Shane Commentary

Estimate of Non-Diagnosed COVID Cases in the U.S.


It was evident from the beginning of the COVID outbreak that many individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 but did not develop symptoms although they were transmitters of the virus contributing to ascending incidence rates.


Scientists affiliated with the National Institutes of Health(NIH)conducted a survey on U.S. adults from early May through late July 2020 to determine the prevalence of antibodies in asymptomatic individuals.  A total of 9,028 blood samples were examined from 11,382 volunteers reflecting the U.S. population that had previously not been diagnosed with COVID-19.  The presence of antibodies was determined in 4.6 percent of these undiagnosed cases.  Within this value there was marked regional and ethnic diversity.  Younger participants yielded a proportion of 5.9 percent, black/African American, 14.2 percent, Hispanic 6.1 percent and urban residents 5.3 percent.  The data indicated that there were 4.8 unrecognized cases for every diagnosis of COVID-19 during the period of review.  This would correspond to 16.8 million undiagnosed cases in 2020 by late July.


Effective April 4th there have been 30.8 million diagnosed cases with 555,000 fatalities. The NIH data suggest a total of 147 million actual infections.


Daily Trends in COVID-19 Cases in the United States Reported to CDC  7-Day moving average

To date 69 million people have received one dose of vaccine and 37 million are fully vaccinated. This implies that approximately 150 of the U.S population have an acceptable level of immunity since many of the undiagnosed individuals were vaccinated. At present 35 percent of the U.S. population is immune, some distance from the desirable 80 percent or 260 million to achieve herd immunity. With a rate of vaccination of 2.8 to 3.0 million doses per day those eligible and willing to receive vaccine will have been protected by mid-June. Those under 18 years of age representing 24 percent of the population will only receive a COVID vaccine in November in decreasing age categories following Phase 3 trials in progress. Those disinclined or hesitant to receive an approved vaccine represent a risk to the entire population as their susceptibility provides an opportunity for the emergence and dissemination of variants of SARS-CoV-2.   


Pressure Mounting to Recycle Plastics


A number of environmental advocacy groups and regional community organizations have petitioned to President Joe Biden to expedite the Presidential Plastics Action Plan.  The objective will be to reduce production of single-use plastics and place a moratorium on new manufacturing facilities. 


Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Representative Alan Lowenthal (D-CA) have introduced the Breakfree From Plastic Pollution Act into their respective Chambers.


President Biden has already issued an Executive Order addressing climate change with recycling to be incorporated into the program.  It is anticipated that in addition to national action, environmentalists will initiate action at the local level with publicity directed against specific brands, manufacturing plants and incinerators.


It is evident that many of the plastic plants are located in areas with a predominance of minority residents.  A case in point is the concentration of petrochemical facilities up-river from New Orleans. Currently there is opposition to a proposed Formosa Plastics complex in St. James Parish LA. Adjacent to the Mississippi River. Community groups are pressing for the concept of environmental justice with local and national politicians involved.


Earthworks, an international group that uses tort law to oppose new and existing plants, is shifting emphasis from oil and gas towards plastics.  The organization will strenuously oppose permits for new and expanded plastic facilities.  Concurrently the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives will be active in the area of disposal of plastic and will advocate for recycling. 


According to Chemical and Engineering News published by the American Chemical Society, the industry has formed the Alliance to End Plastic Waste with membership including Shell, Formosa, and ExxonMobil.  The Alliance through its commercial affiliations will raise $1.5 billion over five years to support efforts in education and environmental remediation.  Over the past three years member companies of the American Chemistry Council have collectively invested $5.3 billion in 64 recycling projects in the U.S.


Producers of polystyrene and PET egg cartons are encouraged to develop re-cycling programs and to apply emerging technology to reduce dependence on virgin plastic.


Iowa House Pass “Ag Gag” Bill


The Iowa House has passed Bill 775 making it illegal to enter private property without consent to obtain samples from the environment or livestock.  The Bill has been sent to the State Senate for their consideration, amendment and passage.


Federal courts have consistently ruled various iterations of all State “Ag Gag” laws, as unconstitutional based on free-speech considerations.  House File 775 replaces a previous law enacted over two years ago. This was the subject of a verdict against the State of Iowa with the Plaintiff animal rights group receiving legal fees.


To date no challenged Ag-Gag law has been supported by a Federal Court. It is about time legislatures stopped passing "feel-good" laws in response to farmers' associations and corporate lobbying. Lawmakers will either have to enact carefully crafted legislation or alternatively  persuade their constituents to become more transparent and media conscious taking the initiative to promote positive aspects of intensive livestock production. I frequently advise clients that if they would be concerned to come to work on a Monday morning to find a 60-Minutes Crew on their doorstep, then they need to do some serious introspection, evaluation and where necessary correction.   


National Grocers’ Association Calling for Federal Control Over Large Buyers-Implications for Egg Producers


The National Grocers’ Association (NGA) representing small independent food stores is calling for federal legislation to limit the ability of major chains and club stores to engage in anticompetitive behavior. The NGA has stated that their membership is at a disadvantage in sourcing products and package sizes when competing with chains including Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Target, and the ‘Dollar’ stores.  The NGA maintain that the large chains by virtue of their power obtain lower pricing and preferential supply.  The plight of independent grocers was evidenced during the COVID outbreak when restocking problems occurred.


The president of the NGA, Greg Ferrara, noted “Our members compete in markets that are increasingly dominated by a handful of national and international chains who will tremendous economic power to the detriment of America’s food supply.”  He added, “Independent grocers are increasingly struggling in the face of the growing influence of so-called power buyers who act as gatekeepers to grocery shelf space and control terms of trade in our industry.”

It is difficult to see how the federal government could intervene and establish either policies or legislation that could benefit a specific class of retailer.  Obviously if there was collusion between major chains constituting anticompetitive behavior, the Department of Justice could act if specific laws were broken. 


The situation regarding the NGA could find a parallel in the egg industry where fewer buyers are responsible for an increasingly higher proportion of the shell egg market.  The situation is compounded by the self-fulfilling prophecy of the Urner-Barry quotation. This benchmark           frequently places the egg industry in a difficult position since commercial transactions based on the Urner-Barry price discovery service amplifies both extreme rises and significant falls in price distorting markets.  The same can be said of machine trading that can markedly affect specific indexes, sectors or even individual equities.  At least with respect to the major stock markets, there are circuit breakers that can limit extreme moves.  A CME futures contract based on Midwest large would be preferable and more equitable than the current Urner-Barry quotation.



Evaluation of Farm to Families Boxes


The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition and the Food Law and Policy Clinic of Harvard Law School recently concluded an evaluation of the Farmers to Families Food Box Program. While acknowledging advantages and benefits, the extensive report incorporated recommendations in the event that USDA continues the program. 


It is acknowledged that millions of boxes of fresh produce were distributed to people in need. The program did assist job retention among distributors and benefited some small and medium-size farms.  With experience, Administration of the program that was initiated as an emergency, progressively improved.


The evaluation disclosed failure to support minority and women-owned farms and disproportionately excluded small and mid-sized farm.  The program was extremely expensive in relation to the value of produce and food items distributed especially with the early rounds of the program.  In certain areas, the program contributed to food waste, ironically the program was established to preserve produce through an efficient chain of distribution.


Many observers at the time the program was initiated regarded it as a political boondoggle. Food assistance could have been rendered to the needy more simply by expanding the SNAP and EBT programs.  In late 2020, the Farmers to Families Food Box Program was misused for political purposes with pro-Administration flyers inserted into boxes. 


Recommendations for any future program include:-

  • Distribution of produce-only boxes
  • Establish best practice guidance to ensure equity in distribution
  • Improve management of the program including a requirement that contractors submit plans to address food waste
  • Allow specific tax benefits to encourage donations
  • Evaluate bid prices based on reasonable cost
  • Ensure that best practices in food distribution and supply chain management are incorporated into the program.


FDA Responds to Congressional Report on Contaminated Baby Food


On February 8th EGG-NEWS editorialized on the report from the Sub-Committee on Economic and Consumer Policy for the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, relating to revelations of arsenic and other heavy metal contamination of baby food.  The report included recommendations to the FDA with respect to standards and mandatory testing for the presence of these contaminants.


On March 5th the FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition issued a letter to manufacturers of baby and infant food under signature of the Director, Dr. Susan Mayne, emphasizing the need to comply with Current Good Manufacturing Practice, Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food issued on September 17th 2015.


The FDA will issue guidance to identify action levels for contaminants in key foods.  The Agency will increase inspections resulting in compliance and enforcement actions. FDA will also increase the frequency of sampling of foods for babies and young children.


Cooperation will be extended to other government agencies, academia, and industry to support research and development and will disseminate additional safety information on toxic elements in foods for babies and young children.  An action level for inorganic arsenic in infant rice cereal will be finalized.  The FDA will soon convene a public workshop to discuss the science surrounding exposure and health impacts.  The agency is committed to reducing exposure to toxic elements in foods and will motivate efforts to achieve this objective.


Emergence of New COVID Variant


The B.1.525 variant that was detected in December 2020 in the U.K. and Nigeria is now present in 11 other nations including the U.S., Australia and in the E.U. 


The B.1.525 lineage  includes a number of mutations involving the spike protein with a specific change designated E484K (colloquially referred to as ‘EEEK’!).  This mutation is also common to the South African B.1.351 and the Brazilian P.1 variants and is similar to the now dominant B.1.1.7 variant responsible for extensive transmission in the U.K. According to preliminary studies, the B.1.525 variant may be more transmissible and may express greater pathogenicity compared to the 2019 conventional strain.


Evidence from South Africa and Brazil suggests that B.1.525 in common with B.1.351 may be able to evade antibodies against the SARS-Cov-2 conventional strain.  Accordingly both Moderna and Pfizer are working on modifications to their vaccines to immunize against the E484K mutation. It is emerging that as with other coronaviruses, variants will continually emerge in susceptible populations. Accordingly annual or semi-annual booster vaccinations may be required for high-risk demographics or for more general administration.


WHO Investigation Panel Reports on the Origin of COVID in China


An international team assembled by the World Health Organization (WHO) reported on February 9th on their investigations into the origins of COVID-19.  The four-week evaluation included two weeks of quarantine, allowing Zoom consultation with counterparts in the China National Health Commission followed by site visits and direct discussions.


The Blue-Ribbon Panel chaired by Dr. Peter Embarek advanced a hypothesis that COVID arose by extension from an animal host passing through an intermediary species and then to humans. This hypothesis corresponds to an understanding of the emergence of Nipah and Hendra viruses, SARS and MERS.  After visits to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the Hunan Seafood Market, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control, various hospitals where interviews were conducted with scientists and clinicians, there is as yet no certainty as to the specific hosts or mechanism for the adaptations or when they occurred.


Dr. Peter Ben Embarek Leader
of the WHO Investigation Panel

The WHO panel determined that 174 confirmed cases were diagnosed in early December 2019 in Wuhan, presuming many thousand infected individuals at this time. There were 13 different variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus identified by genome sequencing suggesting circulation of the virus for a prolonged period prior to December. China is currently examining 200,000 retention serum samples from blood banks to ascertain the temporal and spatial presence of specific antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. It is noted that research extending over a number of years was required to identify the origin of SARS and that the source of Ebolavirus has yet to be determined.


The Commission clearly rejected the unfounded speculation that the virus "leaked" or was deliberately released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This canard is regarded as unjustified Sinophobic rhetoric for domestic U.S. political purposes.


A recent publication notes that viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2 have been actively circulating in bats in Southeast Asia for some time.  A recent study demonstrated a related coronavirus in Rhinolophus bats in a cave in Southern Thailand. This virus was isolated from a pangolin in the same area.  The Thai bat virus is similar to a bat virus isolated in Yunnan Province in China.  The geographic extent of the related bat viruses includes Japan, China and Thailand encompassing a 3,000-mile range.


It is understood that China was relatively cooperative with the WHO panel despite sensitivity to international criticism arising from an obvious true-to-form initial cover-up of the emerging infection. Health authorities in China did not provide an opportunity for the Panel to review raw data on cases that would have been important in determining when and where the infection emerged.

Rejoining the WHO will be to the benefit of the U.S. both with respect to COVID-19 but also in anticipation of the next emerging disease that is considered inevitable.


Unions Leverage COVID to Negotiate Pay Rises and Benefits


Concern over COVID-19 and its impact on essential, relatively low-paid workers has enabled the Teamsters Union and other unions including the United Food and Commercial Workers Union to negotiate increased pay, benefits, and protection during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.


On January 23rd, Teamsters Local 202 settled with the management of the Hunts Point Terminal Produce Market following a two week strike. This facility is the largest wholesale produce market in the world and is located in the South Bronx, the epicenter of COVID-19 in New York City.  The market serves a population of 22 million, and is responsible for 20,000 direct jobs including approximately 10,000 unionized workers.  The union demand for a $1 per hour rise was eventually negotiated to a minimum raise of 70 cents per hour in 2021, rising to $1.85 over three years.


Apart from the Hunts Point Market strike, a number of facilities employing workers represented by the Teamsters Union have organized strikes and demonstrations.  United Natural Foods Inc. was impacted by work stoppage at their Ft. Wayne, Indiana distribution center.  U.S Foods was able to prevent strike action by Teamsters Local 104 in Tucson, AZ  by negotiating over the issue of COVID protection. Unionised nurses and hospital employees initiated work action in Chicago based on a shortage of PPE. 


It is evident that the threat of COVID among workers has created insecurity and uncertainty in addition to obvious financial loss and hardship for those infected. Unions have gained prominence nationally as apparent protectors of their membership.  The problems involving Unions would not have been as severe had OSHA and CDC been more forceful in issuing standards and had relevant federal agencies cooperated with individual states to provide PPE and other resources.  COVID-19 in 2020 was a wakeup call and it is hoped that the lessons learned will be applied to prevent future outbreaks and to alleviate the health and financial effects of any subsequent widescale disease.


HSUS Crowing Over Conversion to Cage Free


In a January 28th release, Kitty Block, CEO of the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) listed companies converting entirely to cage-free sourcing of eggs.  These include Nestle, Mondelez, both manufacturers; Aramark, a food service company; QSR chain Arby's and coffee chains under JAB ownership.


Collectively these companies represent a small proportion of total shell egg and egg liquid demand. Unlike retailers with narrow margins and faced with competition these users of eggs are in a position to pass on increased costs to customers.


Other companies including Compass Group, a food service supplier; General Mills, a food producer and Blooming Brands, operator of casual dining restaurants anticipate conversion by 2023.


It is a matter of record that currently 79.8 million hens out of a total population of a nominal 320 million in production are housed in alternative systems to cages including barns and aviaries.  This represents 25 percent of the production flock, but 35.2 percent of a presumed flock of 224 million producing for the shell egg market. In reality progress in converting from cage to cage- free slowed in the second half of 2020 mainly due to depressed prices associated with the retraction in the food service and restaurant sectors.  Eat-at-home has increased demand for shell eggs, but prevailing economic conditions favor generic eggs based on price.  The HSUS should recognize that while most people would support cage-free production, they are not willing to back this sentiment with their wallets.


EGG-NEWS is in favor of the principle of choice with a range of products reflecting housing systems as diverse as traditional cages, colony modules, barns, aviaries through to pasture with consumers exercising their best judgment in selection applying trade-offs with concern over “welfare” and price.


Organic production that represents approximately 17 million hens or 20 percent of non-caged flocks are by definition non-caged with nominal outside access. Apart from this category ballot initiatives in California and New England states and State agreements have driven conversion to cage-free housing.  The initial efforts by HSUS and kindred organizations to coerce food service companies, retailers and manufactures to convert to cage-free under the direction of Wayne Pacelle, erstwhile CEO of HSUS appear to have lost impact.


Reconciliation of USDA monthly cage-free reports and retail data suggests that as many as a third of organic and cage-free eggs may in fact be down-marketed and sold as generics given the disparity between supply and consumers’ willingness to pay. The rate of conversion to cage-free housing is now out of the control of the HSUS and has devolved into a rational marketing situation. Some affluent demographics with disposable income will be willing to pay a premium for eggs derived from a specific system. The bulk of consumers with budget constraints should not be forced to pay a “Pacelle Tax” by being deprived of lower priced eggs on the shelf.


Hunger in America


According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Household Survey released during the first week of January, approximately18 percent of adults living with children reported their household did not get sufficient food to eat over the previous seven-day period.  This is four times the level recorded by surveys conducted in 2019.  The survey covering the period December 9th to 21st, 2020 determined that 29 million adults reported that their household sometimes did not get enough to eat over the past seven days; approximately 2 million more households were in need of food during November with 7 million adults since August.  Approximately 90 million adults or 38 percent of those surveyed reported that it was difficult for their households to pay for usual expenses including rent and utilities over a seven-day period.  This figure was 13 million more than in August 2020.


Despite passage of the CARES Act, millions of families are in need including unemployment benefits, food assistance and help with rent payment.  Jobless benefits expire during March 2021 and aid to states and tribal nations is currently insufficient to provide assistance.  The Census Bureau anticipates that the undesirable health and economic situation in the Nation will persist through mid-2021.


There are indications that an additional CARES support package will be placed before the 117th Congress by the incoming Administration incorporating additional supplementary checks,  intensified vaccination to restore the economy and protection from eviction.


In 2020 egg producers were actively generous in donating shell eggs and products to local food banks to assist the needy. This civic activity will continue in our current year of challenge.


Reversing the Relocation of USDA ERS and NIFA?


EGG-NEWS previously commented extensively and forcefully on the negative aspects of the USDA action to transfer the Economic Research Service (ERS) and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) from Washington D.C. to Kansas City.


USDA Secretary, Dr. Sonny Perdue claimed that the motivation was to place USDA personnel "near their constituency-the farmers".  This is arrant nonsense.  Economists and specialists involved in the activities of the ERS and the NIFA are not involved in walking fields or interacting on a day-to-day basis with farmers.  Informed observers in academia and industry and veterans of the Agencies regarded the action by the Administration, dutifully implemented by USDA Secretary Dr. Perdue, as an effort to deemphasize studies on sustainability, climate change and trade policy. By uprooting the Agencies from their D.C. location the Administration shed senior economists and scientists who expressed views and published research contrary to prevailing policy and “alternative facts”.


As expected, key personnel with years of experience were disinclined to move from Washington and resigned en masse finding opportunities in academia, think-tanks, producer-associations and industry.  Replacements of equivalent calibre were not hired and critical research and reports on studies relating to conservation, nutrition and economics have been delayed or cancelled. Former USDA Chief Economist, Dr. Joseph Glauber stated, "it's hard to pretend it never happened".  He added, "you've uprooted everyone's lives, you had all these people quit and it’s a tough situation". 


