The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production for 2022 on May 18th 2022, revising the previous April 15th 2022 report quantifying the impact of HPAI. The latest revision of production for 2022 was lowered by 1.1 percent to 7,688 million dozen from the April report and was 3.6 percent lower than in 2021. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 will be 274.8, down 4.5 eggs (2.0 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised to 194 cents per dozen, 63.1 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices during the first quarter and again reflecting losses of close to 30 million hens from the end of February through mid-May.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy. Egg-liquid consumption will be influenced by reduced availability and higher cost that will once more drive demand for alternatives to ‘real eggs’ as in 2015. Flock size will be influenced by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement, rate of conversion to alternative housing systems and the cost of ingredients that will influence margins. Unknown factors such as the eventual extent of avian influenza, the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine, export volume and recovery of the economy will all influence production and marketing of shell eggs and products.

USDA projected egg production in 2023 will attain 8,170 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 289 eggs.

May 2022 data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released May 18th 2022

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