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Crop Progress

10/07/2019

Status of 2019 Corn and Soybean Crops

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on October 7th documented continued slow progress in both corn and soybeans after a delayed start to planting due to flooding. The deficit with respect to 2018 is evident in the proportion of the corn and soy crops harvested. The delay in planting is expected to negatively impact yields as documented in the September WASDE Report accessible under the STATISTICS tab. The October WASDE is scheduled for October 10th. Current crop condition for both soybeans and corn are highly variable as to time of planting and generally inferior to the 2018 harvest as tabulated below. High topsoil moisture levels were evident in comparison with the corresponding weeks in 2018 until the past week. CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2019 harvest in October.

WEEK ENDING

Crop

September 29th

October 7th

5-Year Average

Corn Dough %

Corn Dented %

Corn Mature %

Corn Harvested %

100

88

43

11

100

93

58

15

100

99

85

27

       

Soybeans Dropping leaves %

Soybeans Harvested %

55

7

72

14

87

34

       

Corn will mature 25 days after the early dent stage implying harvest commencing late September and expected to extend through late October. Yield is reduced if corn fields are exposed to frost. Cold temperature before harvest contributes to higher moisture content requiring drying and susceptibility to Fusarium leading to DON contamination.

Crop Condition

V. Poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Corn 2019

Corn 2018

4

4

11

8

29

20

45

47

11

21

Soybeans 2019

Soybeans 2018

4

3

11

7

32

22

45

49

8

19

 

Parameter

V. Short

Short

Adequate

Surplus

Topsoil moisture: Past Week

11

16

53

20

Past Year

6

13

63

18

Subsoil moisture: Past Week

10

18

57

15

Past Year

8

17

63

12

 

The USDA Grain Stocks Report released September 30th documented old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1 st 2019 totaling 2.11 billion bushels, down one percent from September 1st 2018. Of the total stocks, 753 million bushels (34 percent) are stored on farms, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.36 billion bushels, are down 10 percent from a year ago. June to August 2019 data indicated disappearance of 3.09 billion bushels, compared with 3.16 billion bushels during the same period last year reflecting combined domestic and export demand.

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1st 2019 totaled 913 million bushels, up 108 percent from September 1st 2018. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 265 million bushels (29.0 percent), up 162 percent from a year ago. This suggests that farmers are holding old crop soybeans in anticipation of a settlement of the trade dispute with China expected to result in a sharp upturn in price. This is unlikely given displacement of U.S. supplies by Brazil and Argentine and the decreased requirement of China due to ASF. Token orders for soybeans amounting to four percent of projected 2018-2019 exports have been placed by China in recent weeks. Off-farm stocks, at 648 million bushels, are up 92 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June to August 2019 totaled 870 million bushels, up 11 percent from the same period a year earlier.