Remedying the situation by moving relocated employees and new hires back to Washington will be an expensive and disruptive process antithetical to the second justification that the move would save money, a position that at the time was discredited. At the request of USDA, the states of Missouri and Kansas invested in incentives to host the relocated agencies that will require some form of reimbursement in the event of a return to Washington D.C.


The question facing the incoming administration and Secretary-designate Tom Vilsack will be to either retain the agencies in their current location with recruitment of suitable personnel or to allocate funds for the move back to Washington, DC.


The previous commentary on the issue is repreoduced for the benefit of subscribers.


Dairy Industry Subject to Negative Publicity on Welfare: Implications for Egg Production


The U.S. dairy industry, impacted by declining sales of liquid milk and competition from alternatives is now coming under scrutiny for alleged violation of welfare standards. Having achieved a measure of success in forcing egg producers to transition to alternative housing systems, animal rights advocates have transferred their opposition to milk production.


As with eggs, pork and beef production there will always be “bad actors” that provide activists with images that are disseminated on the internet.  It is axiomatic that management practices that cause pain and stress reflect adversely on performance.  In competitive livestock industries achieving genetic potential is critical to both margin and ultimately survival.  Accordingly dairy farmers should practice sound stockmanship and provide housing consistent with the needs of their herds.




Practices which are coming under scrutiny include debudding and castration without anesthesia; rearing in calf crates; artificial insemination; confinement in barns frequently with shackling.  The most extreme of animal rights activists consider any form of farming including gathering of eggs or collection of milk as “species exploitation”.


Animal scientists are now evaluating management systems based on the analysis of behavior displayed by dairy cattle and are providing recommendations especially in the area of group housing of calves and abolishing invasive procedures.  Given the benefits of improved housing and management, adoption of recommendations by progressive farmers is evident. Current financial realities in addition to innate resistance to changing practices considered standard by generations of farmers are impediments to progress.


The dairy industry would be well served to heed the experience of egg producers since activists influence politicians and consumers.  Given the internet, immense funding and media support, the decline in consumption of dairy products based on negative welfare perceptions will continue.  Ballot initiatives primary directed against egg production have included housing practices used in both pork and veal production.  Restrictive legislation will be a reality except in the most intensive dairy-production states, although a trend towards more concerted opposition is evident.


Disbudding calf following administration of local anaesthetic

The dairy industry is advised to intensify their responses to unjust demands but also to recognize deficiencies and implement corrective action on a national scale.  A number of progressive dairymen are leading the way and should serve as ambassadors for change.  The U.S. egg industry has changed for the better over the past two decades and has made strides in improving sustainability, welfare, product quality and image.  The pork and dairy segments of livestock agriculture should follow.


Spread of HPAI in the U.K.


The extent to which migratory birds can disseminate avian influenza virus is indicated by an outbreak in a backyard flock on the island of Sanday in the Orkney Isles of Scotland.  Thirty-nine of fifty-two free range chickens died of H5N8 avian influenza in a case documented on ProMed Mail on December 18th.


On December 14th, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Scotland, Dr. Sheila Voas advised that all commercial poultry should be confined to housing.  Avian influenza has not been recorded in Scotland for four years, but recently England has encountered H5N8 in swans, near the coast of Hampshire, on the Isle of Wight and in the counties of Warwickshire and Worcestershire. Commercial outbreaks have occurred in East Anglia and North Worcestershire.


According to the National Farmers Union of Scotland, "it is now a legal requirement for all bird keepers whether they have one hen in the back garden or a large poultry business, to keep their birds indoors and to follow strict biosecurity measures to limit the spread of avian influenza and keep out the disease".  Animal Health Policy Manager for Scotland, Dr. Penny Middleton stated, "it is crucial that everyone remain vigilant to report any signs of disease both in domestic birds and wild birds at the earliest opportunity.

What may be facing the EU in 2020/2021

A joint statement from Britain's three Chief Veterinary Officers included "whether you keep just a few birds or thousands, from December 14th, 2020 onwards you will be legally required to keep your birds indoors.  We have not taken this decision lightly, but it is the best way to protect your birds from this highly infectious disease".  Since late November H5N8 HPAI has been reported from poultry, captive non-poultry birds and free-living species in France, Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Slovenia, Croatia and Poland in addition to reports from Israel.  Between August 15th and December 7th, 561 HPAI detections were reported in the fifteen EU/EEA nations of which 510 were in wild birds including geese, swans, and raptors including buzzards and falcons.  Of the 43 outbreaks in commercial poultry, contact with wild birds was regarded as the primary means of introduction of infection.  In addition to H5N8 the predominant strain, 17 isolates of H5N5 and six of H5N1 have been identified suggesting multiple virus introductions into Europe. 


Although authorities are emphasizing the fact that H5N8 is not transmissible to consumers, zoonotic H5N1 and H9N2 cases were reported in two individuals.


The implications for the U.S. are that surveillance of free-living birds is necessary as an early warning for the emergence of avian influenza in commercial flocks. In 2014, the first cases of HPAI were diagnosed in California during late December and the major epornitic commenced in March 2015 in the northern regions of the Mississippi valley. We should all look to our biosecurity.


Contrast in Approach to COVID-19 in Mink between the U.S. and the EU


Following outbreaks of commercially farmed mink in Holland and Denmark, authorities initiated strict quarantine followed by depopulation of affected farms as a public health measure. It is not surprising that mink are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 given that a close relative, ferrets are used as a laboratory animals to study coronavirus infections. Scientists in the E.U. clearly established that mink transmit COVID infection to humans and vice-versa.  The U.S. has recorded outbreaks of COVID in Utah, Wisconsin, Michigan and Oregon, the states with significant mink production.


The introduction of a new pathogen into a dense population of susceptible animals will result in rapid dissemination of the infectious agent.  The higher the density of susceptible individuals in a population, the greater will be the rate of spread and multiplication of an infective virus. Depending on the structure of the virus, a high concentration of infected hosts will increase the probability of point mutations resulting in potentially enhanced or alternatively reduced pathogenicity or infectivity.  A mutation has apparently occurred in the SARS-CoV-2 virus affecting mink in the dense location of farms on the Island of Jutland in Denmark.  The mink strain has been isolated from humans in contact with mink but more worrisome, also among humans in urban centers far removed from the mink farms with evidence of community transmission. In mid-December a mutant mink strain emerged in farms in Greece.


The high probability of the escape of infected mink from farms infected with COVID is an important justification to rapidly deplete populations. In Denmark, trappers frequently capture feral mink suggesting that COVID infection could be transmitted to other wild mustelids including weasels, badgers, and otters.


The International Society for Infectious Diseases has notified the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) of the isolation of SARS-COVID-2 from feral mink in the vicinity of farms in Utah.  The Society commented, “To our knowledge this is the first free-ranging native wild animal confirmed with SARS-COVID-2.”  The investigators were unable to determine the presence of the virus in other wildlife species surveyed.  At this time it is known that a variety of felidae are susceptible to COVID ranging from domestic cats in households usually with an infected human, in addition to tigers, lions and leopards in zoos infected by keepers.  Since mink are solitary animals, widespread infection of wildlife is unlikely.  It is not known how long infected mink will shed the virus so it is uncertain whether a wildlife reservoir of COVID-19 could be established.


In the absence of an effective vaccine that will suppress both clinical signs and shedding, mink farms with their high concentration of animal in close proximity will represent a risk for the development of mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2.  There is some debate as to the legal justification for complete depletion of unaffected mink populations as in Denmark.  The Netherlands had in any event banned commercial mink production after 2024 and has advanced the date of depletion on a national basis with compensation. 


Since mink are not food animals it is questioned whether perpetuation of commercial farming is justified given the risks of COVID-19. Maintaining animals such as mink in cage housing virtually identical to layer cages for hens is regarded as inhumane.  Obviously the susceptibility of mink to COVID-19 will be used by animal rights groups to justify ending commercial fur production.  


There is concern that state departments of agriculture in Utah and Oregon are minimizing the problem of COVID in mink. To date the only action taken has been to quarantine affected farms, a strategy that appears to be ineffective given the spread of infection over a short period.  Misleading placatory statements have been issued by the spokespersons for departments of agriculture in Oregon and Utah. The assurance that COVID in mink does not represent a danger to public health lacks a scientific basis. We have seen this movie before!


COVID-19 has clearly focused public concern over how mink are housed and there are questions as to the ethics and morality of the industry, its contribution to society and its reason for existence in an advanced industrialized nation such as the U.S. or in E.U. counterparts.


Dicamba Emerges as an Environmental and Legal Liability for Monsanto and Bayer


Reeling from expensive claims alleging carcinogenicity of glyphosate the active ingredient in RoundUp™, Bayer is now facing extensive liability as a result of damage caused by the application of Dicamba, a chlorphenoxy herbicide.  Bayer acquired Monsanto in 2018 with Dicamba marketed in various formulations since 2015.  The compound was developed jointly with BASF and marketed in response to weeds developing resistance to glyphosate.  Accordingly, cotton and soybean cultivars resistant to both glyphosate and Dicamba were developed.


On December 4th Jonathan Hettinger, affiliated with the Midway Center for Investigative Reporting published and exposé of the Dicamba situation. The article confirmed that Dicamba  will damage or destroy non-resistant crops by both drift after application and by volatilization, a second and more serious mechanism.  Dicamba can persist in the air over a treated field for hours and can spread for as much as two miles depending on atmospheric conditions.


By 2018, approximately forty percent of all soybeans planted in the U.S. were genetically modified to withstand both RoundUp™ and Dicamba.  By the following year seventy percent of cotton planted was genetically modified to withstand both herbicides.  The problem arises with non-resistant cotton and soybean seeds and other crops that have not be subjected to genetic modification.  A number of cases have appeared before the courts resulting in jury verdicts awarding both direct and punitive damages. Damage has been caused to orchards and soybean fields including non-GMO certified organic crops susceptible to Dicamba.



Dicamba damage to non-resistant soybean plant

Internal Monsanto and BASF memorandums discovered in the process of litigation indicate that scientists and managers at Monsanto were aware of the risks associated with the compound.  It is evident that EPA has been complicit in approving and reapproving Dicamba through 2020 despite cautions from independent agronomists and those at Land-Grant institutions and Agency scientists.  One of the allegations raised is that Monsanto deliberately re-worded the statutory labels specifying restrictions on use to shift responsibility for damage from the company to individual farmers and commercial applicators of Dicamba.
The conclusions from the Hettinger article are that Monsanto and BASF released Dicamba in various formulations knowing that damage to nonresistant soybean and cotton crops would occur. Hettinger alleges that Monsanto conducted testing to generate data that would expedite EPA approval but the company failed to disclose potential problems relating to drift and volatilization. It is alleged that field investigations of damage to non-resistant crops were conducted in a manner intended to exculpate Monsanto and to limit compensation to farmers.


Shareholders Invoke Climate Change as a Risk in Addressing Corporate Governance


In an article in the November 21st edition of The Economist it is apparent that shareholder groups, including fund managers, are now scrutinizing the contribution of companies to global warming and climate change. Based on events in Australia, individual investors are resorting to legal action claiming failure to disclose risks that may prejudice future profitability and hence share value.


Quoted in The Economist article, Peter Barnett, a lawyer with ClientEarth, an advocacy group, stated “Unless the corporate sector switches quickly to meet investor expectations, I think we are inevitably going to see increasing shareholder litigation.  The Retail Employee Superannuation Trust of Australia, a pension fund, was successfully sued and agreed to settle with plaintiffs acknowledging that “climate change is a material, direct and a current financial risk.”

Coal-fired Power Plant


A similar approach has been taken by a Swedish pension fund that intends litigating as a means to pressure management to engage in climate-friendly use of assets. ClientEarth sued Enea, a major power utility in Poland, over a plan to erect a coal-fired power plant.  ClientEarth claimed that the plant would become an unprofitable stranded asset, representing a financial risk.  Following a court ruling in favor of the plaintiffs, the project was abandoned. So much for the myth of “beautiful clean coal”


It is apparent that companies failing to disclose climate risk to shareholders and with management following activities prejudicial to the environment will be subject to legal action in the future.  This will have a direct effect on share value and the willingness of institutions to purchase corporate bonds.


Estimate of the Proportion of the U.S. Population Infected with COVID-19


It is generally accepted that actual cases of COVID-19 are under-reported.  This is due the large number of asymptomatic infections and chronic and profound deficiencies in testing and availability of diagnostic resources, especially in rural areas and for the economically disadvantaged demographic.  In a report* published on November 25th, epidemiologists affiliated with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that 53 million people in the U.S had been infected by the end of September 2020.  Official reports placed the number of cases at 6.9 million, suggesting that only one in eight cases were actually diagnosed and recorded.


The CDC group evaluated available data on symptomatic illness, hospitalizations and incidence rates for COVID-19 with reference to available serologic data. It was estimated that through the end of September, only one out of 2.5 cases that were hospitalized and one out of every seven non-hospitalized cases were nationally reported. It is therefore estimated that 2.4 million hospitalizations and 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses occurred from February 27th through September 30th 2020.


It is emphasized that the report covers data to the end of September with 6.9 confirmed cases at this time.  During the past two months, the number of confirmed cases has almost doubled to 13.3 million cases suggesting as many as a 100 million among the U.S. population have been infected with COVID-19.  The report noted the disparity in age among reported cases which may be due to the fact that children were infrequently tested or presented for treatment.


The report estimates that 13 percent of cases were documented through the end of September.


This figure should be compared to an estimate provided by Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC, in May 2020 suggesting with prescience that the U.S was recording only 10 percent of actual cases. The CDC data reflecting September indicated that between one and twenty percent of the U.S. population carried antibodies against SARS-COV-2, depending on location and occupation, with an estimated average ten percent prevalence of antibody.


The fact that as many as one million people have been infected and only 10 percent carry antibodies effectively demolishes the “herd immunity” theories propagated by Dr. Scott Atlas and his adherents. Failure to establish widespread immunity was confirmed by serologic surveys conducted in Stockholm mid-year. 


By December 8th there were 285,000 documented fatalities attributed to COVID-19. Mortality rose to between 1,000 and 2,000 per day over the last half of November with over 100,000 hospitalized.  Over 15.1 million cases have been diagnosed with as many as 170,000 to 200,000 incident cases per day prior to the anticipated surge following Thanksgiving travel and interaction.


*Reese, H. et al Estimated Incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization – United States, February-September 2020 Clinical Infectious Diseases 1780 November 25, 2020


Grow-NY Prize Awarded to Soos Technology for Regulation of Chick Gender


Soos Technology claims that they have developed a method to regulate the gender of chick embryos by manipulating incubation variables. The Company was awarded the $1 million grand prize by Grow-NY an international business competition administered by Cornell University and funded by the state of New York.  The prize was awarded on the basis of a ten-minute presentation followed by 10-minutes for questions. Presumably the presentation included preliminary data to demonstrate proof of concept.


Temperature is an important variable in determining the gender of tortoises and some desert-living reptiles and the mechanism of gender development in these species has been extensively studied.  Soos Technology claims to have developed specific parameters for humidity, temperature, carbon dioxide level and sound vibrations during early incubation to modify sex determination. If successful, the technology would eliminate the hatching and destruction of cockerels in the egg production segment of the poultry industry. Despite preliminary studies to determine gender at various stages of incubation there has been no commercial applications of any of the emerging technologies in chickens. Since the commercial benefit of an effective system to eliminate destruction of cockerels is so large the challenge has attracted both legitimate scientists and charlatans to the field.


The acid test would be to subject 1,200 eggs to the Soos process and rear the 1,000 hatched (presumably) pullet chicks and determine whether their subsequent performance is consistent with strain standard.  To produce a pullet chick that is capable of subsequent reproduction with respect to peak production and persistence would confirm the validity of the process.


In commenting on the competition, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated, "innovation companies have help drive creating a lasting economic impact on New York's agribusiness as we continue our work to build our economy".


CEO of Soos Technology, Yael Alter stated, "with our Grow-NY prize money we plan to create over twenty high-paying research and engineering jobs in the next two years by building the NY Poultry Research Hub which will connect academic research with poultry startups and corporations to commercialize validated research.  We are thrilled to put down roots in the Grow-NY region".


The Soos Technology website provides scant detail on the operation of the system and is devoid of specific data or references to peer-reviewed publications to support their claim.  If the technology is valid and reproducible under commercial conditions, the industry will benefit.  Soos Technology has a year in which to demonstrate commercial applicability. In the interim additional details on how the system functions and the effects on hatchability, the capital cost of modifying equipment and reliability would add to the creditability of the company and its technology.


Until the technology is shown to be commercially viable the Company and its technology will have to be regarded with a degree of scientific skepticism as we have unfortunately ‘seen this movie before’.


California Leads in Establishing Workplace Standards to Prevent COVID-19


The Board of the California Division of Occupational Safety and Health (CAL/OSHA) has voted to implement protocols to protect employees from COVID-19 in the workplace.  In the absence of clearly defined recommendations from the Federal OSHA, California has proactively established standards to guide employers in agriculture, food production and industrial operations.

Under emergency regulations, employers not currently covered by the Aerosol Transmissible Disease Standard must:-


  • Establish and commit to writing a COVID-19 prevention program for employees appropriate to the facility
  • Identify COVID-19 hazards with relevant input from employees
  • Investigate cases of COVID-19 and establish an effective program of tracing and quarantine
  • Report all cases of COVID-19 to public health departments.
  • Special provisions are required to transport workers involving screening, separation and the use of face masks


 In the event of an ascending incidence rate in a facility, regular testing of all employees will be required.  This is based on the recognition that asymptomatic carriers can be responsible for dissemination of virus.


It is anticipated that the incoming Administration will issue nationwide rules to enhance workplace safety.  Politco reported that introduction of a National Emergency Temporary Standard will be vigorously opposed as has occurred in California.  The California Chamber of Commerce and the California Restaurant Association have already raised objections claiming infeasibility and cost to enforce the proposed regulations.


It is evident that unless the incidence rate of COVID can be reduced to more acceptable levels through workplace safety and concurrent precautions applied in communities, restoration of the economy and resumption of what might be considered a ‘new normal’ will be impossible.


Despite the statistics that confirm at least 13 million diagnosed cases and more than 260,000 fatalities and as many as 100,000 in hospital there are many in our society that believe COVID-19 is a hoax or accept that it will simply "go away".  We are now past the time for political rhetoric and misinformation disseminated on the internet. Action by state agencies such as California and the anticipated standards to be issued by the incoming Administration will be instrumental in reducing morbidity and mortality from COVID until an effective vaccine is widely administered.


