REVIEW OF MAY PRODUCTION STATISTICS AND COSTS.

• May 2018 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price Fell 45 Percent from April 2018 Consistent with Seasonal Trend.

• Production Cost Up 0.5 Percent with Feed Higher by 0.9 Percent.

• Marginal (-0.5 cent per dozen) Nest-run Loss After Eight Successive Months of Positive Nest-run Margins.

   

INTRODUCTION.

Summary tables for the latest USDA May 2018 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on June 11th are arranged, summarized, tabulated and discussed in comparison with values from the previous May 9th 2018 posting reflecting April 2018 data.

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is profound doubt as to the accuracy of the monthly flock numbers and the question is raised as to the desirability of posting accurate quarterly data in place of erratic monthly figures.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage Free report for the month of May 2018 released on June 4th 2018 documented a 0.1 percent increase in hens producing under the Certified Organic seal and no increase in cage-free flocks as compared to April 2018. Organic egg production was the same as in April despite the 0.1 percent increase in flock size. This suggests a lack of precision in collecting data at monthly intervals. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters.

Average flock production was retained at 75.0 percent for both categories in April and May (accepting USDA data):-

Kindly refer to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.

(SMS 1,003-June 4th 2018)  

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The report for the month of April 2018 released on May 7th 2018 documented a 3.8 percent increase in hens producing under the Certified Organic seal and an increase of 5.5 percent in cage-free flocks compared to March 2018. Hen numbers were exactly the same for February and March but increased on average by 5.0 percent in April which suggest a lack of precision in collecting data at monthly intervals. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks reflects the realities of supply and demand in the market.

Average flock production was retained at 75.0 percent for both categories in March and April (accepting USDA data):-

Kindly refer to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. Previous Monthly Cage-Free Report available under the STATISTICS Tab.

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated April 16th 2018 forecast of egg production. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption were increased by 1.5 and 1.2 percent respectively over 2017. Notwithstanding this disparity the benchmark New York price was increased by a third in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015 which was impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook – April 16th 2018

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January-February 2018 with the corresponding period in 2017:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN JANUARY-

FEBRUARY 2018 COMPARED WITH JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2017

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

OVERVIEW

The April 10th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests were estimated based on preliminary planting intentions by farmers, long-range weather forecasts and historical data. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans were projected to be 82.7 million acres (83.1 million in 2017) and 89.5 million acres, (unchanged from 2017) respectively. The USDA retained the pre-planting corn yield at 176.6 bushels per acre (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was retained at 49.1 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017), estimated in January 2018. The USDA April projection of ending stock for corn was raised by 2.6 percent to 2,182 million bushels due to lower “Feed and Residual” use. Ending stock for soybeans was lowered 0.9 percent to 550 million bushels compared to the March 2018 WASDE Report.

CORN

The projection of the corn harvest was retained from the March 2018 Report at 14,604 million bushels consistent with the uncertainty of the pre-planting period. The projection for 2018 can be compared to the 2017 harvest of 14,577 million bushels and is down 3.6 percent from the 2016 near-record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was retained at 5,575 m. bushels and exports were held at 2,225 m bushels. “Feed and Residual” was reduced by 50 m. bushels resulting in a corresponding increase of 0.9 percent in ending stocks to 2,182 m. bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price was narrowed to 320 to 350 cents per bushel. At close of trading on April 10th CME quotations for May and July 2018 corn were 390 cents and 398 cents per bushel respectively suggesting that the USDA projected range may be too low.

April 2018 WASDE #576 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2018 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area 82.7 m* acres (90.2 m. acres planted, corresponding to 91.7 % of area harvested)