per bushel to 1,558 cents for July delivery and for September the soybean price was up 73 cents per bushel to 1,354 cents.

According to USDA economists, retail egg prices increased by 8.5 percent in January 2023, approximately 70.1 percent above January 2022.  The USDA-ERS now predicts that egg prices will increase by 37.8 percent in 2023 but with a wide range of 18.3 to 62.3 percent attributed to volatility.  Concurrently the USDA-ERS predicted a 4.7 percent increase in the price of meats, 7.2 percent for dairy products and 12.8 percent for cereals and bakery products.

Wholesale farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase by 7.4 percent in 2023 with a wide prediction interval of -32.6 to 76.1 percent.  Egg prices are extremely volatile, complicating reliable predictions.

EGG-NEWS will monitor weekly USDA wholesale prices by region and average retail prices to document retail margins.