In the interim, it is necessary to practice proven preventive measures including masking, avoiding large gatherings and social distancing. According to some models the simple expedient of universal masking in public could potentially save 150,000 lives by the beginning of March.


Wearing Masks Will Save Lives


According to a commentary by Dr. A. L Komaroff, in the November 5th edition of the New England Journal of Medicine, wearing masks universally in public could over 100,000 U.S. lives over the next four months. 


Komaroff, founding editor of the NEJM Journal Watch, General Medicine cited a model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington*.  Based on data from all states since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic it is calculated that universal mask use could save 130,000 lives between September 22, 2020 and February 28, 2021.  In his article Komaroff stated, "disease modeling is sometimes disparaged as just a model, not reality.  That surely is true, but future reality can only be estimated using models”.  He advances the reality that predictions by the IHME have been accurate with respect to incident cases of COVID, hospitalizations and fatalities. 


Reducing incident cases to ‘flatten the curve’ will again be necessary as universal administration of an effective COVID vaccine may only be a reality by the middle of 2021. This is based on predicted logistic problems in distribution of vaccines requiring a cold chain and the current reluctance to receive the vaccine.

Dr. Anthony Komaroff

Masked personnel on USS Theodore Roosevelt
It is hoped that with the inauguration of a new Administration there will be a relaxation of social pressures against masking. The use of face covering is a simple and inexpensive precaution to limit aerosol transmission should be accepted irrespective of demographic or political inclination as a sound public health measure. Reducing the incidence rate of COVID will expedite reopening of the economy. 


The value of masks is demonstrated by a series of investigations on outbreaks in situations where the benefits could by quantified

  • Two hair stylists with COVID symptoms served 139 clients over an eight-day period with an interaction of 15 minutes.  None of the 67 clients subsequently interviewed and consenting for testing developed COVID infection.  In accordance with company policy and local ordinances, stylists and clients wore masks in the salon.
  • A retrospective case-control study conducted in Thailand involving 1,000 subjects showed that there was a 70 percent reduced risk of acquiring COVID infection compared to individuals who did not wear masks.
  • A study of the outbreak onboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt demonstrated that face covering onboard was associated with a 70 percent reduced risk of infection.  This COVID outbreak involved 1,271 diagnosed crew-members comprising 27 percent of the personnel on the vessel, 77 percent were asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis.  Twenty-three crew-members were hospitalized with one fatality.
  • A study of 124 households in Beijing with one or more laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that use of masks by the index patient and family contacts before symptoms developed reduced secondary transmission within the household by 79 percent. 
  • Structured experiments involving transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in passenger aircraft demonstrated the beneficial effects of wearing masks combined with frequent air exchange and HEPA filtration.  Studies on passengers undertaking flights longer than ten hours wearing masks demonstrated the absence of infection in both crew and passengers  over a 14-day period following potential exposure. 
  • Based on studies in fifteen U.S. states and in a German city, it was calculated that universal masking could reduce the need for lockdowns and advert losses of up to $1 trillion or five percent of GDP.


*IHME. COVID-19 Forecasting Team.  Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States.  Nat. Med. October 23, 2020.


Prominent Food Safety Lawyer Questions Inaction By South Africa Over Listeriosis


Bill Marler, a prominent advocate for food safety and a leading plaintiff’s attorney, questions the inaction by the South African Department of Justice over the 2017-2018 outbreak of listeriosis.  A polony (sausage) product, widely consumed by lower income demographics, was responsible for over 1,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of listeriosis from January 2017 through July 2018.  The outbreak involved 216 documented deaths with many survivors enduring permanent disability.  The outbreak was extensively investigated by both local epidemiologists and international experts and was ascribed to an ST6 strain of Listeria monocytogenes isolated from patients and product and the environment of an implicated plant operated by Tiger Brands in Polokwane. 

Despite a class action civil lawsuit, there has been no compensation for victims.  South African authorities have yet to bring criminal charges against those considered responsible for the outbreak. This action is urged by Marler who addressed a video conference demanding government response. He cited criminal action brought against companies and individuals involved in significant foodborne disease outbreaks.  These include:-

Bill Marler
  • The Odwalla apple juice outbreak of STEC in 1998, resulting in a fine of $1.5 million.
  • The owners of Jensen Farms were each fined $1.5 million in 2012 as a result of unknowingly distributing cantaloupe infected with Listeria.
  • Jack and Peter Decoster responsible for an extensive 2010 SE outbreak, each served three months in jail and their company, Quality Egg, paid a $6.8 million fine.  The outbreak, extending from May to November 2010, resulted in close to 2,000 confirmed infections and based on statistical projections up to 62,000 consumers may have been affected.
  • The 2014 case against the Parnell Brothers operating the Peanut Corporation of America resulted in two-decade prison terms as a result of the 2008 Salmonella outbreak with 714 diagnosed cases and nine fatalities.
  • Conagra Foods paid an $11 million fine in 2015 following distribution of contaminated peanut butter in 2006 related to the Peanut Corporation of America case.
  • Blue Bell Creameries paid a $17 million fine following distribution of ice cream containing Listeria.  Criminal charges are pending against the then CEO, Paul Kruse.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill paid a $25 million fine following a series of foodborne outbreaks involving Salmonella, norovirus, and E.coli infections.

It is obvious that the FDA, FSIS, and the DOJ in the U.S. consider foodborne disease as a serious threat to public wellbeing.  In the U.S. any evidence of suppression of microbiological data, criminal negligence, fraud, knowingly distributing adulterated products constituting depraved indifference will result in severe penalties including the possibility of incarceration for managers and executives. Marler together with his colleagues in South Africa is seeking justice for the Listeria victims and their families.


Biofuels Industry Concerned Over Conversional to Electric Vehicles


A recent study entitled Economic Impacts to U.S. Biofuels, Agriculture and the Economy from Subsidized Electric Vehicle Penetration was released by the Agricultural Retailers Association.  The authors, Dr. Daniel Ugarte and Ken Ditzel are affiliated with the University of Tennessee.  The conclusions of the study were that conversion from internal combustion engines to electric propulsion by 2035 would reduce consumption of ethanol by 90 percent and biodiesel by 61 percent to quantities of 1.1 billion gallons and 0.8 million gallons respectively.  Decreased use of biofuels would reduce annual corn demand by 2.0 billion bushels and soybeans by 470 million bushels.  This could result in a 50 percent drop in the price of corn to $1.74 per bushel and soybeans would fall 44 percent to $4.92 per bushel. Collectively reduced demand for biofuels would decrease net farm income by $27 billion annually.


Although the figures developed in the study project the situation from 2035 through 2050, it is evident that currently the livestock industry and other users of corn and soybeans are currently supporting row-crop agriculture and biofuel producers through the Renewable Fuel Standard mandate.


EGG-NEWS has consistently maintained that the entire biofuels system supported by corn and soybean state legislators represents an indirect tax on all who eat and drive.  Since the U.S. is self-sufficient in energy and is no longer dependent on potentially adversarial supply nations, it would now be appropriate to phase out mandates. This would allow a structured transition of the artificially created ethanol and biodiesel industries to adapt to the realities of electric-powered passenger vehicles and trucks.


USDA Criticized Over the Farmers to Families Food Box Program


The $2.7 billion Farmers to Families Food Box Program initiated in May has come under intense criticism for inefficiency and inequity. Although it is acknowledged that the program was established in an emergency, there was evidently lack of planning and defective execution by the USDA, especially with regard to accepting bids from unqualified distributors, an overt lack of physical and financial control and failure to recognize and respond to emerging problems.  Many of the contractors selected were either unable or disinclined to deliver boxes to remote regions with a high proportion of needy citizens.  It took until September for USDA to recognize that there were serious inconsistencies in distribution leading to the designation of Opportunity Zones to receive special attention.

While the USDA was implementing the first phase of the program, the need for supplemental food assistance became greater as the economic effect of COVID-19 intensified especially in low-income areas of our nation. Many of the operators of food banks and faith-based organizations complained of the quality of food provided.  The discrepancy between what was delivered and prevailing prices suggested that there was both inefficiency and over charging in both states and territories including Alaska, Puerto Rico and Maine.


The entire program was unnecessary as the objective of feeding could have been achieved by simply increasing appropriations and lifting barriers to enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Alternatively by providing block grants, food banks would have been able to buy food and vegetables directly from farmers within their own areas of operation.  This would have shifted the benefits to farmers rather than contract distributors serving as middlemen.

The Box Program generated "photo-opps"

The USDA failed to recognize the importance of free school meals to children subjected to food insecurity concurrent with the progress of COVID-19 during the second and third quarters.  It was only in August that the USDA announced that schools could continue serving free meals throughout the end of 2020 subject to availability of funding.


A justifiable criticism of the program was that politically fliers were included in boxes, an action considered to be inconsistent with a humanitarian program.


Farmers Accused of Indifference to COVID-19 Among Migrant Workers


Investigative journalists have reviewed county data on prevalence rates of COVID-19 among migrant workers in Northwest States and Florida.  The Columbia University, Brown Institute for Media Innovation undertook interviews with county officials and agricultural workers in ten states during the 2020 harvest season for fruit in the northwest and produce in Florida.


The investigation disclosed that farm and food-plant workers continued in their labor despite the risk of exposure to COVID-19 as they were designated "essential" in terms of the Presidential Executive Order on April 28th.  In addition, migrant farm workers on H-2A visa programs are in reliant on daily labor for survival and for remittances to their families in their home countries. 


Problems that were uncovered in the investigation included:-

  • Failure to maintain social distancing when transporting workers from temporarily accommodation to fields
  • Failure to provide even the most basic PPE
  • Failure to undertake testing followed by isolation of infected individuals
  • Allowing workers to live in accommodation with primitive hygiene facilities conducive to infection
  • Deliberate obstruction of county and state officials investigating outbreaks of COVID-19
  • Reluctance to cooperate with county officials and non-profit healthcare organizations to provide counseling on protection against COVID-19
  • Prompt dismissal of workers complaining of COVID-like symptoms or requesting protective measures


Epidemiologic studies confirm that the prevalence rate of COVID-19 among migrant farm works far exceeded the level in the general population in counties with intensive agriculture that employed a large number of workers for seasonal cultivation or harvesting.  Investigations demonstrated instances of collusion between county and state officials and large employers with respect to testing workers and reporting results. State agencies in California distributed masks to H-2A visa workers picking strawberries and other crops.


COVID-19 will be a fact of life for the foreseeable future in cultivation of fruit and produce, even with deployment of an effective vaccine in the U.S. Since H-2A workers come from nations where vaccination programs will not be carried out, it will be necessary to vaccinate and test workers before entry to the U.S. 


Irrespective of protective modalities, no industry, irrespective of Presidential executive orders can ignore the realities of disease and to subject H-2A workers to exposure resulting in illness and in some cases, death.  Individual family-owned and corporate farms supply packers with brand name products that are sold in supermarkets.  These chains are vulnerable to adverse publicity in the court of public opinion and will be implicated in class action litigation. Ultimately producers will be subject to Federal or state mandates on protection from COVID-19 and other communicable diseases. It would be preferable to adopt a more realistic and proactive approach to preventing COVID-19 among migrant workers in 2021.


Economies of Scale in Dairy Operations—Parallels for Eggs?


The dairy industry as with egg production undergoes periods of oversupply relative to demand.  Recent economic surveys have shown that dairies milking more than a thousand head generate profits far exceeding small herds.  The USDA-Economic Research Service recently published Consolidation in U.S. Dairy Farming.  Small herds ranging from 50-100 cows and those from 100-200 milking animals are not able to cover costs and effectively they generate a negative return.  Labor is apparently the limiting factor with smaller farms surviving through the use of unpaid family labor. 


We read consistently of small dairy farms in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio going out of business with the survivors requiring greater levels of federal support and protection.  The economic pressures on small dairy farms are relentless. Progressively similar trends are evident in the egg industry with a similar diversity between large and small operations.


The number of licensed U.S. dairy herds fell by more than half between 2002 and 2019 with an upturn in both 2018 and 2019 despite a slight increase in milk offtake after successive years of falling demand as a result of competition from substitutes.


Concern over the Farmers to Families Food Box Program


The Farmers to Families Food Box program was initiated in haste in response to market disruptions caused by COVID-19.  The program was conceived by Secretary of Agriculture Dr. Sonny Perdue in response to the fact that there was an accumulation of produce and other agricultural products on farms and a pressing need to alleviate hunger among families that had lost income.  The initial program was funded at approximately $2.7 billion and an additional extension of $1 billion was recently approved using emergency authority.


 The plan was for USDA to select contractors to source produce and assemble the food boxes with distribution to food banks and faith-based organizations to be supplied to those in need. It is understood that as many as 75 million boxes have been distributed.


The program was recently reviewed by journalists Jessica Fu and H. Claire Brown, followed by an article in The Counter.  This non-profit organization investigates social issues and although considered somewhat left-of-center many of the findings have been confirmed by mainstream media.


Despite the self-congratulatory releases by USDA and personal visits by Secretary Perdue to distribution centers it is apparent that the program has operated with inadequate oversight and control. As with many hastily implemented projects the Farmers to Families Box initiative is associated with wastage and possibly fraud.  The program was the subject of an acrimonious hearing by the House Agriculture Sub-committee on Nutrition, Oversight and Department Operations on July 31st in which the chairperson Representative Marcia L. Fudge (D-OH) castigated the responsible Undersecretary of Agriculture for lack of oversight.


A statement issued subsequent to the hearing included:-

Because USDA has rushed this program out the door, there is very little quality control with regard to who gets these contracts and who is qualified to actually meet the need. Tens of millions of dollars have gone to inexperienced contractors that still haven’t delivered anywhere near what they’ve promised. 


The article in The Counter notes that boxes distributed in Puerto Rico, assembled by a Caribbean produce exchange cost as much as $100 per unit.  Commentators with experience in handling and distribution of produce claim that the cost to taxpayers represents a three-fold overcharge.  There were numerous complaints regarding quality of products packed and their selection.  Nationwide over 200 contractors were involved in the program many of whom had no experience in sourcing and assembling boxes.  Recipient agencies including food banks were underwhelmed by service and quality. Informed observers consider that the approximately $3.7 billion expended would have been more beneficial had it been injected into the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program using existing mechanisms and allowing recipients to directly purchase what they needed for their families by selecting from participating groceries and supermarkets.


While the program has benefited both farmers and those subjected to hunger, a considerable amount of taxpayer money was wasted through insufficient planning and oversight. It is hoped that lessons will have been learned from the exercise.


Michigan State University Evaluated the Effect of COVID on the Egg Industry


A study* by agricultural economists at Michigan State University and Perdue University quantified the effects of COVID on prices and volumes of shell-egg and egg-liquid sales by segments of the U.S. industry.


The study documented the profound shift from eating out to at-home preparation. This change in purchasing and consumption of food disrupted both segments of the egg market.  Panic buying in March and extending into April resulted in farm-gate and retail price increases of 140 percent and 180 percent respectively.  In contrast breaking stock value fell by close to 70 percent.  Specialty eggs including cage-free, organic and nutritionally-enhanced products lost premiums as consumers purchased generic eggs at the lowest possible cost. 


Prior to the onset of COVID-19, consumers spent 54 percent of their food expenditure away from home representing a third of all food purchased.  As the economy closed down, the food service sector using dedicated shell eggs and egg liquid collapsed and 75 percent of food expenditure comprised the purchase of groceries for at-home consumption.


Following representations to the Food and Drug Administration and supported by United Egg Producers, restrictions were relaxed allowing shell eggs that would otherwise have been broken to be diverted to retail sales.  Initially this resulted in high demand for egg cartons with suppliers forced to triple-shift plants to satisfy demand.


The research team noted that preventing future disruptions will involve relaxation of barriers preventing interaction between the two segments of the egg industry.  The study failed to demonstrate evidence that either heightened demand or the FDA relaxation of regulations “had a meaningful impact on the marketing margin for table eggs sold at grocery stores.”


It is anticipated that the findings of the study will be reviewed in current litigation relating to alleged price gouging by egg producers in actions initiated by States Attorneys General.


Malone, T., Schaefer, A., and Lusk, J., Unscrambling COVID-19 Food Supply Chains (August 10, 2020).



International Cooperation on Vaccines Necessary to end Global COVID Pandemic


It is evident that if COVID-19 is to be eradicated, an effective vaccine will be necessary and should be applied to all of the world’s population with priority extended to frontline workers, the elderly and vulnerable individuals willing to participate in an immunization program.  Even if citizens in industrialized nations are protected, the persistence of infection in less-developed countries will represent a risk to all populations, given the volume and speed of international travel.


Recognizing the need to distribute vaccines equitably in an expeditious manner in the early stages of manufacture and with priority for the most vulnerable, the World Health Organization organized the Global Access Unitiative [COVAX] involving 170 nations.  The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and the Gavi Vaccine Alliance are also involved in the initiative backed by Japan, Germany, and the EU.


It is noted that the U.S. will not participate based on the refusal of the Administration to participate in any endeavor involving the WHO.  Judd Deere expressed the policy of the White House as, “The United States will continue to engage our international partners to ensure we defeat the virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China.”


The policy of unilateralism is criticized by established global health authorities, including faculty at the Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, Georgetown University, and other institutions.  Dr. Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Center at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva stated, “It is a real blow when the U.S. says that it’s not going to participate in any sort of multilateral effort to secure vaccines”.


Smerconish, in his Saturday, September 5th CNN program surveyed  the attitude of viewers by posing the question as to whether it would be more advantageous to distribute available vaccine in limited supply on a priority basis internationally or to retain U.S. vaccines only for U.S. residents. As an indication of how far the Administration is from public sentiment, 80 percent of the 18,000 responding considered that an international prioritized approach would be preferable to a unilateral policy since it would do more to end the global pandemic.


NIAID to Fund Research on Emerging Diseases


Based on outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola and now COVID-19, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) has established the Centers for Research and Emerging Infectious Diseases (CREID).  This entity will comprise a global network concentrating on emerging pathogens associated with wildlife.  The initial funding will amount to $17 million in 2020 and will extend to $82 million over five years.


In announcing the establishment of CREID, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci stated, “The impact of COVID-19 pandemic serves as a potent reminder of the devastation that can be wrought when a new virus infects humans for the first time.”  He added, “The CREID network will enable early warning of emerging diseases wherever they occur which will be critical to rapid response.  The knowledge gained through this research will increase our preparedness for future outbreaks.”


RTI International in Research Triangle Park, NC. in association with Duke University will serve as the coordinating center to provide data management, outbreak research response and quality control.  Prominent scientists at major universities and research institutes will be responsible for regions of the world or categories of disease.  Collaborating institutions include Scripps Research Institute, University of California, Washington State University, University of Texas, Washington University and the EcoHealth Alliance.


