Share via Email


* Email To: (Separate multiple addresses with a semicolon)
* Your Name:
* Email From: (Your IP Address is 18.207.136.189)
* Email Subject: (personalize your message)


Email Content:

Egg Projection

11/17/2022

Updated November USDA Projection for 2022 U.S. Egg Production and Consumption.

 

On November 17th the USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production for 2022 with a projection for 2023. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous October 18th report.

 

Egg production for 2022 was lowered 0.1 percent from the October report to 7,737 million dozen This will be 2.9 percent lower than in 2021 due to depopulation of approximately 38 million hens infected with HPAI from early spring extending through November. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2022 was reduced 0.9 percent from October to 277.6 but down 2.9 eggs (0.9 percent) from 2021. The average 2022 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 7.4 percent to 260 cents per dozen. This was 119.4 percent higher than in 2021 attributed to unseasonal high prices from the end of March to date.

 

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the effect of HPAI together with the recovery of the post-COVID economy that was impacted by a 7.7 percent rate of inflation (with 12.4 percent for food at home) in October compared to the corresponding month in 2021. Egg-liquid consumption will be influenced by reduced availability and higher cost that will once more drive demand for alternatives to ‘real eggs’ as in 2015. Flock size may be limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement, rate of conversion to alternative housing systems and the cost of ingredients that will influence margins. Unknown factors affect price will include the eventual extent of the avian influenza epornitic that may undergo a resurgence during the fourth quarter, the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by U.S. corn and soybean yields, events in Ukraine, export volume of eggs and the persistence of current high domestic consumer demand.

 

USDA projected egg production in 2023 was almost unchanged from the October Report to 8,195 million dozen with a per capita consumption of 291.5 eggs.

 

October 2022 data is shown in the table below:-

 

Parameter

2019

(actual)

2020

(actual)

2021

(actual)

2022

(update)

2023

(projection)

% Difference

2021-2022

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Production (m. dozen)

8,265

8,066

7,971

7,737

8,195

-2.9

Consumption (eggs per capita)

293.6

285.5

280.5

277.6

291.5

-1.0

New York price (c/doz.)

 94

112

119

260

184

+119.4

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released November 17th 2022

 

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices, exports and related industry statistics.