USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing the first two months of 2019 with the corresponding period in 2018:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS DURING

JAN.-FEB. 2019 COMPARED WITH 2018

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during the first two months of 2019 decreased by 21.3 percent in volume and 32.5 percent in total value compared to Jan.-Feb. 2018. Unit value was lower by 14.8 percent or 18 cents per dozen for the two-month comparison between 2018 and 2019. The top two importing nations represented 69.3 percent of volume and 67.1 percent of total value.

Hong Kong was the leading importer of shell eggs in Jan-Feb 2019, with 5.8 million dozen representing 42.3 percent of volume and 38.5 percent of the total value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs with an average unit value of $0.95 cents per dozen.

Canada ranked second in imports during Jan.-Feb. 2019 with 3.7 million dozen representing 27.0 percent of volume and 28.7 percent of total value at $14.3 million with a unit value of $1.11 per dozen. Shell eggs shipped to Canada represent the difference between domestic demand and production, limited by their national controlled marketing system.

Mexico was a distant third in rank during Jan.-Feb. 2019 with 9.4 percent of volume and 7.0 percent of total value, with a unit value of $0.85 per dozen.

The Caribbean Region represented 10.2 percent of export volume for the first two months of 2019. This region was down 17.6 percent in volume and 48.6 percent in total value compared with 2018. The unit value of shell eggs exports to the Caribbean averaged $1.36 per dozen for Jan.-Feb. 2019 ($1.93 over entire 2018) which appears inordinately high compared with the average export realization, warranting validation of USDA data or an investigation of the price discrepancy.

The Middle East Region imported 1.0 million dozen during the first two months of 2019 valued at $0.9 million with a unit price of $1.11 per dozen. Volume and value were respectively lower by 60.0 percent and 60.9 percent compared with the corresponding period in 2018.

Israel emerged as an importer at the end of 2018 attributed to depletion of domestic flocks due to SE.

EGG PRODUCTS

The total volume of exported egg products during Jan.-Feb. 2019 decreased by 27.7 percent and total value was lower by 36.3 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Unit value decreased by 11.9 percent to $3,221 per ton from $3,655 obtained during Jan.-Feb. 2018. This fall reflected the relationship between World supply and demand.

During Jan.-Feb. 2019, 1st-ranked Japan represented 26.7 percent of the total U.S. export volume with 1,255 m. tons, a decrease of 39.2 percent compared with the first two months of 2018.

Mexico was the second ranked importer during Jan.-Feb. 2019 receiving 1,154 metric tons comprising 24.6 percent of volume and 19.2 percent of value exported with a unit price of $2,513 per metric ton

Canada was displaced to the 3rd rank among importers purchasing 781 m. tons representing 16.7 percent of volume and 11.9 percent of value ($1.8 million) exported with a unit price of $2,305 per m. ton. During the two-month period in 2019 Canada decreased volume and value by 12.4 percent and 10.0 percent respectively compared to the corresponding period in 2018.

During the first two months of 2019, 5th-ranked E.U-28 imported 138 m. tons of egg products, representing 2.9 percent of the volume and 3.9 percent of value shipped during Jan.-Feb. 2019

South Korea, ranked 6th, posted a 72.3 percent lower volume for Jan.-Feb.2019 compared with the previous year that was influenced by HPAI outbreaks. Value declined by 79.2 percent with a unit price of $3,677 per m. ton that is in excess of the average value of $3,221 denoting a special product mix.

COMMENTS

Successful conclusion of NAFTA negotiations led to the trilateral USMCA, announced on September 30th to be subsequently ratified by the legislatures of all three signatories. Exports of shell eggs and egg products to our neighbors were valued at $74.7 million for 2017 and $89.7 million for 2018 and $9.9 million over the first two months of 2019.

Prospects for long-term exports of shell eggs will be limited by the willingness of importers to accept the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) principle of regionalization in the event of exotic Newcastle disease or isolation of H5 or H7 avian influenza, irrespective of pathogenicity. Most importing nations, with the noted exception of China, are now applying regionalization and permitting imports on a county or state-exclusion basis following H5 or H7 AI infection.

The eleven-month ongoing series of incident cases of END in approximately 420 backyard flocks, predominantly fighting cocks. Extension of the infection to four commercial farms in Southern California should not impact exports since importers are complying with the OIE principle of regionalization.

Generally pasteurized egg products
 

• March 2019 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price Down 13.0 Percent from February 2019, Consistent with Seasonal Trends and Moderate Oversupply.

• March 2019 USDA Average Nest-run Production Cost 1.1 Percent Higher than February 2019 at 60.7 cents per dozen.

• March 2019 USDA Benchmark Nest-run Margin Decreased from February 2019 to Breakeven.

INTRODUCTION.

Summary tables for the latest USDA March 2019 prices made available by the EIC on April 9th 2019 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous March 12th 2019 posting reflecting February 2019 cost data.

COSTS & REVENUE

From January 2019 onwards EIC has used USDA-AMS data for regional corn, soybean and standard feed prices. The basis for corn will be cash payment except for California (10-day delivery) and Louisiana and Oregon (30-day delivery). For soybean meal a similar approach is applied with 20-days for Minnesota. It is noted that January 2019 prices are not directly comparable with December 2018. Month-to-month comparisons in 2019 will be valid.

OVERVIEW

The April 9th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting intentions to be 81.7 million acres (81.8 million in 2018). In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 88.1 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018). There was apparently no change due to recent Midwest flooding or the forecast for wet conditions from snowmelt prior to planting.

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 176.4 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was projected at 51.6 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018). These values presume suitable planting conditions, time of sowing and standard rates of germination.

The April USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 10.9 percent to 2,035 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 0.5 percent lower at 895 million bushels with minimal effect on CME price quotations subsequent to the noon release of the April WASDE.

It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation.

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is some doubt as to the accuracy of the individual monthly flock numbers especially with the latest report that shows a 12.7 percent increase in the cage-free flock in March with negligible change since September 2018. The question is raised whether it would not be more desirable to post accurate quarterly data in place of unconvincing monthly figures denoting similar hen data for consecutive months.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the EGG-NEWS Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage Free Report for the month of March 2019 released on April 1 st 2019 documented a 4.5 percent reduction in flock size for hens hens producing under the Certified Organic seal. In contrast the National cage-free flock increased by 5.3 million as compared to the values for October 2018 through January 2019 and an increase of 0.1 million in February. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters. Average flock production was reduced to 72.5 percent for both categories of non-caged hens (accepting USDA data) although there were evident differences in placement programs and hen age among months:-

Kindly refer to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January 2019 with January 2018:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN

JANUARY 2019 COMPARED WITH JANUARY2018

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

A more detailed review with an interpretation of trends will be provided when the next USDA report incorporating both January and February data is available

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on March 14^th, following the previous February 14 ^th report, the first since the Federal shutdown. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 2.6 and 1.1 percent respectively compared to revised 2018 data. Consistent with this disparity, the benchmark New York price was reduced by 11.6 percent in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The latest data is reflected in the table below.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -March14^th 2019

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.