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USDA-WASDE FORECAST #618 November 9th 2021

11/09/2021

OVERVIEW

The November WASDE documented the 2021growing season with no changes in harvest acreage of either corn or soybeans. The USDA ERS revised the projected ending stocks of corn, soybeans and soybean meal based on crop conditions and the harvest in progress. The corn acreage to be harvested is currently estimated at 85.1 million acres. Soybeans will be harvested from 86.4 million acres.

 

The November 2021 WASDE firm estimate of corn yield was raised 0.3 percent to 177.0 bushels per acre, based on completion of 85 percent of the corn harvest by November 7th, (175.8 bushels per acre in 2020). The estimate of soybean yield was lowered 0.6 percent to 51.2 bushels per acre based on completion of 87 percent of the harvest by November 7th, (50.7 bushels per acre in 2020). Final yield values will be adjusted subsequently based on harvest data.

 

The November 2021 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was lowered by 0.5 percent to 1,493 million bushels despite a slightly larger harvest. Greater supply and lower exports, resulted in the projection of ending stock for soybeans being raised 6.3 percent to 340 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with fluctuation in exports. China has placed orders in accordance with their needs and central Government policy rather than compliance with the Phase-One trade agreement of February 2020. The November WASDE projection retained the price of corn at $5.45 per bushel. Soybeans were reduced 2.0 percent to 1,210 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was unchanged at $325 per short ton.

 

It is accepted that projections are based on the reality that China sharply increased purchases of commodities during the recently concluded market year partly to cover low stock caused by drought, and COVID-related disruptions in imports during the first quarter of 2020. China booked substantial orders for corn and soybeans from September 2020 onwards for the 2020-2021market year but is moderating orders now for the current market year. Reports on volumes of commodities exported to China and other nations are included in weekly editions of CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS as USDA data is released.

 

CORN

The corn harvest for 2021 projected in the November 2021 WASDE Report #618 is 15,062 million bushels up 0.3 percent from the October report consistent with a 0.3 percent higher yield. The projected 2021 harvest can be compared to 14,507 million bushels in 2020 and is projected to be 0.6 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from the October report at 5,650 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was raised 1.0 percent to 5,250 million bushels consistent with higher domestic demand for E-10 and other blends following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. Projected corn exports were held at 2,500 million bushels. Ending stocks were lowered by 0.5 percent to 1,493 million bushels.

 

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was reduced unchanged at 545 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on November 9th after release of the November WASDE the CME quotation for December corn was at 550 cents per bushel and up 6.7 percent from the quotation on November 9th and currently 1.8 percent above the USDA projection.

 

 NOVEMBER 2021 WASDE #618 PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2021 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area

85.1 m acres

(93.3 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 91.8% of acres harvested)

Yield

177.0 bushels per acre

(was 176.5 bushels per acre in the September WASDE.)

Beginning Stocks

1,236 m. bushels

Production

15,062 m. bushels

Imports

25 m. bushels

Total Supply

16,323 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

5,650 m. bushels

34.5%

Food & Seed

1,430 m bushels

 8.8%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,250 m. bushels

32.2%

Domestic Use

12,330 m. bushels

75.5%

Exports

2,500 m. bushels

15.3%

Ending Stocks

1,493 m. bushels

 9.2%

Ending Stock-to-domestic use proportion

12.1%

(Was 12.2 % in the October 2021 WASDE Report)

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: $5.45 per bushel. (Unchanged from the October 2021 WASDE Report)

 

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL

USDA decreased the projection for the 2021 soybean crop to 4,425 million bushels based on a revised November WASDE projection of a yield of 51.2 bushels per acre. With respect to use parameters, crushings were retained at 2,190 million tons. Projected exports were lowered by 40 million bushels from October to 2,050 million bushels, consistent with lower orders from China during the 2021-2022 market year. This is attributed to their current requirements for imported ingredient for animal feed and also to lock-in prices on a static or declining market rather than through any sense of obligation to comply with the February 2020 Phase-One Trade Agreement. From early October 2020 to the present, prices increased in response to bookings for the 2020-2021market year. Prior to 2018 our largest trading partner for agricultural commodities imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested. Ending stocks were raised 8.4 percent to 340 million bushels up from 320 million bushels in the October 2021 WASDE.

