Updated August 2023 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption.

On August 17^th the USDA Economic Research Service issued updated values for egg production during 2022 with a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024. Production, consumption and prices were only slightly revised from the previous July 18^th 2022 report.

Projected egg production for 2023 was reduced 0.5 percent from the July Report to 7,933 million dozen This will be 2.0 percent higher than in 2022 due to replacement of a proportion of the hens depleted due to HPAI over the period extending from early spring through mid-December 2022. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2023 was 0.5 percent lower than in the July report to 281.2 eggs but up 2.2 eggs (0.8 percent) from 2022. The average 2023 benchmark New York bulk unit price was unchanged at 182 cents per dozen. This was 35.5 percent lower than in 2022 attributed to a comparison with unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 2^nd Quarter of 2023.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery of consumption in an economy that is impacted by moderating inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded a rise of 3.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index in July with a 4.9 percent increase in the food component for the month. Eggs represented a standout among foods despite retail price for conventional shell eggs that were up 55.4 percent from (pre-HPAI) February 2022 through February 2023. The 2023 Midwest in-carton price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th attaining $1.15 on August 14^th This was below the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest run cost at 85 cents per dozen plus processing and packaging at 57 cents per dozen amounting to $1.42 cents per dozen.

Restoration in flock size is proceeding slowly, limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement and the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. The cost of ingredients will influence margins and may result in cessation of production by some small-scale producers as negative margins prevail through summer. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of possible losses in the fall due to a reemergence of avian influenza; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by events in Ukraine; easing drought in the Midwest; increasing exports of eggs and products and the duration of current higher domestic consumer demand.

The forecast for 2024 includes a production of 8,205 million dozen, up 3.4 percent from 2023. Consumption will attain 289.4 per capita up a speculative 8.2 eggs or 2.9 percent above the projection for 2023. This will naturally depress prices with the NY. Large price dropping by 38.0 cents per dozen or 26.3 percent from the average for 2023.

In 2022 egg exports as shell and products combined attained 226.5 million dozen shell-equivalents, or 4.3 percent of production, down 42.2 percent from 392.0 million dozen or 4.9 percent of production in 2021. During 2022 egg imports, some in shell form but predominantly products attained 25.9 million dozen shell-equivalents, up 42.8 percent from 14.9 million dozen in 2021. The forecast for 2023 at 26.0 million dozen is almost unchanged from 2022. For the first six months of 2023 shell egg exports fell 7.0 million dozen, down 18.3 percent compared to the corresponding six months in 2022 attaining 45.2 million dozen. Egg products were up 28.5 percent to 17,028 metric tons compared to the same period in 2022.

August 2023 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released August 17^th 2023

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