Status of 2023 Corn and Soybean Crops

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on September 11^th confirmed moderate advances in soybean and corn development, both slightly ahead of the five-year average.

Relief of drought conditions in the Midwest has stalled and is reflected in deterioration in crop condition this past week reflecting heat stress and drought over past weeks. The quality of both corn and soybeans compared to the 2022 crop for the corresponding week, is quantified in the table below. The combined highest categories of “good” and “excellent” for corn amounted to 52 percent this past week unchanged from last week and compared to 56 percent for the corresponding week in 2022. Soybean condition for the two highest categories was 52 percent this past week compared to the previous week at 53 percent and compared to 56 percent for the corresponding week in 2022. As of September 5^th, 49 percent of corn acreage (was 45 percent last week) and 43 percent of soybean acreage (was 40 percent last week) were located in drought-affected regions.

Based on the sum of the “adequate” and “surplus” categories, surface and subsoil moisture levels were lower compared to the corresponding weeks in 2022. For the past week topsoil and subsoil moisture values for 2023 were both 42 percent for the two highest categories. These levels were numerically below the previous week with values of 42 percent and 43 percent respectively. The most recent values for surface and subsoil moisture can be compared with values of 51 percent and 49 percent respectively for the corresponding week in 2022. It is too early to determine whether transition to an El Nino will bring relief in coming weeks or will complicate the harvest with unseasonal rainfall.

Based on surveys, the USDA released projected production and inventory data on June 30^th in the Acreage Report and the Grain Stocks Report, retrievable under the STATISTICS tab. The effect of the ongoing transition to an El Nino event will become apparent by the end of October but will not materially affect crop condition for the 2023 harvest.  

Reference is made to the September 12^th WASDE Report #640 and the weekly Commodity, Economy and Energy Report in this edition, documenting acreage to be harvested, yields and ending stocks. The Pro Farmer crop tour released on August 25^th projected an average corn yield for the 2023 harvest of 172 bu. per acre, down 1.0 percent from the 173.8 bu. per acre documented in the September WASDE. Soybean yield was projected at 49.7 bu. per acre, 0.8 percent below the 50.1 bu. per acre documented in the September WASDE. The USDA incorporated the results of the NASS September survey of farmers to forecast yields for 2023 corn and soybean crops that were included in the Crop Production Report  and September WASDE released on September 12^th.

WEEK ENDING   Crop Sept. 3rd 2023 Sept 10th 2023 5-Year Average Corn dough (%) 93 97 96 Corn dented (%) 67 82 78 Corn mature (%) 18 34 28 Corn harvested(%) 0 5 4         Soybean Status 18 States       Soybeans setting pods (%) 100 100 100 Soybeans dropping leaves (%) 16 31 25
Crop Condition V. Poor  Poor Fair Good Excellent Corn 2023 (%) 6 12 30 43 9 Corn 2022 (%) 9 11 27 41 12 Soybeans 2023 (%) 6 12 30 43 9 Soybeans 2022 (%) 5 10 29 45 11
Parameter 48 States V. Short Short Adequate Surplus   Topsoil moisture: Past Week 25 33 40 2 Past Year 18 31 48 3 Subsoil moisture: Past Week 24 34 40 2 Past Year 19 32 47 2

EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2023 harvest in November.