 

The USDA projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2021 harvest was lowered 25 cents per bushel to 1,210 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on November 9th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for November 2021 delivery was 1,201 cents per bushel, up 6 cents or 0.5 percent compared to the October 12th 2021 quotation for November delivery and 0.8 percent below the November USDA-WASDE projection for 2021.

 

NOVEMBER 2021 WASDE #618 PROJECTION FOR THE 2021 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

Harvest Area

86.4 m acres

(87.2 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 99.1% of planted acreage)

Yield

51.2 bushels per acre

(Was 51.5 bushels per acre in the October WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

256 m. bushels

(Was 175 million bushels in the September WASDE)

Production

4,425 m. bushels

Imports

15 m. bushels

Total Supply

4,696 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crushings

2,190 m. bushels

46.6%

Exports

2,050 m. bushels

44.7%

Seed

102 m. bushels

 2.2%

Residual

15 m. bushels

0.3%

Total Use

4,356 m. bushels

93.8%

Ending Stocks

340 m. bushels

7.2%

(Up 20 million bushels from the Oct. 2021 WASDE)

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

 

Average Farm Price: 1,210 cents per bushel (Down 25 cents per bushel from the October 2021 WASDE Report)

 

The projected supply of soybean meal was increased by 0.4 percent to 52.5 million tons based on higher production. Domestic use was raised to 37.9 million tons. Exports were unchanged at 14.20 million tons. The USDA lowered the projected ex plant price of soybean meal by $35 per ton from September to $325 per ton. At 14H00 on November 9th the CME quotation for December 2021 delivery of soybean meal was $343, up $31 per ton or 9.9 percent compared to the October 12th CME quotation and 6.8 percent above the October USDA-WASDE projection for 2021.

 

NOVEMBER 2021 WASDE #618 PROJECTION OF SOYABEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

Beginning Stocks

0.341 m. tons

Production

51.709 m. tons

Imports

0.450 m. tons

Total Supply

52.500 m. tons

Domestic Use

37.900 m. tons

Exports

14.200 m. tons

Total Use

52.100 m. tons

Ending Stocks

0.400 m. tons

  1. = million

 

Average Price ex plant:$325 (Unchanged from October 2021 WASDE Reports)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

 

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest increasing production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

 

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.44 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

 

CORN AND COARSE GRAINS

Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 5.1 million tons higher to 1,499.0 million. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Argentina, the E.U., and several African countries more than offset a decline for the Philippines. For Argentina, production is raised mostly reflecting increased area expectations for late-planted corn. Corn production in the EU is higher based on increases for Poland, Romania, and France. Foreign barley production is lowered based on declines for Turkey, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.

 

Corn exports are raised for Argentina and the EU but lowered for Bangladesh. Corn imports are raised for Iran and Thailand but lowered for Nigeria and Turkey. For 2020/21, corn exports for Argentina are raised but reduced for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on shipments observed through October. For 2021/22, barley imports are raised for China and Turkey but reduced for Saudi Arabia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for China, Brazil, Burkina Faso, and Angola. Global corn ending stocks, at 304.4 million tons, are up 2.7 million.

 

OILSEEDS

Global 2021/22 soybean production is reduced 1.1 million tons to 384.0 million as lower production for the United States and Argentina is partly offset by higher Indian production. Argentina’s production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 49.5 million on a lower harvested area. Production for India is raised 0.9 million tons to 11.9 million based on data from the Soybean Processors Association of India. Global soybean exports are lowered 1.0 million tons to 172.1 million, with lower exports for Argentina and the United States partly offset by higher exports for Brazil and India. With lower exports, China’s imports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 100 million. Global soybean stocks are reduced 0.8 million tons to 103.8 million as lower stocks for Argentina and China are partly offset by higher U.S. stocks

 

Updated World production and use of total grains and oilseeds is summarized for the 2020/2021 season taking into account Northern and Southern Hemisphere production:-

 

Factor: billion m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oilseeds

Output

1.499*

628

Supply

1.820

742

World Trade

251

195

Use

1.491

527

Ending Stocks

330

115

*Values rounded to million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)