It is noted that Dr. Peter Daszak a world-renowned investigator with a specific interest in viral disease carried by bats was unjustly deprived of NIH funding at the direction of the Administration due to his long-term collaboration with the Wuhan Viral Research Institute.  As a collaborating entity of CREID it is presumed that research support has been reinstated.  He will be involved in emerging viral infectious diseases of wildlife and human populations in Southeast Asia, his traditional area of involvement.


The need to monitor emerging diseases is considered critical given the worldwide impact of SARS-COV-2 the virus responsible for COVID-19.  Knowledge of the molecular biology, methods of transmission and epidemiology of emerging diseases is critical to proactive development of appropriate detection and preventive measures.


Yet Another Teaser From Josh Tetrick


Reuters citing various food-interest publications reported that Josh Tetrick the CEO of Eat Just Inc. is considering an IPO.  Obviously stimulated by the July 31st debut of Vital Farms, Tetrick seized the opportunity to capitalize on demand for vegetable-based protein. EGG-NEWS previosly commented on the surge in promotion articles extolling the business accumen of Tetrick and questioned the value of his egg substitute. The appearance of adulatory articles relating to his company are interpreted as “setting bait” for  private venture capital investors although he now is suggesting an IPO. As a lawyer he should realise the scrutiny to which he and his Company will be subjected in the event of a filing.

Josh Tetrick Founder of JUST


Over the past decade Tetrick has made unsubstantiated claims of imminent production of cell-cultured meat, his intention of displacing the entire shell egg industry and extensive market demand for mayonnaise and other products throught  the various iterations of his company. The past history of Tetrick and his companies can be retrieved from the web or by entering “Tetrick” or “Just” in the search feature of this website. 


His major product appears to be an ersatz egg substitute extracted from mung beans imported from East Africa and Asia. Industry observers suggest that sales of Just Egg liquid product through the first six months of 2020 have not exceeded $7 million with approximately a million units sold, representing a retail price of $7 per pack.  Unfortunately prices have not been verified since despite visits to numerous supermarkets neither Just Egg liquid nor Just Mayonnaise were available for review.


A significant comment by Tetrick is that he hopes to “hit operating profitability sometime before the end of 2021.”  Operating profit and net profit can be widely different especially with start-ups” that burn capital on R&D and G,A&S at a prodigious rate. In the event of an intended IPO filing analysts and underwriters will naturally look at market growth and profitability, along with other parameters including “character” as used to evaluate an enterprise. It is doubtful that Tetrick would care for the questions and disclosure associated with an IPO.


For the record, Vital Farms (VITL) priced at $22 and by close of trading on July 31st rose to $34.  VITL peaked at $43.30 and closed at $35.87 on August 20th.  Analysts consider the share to be  “overpriced”. Vital Farms has a market capitalization of $1.41 billion.  In contrast, Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg producer in the world, has a market capitalization of $2.04 billion and has traded in a 52-week range of $30.74 to $46.66 with a 50-day moving average of $44.55.


Third-Party Food Delivery Unprofitable


EGG-NEWS has frequently commented on the extreme competition and low profit associated with third-party food and grocery delivery.  Extreme competition has inevitably resulted in consolidation.  Recently GrubHub operating in the U.S. was acquired by Just Eat Take Away of the EU. Uber Technologies then acquired Postmates, their second choice, for $2.65 billion in an all-stock transaction. Uber Technologies has also integrated Corner Shop to establish a foothold in Latin America.

Uber Technologies recently restructured, establishing the “Mobile” segment representing ride hailing and “Delivery” responsible for food and grocery services, previously operated as Uber Eats.  A third segment “Freight” will operate in parallel with the two major company segments. 


The relative non-profitability of food delivery is illustrated by the Q2 results posted by Uber Technologies.  For the most recent quarter, the Delivery segment lost $232 million on revenue of $885 million.  In contrast, Mobility showed a net contribution to EBITDA of $50 million on revenue of $793 million.  The Freight segment lost $49 million on revenue of $167 million.  For Q2 of 2020, Uber Technologies lost $1.775 Billion on revenue of $2.241 billion with an EPS of $[1.02].  For the corresponding second quarter of 2019, Uber Technologies lost $5.24 billion on revenue of $3.166 Billion with a negative EPS of $[4.72].  It is to the credit of CEO Dara Khosrowshahi that expenses were sharply reduced over the past year.  For Q2 of FY 2019, expenses for the categories of Research and Development, Sales and Marketing and General Administration amounted to $5.92 Billion.  For the most recent quarter the company reduced expenditure in the three categories to $1.89 Billion. 


Uber Technologies has a market capitalization of $53.4 billion and has traded over the past 52 weeks in a range of $13.71 to $41.86 with a 50-day moving average of $31.80.  Twelve-month trailing return on assets was a negative 10.0 percent with a negative 52.7 percent on equity. Operating margin attained negative 34.7 percent and the profit margin negative 51.0 percent.  As of June 30th, 2020 total assets amounted to $28.24 billion with long-term debt of $9.67 billion.


Uber and other ride hailing companies have a significant problem in California.  The company recently lost a court challenge to AB5, legislation that designated drivers as employees eligible for benefits rather than independent contractors.  A California court denied a request for a moratorium in implementing AB5 until the results of Proposition 22 on November 3rd are known. This ballot initiative effectively parallels AB5 in intent.  Accordingly, the company will have to meet an August 20th deadline for compliance.  Both Lyft and Uber will incur higher costs if they are obliged by law to provide drivers with benefits including sick leave, insurance, and PPE.


Recovery of the casual dining and white-tablecloth segments of the restaurant industry is reliant on third-party delivery either provided by services such as Uber Eats or direct delivery by restaurants.  In the event that California Proposition 22 is adopted which is most likely, Uber and Lyft together with their clones will not be able to pass on increased costs to consumers and restaurants.  It is generally accepted that trends that emerge in California eventually spread eastward to take root on the opposite coast and eventually encompass the entire nation.  Financial prospects for third-party restaurant and grocery delivery do not appear promising.  Obviously, there is a need for this service, but providers cannot make a profit with prevailing rates.


Comments By ENC Director Dr. Mickey Rubin to the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee


On August 11th Dr. Mickey Rubin, Executive Director of the Egg Nutrition Center (ENC) presented comments on the Final Report of the USDA Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee.


He stated:-

“Significantly, the Committee highlighted science supporting eggs as a FUNDAMENTAL first food for infants and toddlers. Eggs provide several nutrients noted as important during this time of rapid brain development, including high-quality protein, choline, and iodine. The Committee’s thorough review of the science recognized eggs’ role in providing these critical nutrients, including eggs in recommendations from the very moment infants are ready for solid foods.


While choline is under-consumed by most Americans, the Committee noted that this poses special challenges for infants, toddlers, and pregnant women. A recent survey commissioned by ENC showed low levels of awareness of choline, among both new and expecting mothers and the health professionals who care for them. Over 70 percent of these moms and over 40 percent of OBGYN’s and pediatricians were unfamiliar with choline. With less than 10% of pregnant women meeting the Adequate Intake, this lack of knowledge represents a barrier to adequate choline consumption. These data suggest that the recommendations for choline within the Report must be amplified with education and outreach.

Dr. Mickey Rubin ENC


Related, the Report highlighted iodine as a nutrient of public health concern for pregnant women, and as a nutrient important for infant brain development. While the Report lists several foods that contain iodine, eggs - which contain 20% of the daily value – were not listed as a food to help close this nutrient gap.


As an excellent source of BOTH choline and iodine, new and expecting moms would benefit greatly from education and outreach on including eggs in their diets to achieve recommendations and support brain development.


The Report also recommended early introduction of eggs to reduce the risk of egg allergy. This conclusion aligns with previous recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics. Given older, contradictory guidance to AVOID early introduction of allergens, it will be especially important to provide clear guidance and education on this new recommendation.


The Report recognized that eggs can help Americans move towards healthier diet patterns and meet nutrient needs at ALL ages. In children, the Committee identified the diet quality benefits if energy were to be redistributed from added sugars to the Protein group – highlighting eggs as a preferred nutrient- dense option. In pre-teens and adolescents – particularly girls – eggs were encouraged for their protein and choline content. Older adults were noted for poor nutritional status related to protein and vitamin B12, two nutrients for which eggs provide greater than 10% of the daily value. Eggs also were identified as one of the few natural food sources of vitamin D, a nutrient of public health concern for all Americans.


This Report represents a tremendous step forward in helping Americans build healthy diets at every age. Egg Nutrition Center stands ready to be a partner in educating the public about the Dietary Guidelines and how eggs, as a nutrient-dense food, contribute to health and wellbeing at every age and life stage in a variety of ways”.


Are Consumers Ready to Pack Pantries Again Following a COVID-19 Resurgence


Market survey company Acosta recently determined that consumers will initiate a new cycle of stockpiling in the event that COVID-19 restrictions are reimposed.  Two thirds of those responding consider that a lockdown is either extremely or somewhat likely and that this cohort is extremely concerned over the current incidence and mortality rates of the infection.  More than a third of those surveyed indicated that they stocked up at the beginning of the COVID outbreak in March and intend once again to fill their pantries.  Fifteen percent did not stock up in March, but are inclined to do so should circumstances change.  Only a quarter of respondents did not stock up in March and have no intention of buying more than short-term requirements if restrictions are re-imposed. 

Surge Pricing in March

Darian Pickett, CEO of Acosta stated, "as COVID cases continue to rise most shoppers believe we're heading for another shutdown and plan to respond accordingly so retailers should be prepared for a new surge".  He added "hand sanitizer, masks and gloves will be the most in-demand items in additional to basic school supplies and many will opt for online shopping with delivery options".  The level of concern is illustrated by the fact that only 25 percent of those surveyed opined that they are looking forward to the holidays and do not plan to celebrate as usual.  An equal proportion is apparently in denial with no forward planning for the holiday season. The remainder of respondents accepts that the holiday season will be disrupted and subject to restrictions.


The important question is whether purchasing patterns influenced by COVID will or will not influence the seasonal increase in demand during the fourth quarter. If demand is moderated downward, given the size of the national flock, prices will be lower than production cost with a negative impact on annual profit. On balance there will be probably not be any lock-down given the timing of the 2020 election and the prevailing political climate. Recession and unemployment  will however limit non-essential expenditure on consumables and gifts with inexpensive food, including eggs benefitting. 


Prospects for Pfizer-BioNTech and other Vaccines


The Department of Health and Human Services has announced an agreement to purchase 100 million doses of a candidate COVID-19 vaccine for $1.95 billion ($20 per dose) subject to efficacy.


Pfizer recently announced that one of the candidate vaccines produced using technology developed by BioNTech of Germany stimulated antibody production and has now progressed to Phase Two evaluation. Similar announcements have been made for the Astra-Zeneca Oxford vaccine and other candidates.


If development proceeds as planned, one of the various candidate vaccines might be approved by the end of October and could be supplied in commercial quantities during the first quarter of 2021.


The announcement follows new concern as to the actual protective ability of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and also the durability of  antibodies. This is based on studies demonstrating decay of antibody as measured by ELISA assay in patients recovering from COVID-19 and anecdotal reports of re-infection. It is also possible that mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome may require periodic modification of vaccines although the basic technology and manufacturing capacity would be in place to effect modifications to maintain efficacy.


Even if a suitable vaccine is available in early 2021 the current social climate poisoned by misinformation and political polarization will detract from attaining the level of herd immunity required to suppress the incidence rate of infection. The population of the World will be obliged to continue preventive measures that have proved successful in nations such as Taiwan, Germany and South Korea for many years with or without effective vaccines.


Operation Warpspeed supports research, development and manufacturing capability of pharmaceutical companies with promising vaccine candidates.


Germany Closing in on Cockerel Disposal


Well here we are in mid-2020 with no practical solution to the problem of gender sorting to avoid depletion of hatched layer-strain cockerels.  Three years ago research institutes and startups were actively soliciting and obtaining funding for technology to offer a solution.  Techniques requiring breaking of shells to visualize embryonic development, extraction of fluids for hormone assay at 16 days of incubation, sophisticated spectroscopy, and other proof-of-concept experiments were offered.  On even superficial examination, none of these approaches had the potential to differentiate between fertile eggs containing male or female embryos at a rate that would be commercially and financially acceptable. 


Naturally along with the science-based contenders, there were a host of charlatans offering gee-whiz blackbox come-ons, only to disappear with funding.  One especially egregious contender was developed by an engineer who since has divested his LED light company who patented claimed technology to not only differentiate between male and female-bearing eggs during incubation, but could also influence the gender of embryos.  To his credit this was not a scam, but merely a delusion.



Federal Minister of Agriculture, Julia Kloeckner

And now we come to the righteously indignant.  The Green Party in Germany, in many EU nations, has gained power.  Julia Klockner, Federal Minister of Agriculture, now realizes that what was promised four years ago is still half a decade in the future.  In a recent interview with the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung, an influential newspaper in a dense poultry-producing area, she opined  “as I have not been able to see that the industry is using the existing alternatives to end chick killings across the board by the end of 2021, I am proposing a law.”  Over the past two years, attempts have been made to demonstrate the feasibility of raising unwanted layer-strain cockerels using sentiment to buttress a high price due to inappropriate genetics.  Attempts to breed dual-purpose strains representing a retrograde back-to-the future compromise approach that has been financially unsuccessful.  Farmers are generally more discriminatory and capable of assessing the value of livestock than urban liberals in Birkenstocks, especially a tenth- generation Niedersachsen bauer. 

If a law banning disposal of layer-strain cockerels in Germany is enacted, hatcheries distributing pullet chicks would close.  If the law were extended to importation of pullets derived from hatcheries in other EU nations that disposed of cockerels, the layer industry in Germany would cease.  All table eggs would have to be imported, placing considerable strain on egg producers in Holland already constrained by environmental regulations.  It seems that Klockner’s intentions would do little other than enrich producers in Spain and Italy and add to food inflation in Germany.  The bottom line would be that just as many cockerels would be euthanized.


Until an accurate, rapid and practical method of gender determination and segregation is developed, the industry will have to use all appropriate technology to render unwanted cockerels insensible before disposal.


There may never be a solution that will satisfy opponents of intensive livestock production.  It was suggested that any system of differentiation should be effective before the fifth day of incubation.  Even if this were to be achieved, purists would claim that removal and destruction of fertilized eggs containing male embryos would be gender discrimination.  Germany is hypersensitive over mass killing, especially by gas, and disposal of cockerels represents an acceptable atonement for past injustices.


Progress on COVID-19 Vaccine


In the midst of pessimistic data on the increasing incidence rate of COVID-19 in the U.S., Latin America and the Middle East, some good news on vaccine development was released that should buoy optimism. Pfizer in partnership with BioNTech SE announced that two candidate vaccines will receive “Fast Track” designation from the FDA.  The Pfizer- BioNTech consortium is competing with Moderna Inc. working with AstraZeneca PLC. 


The BioNTech and Moderna alternative vaccines have delivered promising preliminary results in human trials by stimulating an antibody response.  More extensive trials will be required to confirm that antibody level actually correlates with protection and that there are no undesirable side effects and that long-term protection is stimulated. 


Although there is a dire need for an effective, but safe vaccine, regulatory agencies worldwide are aware of both political and economic pressure to grant approval, but this imperative is tempered by their collective knowledge of past vaccine failures.  At best an ineffective vaccine will cause no harm but will be a costly exercise and will require resources to administer.  Despite raising false hopes an ineffective vaccine may prejudice the adoption of a subsequent product.  It is however possible that deleterious side effects of a successful vaccine may only be determined following large-scale administration.  Previously examples of difficulties encountered include an inactivated Cutter vaccine against poliomyelitis in the 1955, RSV vaccines (1967), swine flu   vaccine in the U.S. (1976) initial administration of rotavirus vaccines in developing nations in 2012, and dengue vaccine in 2017. Problems were only encountered after field deployment, leading to modification in the way vaccines were prepared, total withdrawal or replacement with an improved product.


Obligations of Employers with Regard to COVID-19


It is highly probable that individuals employed on farms or in packing plants will contract COVID-19.  Employers are obliged in terms of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) General Duty Clause to maintain a safe environment to take action to suppress infection.  Employers are also enjoined from releasing the identity of infected employees in terms of the American with Disabilities Act.  Results of screening or other diagnostic procedures must be held as confidential medical information.


The supervisor of an employee learning of a positive COVID-19 diagnosis is obligated to report the diagnosis to the company Human Resources Director or designated manager.

It is incumbent on the employer to take immediate action to determine the extent of infection in the workplace.  The following information can be requested from the employee:


  • A list of co-workers with close contact during the 14-day incubation period prior to establishing the diagnosis.
  • The affected employee should describe areas visited in the plant including workstation, breakroom and change rooms during the 14-day incubation period preceding the diagnosis.


Co-workers should be informed of the diagnosis without identifying the individual other than to authorize HR personnel to obtain epidemiologic information.  Affected workers or those in direct contact should be quarantined and contact should monitor for clinical symptoms and submit to testing in the event that they are concerned or develop symptoms.


A general notice to the effect that an employee has tested positive for COVID is permissible without identifying the worker. `Businesses are not obligated to disclose the existence of COVID-19 within the workforce but in the event of contact between the affected employee and third parties, it would be prudent to discuss preventive measures and subsequent monitoring of contacts.  Contractors assigning employees to a complex can be informed of the diagnosis on an affected employee noting the date which the diagnosis was confirmed.


HR departments in large companies should be familiar with requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act and OSHA regulations.  Legal advice can be obtained in advance of a possible outbreak.


Companies should take preemptive measures to prevent introduction of COVID-19 into farms and packing plants including:

  • Health screening each day
  • Encouraging the use of masks
  • Intensive decontamination at the end of the working shift
  • Insulation of dry hydrogen generators in breakrooms, offices and change rooms
  • Regular education sessions concerning protection from COVID-19 both in the community and the workplace


Status of Trade with China


In interviews with the media on Monday June 26th White House Advisor Dr. Peter Navarro, a confirmed Sinophobe, implied that the Phase One Trade Agreement with China “was over”.  This remark sent the stock market and commodity prices into a tailspin with the Dow dropping 400 points before a retraction was issued.  Navarro claimed he was misinterpreted and his comment referred to the “lack of trust we now have of the Chinese Communist Party after they lied about the origins of the China virus and foisted a pandemic upon the world.” 


Without commenting on the validity of this questionable assertion, it is evident that the Administration now displays a considerable animosity towards China. Whether this is based on the public health ramifications of the COVID-19 outbreak or the pandemic situation is being misrepresented as a diversionary tactic for political reasons is a question of speculation.  It is considered significant that President Trump tweeted on Monday evening that the agreement is still in place and expressed the wish that China will comply with commitments.  This sentiment was reinforced by Larry Kudlow, Director of the Economic Council who praised Beijing for their action on trade.


