Updated January 2023 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption.

On January 19^th the USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production for 2022 with a projection for 2023. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 15^th 2022 report.

Projected egg production for 2022 was almost unchanged from from the December Report to 7,733 million dozen This will be 2.9 percent lower than in 2021 due to depopulation of approximately 44 million hens infected with HPAI from early spring extending through mid-December. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 was reduced fractionally despite higher prices in the January Report to 277.5 eggs but down 3.0 eggs (1.1 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 1.4 percent from the December report to 287 cents per dozen. This was 137 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 4^th Quarter of 2022.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy that is impacted by inflation with a 6.5 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index in December compared to the corresponding month in 2021. This was mainly due to reduced costs for fuel and energy but with eggs a standout among the food group. Industrial egg-liquid consumption will be influenced by reduced availability and higher cost that will once more drive demand for alternatives to ‘real eggs’ as in 2015. Flock size may be limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement, rate of conversion to alternative housing systems and the cost of ingredients that will influence margins. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses in the ongoing avian influenza epornitic that may undergo a resurgence during the fourth quarter of 2023; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine; limited export volume of eggs and the duration of current high domestic consumer demand.

USDA projected egg production in 2023 was down 0.6 percent from the December Report to 8,115 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 288.6 eggs down 0.4 percent from the December projection. 

January 2023 data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 19^th 2023

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices, exports and related industry statistics.

USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, January 18^th 2023.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were lower this week by 16.2 percent on average, continuing the downward move for the third consecutive week. Mediums were down 19.0 percent indicating an imbalance between supply and demand in this size with pullets commencing production. This past week shell egg inventory was up 0.8 percent despite lower prices. Both retail price and demand will continue to erode as in previous years and as flock numbers are restored prices will moderate. For early 2023 retail purchases will be supported by consumer perceptions of value in an inflationary environment with concern over the high cost for other protein foods. Availability and hence prices are influenced by depletion of close to 43 million hens in 22 large complexes in eleven states extending from the last week in February through mid-December with the producing flock down 20 million hens compared with pre-HPAI.
• Total industry inventory decreased by 0.3 percent overall this past week to 1.58 million cases with a concurrent 4.6 percent decrease in breaking stock attributed to higher food service and industrial demand. Wholesale unit prices during 2022 into 2023 contrasted favorably with 2020 and 2021 characterized by low ex-plant unit revenue.
• It is now apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important over the short term to establishing wholesale price than the USDA regional inventory figures published weekly.
• Due to the depletion of flocks as a result of HPAI, unseasonal high unit revenue will now be a reality into the first quarter of 2023. Sporadic outbreaks of HPAI are likely given the Southward migration of waterfowl. The number and extent of outbreaks cannot be assessed until more information is available concerning the molecular and field epidemiology relating to cases. The USDA has yet to identify modes of transmission including airborne spread and possible deficiencies in biosecurity on affected complexes that presumably demonstrated specific risk factors. APHIS has been negligent in evaluating available data and providing timely practical guidance on prevention.
• The current relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price amplifies both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three months. The benchmark functions to the detriment of the industry over the long term. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• According to the USDA the U.S. flock in production was down by a net 0.6 million or 0.2 percent to 302.5 million hens during the week ending January 18^th. The flock in production includes about 3.0 million molted hens that resumed lay during the past week plus 4.0 million pullets attaining production.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock was down 8.6 percent this past week to 242 cents per dozen. Checks delivered to Midwest plants were down 9.4 percent to 231 cents per dozen. Prices for breaking stock will remain high over the period of recovery from HPAI as replacement flocks mature but the price levels will be more extreme than during the 2015-2016 epornitic.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports released on January 17^th the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was down 16.2 percent to $3.88 per dozen. Large size was down 16.3 percent to $3.86 per dozen; the Medium price was down 19.0 percent to $2.77 per dozen as delivered to DCs. Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 6-Region blended nest-run cost of 80.1 cents per dozen in December, excluding provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 50 cents per dozen according to the EIC. The progression of prices during 2022 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

 The January 17^th 2022 edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report documented a USDA Combined Region value rounded to the nearest cent, of

$4.70 per dozen delivered to warehouses for the week ending January 10^th 2023. This average price lags current Midwest weekly values by one week. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $4.61 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $4.80 per dozen. The USDA Combined Price last week was approximately $3.70 above the 3-year average. This past week Midwest Large was approximately $3.40 above the corresponding week in 2022. Prices in 2022 were considerably higher over the comparable 2021 period extending from Thanksgiving through post-Christmas compared to 2021.

