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Egg Projection July 2022

07/18/2022

Updated July USDA Projection for 2022 U.S. Egg Production and Consumption.

 

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production for 2022 on July 18th 2022, with a predictable increase in production, consumption and price from the previous June 16th 2022 report given the impact of the HPAI epornitic. The latest revision of production for 2022 was raised 0.7 percent to 7,744 million dozen but 2.8 percent lower than in 2021. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 was raised 0.9 percent to 277.3 but down 3.2 eggs (1.1 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised to 210 cents per dozen. This was 76.5 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices during the first quarter and again a prolonged escalation in price reflecting losses of 31.5 million laying hens from the end of February through the first week in June.

 

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy that was impacted by a 9.1 percent rate of inflation in June. Egg-liquid consumption will be influenced by reduced availability and higher cost that will once more drive demand for alternatives to ‘real eggs’ as in 2015. Flock size may be limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement, rate of conversion to alternative housing systems and the cost of ingredients that will influence margins. Unknown factors influencing price will include the eventual extent of the avian influenza epornitic that appears to have ended, the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine, export volume of eggs and persistence in demand.

 

USDA projected egg production in 2023 was unchanged from the June Report at 8,170 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 289 eggs.

 

July 2022 data is shown in the table below:-

Parameter

2018

(actual)

2019

(actual)

2020

(actual)

2021

(actual)

2022

(forecast)

% Difference

2021-2022

Production (m. dozen)

8,042

8,265

8,066

7,971

7,744

-2.8

Consumption (eggs per capita)

287.8

293.6

285.5

280.5

277.3

-1.1

New York price (c/doz.)

138

 94

112

119

210

+76.5

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released July 18th 2022

 

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices, exports and related industry statistics.