In recent weeks, China has placed orders for soybeans consistent with their purchase pattern in previous years, requiring deliveries from September onwards representing the new market year.  The USDA data confirmed that exports of soybeans to China attained 208,000 metric tons in March followed by 424,000 metric tons in April. Commitments amounting to $10 billion in terms of the Phase One Agreement have already been completed.


Currently there are delays on shipments of poultry now subject to an unjustified testing procedure for COVID-19 virus. Product from one plant in Springdale, Arkansas has been embargoed based on the prevalence rate of COVID-19 among workers.  Whether this action is based on a distorted and highly sensitive concern over COVID-19 and the recent upsurge in Beijing, or whether it is yet another one of the not-so-subtle messages sent by the Central Government is unknown at this time. Traders report that the action, also directed against Brazil is the initiative of the General Administration of Customs.


It is evident that China will be hard pressed to achieve the targets for agricultural imports required in terms of the Phase One Agreement.  The volume of commodities actually delivered would have to increase by $10 billion for each of the succeeding quarters of 2020 to attain the promised $36.5 billion for the current calendar year.  Informed agricultural economists project that China may not even meet the 2017 baseline of $24 billion.


Functional Microbiome Critical to Suppress Antibiotic Resistance


Dr. Richard Murphy Director of Research for the Alltech European Bioscience Center considered the modulation of antimicrobial-resistance in a presentation in the poultry session at the recent Alltech ONE Virtual Experience. Murphy stressed that the microbiome is involved in multiple functions including suppression of pathogens, modulating the immune system and influencing intestinal morphology.  The intestinal microbiome may be considered as an additional organ enhancing digestion and contributing to health and productivity.


Numerous factors influence the composition of the microbiome including feed ingredients, and in the case of poultry, ingestion of litter, pH of water and medication including antibiotics.  It is generally conceded that a functional and beneficial microbiome is characterized by diversity.  Unfortunately antibiotics severely reduce diversity and thereby depress the beneficial effects of a normal balanced flora.  Reducing diversity permits the proliferation of pathogens resulting in deleterious changes within the intestinal tract.  The use of antibiotics for growth promotion or therapy is associated with excretion of non-absorbed antibiotic and metabolites into the environment.  It is estimated that with respect to some antibiotics, 90 percent may be excreted in urine and 75 percent in feces.  Injudicious use of antibiotics on a specific farm will inevitably result in the emergence of antibiotic resistance.  This will contribute to dissemination of antibiotic-resistant organisms through infected soil, water ansd products.  Studies conducted in Europe and especially in Denmark show that antibiotic resistance can persist in livestock on a specific farm for prolonged periods.

Dr. Richard Murphy


Murphy suggests that strategies to rehabilitate the intestinal microbiome can reverse the deleterious effect of administration of growth-stimulating antibiotics and antibiotic therapy.  Prebiotics that demonstrate efficacy can reintroduce diversity to the intestinal microbiome with beneficial effects on health and productivity.  There are number of feed additives that can influence the microbiome including prebiotics, active live probiotics, enzymes that assist in degradation of nutrients, botanicals and short-chain fatty acids.


First generation prebiotics comprising extracts from the cell wall of the common yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) including mannanoligosaccharides, were introduced over 30 years ago and marketed as Bio-Mos™. Subsequent research demonstrated that an extract from MOS termed the mannan-rich fraction (MRF) demonstrated higher activity and induced a more pronounced beneficial response in the microbiome.  Both MOS and MRF prebiotics have the ability to adsorb pathogenic bacteria with Type-1 fimbriae including Salmonella and E. coli.  By modulating the microbiome, intestinal integrity may be improved together with stimulation of the immune response by the intestine. 


Murphy stressed that the greatest benefit in broilers is derived from administration of the MRF prebiotic early in the growing cycle to establish a beneficial flora that persists through to depletion.


Murphy noted that in addition to diversity, as a result of including MRF in feed, the microbiome became more balanced with a move away from a Gram-positive over-predominance.  A balanced microbiome is generally more resistant to colonization by pathogens than a microflora that is biased in favor of a particular bacterial grouping. In flocks with a balanced and diverse microbiome, positive effects on intestinal morphology are evident from the duodenum extending through to the cecum.


Recently attention on rehabilitation of the microbiome in monogastric livestock has focused on antimicrobial resistance.  There are multiple classes and types of antibiotics many of which were previously administered to poultry, resulting in the emergence of drug-resistant pathogens.  Bacteria can extend antibiotic resistance either through exchange of plasmids, chromosomal transfer or indirectly by phages.  Newer research has identified the presence of more than one-hundred gene markers in the broiler cecum conferring resistance to multiple individual antibiotics. This overall group of resistance genes is referred to as the resistome and can be further categorized into the so-called core and accessory groupings. Resistance in flocks can either be represented by widespread dissemination within the flock referred to as core resistance. In contrast when only a few birds in a flock carry particular antibiotic-resistant genes a state of accessory resistance pertains.


Inclusion of effective prebiotics in diets suppresses the intensity of core resistance.  This has implications for public health as it enhances the ability of the microbiome to suppress antibiotic resistant pathogens.  Studies conducted in Brazil over extended periods demonstrated a significant and progressive decrease in the recovery of antibiotic-resistant bacteria from the intestinal tract.  A broiler complex processing 1.5 millions per week over a two-year period experienced a four-fold decrease in recovery of drug-resistant pathogens of human health significance attesting to the value of a diverse microbiome.


Organic Food Sales Attained $50 Billion in 2019


According to the Organic Trade Association (OTA), sales of USDA-certified organic foods attained $50 billion, approximately five percent above 2018. Laura Batcha, CEO and Executive Director of the association, noted “A 2020 survey shows that consumers were increasingly seeking out the organic label in the first quarter to feed their families the healthiest food possible.”  She added “The pandemic has only increased our desire for clean, healthy food.” 


EGG-NEWS strongly deprecates the frequent pronouncements of the Organic Trade Association implying that generic foods are in some way less “clean and healthy” compared to certified organic products.  COVID-19 is not a food borne infection and attempts by the OTA to suggest otherwise is devoid of any scientific justification. 


Consistently, analytical stdies fail to show any superior nutritional benefit from certified organic foods compared to generic equivalents. Organic certification is based on documentation, unsupported by laboratory procedures to quantify nutrient content or pesticide residues and does not address freedom from potential pathogens. The differential in cost between organic and generic food products is justified on the basis of misinformation, perception, sentiment and fear.



Beth Ford Comments on a Post-COVID Future:


Beth Ford, CEO of Land O' Lakes (LOL) recently commented on the effects of COVID on her company and projected future trends in a post-COVID market environment.  As with many food companies Land O'Lakes, the world's largest co-operative, was faced with a collapse of the food service sector.  Many of Land O' Lakes farmer members producing hogs have been impacted by plant shutdowns and reduced capacity.  Concurrently dairy-producing members have had to dump milk and others have destroyed produce as a result of disruption in supply chains. 


Ms. Ford commented on the upsurge in retail buying compensating in part for the decline in food service sales.  In common with other food industry leaders, Ford noted a restoration in food service commenting that at the end of May, LOL was back to approximately 90 percent of pre-COVID sales.  This is reinforced by the statement by Joe F. Sanderson Jnr. addressing analysts last week stating that Sanderson Farms food service business is approaching 80 percent of the volume prior to COVID-19.  Beth Ford questions whether the upsurge in sales reflects actual increased demand or is only a temporary phase of "filling the pipeline". 


As with many food processors and manufacturers Land O' Lakes encountered difficulty in converting plants configured for food service products to supply the retail market.  Although possible, conversion is both expensive and time-consuming and neither Ford nor Sanderson see any significant change in relative production capacity for these markets.


In predicting the future of food, Ford emphasized the move to home cooking.  This is reflected in increased demand for butter and similar products used for baking. Recent IRI data and observations in club stores and supermarkets confirmed increased sales of flour.  Ford noted that current consumer purchases are reminiscent of the patterns before Mother's Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas.


 It is questioned whether home cooking will persist after consumers emerge from COVID confinement.  This commentator believes that rediscovering the benefits of home preparation of meals both in terms of cost and a sense of fulfillment will outweigh the advantages of convenience from consuming QSR and restaurant meals.  This will be especially evident among Boomers but there will be differences among age demographics in the U.S.   There are obviously new opportunities for prepared meals and meal kits providing they deliver quality and variety at appropriate cost.  Traditional TV dinners that resemble airplane food will certainly not displace restaurant dining in the context of eating at home. The cost of home-delivery over the intermediate term will also be a disincentive to purchasing restaurant meals.


In the context of changes in U.S. preferences for eating there is obviously a place for eggs in the post-COVID diet.  Initiatives established by the American Egg Board to position eggs as an every-meal ingredient should be extended emphasizing both convenience and nutritional value. In a post-recession period following COVID-19 the cost per unit of protein compared to red meat and vegetable substitutes should be advanced as a consumer benefit.


Senate Democrats Propose Increased Funding for Food Production


In a Bill under consideration by the Senate Agriculture Committee, over $7.5 billion would be made available in grants, loans and guarantees to improve distribution of food to the needy.  The Bill proposes $5.5 billion for producers to upgrade equipment, expand facilities and make available new products. An allotment of $1 billion would assist organizations involved in emergency feeding.  Approximately $1 billion would be made available to subsidize storing and distribution of perishable foods by food banks.


According to Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Ranking Member on the Senate Agriculture Committee "the COVID-19 crisis is testing the strength of our nation's food supply chain creating a ripple effect that’s harming our families, farmers and workers".  She added "this bill will help strengthen our food supply by redirecting food to families and helping farmers and processors retool their operations". 



Sen Stabenow

It is apparent that despite the best intentions and actions of Congress, making money available to the designated recipients does not necessarily relieve the stresses and hunger among families who have been impacted by COVID-19.  This is especially the case with children deprived of meals that would have been provided at their now-closed schools. It appears that between the Federal and state bureaucracies they collectively are unable to effectively even give away money! (see item on child hunger in this edition).


The egg industry is especially generous in donating and delivering products to local food banks. The inherent nutritional value of eggs, especially for children, ease of preparation and low cost for storage and distribution should be recognized by relief agencies that could purchase and supply more eggs to needy families given current needs.


Nebraska to Cease Releasing COVID-19 Data on Meat Packing Plants


Governor Pete Ricketts stated on Wednesday May 6th that the state would not release specific incidence data for COVID-19 infections in plants in Nebraska.  This decision was apparently justified on the basis of “privacy”.  County health departments have previously issued periodic reports on the incidence of COVID-19 at major plants in the state including the Tyson plant in Madison, and the Smithfield plant in Crete.


COVID-19 incidence rates should be made available since workers interact in their communities and often plants are the major employer in a county or region. Differences among plants could indicate more effective protective measures or the existence of specific risk factors that should be addressed.  Suppressing data creates the impression of a cover-up and is a reflection of a totalitarian mentality, foreign to the principles of U.S. democracy. In the absence of official figures speculative and unfounded rumors circulate leading to greater concern than from the expedient of withholding data,


Rhetoric on Phase-One Trade Agreement Should Be Toned Down


Both China and the U.S. have issued inflammatory statements recently hinting at reneging on the Phase-One Trade Agreement, signed in mid-January.  Statements by semi-official organizations in China have urged that the Nation walk away from the agreement.  Given the tight control over communications in China, nothing relating to international affairs is issued, printed or posted on news media without some form of central government approval.


Statements by those opposed to the U.S. are aggrieved over unsubstantiated accusations that China either deliberately engineered SARS-CoV-2 virus or negligently allowed it to escape from the Wuhan National Institute of Virology.  Scientists in the U.S. have refuted Administration accusations, which in past days appear to have been muted. China suffered from COVID-19 and inherent in the concept of ‘face” it is understandable that they are deeply offended by assertions that they were responsible for the pandemic. The culpability of regional authorities in suppressing information on the outbreak, even from their own government is an established fact but should be interpreted in the light of how officialdom operates in China.


Failing to interpret the response from China in its context, the President has threatened to “tear up the Phase-One Trade deal if China reneges on its purchase obligations.”  This would be mutually destructive, since China needs pork and  by early summer, soybeans. The U.S. certainly needs the export potential given partial restoration of hog slaughter and a 2020 soybean harvest estimated at 4.13 billion bushels estimated to be 15 percent higher than in 2019.


It is acknowledged that China was slow in implementing the agreement, partly due to COVID-19 but also by purchasing soybeans from Brazil as is normal during the first half of a calendar year. The agreement did allow for competitive pricing and sourcing and did not specify quantities of specific agricultural commodities to be purchased.  Starting a new trade war, while attempting to negotiate Phase Two of a trade agreement, appears a self-defeating strategy.  Certainly both parties recognize that from a political perspective President Xi does not have to face his electorate in November.


Increased Mechanization Predicted Post-Covid


In recent essay in the Financial Times Carl Frey noted that COVID-19 and its effects on industry will hasten mechanization as a response to both availability and the direct and indirect components of the true cost of labor.  Frey noted that from 2013 to 2017, approximately 12 million line production jobs in China were replaced by mechanization and robotics.  Frey also noted that in a post-COVID era, decoupling of world economies is inevitable with re-shoring of manufacturing capacity back to the U.S. Now is the time to prepare by evaluating alternative systems and to consider installing robotic and mechanical alternatives to repetitive labor. 


Congressional Call to Eliminate Wet Markets in Asia


Legislators in both House and Senate have called for closing wet markets worldwide that offer both live and dead exotic animals and reptiles as food.  A resolution introduced by Rep Steve Chabot (R-OH) representing the first district of Ohio also calls into question the disinformation spread by the Government of China regarding the origin of COVID-19.


In a separate action senators Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and four other Senatorial colleagues from both sides of the aisle have addressed a letter to the World Health Organization urging a global shutdown of wet markets that are a potential source of zoonotic infections.


Given that the wet market system is a fact of life in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, legislators should not anticipate a rapid response and compliance. In some respects their well-intentioned action may be regarded as quixotic.

Rep Steve Chabot (R-OH)

Civet, A known reservoir of SARS virus

In February 2020 the Government of China banned breeding, transporting and sale of exotics recognizing the risks associated with holding and slaughtering non-conventional species in markets selling meat from domestic livestock together with other food items.


This ban will be virtually impossible to enforce.  The edict from the central government made an exception for traditional Chinese "medicine" creating a significant loophole to continue exploitation of wildlife and perpetuating a potential means of transmission of animal viruses to humans.


From the perspective of the U.S. it would be more practical to ban our wet markets that operate in many urban centers.




Unemployment? Positions Open? Welfare?


CHICK-NEWS has consistently questioned the need for foreign agricultural workers under the H-2A program when the nation supports a large number of non-working citizens.  With the sudden increase in unemployment, and the prospect that some of the jobs will not return after the COVID-19 crisis is resolved, it is time that chronically unemployed should seek work in agriculture.


History confirms the mass movement of displaced farmers from the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression, westward to California where they found employment. This was necessary in the absence of liberal Federal and state “safety nets.”


Aid should be directed at temporary resolution of problems such as the current COVID-19 crisis. It is undesirable to perpetuate multi-generational populations with dependency as a way of life. The chronically unemployed need retraining and should be assisted to migrate to areas where both skilled and unskilled labor is in demand.


SNAP benefitted 40 million of our population at an annual cost of $60 billion in 2019. We need to provide opportunities to assist the unemployed, especially in urban areas, and create an environment where they can be productive and to establish a sense of self-worth and acievement.



HSUS to Sue USDA-APHIS over HPAI Program


Never wishing to waste a crisis or calamity, the Humane Society of the United States will initiate a lawsuit over the published USDA-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) plan to control and eradicate highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)


The HSUS conflates HPAI, a disease of avian species with COVID-19, an ongoing human infection, noting “The factory farm industry represents an imminent threat of a pandemic resulting from zoonotic pathogens associated with the intensive confinement of animals.”


The HSUS lawsuit characterizes the HPAI program as “short-sighted and dangerous”.


Kitty Block CEO of the HSUS stated, “Our federal government should require producers to agree to end their intensive confinement of chickens in cages and shift to cage-free systems that give the birds dramatically more space and ability to engage in healthy, natural behaviors.” Ms. Block is reminded that an isolated outbreak of AI in the Carolinas occurred in barn-housed turkeys and was rapidly controlled and eradicated by the USDA-APHIS. The Agency effectively implemented the same “short-sighted and dangerous” program alluded to in the HSUS lawsuit in association with state officials and the turkey industry in the Carolinas.


It is a matter of record that the initiative to establish a common federal standard for housing laying hens foundered in the face of Congressional reluctance to enact a proposed “egg bill”.  Individual states have voted to impose cage-free standards that have been upheld by Federal courts.


COVID-19 as with other recently emerged coronavirus infections including SARS and MERS are by definition, zoonoses but have no relationship with intensive production of livestock.  It is generally accepted that the coronaviruses responsible for each of the three infections was derived from bats and transmitted to humans in all probability through an intermediate mammalian host.  After undergoing mutation, infection has spread among human populations as a result of  specific epidemiologic circumstances including air travel in the case of SARS, high density of population in case of COVID-19 and contact with camels in the case of MERS.


HSUS is perverting science and reality to create legal mischief in pursuit of their vegan agenda.  Obviously Wayne Pacelle left the playbook in his desk drawer when he was ousted from HSUS for alleged sexual harassment and financial irregularities.


POET and other Ethanol Refiners Shutter Plants


Warren Buffet maintains that only when the tide goes out does one discover who was swimming without a costume.  So it is with the ethanol industry that has recently shuttered 41 ethanol plants. This industry has lurched along at the expense of consumers and taxpayers support since its inception by government mandates and ongoing Congressional protection from corn-producing states.


Since the advent of the current Administration, exemptions have been granted to small (and not so small) refiners representing a  significant proportion of the 15 billion gallons of ethanol used to dilute gasoline at the level of 10 percent to produce E-10 fuel. The EPA action is currently under litigation.


COVID-19 restrictions came out from left field in March and sharply reduced gasoline consumption and hence the requirement for ethanol. The Energy Information Agency anticipates that consumption of gasoline in the U.S will reach the lowest level in 20 years during the second quarter of 2020.  This reality coupled with the precipitous drop in the price of crude and reduced export demand has curtailed markets for ethanol.


POET will cease production at three facilities in Iowa and one in South Dakota and will postpone the opening a fourth plant scheduled to come on line in Indiana.  Jeff Broin CEO of POET stated, “across the board biofuel producers and our partners in the farm community face an unprecedented challenge”. He added “our company is working hard to ensure that every biorefinery remains well positioned to support a strong and swift recovery once daily life returns to normal.”