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released December 30^th 2022 posted November prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

The USDA ERS summarised prices as follows:-

“The November Prices Received Index (2011 as a base) for Agricultural Production was 133.4, an increase of 4.5 percent from October 2022 and 23 percent from November 2021. At 127.1, the Crop Production Index was up 4.3 percent from last month and 19 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 143.4, increased 3.2 percent from October and 30 percent from November last year. Producers received higher prices during November for lettuce, soybeans, market eggs and cattle but lower prices for hogs, hay, milk, and cotton. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In November, there was increased monthly movement for corn, milk, cattle, and cotton and decreased marketing of soybeans, grapes, lettuce, and wheat.”

“The November Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 137.1, was unchanged from October 2022 but up 11 percent from November 2021. Higher prices for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, concentrates, and nitrogen offset lower prices for other services, hay and forages, complete feeds, and other machinery”.

Corn farmers received $6.49 per bushel in November 2022 compared to $5.26 per bushel in November 2021, up 23.4 percent.

Soybean farmers received $14.00 per bushel in November 2022 compared to $12.10 per bushel in November 2021, up 15.7 percent.

Egg farmers received $3.34 per dozen for table eggs in November 2022 compared to $1.09 per dozen in November 2022, up 206.4 percent. The sharp year-on-year increase is attributed to disequilibrium between supply and demand. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in depletion of 44 million hens with a reduction of 20 million producing birds in the supply flock on average from mid 2022 onwards. This situation was coupled with increased demand as consumers increased purchases of eggs representing a competitively priced protein source in an inflationary environment.

OVERVIEW

The USDA adjusted values for production of corn and soybeans for the January WASDE to reflect lower corn and soybean production and exports with consequential changes in market price.

With respect to the World situation it is evident that the 2022 harvest of all crops in Ukraine, a major World supplier, will be reduced by at least one third compared with pre-invasion values. The situation in Ukraine has no short-term prospect for resolution despite initiation of ocean shipments from the Black Sea ports, although this is subject to the whims of the President of the Russian Federation.

The January 2023 WASDE amended corn and soybean harvest data from December for the 2022 season, with corn harvested from 79.2 million acres down from 80.8 million acres and soybeans from 86.3 million acres down from 87.5 million acres.

The January 2022 WASDE value for corn yield based on actual harvest data was raised 0.6 percent to 173.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 175.8 bushels per acre in 2021. The estimate of soybean yield was lowered 1.4 percent to 49.5 bushels per acre from 50.2 bushels per acre from the previous WASDE. Yield was 51.2 bushels per acre in 2021.

The January 2023 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was lowered 1.2 percent from 1,257 million bushels to 1,242 million bushels with updated domestic use categories and exports. The USDA reduced the projected ending stock for soybeans to 210 million bushels. The ending stocks for corn and soybeans at the end of the 2022/2023 market year only will be changed by fluctuation in export volume.

The January 2022 WASDE projection retained the price of corn at $6.70 per bushel. The projected price for soybeans was raised 20 cents per bushel to 1,420 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was raised $15 per ton to $425 per ton. All three of the price projections deviate from the January 12^th CME quotations for March delivery of corn and soybean meal respectively.

Projections included in the January 2023 WASDE reports reflect the most recent estimates of commodity production in the Southern Hemisphere. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation with occupation of 20 percent of the Nation’s land area and following extensive destruction of infrastructure. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower by Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages.            

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on January 12^th 2023, documented storage of the major commodities, classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of corn and soybeans, the two major commodities relevant to the cost of poultry production were stated to be:-

CORN

“Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2022 totaled 10.8 billion bushels, down 7 percent from December 1, 2021. Of the total stocks, 6.75 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 7 percent from a year earlier.          

Off-farm stocks, at 4.06 billion bushels, are down 8 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2022 indicated disappearance is 4.30 billion bushels, compared with 4.67 billion bushels during the same period last year”.

SOYBEANS

“Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2022 totaled 3.02 billion bushels, down 4 percent from December 1, 2021. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.48 billion bushels, down 3 percent from a year ago.  

