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Updated USDA Projections for U.S. Egg Production

05/18/2020

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on May 18th 2020 revising the previous April 15th 2020 report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2020 were both increased by 0.6 percent compared to 2019 data. The projected benchmark New York unit price for 2020 was increased 36.0 percent from 2019 due to the effect of COVID-19 panic buying in March.

 

Revised production data for 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to volume of production in 2019. The USDA forecast to be revised in June will provide greater clarity on reopening of the economy. May 2020 data is shown in the table below:-

 

Parameter

2015

(actual)

2016

(revised1)

2017

(revised)

2018 2019 2020 % Difference

(revised) (revised) (projection) 2019-2020

 

EGGS

 

 

 

 

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,509

7,811

8,042 8,265 8,312 +0.6

Consumption (eggs per capita)

255.8*

275.3

282.1

287.8 292.9 294.7 +0.6

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

138 94 130 +38.3

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –May 18th 2020

Note 1. Production data for 2016 through 2018 were revised from the April 2020 report without explanation by the USDA-ERS.

 

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.