In their press release POET stated that ethanol producers across the country are reducing production proportional to the predicted reduction in demand for automobile fuel. This is estimated to amount to 55 percent of pre-COVID-19 requirements and represents an annualized drop in ethanol demand of approximately 8 billion gallons produced from 2.7 billion bushels of corn.  The USDA WASDE forecast #598 released on March 10th estimated that 5.4 billion bushels of corn, equivalent to 34 percent of the projected 2020 harvest would be used for ethanol.  Given the lower production of ethanol, it can be presumed that DDGS will also be reduced proportionately and that the poultry and swine industries will purchase corn at lower prices.


Ethanol has decreased in price by 38 percent since the beginning of 2020 and on April 7th was trading at $0.86 per gallon. On June 16th 2019, ethanol traded at $1.62 per gallon.  At close of trading on April 7th, May corn closed at $3.32 per bushel.  There has been no positive effect from either the Phase-One trade agreement with China or from the USMCA that will officially come into effect June 1st.


Dollar Discount Stores Must Offer Fresh Foods to Avoid Restrictions


A number of jurisdictions have placed restrictions on the number of dollar-style discount stores based on what is regarded as predatory pricing and a limited range of foods.  The biggest concerns relate to the trend that proliferation of these chain stores drive small groceries out of business. This effectively deprives low-income consumers of access to fresh fruit, vegetables and perishable foods. The rise in dollar-style stores creates the phenomenon of "food deserts" since residents of these areas, frequently without transport, do not have convenient access to full-service supermarkets


Dollar stores are strategically located and clustered in areas with low income and also in rural areas without competition from major chains. Dollar discount stores including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, with its subsidiary Family Dollar, operate as many as 30,000 stores in the U.S. This volume represents a 10,000-unit increase over the past ten years with plans to increase units by an additional 20,000 within a decade.


Since stores are in the region of 7,000 square foot in extent compared to 40,000 square foot for a medium-sized Supermarket, capital costs are low favoring proliferation.  It is estimated that there are as many as 100 dollar discount stores located within a five-mile radius in moderate to low-income metropolitan areas.


According to a CNN Business report by Nathaniel Meyersohn, Birmingham, AL, Oklahoma City, OK, Mesquite, TX and Cleveland, OH have all introduced zoning rules that limit the location of dollar stores.


In response Dollar General is introducing fresh fruit and vegetables in 500 stores and is now stocking a range of "good & smart" nutritious items.  Although criticized for the limited initial approach it is evident that Dollar General and Dollar Tree will eventually provide a wider array of health foods.


With the advent of COVID-19 consumers are favoring smaller-format units including Aldi, and convenience stores for essentials including bread, milk and eggs.  Dollar discount stores may be a valuable outlet for eggs, making them available across a wide geographic area and specifically to lower-income consumers. 


Unfortunately, this may create problems of distribution given obvious logistic challenges.  Local producers may be able to service dollar-style discount stores using smaller vehicles and regular deliveries to maintain stock held in small store coolers.  Dollar stores should be regarded as a new and possibly beneficial retail channel to increase consumption.


Stefan Pohlmann Sentenced in Germany over Salmonella Outbreaks


Stefan Pohlmann, son of Anton Pohlmann was found guilty as the responsible manager of an egg production enterprise responsible for a serious Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) outbreak in 2014. He was sentenced to one year and nine months, suspended, after being detained for eight months awaiting trial.  He was found guilty in190 cases of commercial fraud relating to distribution of eggs known to have been infected with SE and negligent bodily harm in 26 cases.  He was fined $375,000 and his company Bayern-Ei (‘Bavarian Egg’) was ordered to pay $1.27 million in compensation.  The 2014 SE outbreak occurred in 2014 and involved cases in Austria, France, Germany and the U.K.  In a subsequent outbreak of salmonellosis during the summer of 2019 Salmonella was traced back to the Aiterhofen Farm operated by the Pohlmann family.  In these cases, Salmonella was detected on the surface of eggs that were not washed as is the practice in most nations in the EU.


Anton Pohlmann (left) and his son Stefan (right)

Prison for the Animal torturer

As part of his plea bargain, Pohlmann will no longer be eligible to manage commercial livestock in Germany.  This penalty was imposed on his father Anton in 1996 when evidence of gross deviations from welfare standards was documented on farms he operated.


For perspective relating to the U.S., Anton Pohlmann established egg production operations in Ohio in 1980 when he purchased land near Croton. By 1984 his operations had 56 layer houses, 21 pullet houses, four egg packing plants, a hatchery, feed mill and support facilities for five million hens.  Eventually his Buckeye holdings included complexes in Marseilles, Goshen and Mt.Victory, OH. with a combined total of 11 million hens.


In September 2000, a tornado ripped through the Croton complex destroying 12 barns housing about one million hens.  The cleanup program was delayed and both Buckeye Egg Farm and the industry were subject to adverse publicity as hens trapped in cages died of starvation and dehydration. Depopulation was impeded by the danger of removing hens from damaged cages in unstable buildings.


The Pohlmann operations were characterized by a series of complaints, lawsuits and citations relating to contamination of streams and groundwater with manure in addition to odor and fly nuisance. These problems resulted in increasing intervention by the Ohio Department of Agriculture and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.  A major contamination episode occurred in April 1999 from the LaRue Complex causing an extensive fish kill.


Facing punitive action by the State of Ohio involving revocation of permits and adverse judgments on numerous nuisance lawsuits, Pohlmann sold his interest in the Ohio operations to a company with Orland Bethel as a front man for Jack DeCoster in 2003.  Following the revelation that DeCoster was the de facto owner and taking into account the problems experienced over ten years the Director of the Ohio Department of Agriculture recommended closure of the entire enterprise. Following a series of contempt of court charges and noncompliance with environmental regulations, Buckeye was ordered to implement a shutdown program involving two barns each week followed by divestment.


The Ohio complexes originally established by Pohlmann have been extensively reconstructed and now function in compliance with environmental and welfare regulations under family management as Versova Holdings LLC. This company formed in 2016 involves equity participation among the Dean, Henning and Boomsma families with farms in Iowa and Ohio. Their origins extend back to 1978 with the establishment of the Center Fresh Group with Central Valley Farms and Trillium Farms combining to form Versova.


Time to Separate Ruminant CAFOs from Leafy Green Cultivation


Dr. Timothy D.  Lytton a Distinguished University Professor of law at Georgia State University recently published an opinion on aspects of FDA oversight of leafy green production. There is a long history of outbreaks of Shiga toxin producing E.coli (STEC) attributed to leafy greens with successive Federal administrations attempting to devise regulations and performance standards focusing on testing procedures rather than practical preventive modalities.

The Leafy Greens Marketing Agreement was initiated in 2006 following outbreaks of food-borne infection associated with spinach.  Various incidents occurred in subsequent years with the most recent extensive series of cases in 2017 and 2018, traced back to romaine lettuce cultivated in the costal region of California and the Yuma Valley of Arizona. We are now in an era of whole-genome sequencing and FoodNet and other databases. Multistate outbreaks of food-borne infection can be rapidly recognized and traced back to source given intensity of diagnostic and epidemiologic procedures.

It does not take much imagination and perspective to recognize that the source of STEC contamination is the intestinal tract of ruminants housed on concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Run-off results in contamination of both surface and ground water used to irrigate fields of leafy greens.  Growers of lettuce and spinach have been attempting to separate their operations from CAFOs under the guidance of both academia and government agencies but their efforts may be too little and too late. 

There is no guarantee that measures adopted in 2019 and extending into 2020 will eliminate the inherent problem of contamination.  Growers will have to recognize that proximity to a CAFO is incompatible with food safety given that they are cultivating and distributing a product that is consumed raw.  In the absence of a practical method of decontaminating green produce there can be no assurance that measures adopted to date will prevent subsequent seasonal outbreaks among U.S. consumers.  Monitoring a small proportion of produce using insensitive protocols does not eliminate pathogens.  Identifying produce by farm or even field only facilities trace-back after the effect. These palliative measures create the illusion of control.

If the farmers cultivating leafy greens cannot devise a simple and effective method of decontaminating their product at a packing plant using advanced technology such as electron beam treatment then they will be obliged to segregate their fields and irrigation systems from potential contamination by CAFOs.

For too long the FDA has ignored reality and issued vague suggestions for incremental improvement.  The Agency has issued well-meaning but unconvincing statements pledging to "prioritize work with leafy greens stakeholders to develop better water standards and testing protocols."

Dr. Lytton notes that progress is slow and unlikely to yield quick answers. Either realistic measures will be adopted, or consumers will continue to be subject to reoccurring outbreaks of STEC infection.


Bureau of Land Management to Relocate DC Employees


In a strategy reminiscent of the transfer of the USDA-Economic Research Service from DC to Kansas City, the Bureau of Land Management is relocating employees this summer to a western location.  According to an article by Rebecca Beitsch in The Hill on March 5th 25 employees will work at the new headquarters in Grand Junction, CO. and 150 additional workers would be dispersed among other western locations. Eighty employees have agreed to move but eighty-seven in the DC office have indicated that they will resign and eighteen previously left the Department of Interior after the plans for the relocation were announced.

The move was criticized by retirees from the Agency and also by Democratic lawmakers who predicted that career employees with experience would leave the Agency. 

Interior Secretary David Bernhardt told a Senate Committee with oversight on Wednesday March 6th that the Agency would find qualified candidates to replace those who have resigned.  A retired senior administrator Steve Ellis stated “the relocation removes the Bureau of Land Management from the direct influence in the Nations capital and would critically weaken the Agency’s ability for career leadership and their staff to collaborate across disciplines and work closely with other key Agencies.” He added “the Administration is solving a problem that does not exist while creating new ones”. 

Chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) stated, “the Trump Administration is destroying the Bureau of Land Management by mistreating its staff and politicizing its mission and then lying to Congress and the public about the damage it is causing.  This is what happens when you put fossil-fuel industry lobbyist and anti-public land extremist in charge of government Agencies”.

The Department of the Interior believe that relocation of the Bureau will improve services since most of the land administered by the Agency, 250 million acres in extent , is located in western states. The Bureau is charged with managing recreation, grazing and energy production on public land estimated to cover one eighth of the Nation’s land area.


Nothing Positive for U.S. Agriculture From Presidential Visit to India


A posting on EGG-NEWS on Friday February 28th echoed the sentiments of Dr. Gregg Doud, Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, “that India was the most protectionist of nations in the world”. This is demonstrated by the fact that President Trump returned from his recent visit to India without a trade agreement.  Prospects of a deal were dampened by the news that U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Robert Lighthizer had cancelled plans to visit the nation in advance of the visit by the President.


Following negotiations in New Delhi, a joint statement was issued confirming that President Trump and Prime Minister Modi had “agreed to promptly initiate ongoing negotiations which they hope could become Phase-One of a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement that reflects the true ambition and full potential of bilateral commercial relations, advancing prosperity, investment and job creation in both countries”. 


During the visit of President Trump, farmers protested against imports of U.S. chicken and ethnic riots occurred.


India may lose benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences that favors the nation enjoying a positive trade balance.  During 2018-2019 India exported $38.8 billion in goods to the U.S. while importing $26.3 billion in value.  The U.S. is India’s second trading partner after China and exports to our nation could exceed $50 billion in 2020. Are they willing to risk tariffs and other punitive measures?


Budget Cuts for USDA-ERS?


The proposed Federal budget for fiscal 2021 includes a 27 percent reduction for the USDA-ERS from $85.3 million in fiscal 2020 to $62.0 million in fiscal 2021.  The reduction would impact research, publications and staff.


It is noted that USDA-ERS was subjected to a forced relocation from Washington, DC. to Kansas City resulting in considerable attrition of personnel in 2019.


It is hoped that Congress will restore funding to a level that allows the ERS to maintain their high level of service and to conduct research, irrespective of whether the results may conflict with current White House policy.


Lettuce Growers Striving to Eliminate Foodborne Bacterial Contamination


In 2018 and 2019, the Centers for Disease Control determined that Romaine lettuce from the Yuma Valley, CO. and from coastal regions of California were responsible for E. coli and Salmonella infections.


It was apparent that runoff from concentrated animal feeding operations contaminated with  Shiga-toxin producing E.coli  (STEC) was used to irrigate lettuce fields resulting in infection of consumers.  Industry groups in collaboration with Land-grant universities, consultants and federal agencies developed programs to improve the safety of leafy greens.  The following action was taken:-

  • Untreated surface water is no longer used for irrigation. 
  • Distances from CAFOs have been increased in accordance with guidelines established by the LGMA.
  • Farmers in California and Arizona are now provided with guidance and training relating to practices for cultivation and packing that contribute to food safety.  In this respect the Western Growers and the Growers’ and Shippers’ Association of Central California are involved in field extension and training activities.
  • The FDA will conduct a structured surveillance program to determine the presence of STEC and Salmonella during 2020.  It is hoped that early detection will enable federal and state agencies to divert contaminated product from the market.
  • Concurrently the Center for Product Safety is funding research to the value of $29 million on 72 research projects with the involvement of the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Service.  Following the November 2018 outbreak the Romaine Task Force was established to investigate aspects of supply contributing to potential infection and prevention.


The Leafy Greens Safety Coalition includes major chains and QSRs focusing on prevention, traceability, labeling and investigation of food-borne outbreaks from produce.


It remains to be seen whether producers in Western states can effectively prevent food-borne infections through their improvements.  The incidence of outbreaks attributed to leafy greens in 2020 will be a measure of the efficacy of various practices introduced since the 2018 harvest season.


Influenza a Greater Concern in the U.S. than Coronavirus


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate 19 million cases of influenza this season. The exposure to various 2019/2020 influenza strains has resulted in 180,000 hospitalizations and at least 10,000 fatalities among all ages. In contrast to date the U.S. has confirmed 11 cases of Hunan coronavius, all associated with travel from China.

During the present season influenza B has emerged as a predominant serotype. According to Dr. Andi L. Shane, Professor and Chief of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at Emory University School of Medicine, the strain has not been seen in the U.S. for 27 years. This means that those born during this century have had no previous exposure and therefore do not carry antibodies unless vaccinated.

Public health authorities involved in selection of influenza strains for the current season included H1N1 and H3N2 strains of influenza A and an influenza B strain for this season. The B component is only 60 percent homologous with the Victoria-origin virus in circulation. In the 25 to 65 year age group, influenza B is responsible for 43 percent of cases diagnosed, but only 23 percent of the cases in the age group above 65. Fortunately, there are fewer cases of influenza A H3N2 strain, which is responsible for severe complications in the elderly.

Generally, experience and surveillance of circulating strains by the WHO allows the incorporation of appropriate strains into vaccines. Occasionally nature throws a curveball with the emergence and dissemination of either an influenza A or B strain different from those incorporated into the vaccine.

EGG-NEWS has repeatedly advised producers to implement preventive influenza vaccination for all personnel in early fall, especially those in direct contact with flocks. In the unlikely event that a worker infected with a human strain comes into contact with a flock incubating low pathogenicity avian influenza, a recombinant event might take place resulting in the emergence of an avian strain transmissible to humans. Influenza vaccination reduces absenteism and reduces medical costs especially with complications.


Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus Under Investigation


While the number of infected individuals in China now exceeds 60,000 with over 1,000 fatalities, scientists continue to investigate the source of the infective agent termed COVID-19 formerly 2019-nCoV. Based on sequencing, it was concluded that an animal reservoir, possibly a snake, was the reservoir of the virus.


Epidemiologic data implicated the Hunan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan with early cases identified in late December leading to the closure of the facility on January 1st 2020. Recently The Lancet published a report that the index case may have been identified on December 1st and that the individual had no connection to the seafood market.


There is no question that the SARS outbreak, also caused by a coronavirus in 2003, was initially a zoonosis with bats serving as a reservoir transmitting the infection to palm civets that are consumed as a delicacy in China and are sold in wet markets. It is possible that a complex host interaction has led to the emergence of the Wuhan coronavirus that may by now be transmissible among humans following mutation.


The Washington Times reported on a conspiracy theory that the virus escaped from a presumed Wuhan national biosafety laboratory. A mildly pathogenic coronavirus, hardly more deadly in its effect than influenza, would most certainly not be a candidate for a biological weapon and without obvious substantiation, the theory is soundly rejected.


The actual incidence rate of Wuhan coronavirus in China is, in all probability, underestimated. On February 12th authorities in Hubei Province with a population of 59 million changed the definition of the disease to include clinically affected cases not confirmed by antigen detection. This led to a surge in reported cases but not necessarily an increase in actual incidence. Dr. Scott Gottleib former Administrator of the FDA noted in a CNBC interview on February 3rd that scarcity of testing reagents and kits is probably limiting confirmation of a diagnosis to the most seriously affected patients showing atypical pneumonia. It is also presumed that most of the fatalities occur in the elderly or those with predisposing conditions. Notwithstanding this reality the mortality rate , depending on divisor, is apparently far higher in Wuhan than other areas of China or in Japan and Korea


The real impact of Wuhan Coronavirus infection lies in the economic disruption associated with quarantine of 16 metropolitan areas involving over 50 million people concurrent with and subsequent to the Lunar New Year. Disruption of international travel and breakdown of supply chains will most certainly reduce the GNP of China and will surely spill over to other nations in Asia, Europe, and the Americas.


Economists are basing predictions on the 2003 outbreak of SARS, a condition which was less infective but more virulent than the Wuhan Coronavirus. Commentator Dr. Steve Liesman a contributing economist for CNBC noted that in 2020 China is a more important global force than it was in 2003 and the disruption of trade and supply chains will reduce GNP in China by as much as two percent and will have knock-on effects on China’s trading partners.


Navigable Waters Protection Rule Replaces WOTUS


The Navigable Waters Protection Rule has officially superseded the Waters of the United Stares (WOTUS) Rule introduced in 2015 by the previous Administration.


According to Andrew Wheeler, Administrator of the EPA, “After decades of landowners relying on expensive attorneys to determine what water on their land may or may not fall under Federal regulations, the new Navigable Waters Protection Rule strikes the proper balance between Washington and the states in managing land and water resources, while protecting our nation’s navigable waters, and it does so within the authority Congress provided.”


The Navigable Waters Protection (NWP) Rule defines four categories of waters regulated under the Clean Water Act.  These comprise:


  • The territorial seas and traditional navigable waters


  • Perennial and intermittent tributaries


  • Lakes, ponds, and impoundments


  • Wetlands adjacent to jurisdictional waters


The rule contains twelve exemptions from jurisdiction under the Clean Water Act and specifically in relation to farmland “features that only contain water in direct response to rainfall, farm and roadside ditches, stock watering ponds and waste treatment systems.”