Off-farm stocks, at 1.55 billion bushels, are down 4 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2022 totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier”.

Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Commodity Report and WASDE #632 released on January 12^th  are posted in this edition and thereafter retrievable under the STATISTICS tab.

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2022 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2022 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run benchmark price was 439.1 cents per dozen, 29.1 percent higher than the November 2022 value of 340.1 cents per dozen. For comparison average USDA benchmark price for 2021 was 84.3 cents per dozen with a range of 58.0 cents per dozen in June to a high of 123.6 in December. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletion due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Prevailing wholesale prices will be largely dependent on future consumer demand in an inflationary environment. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector and fluctuation attributed to the amplification of changes in unit wholesale price due to the price discovery system. A moderate decline from unseasonal current levels is anticipated into early 2023 unless additional depletion of flocks occurs due to HPAI.
• December 2022 USDA average nest-run production cost was up 0.9 cent per dozen (1.1 percent) compared to November 2022 attaining 80.2 cents per dozen, mainly attributable to a 1.4 percent higher average feed cost per dozen.
• December 2022 USDA benchmark nest-run margin attained a positive value of 358.9 cents per dozen compared to a margin of 260.8 cents per dozen for November 2022. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2022 was 155 cents per dozen.
• November 2022 national flock in production (over 30,000 hens/farm) was up 0.1 percent or 0.5 million hens to 292.0 from the October 2022 value of 291.5 million. Approximately 2.5 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 24.0 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of spent flocks. From February through mid-December, approximately 44 million hens were depopulated to control HPAI.
• November 2022 pullet chick hatch was down 8.9 percent or 2.3 million from October 2022 to 23.3 million.
• November 2022 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 3.6 percent from a low volume in October 2022 to 391,200 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.6 million hens.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2022.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2022 prices and flock statistics made available by the EIC on January 5^th 2023 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous December 16^th 2022 posting reflecting November 2022 costs and production data.

COSTS & REVENUE

Components of USDA 6-Region 1^stCycle nest-run Cost of Production:-

Note: 1. Rounded to decimal of a cent

Export of Shell Eggs and Products, January-November 2022.

Exports of shell eggs since March have been constrained by availability due to progressive and cumulative depletion of 44 million hens over 11 months as a result of HPAI with the national flock at about 20 million hens less than pre-HPAI. Sharp rises in price as a result of supply-demand disequilibrium have made U.S. export prices uncompetitive as denoted by lower volumes and values over successive months. Egg products have also been impacted but to a lesser extent than shell eggs.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing the first eleven months of 2021 with 2022:-

                         U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING

                                    JANUARY-NOVEMBER 2022 COMPARED WITH 2021

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during the first eleven months of 2022 decreased by 66.1 percent in volume and 34.6 percent in total value compared to 2021. Unit value was 94 cents per dozen higher to $1.94 per dozen for the eleven-month period in 2022 compared to January-November 2021. The top two importers were Canada (42.4 percent of volume) and Hong Kong (23.6 percent), collectively representing 66.0 percent of volume and 67.4 percent of total value.

During November the volume of shell egg exports declined 53.0 percent from November 2021 to 5.5 million dozen. Value increased 46.9 percent to $16.9 million attributed to high domestic price and reduced availability as a result of depopulation of 42 million hens through November, offset by transfer of maturing pullets placed as chicks five months previously.

Canada was the leading importer of shell eggs in January-November 2022, with 26.6 million dozen representing 42.4 percent of volume and 52.6 percent of the $121.5 million total value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs. Unit price over eleven months was $2.40 per dozen compared to $1.82 per dozen in October 2022.

During November Canada imported 3.3 million dozen up 50.0 percent from November 2021 but with a corresponding 476 percent increase in value to $12.1 million with a unit price of $3.67 per dozen. The sharp increase in imports by Canada is attributed to higher consumer demand and depletion of some flocks due to HPAI. The controlled supply situation in Canada inhibits flexibility necessitating imports from the U.S.

