According to press reports, 165 ships have left the Ukraine ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Uzhnyi since the deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey was concluded.  Destinations include Africa, Asia and Europe.  Based on the loads carried by ten vessels that departed on September 18th it is calculated that 1.5 million metric tons of commodities have been consigned to date, below the target of 3 million tons per month.

Clearing inventory stored in ports is critical before the 2023-2022 harvest that is estimated at 67 million metric tons of grains and oil seeds.  Although some product will be shipped westward by rail, Ukraine is strongly dependent on Black Sea export routes.

President Putin of the Russian Federation has threatened to withdraw from the agreement when it is renegotiated at the end of October. He will use Ukraine exports as a bargaining chip to demand relaxation of sanctions against his nation.  He claimed that Russia was duped into the agreement on the basis of providing necessary grain to support nations in Africa that are dependent on imports of wheat to prevent famine.  Putin claims that Ukraine shipped the majority of stored commodities exported under the agreement to Middle East and European markets.

Should the agreement be cancelled, free passage through the Black Sea for agricultural commodities will require the navies of the EU and the U.S. to become involved. As with a previous situation in the Straits of Hormuz free passage for bulk tankers was established with escort through defined corridors.  Naval mines laid by both Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea represent a challenge to shipping with one vessel having been severely damaged by a mine that drifted from its mooring.