Publication of the new rule was welcomed by farm groups with Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) who opined, “the original WOTUS rule was nothing but a severe regulatory overreach.”


The rule will face legal challenge by environmental advocacy organizations including the Natural Resource Defense Council that claims, “the NWP rule neglects established science and poses substantial new risks to people’s health and the environment.”


Georgia Appeals Court Supports OSHA on Injury Citation


The U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta denied a petition by Packers Sanitation Services, a cleaning contractor in a case involving injury of a worker in a broiler processing plant.  An employee of the company contracted to perform cleaning services was injured in the course of duties.  The Occupational Safety and Health Administration [OSHA] cited the contractor for two violations involving safe walking-working space and inadequate guards on machinery.

The decision in this case has relevance to egg packing operations:- 

  • Equipment should be locked-out before cleaning commences. 
  • Workers should be appropriately trained and supervised in their cleaning activities.
  •  Equipment should never be operated without protective covers. 
  • Appropriate personal protective gear must be issued and worn by cleaners including bump caps. 
  • Supervisors and managers should consistently review equipment and operations to preempt accidents. 
  • Worker committees are often helpful in maintaining awareness of safety and identifying defects and hazards that are frequently evident to those performing cleaning tasks. 
  • Any injury or accident must be documented in conformity with OSHA requirements.

The OSHA will investigate injuries resulting in referral to medical facilities. Irrespective of whether a victim of an accident involved in cleaning is employed by the company or a contractor negative publicity could accrue to the egg-packer and lawsuits will be an inevitable consequence of an incident.


Supermarket Chains Investing in Technology


In order to implement effective click-and-collect and curbside pickup programs, supermarkets are adopting packaged technology from specialist developers.


Lowes’ Foods has partnered with Radius Networks for the FlyBuy Pickup Service using proprietary AI technology. FlyBuy Pickup allows customers to communicate with the store to facilitate collection. Shoppers are notified when an order is ready and customers can indicate their proximity to a store and the time to collect an order.


Jeff Baskin, Executive VP of Global Partnerships at Radius Networks, noted “Our goal at Radius Networks is to help our partners improve the customer and staff experience with the growth of click-and-collect programs.” He added “We have built our solution to provide customers with location updates along their journey and provide accurate updates to Lowes’ Foods so that they can be as efficient as possible.” 


It is understood that H-E-B and Whole Foods have similar efficient systems limiting customer waiting time. 


Weis Markets and Brookshire Grocery Company have established relationships with Mercatus to improve online grocery shopping. The Mercatus Aisle One system has designed a “personalization intelligence engine” to analyze customer data including dietary preferences and demographics, providing services to the shopper. There are obvious advantages to Weis and Brookshire, who operate a Mercatus integrated commerce platform. Aisle One will be integrated to achieve faster check-out and make more optimal a use of in-store associates preparing orders. It is noted that Savemart, WinCo Foods, Piggly Wiggly, and Giant Tiger use the Mercatus E-commerce platform.


It is evident that to be successful in the retail food market, supermarket chains have to provide superlative service on multiple levels. This requires the application of advanced technology including remote sensing and robotics but with integration of systems that benefit the chain


Potential Impact of Listeria Outbreak on Hard Cooked Peeled Egg Sales


The recent recall of hard-cooked peeled eggs and products (HCPE) followed trace-back of a total of seven cases of listeriosis diagnosed in 2017 and in 2019 among five states.  Although the Georgia plant implicated in the outbreak has been closed, production has been shifted to a sister facility in Arizona maintaining company output.  There are numerous plants processing hard cooked peeled eggs in the U.S. and total supply should not be adversely impacted.  The obvious question is whether negative publicity might influence consumption in either the short or the intermediate term.


Data assembled by Neilson and circulated by the American Egg Board on December 27th 2019 reflected the first eleven months of 2019. This data includes retail sales and presumably excludes the food service sector. Consumption of HCPE and derived salad products during the eleven months of 2019 should represent the basis of future comparisons as we move through the first quarter of 2020.  Based on the data for January through December it is calculated that HCPE represented 1.0 percent of the volume of eggs sold at retail amounting to 33.8 million egg equivalents or 2.8 million dozen out of a total of 3.35 billion shell egg equivalents or approximately 0.3 billion dozen.  It is significant that HCPE sales grew at an 8.7 percent rate in 2019 compared to the previous year.  Shell egg sales in comparison increased by 1.5 percent and egg products sold at retail declined by 2.9 percent. 


The dollar value of HCPE at retail was $167.4 million, three percent of the $6.1 billion for all retail sales of shell eggs and products.  The average unit value of $2.96 per dozen for HCPE increased by 9.1 percent in 2019 compared to a 10.7 percent decline for shell eggs and a 4.2 percent drop for retail egg products.  For the eleven-month reporting period, Neilson calculated that six-count packs represented 55 percent of sales followed by two-count packs at 23 percent.  These categories increased by 12.0 percent and 16.1 percent respectively compared to 2018.


In reviewing retail channels for HCPE, conventional supermarkets and groceries represented 56 percent of volume, up by 5.3 percent from 2018.  Convenience stores accounted for 16 percent of sales in 2019, up by 3 percent from 2018.  The combination of club stores and dollar stores accounted for 27 percent of sales, up by 18.8 percent compared to the first eleven months of 2018.


In February 2020, EGG-NEWS will compare volumes, prices and trends in an attempt to determine whether the Listeria recall and consequential but muted adverse publicity had had any effect on consumption of HCPE.


Adverse Jury Verdicts in North Carolina Hog Nuisance Cases to be Appealed


The 4th Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals, will consider the first of five adverse verdicts against Murphy-Brown LLC, a subsidiary of Smithfield Foods, owned by the WH Group of China. Juries in five cases awarded significant compensation to plaintiffs in a series of trials in Raleigh, NC. State law reduced the awards amounting to $550 million among the five cases. Further litigation at the Federal court level is in abeyance until a ruling from the Court of Appeals.


At issue is alleged nuisance from spreading liquid from manure lagoons on agricultural land creating odor and a consequential reduction in property values for neighbors of contract farms. The outcome of this litigation is important with regard to the future of all CAFOs.


For decades, the hog industry in North Carolina has relied on lagoons to dispose of manure despite nuisance and the seasonal risk associated with environmental damage following hurricanes. Alternatives including anaerobic digesters have been installed on some farms but both contractors and Murphy-Brown are disinclined to expend capital on alternatives to lagoons.


It is noted that the egg industry used flush-houses and lagoons in the 1960s and 1970s but converted to high-rise housing with under-cage manure storage as a result of the cost and environmental restraints.


Connecticut Department of Labor Fines Labor Recruiters for Hillandale Farms


According to a detailed report by Stephen Singer in the Hartford Courant the Connecticut Department of Labor has fined two labor-recruiting companies for improper classification of foreign workers and employing minors.  Five Brothers of Sunbury, PA. was fined $80,000 and Whitmore Poultry was fined $90,000.  The two companies were providing labor to Hillandale Farms of Connecticut for their Bozrah Complex.


Thomas J. Wydra, director of the Department of Labor, Wage and Workplace Standards Division noted that, “Classifying workers as independent contractors results in the employer paying lower worker compensation premiums, taxes and unemployment insurance costs.”  He added, “These business practices are an unacceptable way to operate in Connecticut and is generally accepted that all workers should be provided with workplace protection and the public should not bear the cost that are the legal responsibility of employers”.


During an inspection of the operation on October 11th investigators determined that 34 employees of Five Brothers but effectively working for Hillandale Farms were misclassified as independent contractors.  The company was cited for 602 violations.


The Connecticut Department of Labor determined that 16 young workers including minors were also misclassified as independent contractors and had worked at the Bozrah location as employees of Whitmore Poultry for eight months and had been paid in cash.

According to the findings stop orders were imposed on both Whitmore Poultry and Five Brothers.


Using labor-providers as a means for actual employers to evade their responsibility for ensuring that workers are in fact legally eligible to work. The producers are shifting the onus to review documentation and process applicants and to make appropriate deductions for social security and other benefits.  Using subterfuges to avoid labor and eligibility laws is ultimately deleterious to the image of the egg industry and is strongly deprecated.


Although there is limited use of contract labor in the egg industry according to contacts, most of the workers are employed in work-crews for moving or vaccination.  Notwithstanding the use of work-crews all reputable companies insist that the employees of the contractors are subject to the E-Verify program and their employment and remuneration is consist with state and federal policy.


Confusion Over Recall of Romaine Lettuce-Contrast with the U.S Egg Industry


On October 31st the Food and Drug Administration announced that Romaine lettuce was safe to eat following an outbreak of E.coli O157:H7. The outbreak involved 40 cases in sixteen states with product grown in the Salinas Valley of California. On Friday, November 22nd the FDA and CDC specifically implicated Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, San Bonito and Monterrey Counties in California as involved in the outbreak and advised that lettuce derived from the designated area should be recalled. Consumers were warned not use lettuce including whole heads, hearts and pre-cut packs and salad mixes.

The problem that has emerged relates to identification and specifically the product traceability identifiers on labels affixed to cases and cartons. This has predictably created consumer resistance impacting growers in the Yuma Valley and those outside the designated counties in California that at the present time are not involved in the recall.

The travails of the Leafy Produce Marketing Association and individual growers contrasts with the situation in the egg industry. Apart from comprehensive surveillance of flocks for SE, each carton bears a plant of origin and each packer maintains comprehensive paper or electronic records to initiate trace-forward within an hour. Some plants use Ovotrack™ technology that can follow product from farm to retail delivery using barcoding. Notwithstanding the present situation, consumer confidence could be enhanced by imprinting individual eggs with codes using the available AccuPrinter™ at a cost of 0.5 cents per dozen.


Kroger Enters Into Yet another Food Distribution Endeavor


In recent months, Kroger seems to be diverging from its core competency as a leading food retailer through its supermarket chain.  The latest iteration is a joint venture with an enterprise named ClusterTruck.  With the initial reading of the announcement it occurred to this commentator that it was in fact a spoof.  The first negative was the unfortunate name of the company deploying mobile kitchens, basically sophisticated food trucks.  The name may have appeared amusing at 2 am in an extended planning session involving superannuated frat boys back in 2015 but the appellation is inconsistent with good taste.

The ClusterTruck concept involves consumers ordering a meal using an app and within 30 minutes will receive a cooked delivery less than 10 minutes from the oven.


Susie Monford, Group Vice-president of Fresh for Kroger stated, “Kroger delivery kitchen customers can order pizza or pad Thai on the same order and get it hot and fresh within minutes of the meals being prepared.  We are excited to work together to bring this partnership to life to provide our customers with real food delivered to their doorstep.”


Chris Baggott, co-founder and CEO of Cluster Truck stated, “This winning combination has allowed us to thrill customers across the country while achieving profitability.  We are excited to partner with Kroger to redefine the food experience for their valued customers.”


I’m now sure that this isn’t a spoof but whatever happened to either cooking in one’s own kitchen or simply dining in a restaurant?


CDC Issues Antibiotic Resistance Report


The release by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2019 documents 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections in the U.S. each year. Collectively, these cases resulted in 35,000 fatalities. Within this total were 223,000 cases of Clostridioides difficile (“CDiff”) in 2017 with 12,800 fatalities.

The report lists 18 antibiotic-resistant bacteria and fungi and includes a Watch List identifying three emerging pathogens that could result in serious outcomes.

  • Urgent threats are represented by carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter, Clostridioides difficile, carbapenemm-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE).
  • Serious threats are represented by drug-resistant Campylobacter, non-typhodial Salmonella, Shigella, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), multi drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae.

In a forward to the report, Dr. Robert R. Redfield, Director of the CDC noted that we should stop referring to a coming post-antibiotic era, since it’s already here. Redfield opines that we should stop playing the blame game and recognize the role that industry, farmers, healthcare providers are all involved in emerging drug resistance. He stressed that we should not rely on new antibiotics that inevitably will become ineffective. He urges aggressive strategies including biosecurity and care in preventing infection. He concluded his remarks by noting that antibiotic resistance is universal and occurs in every U.S. state and every country in the world. He predicts the problem will become worse unless sound antibiotic stewardship is exercised.


Speculation on Just IPO


At approximately six-month intervals, Josh Tetrick receives adulatory publicity for his business acumen and concern for the environment. Just, the most recent iteration of the enterprises he operates was accorded the usual treatment by less than conscientious journalists with regard to an IPO. Tetrick is on record as intending to replace the entire complement of U.S. laying hens by substituting his brand of egg substitute.


It would appear that he and Just are riding on the somewhat tattered coattails of Beyond Meat.  Opponents of intensive livestock production and the financially naïve are speculating on an IPO although Tetrick has indicated “no timeline but at some point we will do it”.  Given concern over the rapid rise and then fall in share price of Beyond Meat, negative profitability and impending competition, Just would have great difficulty in obtaining a listing. Basically Just markets an ersatz mayonnaise, cookie dough and now a scrambled egg substitute based on mung beans.


It would appear that Tetrick has initiated a presence in China for his company where even a fraction of a vast market can accrue large sales.  Investors in the U.S. have become weary of the grandiose promises by Tetrick over the years and are obviously concerned over allegations of unethical marketing practices, defective corporate governance and churn in directors and managers over the years associated with Hampton Creek and other entities under his management.


Approximately two years ago, when cell-cultured meat was in vogue Tetrick announced that his company would market a product within a year.  This was obviously nonsense at the time given the lack of technical resources available to his company and that fact that label regulations and standards for cell-cultured meat will not be finalized before 2021.  In any event there is no indication that any of the current companies involved in the development of cell-cultured meat in the U.S., Holland and Israel can achieve a competitive price to conventional meat in the foreseeable future without a radical breakthrough in technology or advantage from scale of operation.


Journalists entering his orbit would be well advised to carefully investigate the claims made by Tetrick, consider the history of his numerous companies and evaluate market realities in promoting his image and businesses.  Moving the focus of his company to China without having achieved market penetration in the U.S. and with claims to sell product in India and the EU are probably expressions of desperation. Relocating to a new continent is an attempt to generate financial support from the uninitiated.  An IPO would be an unacceptable strategy for Tetrick and his company since this would involve preparation of a prospectus and would engender critical evaluation of his track record and prospects.


As with previous postings Josh Tetrick is welcome to respond to this commentary but with substantiation of claims, presentation of realistic business plans and technical data.


China Experiences Declining Rate of Economic Growth-The U.S Response?


Michael Beckley writing in the October edition of Foreign Affairs in an article entitled United States Fear of Faltering China predicts a more aggressive “mercantilist expansion” by that Nation. Beckley notes that China’s economy is growing at a progressively lower annual rate down from 20 percent in 1970 to 6.1 percent in 2019.  Along with many Western economists, Beckly warns that statistics released by China are always suspect. He cites approximately $6 trillion in non-productive investments in real estate and in government-owned or managed enterprises.

Based on the response of the U.S. to declining growth in the late 1800s, and in turn-of-the-19th century Tzarist Russia, Beckley anticipates that China will continue to manipulate international rules, exert pressure where it is capable and use conflict with the U.S. to divert distrust and disillusionment among the middle class at home. Viewed from this perspective, it is evident that China will not respond to short-term trade pressure exerted by the current Administration although some concessions might be made in the interest of expediency.

China is playing a long game even beyond their 2025 “Made in China Initiative” that will be characterized by assertiveness and international expansion. President Xi has warned of a potential Soviet-style collapse. As a counter measure Beijing has enhanced security, intensified propaganda and has employed xenophobia to generate patriotism.

Beckley advocates cooperation with potential allies including those in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership that could, subject to appropriate conditions, be expanded to include China. The U.S. must not only dominate in the military sphere but technological dominance should prevail allowing some Chinese investment in U.S. companies and immigration to our shores. Beckley anticipates that Chinese power will mellow in response to a sense of security. The U.S. must “contain China with a balance of deterrents, reassurance and limitation of damage”. Confrontation is unlikely to achieve any degree of resolution of the structural issues that are the source of conflict in U.S.-China relations.


Scientific and Agricultural Organizations Support Reversal of Relocation of ERS and NIFA


A statement issued by five prominent associations representing farmers’ organizations and agricultural economists, deprecates the decision to move the Economic Research Service (ERS) and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) from Washington, D.C. to Kansas City. The joint statement reads: The harm done to American farmers, rural America and the agricultural economy at the hands of USDA is deeply troubling, but not irreversible. Many House and Senate appropriators have for months stood in strong, unified and outright opposition to the relocation. We stand firmly with that position in support of farmers, consumers and science-based agricultural research made possible by the hard-working employees at ERS and NIFA. All individuals and organizations who rely on agricultural research and economics – and support good government – should join us.

At a hearing on October 21st, Deputy Undersecretary Scott Hutchins was allegedly defensive regarding the consequences of the relocation of both ERS and NIFA. It is understood that 75 percent of staff have left the two agencies. The result will be delays in submission of reports and an interruption in awarding research grants to universities.

EGG-NEWS has consistently questioned the justification for the relocation that was obviously expected to be disruptive and prejudicial to the work of both agencies since key personnel were patently disinclined to move from Washington, D.C. Stating that the intent was to encourage economists and scientists at these agencies to be closer to their constituencies is fallacious. In effect the relocation deprived ERS and NIFA personnel of contact with colleagues at other government agencies, academic institutions and think-tanks in the Washington, D.C. area.

Observers have speculated that the relocation was intended to encourage the departure of economists and researchers engaged in studies considered politically sensitive and unacceptable to the Administration.

The decision to relocate is not irreversible and both logic and experience suggest that the exercise should be reversed. Under a subsequent Administration, it is certain that personnel will be transferred back from Kansas City to Washington, D.C. involving further disruption, expense and stress. No agency can afford to lose 75 percent of its personnel including the most experienced thinkers and achievers without diminishing service in the short term. The relocation will create profound deficiencies in future planning and decisions on a national level.


Hype Over Cell-Cultured Meat and Space Experiment


Media reports recently report on an experiment conducted on the international space station to demonstrate the feasibility of synthesizing cell-cultured meat under zero gravity. According to the October 8th press release, the activity represented a collaboration between 3D Bioprinting Solutions of Russia, Aleph Farms of Israel and both Meal Source Technology and Finless Foods based in the U.S.

A small quantity of muscle tissue was apparently synthesized. In commenting on this achievement Didier Toubia, CEO of Aleph Farms stated “This joint experiment mounts a significant first step towards achieving our vision to ensure food security for generations to come while preserving our natural resources”.

The exercise can be regarded as little more than a publicity endeavor with no meaningful practical or commercial application, certainly for the intermediate future.

To be viable, cell-cultured meat must be available at a competitive price compared with alternative vegetable and animal-sourced protein. This objective according to promoters of the technology is always just five years away, but please keep those investments coming in as we are almost there.


2020 RFS Dispute Settled


Establishing the quantity of ethanol to be incorporated into gasoline degenerates into an annual conflict between the biofuels industry and oil refiners with lobbying from both sides and pressure by corn-state legislators. After delays the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the USDA announced the Administration policy for 2020.  The EPA has called for public comment on the proposed 2020 renewable volumes standard and the biomass-based diesel volumes for 2021. 


EPA has determined that 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol will be blended into gasoline in 2020. The EPA will also address the issue of small refiner exemptions based on protests over the total of 54 SREs awarded since 2017.  Following the decision to allow year-round sales of E15, the EPA will issue new rules relating to labeling and will “remove other barriers” to the sales of E15.  The USDA will consider infrastructure projects to facilitate higher biofuel blends.  This probably implies subsidy of pumps which can blend a range of ethanol levels. 


The joint announcement by EPA and USDA was applauded by legislators representing corn states including Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Governor Pete Ricketts (R-NE).


Establishing the renewable fuels standard was established under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and extended under the Energy and Dependence and Security Act of 2007.


Over the past 15 years, the U.S. has become energy independent. This invalidates the initial and principal objective of the RFS to reduce reliance on potentially antagonistic nations for energy. The RFS has become a consumer-funded support program for corn growers and the ethanol industry to the detriment of livestock production and ultimately all who eat and drive.


Corn Farmers Receive Satisfaction Over RFS and Waivers


The concerns expressed by leaders of 23 State corn-growers associations were relieved by the Administration decision on the 2020 RFS and future policy on Small Refinery Waivers. A letter addressed to the President requested that the Administration cease issuing waivers to small refineries. They claim that 85 waivers during the current Administration removed demand for four billion gallons of ethanol to be blended into gasoline. At present, ethanol plants in seven states have been mothballed resulting in the loss of jobs in rural areas and decreased demand for 300 million bushels of corn.

The plight of the ethanol industry has less to do with waivers than it has with overcapacity. The RFS was established with assumptions that have been proven to be unrealistic The ethanol industry expanded injudiciously to supply an exaggerated but mandated potential market. Exports have not compensated for the disparity between production and domestic demand. Even with mandates and government support, market forces are in effect setting volumes and prices.

Corn-based ethanol is neither sustainable nor beneficial to the environment and inclusion (dilution?) in gasoline reduces mileage. Given the relative independence of the U.S. based on shale oil and gas, the entire question of diverting food to fuel should be reconsidered either by this or a subsequent Administration. Corn farmers have benefited from the biofuels program at the expense of livestock producers and consumers.

Unfortunately the RFS has is now regarded as an established right for corn growers and ethanol producers. The political considerations regarding the RFS have become a “third rail” with successive administrations disinclined to impose restrictions. Ultimately conomic forces will prevail and the recent decision on the RFS suggests that the gravy train is slowing down and may even end up in the terminus.


Limited U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement


The signing of a limited trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan provided only partial compensation for the damage caused by the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. In a less than complimentary editorial in the September 26th edition of The Wall Street Journal, the editor refers to self-inflicted damage on trade and the loss of opportunities to export agricultural commodities. Between April and July this year, compared to the corresponding periods in 2016 and 2017, U.S. farm exports to Japan increased by less than 5.8 percent. In contrast, agricultural imports from Europe were higher by 15.9 percent, from Mexico 27.6 percent and from New Zealand 16.9 percent. Exports of U.S. pork to Japan declined by one percent in contrast to exports from Europe that increased by 17 percent.

In terms of the Agreement signed during the United Nations General Assembly, U.S. farmers have comparable access to markets in Japan as for the E.U. and nations belonging to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Agreement. Approximately 90 percent of U.S. agricultural and food products will be duty-free. In return, the U.S. will reduce or eliminate tariffs on machine tools, musical instruments and bicycles.

The agreement did however exclude motor vehicles although in a joint statement the President and the Prime Minister noted that the agreement will be based on mutual trust. Both parties will refrain from taking measures against the spirit of the deal. Clearly Japan expects the U.S. not to impose punitive tariffs on vehicles and parts.

The Wall Street Journal editorial notes that the slimmed-down agreement that does not have to be ratified by Congress will place the U.S. in an inferior position on trade compared to participation in the TPP. An added detriment to the unilateral withdrawal of the U.S. in 2017 is the fact that the TPP was weakened and could have served as a stronger competitor to China in the efforts of that Nation to dominate trade in Asia.


Alaska Senator Continues to Oppose AquaBounty™ Salmon


In a blatant display of protectionism for a local industry, Senator Lisa Murkowski intends to continue blocking the commercial release of AquaBounty ™ GM Atlantic Salmon. The company that developed the fast-growing strain has spent two decades to obtain FDA approval which was granted in 2015. The Agency with oversight over food declared that the fish is safe to eat and as nutritious as wild Atlantic salmon. The GM variety grows at twice the rate of wild salmon with obvious benefits in terms of feed conversion efficiency and hence sustainability.

Following the FDA determination, Senator Murkowski used her position to impose an additional delaying hurdle requiring an evaluation of consumer-labeling. Now that this issue has been resolved, Senator Murkowski intends to add a rider to a bill to require a “label comprehension study” normally applied to pharmaceutical products but not to food. Further delay would necessitate destruction of salmon elvers already placed in an approved land-locked aquaculture facility in Indiana.

The commercialization of AquaBounty™ Atlantic Salmon would in no way compete with Pacific coast salmon species since collectively natural fisheries cannot supply demand. It is estimated that a high proportion of Atlantic Salmon consumed in the U.S. is imported from Norway and Chile.

From a livestock perspective, the National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard enacted in 2016 should prevail in this case and Aqua Bounty should be allowed to produce and market their product having complied with all relevant regulations imposed by the FDA, in addition to federal and state agencies.

Apart from the parochial political aspect of opposition to AquaBounty™, a dangerous precedent would be created if Senator Murkowski were to be successful in her efforts to preserve the perceived interests of her constituents. Future GM developments that could potentially enhance food production would be delayed or even prevented by the actions of a single legislator in acting in defiance of a national standard.


Decision by China to Allow Imported U.S. Pork Motivated by Inflation and Stability Concerns


EGG-NEWS is entirely supportive of the contention by Capital Economics that authorities in China will not be able to control African swine fever even in the intermediate term. Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China economist for the consulting group, noted “The Chinese government measures to contain the fallout from the disease will only have a marginal impact.”

 It is fair to reiterate that the infection has become endemic with virtually all provinces reporting cases. It is also evident that the ability to monitor the progress of the disease is beyond the capacity of provincial governments. The reality that a high proportion of pork is derived from small family-operated units devoid of biosecurity and that the structure of the industry requires transport of large numbers of animals over the considerable distances has added to dissemination of the virus. Control of the disease will only be initiated when a reliable, effective and safe vaccine becomes available and the industry restructures to produce from biosecure complexes. These improvements have yet to be accomplished.

The shortage of pork will have an impact on consumer prices and the national level of inflation. Consumers in China consume 65 percent of their meat as pork. With at least a third and possibly as much as 45 percent of the hog population culled or dead as a result of infection, prices will soar as frozen pork inventory is depleted. August prices of pork were up 47 percent year-on-year according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Consumer prices rose 2.3 percent in August suggesting a 2019 inflation rate of over 3 percent.

Government initiatives to provide subsidies to restock farms are akin to pouring water into a bucket with a large hole. Restoration of production will take at least four years given that the breeding herd has been severely impacted. The central government realizing that they are faced with a serious long-term problem have eliminated the tariff on U.S. pork. This is more an initiative to ensure supplies through the October celebrations marking the Centennial of the founding of the Communist Party of China and an attempt to restrain inflation.

Pitched as concession to the U.S. in anticipation of Ministerial-level trade negotiations in October, the move by China appears self-serving, given the realization that there is a wide disparity between available pork and domestic demand. The advent of African swine fever is an obvious boon for the domestic chicken industry in China and for exporters of animal protein in the E.U., Brazil and now potentially the U.S.


Environmental Impact of the NC Timber Industry


The editorial on August 21st dealt with sustainability and specifically the fallacy of burning wood chips to generate electricity.  Further to the information provided in this posting, a subsequent report by the Center for a Sustainable Economy characterizes the North Carolina timber industry as a “climate catastrophe”.  Approximately 5 percent of North Carolina covering 2.6 million acres is a carbon sequestration dead zone.  This is due to clear cutting and removal of timber for wood chip production and for sawmills in the state.  If plantations are harvested it takes approximately 13 years to begin offsetting atmospheric carbon dioxide through photosynthesis.  Pine plantations store less carbon than native forest currently dominated by hardwoods in North Carolina.

Findings by the Center for a Sustainable Economy concerning release of carbon dioxide by the logging industry are paralleled in Oregon.  In that state logging is the most carbon-intensive sector.  In North Carolina electric generation and transportation are more carbon intensive.

The Center for a Sustainable Economy advocates application of acceptable forestry practices as an alternative to clear cutting including restoration and a lower intensity of logging.  Unfortunately the economic impact of the timber industry and its political clout mitigate against any meaningful improvement in the intermediate future.



The Trade War With China – Who is Winning?


CNBC Morning Squawk on September 9th presented data from official sources in China indicating the country reported a trade surplus of $35 billion in August compared to $45 billion in July. Exports to the U.S. were 16 percent lower year-on-year in August but up from a 6.5 percent decline in July.  Imports from the U.S. to China were 22.4 percent lower in August 2019 compared to August 2018, reflecting the impact of the ban on agricultural products effective on August 4th together with previous high retaliatory tariffs.  Overall exports to China declined by 5.6 percent in August 2019 compared to the corresponding month in 2018 reflecting a drop in domestic consumption.


A principal of objective of the trade action taken against China, initiated in 2017 was to reduce the negative balance of trade.  For the first eight months of 2019 the difference between imports and exports favored China by $196 billion with the August deficit attaining $27 billion.


On Friday September 6th the Central Bank of China cut reserve requirements for banks for the seventh time since the beginning of 2018 to allow institutions to extend more loans to companies.  Additional support measures are anticipated to prevent an economic slowdown according to CNBC. Zhang Yi an economist at a financial management company stated, “Exports are still weak even the face of substantial Yuan currency depreciation, indicating that sluggish external demand is the most important factor affecting exports this year.”


Larry Kudlow, White House Economic Advisor also stated on Friday September 6th that the U.S. anticipates “near term” results from bilateral talks scheduled for October.  He indicated that the trade conflict could take years to resolve.  This is a retraction from the earlier Administration claim that “trade wars were easy to win and of short duration”.  Prospects of even a limited near-term resumption of agricultural imports are unlikely unless both nations make concessions with regard to recently announced additional tariffs. Resolution of the trade dispute is critical for the financial wellbeing of the agricultural sector as the 2019 harvest approaches


 The more basic conflicts relating to structural issues including intellectual property and coercive trade practices that were the justification for initiating the trade conflict by the U.S. in 2017 are unlikely to be resolved in October if at all. These practices are critical to achieving the “Made in China 2025” initiative essential for continued growth in GDP. We will never conclude a Grand Agreement over a dinner regardless of the deal making skills of the Negotiator-in-Chief. We could make steady but slow progress through diplomacy, application of tactical economic pressure and cooperation with our allies with whom we have converging interests with respect to China.


Hepatitis A Emerges as a Significant Food-Borne Disease


According to the Center for Disease Control, a total of 31 states have reported close to 35,000 confirmed cases of hepatitis A in 2019.  This infection results in a high proportion of hospital admissions.  Although the infection is common among the homeless and intravenous drug users, approximately 30 percent of cases involve foodborne infection. Numerous cases have been diagnosed, in which food handlers were implicated.


Infected food handlers are responsible for transmission of the virus to diners through the fecal-oral route requiring deficiencies in personal hygiene by shedders in direct contact with food and utensils.


Since hepatitis A can be prevented by available vaccination, all food handlers and workers in restaurants including QSRs should receive preventive vaccination as a condition of employment. 


Philippines Suffering from Widespread Dengue Fever Outbreak


During 2019, close to 150,000 confirmed cases of Dengue fever have been reported in the Philippines with 622 fatalities.  The Health Ministry of the Philippines has declared an emergency and the Nation is concentrating all public health resources to combating the infection.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease and in the absence of a safe and effective vaccine, control measures are confined to suppressing mosquito populations.

 Recently EGG-NEWS reported on opposition to deploying genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes to control malaria.  Any activity that unjustly disparages GM on principle or restricts the use of a viable and scientifically proven control method for a serious disease such as malaria or Dengue is strongly deprecated.  Opponents of GM are not taking into account the effect of disease and mortality caused by mosquitoes responsible for numerous widespread infections on four continents.  Given unseasonal rains and increased temperatures, Gulf States are vulnerable to Arborviral encephalitides, Dengue, Zika and Chikunguna fever, all of which are vector borne.


Dangers from Maximum Security Biohazard Laboratories


A recent audit by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention carried out on the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) disclosed deficiencies in biocontainment and decontamination of waste-water.


The military laboratory “studies” selected agents responsible for Ebola, plague, anthrax and other lethal diseases that have potential biological warfare application.  Deficiencies in containment represent a hazard to both workers at institutes and the population surrounding these establishments. 


EGG-NEWS has previously documented failures in biocontainment at major establishments including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a Russian bio-warfare laboratory in Ekaterinberg, Pirbright Laboratory in the U.K. and various universities and institutes in Africa, the EU and the U.S.

Rotation of employees without training and re-training, deviations from accepted standard operating procedures attributable to familiarity and the failure to maintain equipment can all contribute to release of pathogens.


Those responsible for planning, implementing and managing the new National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility equipped with BL-4 laboratories should be cognizant of risks and consequences of a release of either a zoonotic or animal-specific pathogen and should exercise the utmost safety.


USSEC Efforts to Promote Soybean Exports to China Face Obstacles


Despite the deteriorating trade relationship between the U.S. and China, USSEC is justifiably still maintaining promotional efforts in China as an investment for the future. The Council recently reported on promotional activities directed to soybean food processors.

Obstacles to exports obviously include the now blanket ban on imports of all U.S. agricultural products, competition from local varieties suited to production of tofu and yuba and a strict embargo on GM-origin soybeans.

It is questioned whether contacts with the Jiangnan University School of Food Science and Technology and major food companies in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province will in fact generate goodwill. Providing technology to Chinese institutions and business entities, many of which are state-managed is simply transfer of know-how ultimately to the detriment of the U.S.

During the 1990’s the American Soybean Association promoted exports of soybeans to India, China and other nations by providing live-bird and hog technology to develop domestic livestock industries. This resulted in increased demand for soybeans frequently supplied by Brazil and Argentine. The result of seminars, farm and plant visits and advice especially on processing contributed to a rise in domestic production reducing the market for U.S. exports and in some cases even generating competition for export markets supplied by U.S. producers. The USSEC should recognize that U.S. hog, broiler and egg producers are their main market and that the long-term interests of users of soybeans should be considered.

The 1990s ASA model of promoting domestic production to stimulate exports of U.S. soybeans may have generated a short-term benefit, but providing technology especially in the area of post-harvest poultry processing, as requested by China, has been contrary to the interests of our domestic poultry industry.

At the end of the day, soybeans are a commodity, despite the attempts by USSEC to promote superior nutritional value. Irrespective of claims to the contrary, landed price is the principal motivation to purchase corn, wheat and oilseeds. Sustainability, is a justified attribute and is worthy of promotion but probably is not considered in the purchase decision. Quality depends on scrutiny by USDA personnel at export terminals and is probably equivalent to soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine given international standards. Major purchases by potential importers are based on landed price and availability and attempts at product differentiation of what is essentially a commodity may be akin to pushing a piece of string. Either way it plays well in Peoria, since the expenditure on promotion, personnel and logistics is derived from check-off funds relying on the goodwill of farmers.


Environmental Groups Opposing GM Mosquitoes to Control Malaria



According to an insightful essay by Richard Tren in the August 1st edition of The Wall Street Journal a group of forty environment organizations are opposing the Target Malaria Project funded in part by the Gates Foundation.  The initiative involves release of genetically modified male mosquitoes to reduce the incidence rate or even eliminate malaria in affected locations.

Previously EGG-NEWS commented on misguided opposition to field trials on the Florida Keys to eliminate GM mosquitoes capable of carrying Dengue, Chikungunya and other arborviral diseases.


Advances in genetic technology including CRISPR-cas9 to produce beneficial crops displaying pest and drought resistance and nutritional enhancement will be required to feed burgeoning populations by the middle of this Century. Applying GM to insect vectors could save lives and enhance the quality of life in nations afflicted with malaria. With progressive climate change areas in temperate latitudes hitherto free of tropical diseases may become endemic areas requiring the application of emerging and unconventional control technologies.


A petition signed by close to 150 Nobel laureates has demand that environmentalists including Greenpeace cease opposition to genetic modification which offer benefits to developing populations impacted by malnutrition and disease. Blind opposition to technical advances including insertion and deletion of genes is strongly condemned as are deceptive, false and distorted claims perpetrated by antagonists of GM.


Central Government in China Pushes Pork Production


In the face of ascending mortality from African swine fever (ASF) that to date may have depleted the national herd by one third, government authorities in China are adopting a traditional centrally-planned approach to increasing production. At issue is the reality that pork prices are climbing, reflecting an imbalance between supply and demand. It is understood that frozen pork in storage has been depleted and with tariffs imposed on U.S. imports, prices are over 30 percent higher than in July 2018. To prevent consumer disaffection, provincial and municipal authorities are now subject to obligatory production quotas consistent with traditional Communist practice. Measures to support production include grants to consolidate processing and subsidizing hog producers. Issuing orders may be easier than ensuring compliance given that the infection is not controlled and that a low standard of biosecurity prevails in small family-operated farms.

The disease will not be controlled for at least two years even if an effective vaccine is introduced since the hog industry requires radical restructuring. Eradication in the foreseeable future does not appear to be a reality. Previous postings on EGG-NEWS and CHICK-NEWS commented on the epidemiology of African swine fever in both Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia and the problems associated with control and the impact on supply. (Enter African swine fever in the SEARCH block to review previous postings)

Evidence that ASF has severely impacted supply is the response to the order to increase production with a reported five percent increase in the share price of the WH Group on the Hang Seng Exchange on Friday, July 26th.

The action by the central government and provincial authorities are at least recognition of the problem represented by ASF despite an egregious lack of transparency over prevalence and failure to acknowledge the wide geographic extent of the infection.