Hong Kong was the second-ranked importer of U.S. shell eggs during the first eleven months of 2022. The 14.8 million dozen shipped represented 23.6 percent of volume and 14.9 percent of value. Unit price at $1.22 per dozen was $0.95 per dozen below the average prevailing nest-run USDA benchmark price of $2.17* over the first eleven months of 2022. This indicates a loss in revenue experienced by shippers presumably operating under contract. During November, Hong Kong imported 0.4 million dozen shell eggs valued at $0.5 million down 91.1 percent in volume and down 88.4 percent in value from November 2021 at a unit price of $1.25 per dozen. During 2021 Hong Kong imported 53.8 million dozen valued at $48.2 million

Bahamas was third-ranked as a shell-egg importer over the eleven months with 4.7 million dozen valued at $9.0 million with a unit value of $1.91 per dozen. The reason for demand should be investigated with special emphasis on undiagnosed or undeclared HPAI in this or other Caribbean nations

Mexico was the fourth-ranked importer of shell eggs during January-November 2022 with 3.8 million dozen representing 6.0 percent of volume and 3.6 percent of total value corresponding to a unit value of $1.17 per dozen, 53.7 percent of the U.S. benchmark average of $2.17 per dozen for the eleven months. During November exports to Mexico were negligible. Over 2021 Mexico was second-ranked in shell egg exports receiving 52.2 million dozen valued at $41.9 million.

For January-November 2022 the remaining nations or regions of importance were the Caribbean other than Bahamas (5.0 million dozen) and the Middle East (3.2 million dozen with Israel comprising 81 percent due to HPAI and SE flock depletions). Other importing nations collectively received 10.2 million dozen representing 16.3 percent of volume.

* USDA Benchmark nest-run unit prices: January, $1.05 per dozen; February, $1.35; March, $1.58; April, $2.36; May, $2.09; June, $1.91; July, $2.71, August, $1.91, September $2.70, October $2.84 and November, $3.40.

EGG PRODUCTS

The total volume of exported egg products during January-November 2022 decreased by 27.4 percent to 23,313 metric tons compared to the corresponding months in 2021. Total value of $107.5 million was higher by 10.5 percent compared to the first eleven months of 2021. Unit value increased by 53.2 percent to $4,611 per ton, up from the $3,010 received during January-November 2021. During 2021 the U.S. exported 35,068 metric tons of egg products valued at $109.1 million with a unit price of $3,108 per metric ton

During November 2022 the U.S. exported 2,686 metric tons, up 7.9 percent in volume but lower by 27.6 percent in value compared to November 2021. The difference of $1,243 per ton in unit price reflects the composition of exports and the relationship between World supply and demand. Ukraine is now restrained in production but India was a significant exporter during the month.

 Japan was the leading importer from the U.S. for January-November 2022 based on a value of $37.5 million and a volume of 8,163 metric tons that represented 35.0 percent of volume and 34.9 percent of the total value of U.S. exports of egg products, an increase of 1.3 percent in value compared with January-November 2021. The unit value of $4,594 per metric ton compares with the average unit value for U.S. exports of all egg products at $4,611. In November Japan imported 622 metric tons of egg products valued at $2.2 million with a unit value of $3,537 per metric ton. With conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement the U.S. is no longer at a competitive disadvantage with respect to the E.U. In 2021 Japan imported 11,796 metric tons of egg products from the U.S., 31.6 percent more than in 2020.

Canada was second in rank by volume and also in value among importers, purchasing 6,773 metric tons over January-November 2022 comprising 29.1 percent of volume and 16.2 percent of value with a unit price of $2,569 per metric ton. During November 2022 Canada was the first-ranked importer by volume receiving 1,646 metric tons representing 61.2 percent of volume but 32.3 percent of value. Volume was 137.7 percent higher and value was 46.6 percent higher compared to November 2021. Volumes shipped reflect restoration of the institutional and food service sectors and availability of domestic product in Canada.

Mexico was third-ranked as an importer of egg products over January-November 2022 receiving 2,708 metric tons from the U.S. representing 11.6 percent of volume and 12.2 percent of value with a unit price of $4,834 per metric ton. Volume and value for the first eleven months of 2022 were down respectively 43.6 percent but up 18.0 percent. During November Mexico was third-ranked among importers with 195 metric tons valued at $1.2 million. Imports by Mexico in November decreased by 14.8 percent in volume and 50.0 percent in value compared to November 2021.

