On June 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2024, a projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026.
The 2025 projection for broiler production is for 47,500 million lbs. (21.591 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.9 lbs. (46.3 kg.) for 2025, up 0.9 percent from 2024. Exports will attain 6,588 million lbs. (2.995 million metric tons), 2.0 percent below the previous year.
The 2026 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 48,100 million lbs. (21.864 million metric tons) up 1.1 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 102.6 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.2 percent higher compared to 2025 at 6,670 million lbs. (3.031 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2024
(actual)
|
2025
(projection)
|
2026
(forecast)
|
Difference
2024 to 2025
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,994
|
47,580
|
48,100
|
+1.2
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
101.0
|
101.9
|
102.6
|
+0.9
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
6,724
|
6,588
|
6,670
|
-2.0
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
14.3
|
13.8
|
13.9
|
-3.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,121
|
4,806
|
5,080
|
-6.2
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
13.8
|
13.0
|
13.5
|
-5.8
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
486
|
405
|
435
|
-16.7
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.5
|
8.4
|
8.6
|
-11.6
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18th 2025
The June USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2025 including annual production of 4,806 million lbs. (2.185 million metric tons), down 6.2 percent from 2024. Consumption in 2025 is projected to be 13.0 lbs. (5.9 kg.) per capita, down proportionately by 5.8 percent from the previous year. Export volume will attain 405 million lbs. (184,090 metric tons) in 2025. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2025 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, reduced losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.
The 2026 forecast for turkey production is 5,080 million lbs. (2.309 million metric tons) up an optimistic 5.7 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up an unsubstantiated 3.8 percent to 13.5 lbs. (6.1 kg). Exports will be 19.7 percent higher than in 2025 to 435 million lbs. (197,728 metric tons) equivalent to 8.6 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations