Egg Industry Statistics and Reports


REVIEW OF FEBRUARY PRODUCTION STATISTICS AND COSTS.

03/15/2018
  • February 2018 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price Rose 24.4 Percent from January 2018 Reversing Fall.

  • Wholesale Price up by 27.8 Percent.

  • Production Cost Up 3.8 Percent with Feed Higher by 6.2 Percent.

  • Sixth Successive Month of Positive Nest-run Margins.

 

Introduction.

Summary tables for the latest USDA February 2018 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on March 12th are arranged, summarized, tabulated and discussed in comparison with values from the previous February 9th 2017 posting reflecting January 2018 data.

 

COSTS & REVENUE

 

Parameter

JANUARY 2018

FEBRUARY 2018

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle)

60.45 c/doz

62.72 c/doz

Low

54.95 c/doz (MW)

57.27 c/doz (MW)

High

76.48 c/doz (CA)

79.03 c/doz (CA)

 

Components of 6-Region 1stCycle Cost of Production:-

 

JANUARY 2018

FEBRUARY 2018

Feed

32.04 c/doz

34.03 c/doz

Pullet depreciation

10.89 c/doz

11.16 c/doz

Labor

4.00 c/doz

4.00 c/doz

Housing

5.30 c/doz

5.30 c/doz

Miscellaneous and other*

8.22 c/doz

8.23 c/doz


* adjusted February 2018


 


USDA- WASDE FORECAST #575, March 8th 2018

03/08/2018

OVERVIEW

The March 8th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests were estimated based on preliminary planting intentions by farmers, long-range weather forecasts and historical data. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans were projected to be 82.7 million acres (83.1 million in 2017) and 89.5 million acres, (unchanged from 2017) respectively. The USDA retained the pre-planting corn yield at 176.6 bushels per acre (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was retained at 49.1 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017), estimated in January 2018. The USDA March projection of ending stock for corn was reduced by 8.5 percent to 2,127 million bushels due to increased exports. Ending stock for soybeans was raised 4.7 percent to 555 million bushels compared to the February 2018 WASDE Report.

CORN

The projection of the corn harvest was retained from the February 2018 Report at 14,604 million bushels compared to the 2017 harvest of 14,577 million bushels and down 3.6 percent from the 2016 near-record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts category was increased by 0.9 percent and exports by an additional 8.5 percent, possibly due to reduced production in Argentina. These changes resulted in a corresponding reduction of 9.6 percent in ending stocks to 2,127 m bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price was narrowed to 315 to 355 cents per bushel. At close of trading on March 8th CME quotations for March and July 2018 corn were 385 cents and 399 cents per bushel respectively suggesting that the USDA projected range may be too low.

MARCH 2018 WASDE #575 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2018 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area 82.7 m* acres (90.2 m. acres planted, corresponding to 91.7 % of area harvested)

Yield 176.6 bushels per acre (was175.4 bushels per acre for 2017)


 


USDA DATA ON CAGE-FREE PRODUCTION

03/05/2018

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The report for the month of February 2018 released on March 5th 2018 documented a 0.4 million increase (2.7 percent) in flocks placed for Certified Organic egg production and a 1.2 million (3.4 percent) increase in cage-free flocks compared to January 2018, reflecting the realities of supply and demand in the market.

Average flock production was unchanged at 74.8 percent for both categories compared to the previous month (accepting USDA data), which is questioned given placement of younger flocks as denoted by the increase in flock sizes compared to January 2018:-

Flock Size (million hens)

Dec ‘17 Jan.’18 Feb. ‘18

Certified Organic

14.7 14.6 15.0

Cage-free hens

34.7 35.7 36.9

Total non-caged

49.4 50.3 51.9

 

Average weekly production cases, February 2018

Certified Organic

217,963 was 211,480 Jan. +2.9%

Cage-free

535,764 was 518,599 Jan. +3.2%

Total non-caged

753,727 was 730,079 Jan. +3.1%

 

Average Wholesale Contract Price Cage-Free Brown

$1.60/doz. Unchanged since October.

Range narrowed to:

FOB Negotiated price, gradeable nest run

$1.16 to $2.10/doz. (Av. $1.60/doz.)

$1.45 to $2.15/doz. (Av. $1.88/doz.)

 

Average Advertised National Retail Price C-F, L, Brown

$2.74/doz. ($2.64 Jan ‘18.) Dec ‘17.

USDA 6-Region

High: NE

$3.04/doz. $2.91 SW

 

Low: SC

$2.53/doz. $2.52 MW

 

See weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. Previous Monthly Cage-Free Report available under the STATISTICS Tab.


 

Updated USDA Projections for 2017 and 2018 Egg Production

02/14/2018

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated February 14 th 2018 forecast of egg production. Minor updates were made to actual production for 2017 and the forecast for 2018. Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015 which was impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest.

 

 

Parameter

2015 (actual)

2016 (actual)

2017 (revised)

2018 (Projection) Delta ’17-‘18

 

EGGS

       
 

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,435

7,635

7,805 +2.2%

 

Consumption (eggs per capita)

256.3*

274.7

274.2

278.6 +1.6%

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

118 +16.8%

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook – February 14th 2018

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.


 




































































































































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