Updated January 2025 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

On January16^th 2025 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2023 with an updated projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 16^th 2024 report.

Projected egg production for 2024 was adjusted downward by 0.3 percent from the December 2024 Report to 7,728 million dozen This will be 1.7 percent less than in 2023 due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI through December with incident cases occurring during January 2025. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2024 will be 272.9 eggs down 6.4 eggs (-2.3 percent) from 2023. The projected average 2024 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 121 cents to 303 cents per dozen above 2023.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs. The 2023 Midwest in-carton national wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th 2023. Midwest Large wholesale price was restored during May 2024 and despite substantial declines during late August through September, attained $6.06 per dozen for Midwest Large, in cartons, delivered to DCs on January 17^th 2024. The Midwest wholesale Large value should be compared to the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run December 2024 value of 74.4 cents per dozen for caged white Large, plus a provision for processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.34 cents per dozen (rounded).

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 0.5 million per week. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and among some producers by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On January1^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA¹ to be 304 million hens, 22 million or 6.8 percent below the nominal producing flock of 326 million hens before the onset of the ongoing 2022 HPAI epornitic. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include consumer demand influenced by high shelf prices and the extent of anticipated losses during the late fall through early winter migratory season anticipated to end within weeks. Resumption of losses is anticipated in late spring months.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 2.2 percent of total production over the first eleven months of 2024 did not materially affect the domestic price. Future export volume will be constrained by high domestic prices.

The USDA forecast for 2025 includes production of 7,820 million dozen, up an optimistic 1.2 percent from 2024. Projected consumption of 276 eggs per capita, would be a more realistic 3 eggs or 1.1 percent compared to the December projection of  a 2.9 percent (8 egg) increase over 2024, as documented in the December USDA report. This forecast probably presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets, both unrealistic assumptions. The increase, if it were to transpire would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $2.94 per dozen compared to the 2024 value.

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022.

According to USDA data over the first eleven months of 2024, 75.2 million dozen shell-eggs were exported valued at $176 million. Volume was 7.8 percent lower but value was 19.0 percent higher compared to the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was $2.34 per dozen, up 29.2 from the equivalent months in 2023.

Over the first eleven months of 2024, 23,947 metric tons of egg products were exported valued at $106 million. Volume and value were respectively 15.0 and 12.3 percent lower compared with the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was 31.9 percent higher to $4,619 per metric ton on average for all product forms.

Updated January 2024 USDA data² is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses. Recovery over entire 2025 considered unrealistic

Sources:  1. USDA Chickens and Eggs  released January 21^st 2025

                2. Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16^th 2025