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Probability of a La Nina Event Emerging

06/27/2020

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recorded a decline in water temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  Accordingly, models indicate the chance of a La Nina increasing from “neutral” to “watch”.

 

During a La Nina event tradewinds intensify across the Pacific from east to west.  Climatic changes include:

  • Above average rains in Australia and Southeast Asia
  • Drier weather in the south of the U.S. and cooler temperatures and heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest due to a shift in the jet stream
  • Drought in Southern Brazil depressing soybean yields

Developing La Nina Event

 

The U.S. National Weather Service considers that there is an equal chance of neutrality between a La Nina and an El Nino event.  Water temperatures along the Pacific coastline will indicate the direction in which the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is developing. 

 

Subscribers are referred to previous post on climastic cycles in the Pacific. Enter El Nino in the SEARCH feature.