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Forecast for the 2013 Corn Crop

03/19/2013

Uncertainty exists as to weather conditions which will determine size of the 2013 corn crop.  At the recent USDA Annual Outlook Conference, Dr. Brad Rippey an agricultural meteorologist claimed that the 2012 drought was a “once in a lifetime occurrence”. If in fact global warming is a reality, the events of 2012 may well reoccur before 2099.  We have had far too many “once in a century” floods, tornados and hurricanes during the past decade.  Commenting on future rainfall based on past patterns might well be analogous to determining the performance of the stock market based on previous trends.  Sometimes a correlation with past patterns may be accepted if there is some definable basis such as transition from an El Nino to a La Nina. These events clearly follow cyclic patterns which can be used to predict rainfall in broad areas of both hemispheres.