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Updated USDA Projections for U.S. Egg Production

09/18/2020

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on September 17th 2020 revising the previous August18th 2020 report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption for 2020 were raised by 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent respectively compared to the August report consistent with current trends. The September projection for 2020 production and per capita consumption were revised downward to reflect reductions of 2.8 and 2.9 percent respectively from 2019. The discrepancy between production and consumption will be partly offset by the substantial but transitory rise in price in March and April. The 2020 benchmark New York unit price for 2020 was increased 10.6 percent from 2019, a 5.7 percent downgrade from the August projection by USDA. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to volume of production in 2019. Subsequent USDA forecasts will provide greater clarity on reopening of the economy that is still depressed with high unemployment associated with COVID restrictions.

 

For 2021 the USDA forecast production to attain 8,165 million dozen, up 1.6 percent from 2020 production with a disproportionate 1.1 percent increase in per capita consumption to 287.4 eggs that will be reflected in lower unit realization.

September 2020 data is shown in the table below:-

Parameter

2017

 (actual)

2018

 (actual)

2019

 (revised)

2020

2021 % Difference (projection) (forecast) 2020-2021

EGGS

Production (m. dozen)

7,811

8,042

 8,265

 8,033

8,165 +1.6

Consumption (eggs per capita)

282.1

287.8

 292.8

 284.2

287.4 +1.1

New York price (c/doz.)

101

138

94

115

110 -4.3

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –September 17th 2020

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.