For the first eleven months of 2022 South Korea ranked fourth among importers by volume with 2,153 metric tons of egg products valued at $7.3 million was down 55.9 percent from January-November 2021 with high domestic demand despite increasing production by replacement flocks after HPAI depletion. During November 2021, South Korea was not an importer from the U.S. Most flocks in South Korea have been restored to production after HPAI although along with Japan seasonal cases of HPAI have been recently diagnosed. In 2021 South Korea imported 5,140 metric tons valued at $513.3 million up 133.3 percent from 2020.

The EU-27 imported 675 metric tons of U.S. egg products during the first eleven months of 2022 valued at $19.6 million with a unit price of $2,904. Volume and value of egg products exported to the EU were respectively 94.5 and 226.7 percent higher than for the eleven months of 2021. During November exports to the EU-27were negligible.

The Caribbean imported 1,136 metric tons valued at $5.0 million over the eleven months of 2022.

COMMENTS

Exports of shell eggs and egg products to our USMCA neighbors were valued at $80.8 million in 2019 and $76.9 million in 2020. During 2021 the value of shell eggs and egg products attained $101.8 million or 32.7 percent of combined export value. January-November 2022 exports  amounted to $98.8 million in value.

In addition to landed cost, logistics and availability, prospects for long-term exports of shell eggs will be limited by disease considerations. Exports will be dependent on the willingness of importers to accept the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH=OIE) principle of regionalization in the event of outbreaks of exotic Newcastle disease or isolation of either H5 or H7 avian influenza (AI), irrespective of pathogenicity in commercial flocks. Most importing nations are now applying regionalization and permitting imports on a zonal, county or state-exclusion basis following H5 or H7 AI infection. Canada and the U.S. operate according to a 2018 bilateral agreement to maintain trade in the event of outbreaks of catastrophic exotic diseases including HPAI and END.

With the ongoing and intensifying conflict in Ukraine, egg liquid exports from that Nation will decline sharply in the intermediate term but availability in the U.S. will constrain exports.

Generally pasteurized egg products should not be subject to any embargo imposed following reports of AI or Newcastle disease in a region.

USDA Data On Cage-Free Production For December 2022

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, correlating and interpreting the data posted weekly on the EGG-NEWS Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage-Free Report for December 2022, released on January 3^rd 2023 documented an unchanged complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program at 18.0 million (rounded to 0.1 million). The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and including aviary, barn and other systems of housing was down 0.9 percent from October at 88.0 million. Comparable values for hens over successive months are questioned given the continuing cycle of placing pullets, expansion of facilities and depletion of old hens, depopulation due to HPAI but with limited application of molting. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks have reflected the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters.

Average weekly egg production for Certified Organic in December was up by 0.8 percent percent compared to November with an average of 83.6 percent on a hen-week basis. Average weekly flock production for cage free flocks other than Certified Organic in October was down by 0.4 percent from November 2022 with an average of 82.5 percent on a hen-week basis Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements laid down in anticipation of pre-Easter and pre-Christmas demand. Average flock production in December 2022 represented a balance between some HPAI depopulation, the number of older flocks some of which were molted and the relatively higher production from pullet chicks placed during June 2022.

*Includes only NE; SE; MW; SC, SW. and NW. Only 277 stores.

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on November 14th documented continued progress in harvesting both soybean and corn crops as the season winds down.

Corn is 8 percent ahead of the 4-year average having advanced 6 percent during the past week. The harvest in 2022 is three percent ahead of the corresponding week in 2021.

The soybean harvest advanced 2 percent to 96 percent, 5 percent ahead of both the 4-year average and the corresponding week in 2021.

EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the remainder of November.           

Crop October 16th October 23rd 4-Year Average Corn Dented (%) Corn Mature (%) Corn Harvested (%) 100 100   87 100 100    93        100            100    85 Soybeans Setting Pods (%) Soybeans Dropping Leaves (%) Soybeans Harvested (%) 100 100   94        100 100   96 100 100   91

The November 9th WASDE #630 estimated the average U.S corn yield at 172.3 bushels per acre (176.7 bushels per acre in 2021) with a 2022 harvest of 13,930 million bushels. The soybean yield was projected at 50.2 bushels per acre (51.7 bushels per acre in 2021) with a 2022 harvest of 4,346 million bushels.

The November WASDE #630 is retrievable under the STATISTICS Tab.