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Updated USDA Projections for U.S. Egg Production

02/18/2020

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on February 18th 2020 updating the previous January 16th 2020 report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 3.3 and but retained at 2.1 percent respectively compared to 2018 data. The discrepancy between production and consumption represents over-supply and hence lower prices. The benchmark New York price was accordingly reduced by 28.9 percent in unit value from 2019. Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to forecast volume of production. The latest data is reflected in the table below:-

 

Parameter

2015

(actual)

2016

(actual)

2017

(actual)

2018 2019 Difference % 2020

(actual) (revised) 2018 to 2019 (projection)

EGGS        

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,437

7,755

7,952 8,214 +3.3% 8,330

Consumption (eggs per capita)

255.8*

272.0

279.9

284.0 290.1 +2.1% 295.1

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

138 98 -28.9% 95.5

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –February 18th 2020

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.