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Updated USDA Projections for U.S. Egg Production

03/18/2020

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on March 16th 2020 updating the previous February 18th 2020 report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 3.9 and 2.9 percent respectively compared to 2018 data. The discrepancy between production and consumption represents over-supply and hence lower prices. The projection for 2020 is shown in the table below. The projected benchmark New York unit price for 2020 was increased 12.8 percent from 2018. Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, that was impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to volume of production in 2019. The latest data is reflected in the table below:-

 

Parameter

2015

(actual)

2016

(actual)

2017

(actual)

2018
(actual)

2019
(revised)

2020
(projection)

% Difference
2019-2020

EGGS

       

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,437

7,755

7,952

8,265

8,370

+1.3

Consumption (eggs per capita)

255.8*

272.0

279.9

284.0

292.1

295.7

+1.2

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

138

94

106

+12.8

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –March 16th 2020

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.