OVERVIEW

The USDA projected values for the production of corn and soybeans in the November 9^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #642 reflecting 2023 new-crop values. These were revised given the season and were based on harvest data, actual area planted, and recent U.S. weather, influenced by a transition to an El Nino, carry-forward levels from 2022, export projections and ending stocks.

With respect to the World situation it is evident that the 2023 harvest of all crops in Ukraine, a major World supplier, will be reduced by at least one third compared with pre-invasion values. The situation in Ukraine has no short-term prospect for resolution.

The November 9^th 2023 WASDE report projected corn and soybean harvest data for the 2023 season. Corn will be harvested from 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the October WASDE report. Soybeans will be harvested from 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the October WASDE report.

The November 2023 WASDE yield value for the new corn crop was raised 1.1 percent from the October report to 174.9 bushels per acre from 173.0 bushels per acre due to the effect of the transitory severe drought in June and inadequate rainfall thereafter in many areas. By comparison yield was 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022. The estimate of soybean yield was raised 0.6 percent to 49.9 bushels per acre from 49.6 bushels per acre in the October WASDE report and compared to 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022.

The November 2023 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was predicted to attain 2,156 million bushels, up 2.1 percent from 2,111 million bushels. The USDA forecast an ending stock of soybeans at 245 million bushels up 11.4 percent from the previous month.

The November 2023 WASDE lowered the ex-farm price of corn by 10 cents per bushel to 485 cents per bushel for the new crop. The projected price for soybeans was unchanged at 1,290 cents per bushel from the October WASDE. Soybean Meal was unchanged at $380 per ton.

Projections included in the November 2023 WASDE report reflect the most recent estimates of commodity production in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from hostilities in Ukraine with occupation of 20 percent of the Nation’s land area by the Russian Federation and following extensive destruction of infrastructure. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages. Exports from Ukraine will be restricted by the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative followed by destruction of Black Sea and Danube delta port installations and obstruction of shipping in the central Black Sea by the Russian Federation.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. corn during the current market year despite drought and taking into effect relaxation of COVID restrictions on consumer and demand.

Reports on volumes of commodities exported are included in weekly editions of EGG-NEWS, derived from published USDA-FAS data.

CORN

Based on increased yield and previous acreage projections the corn harvest for 2023 was estimated at 15,234 million bushels compared to 13,730 million bushels in 2022. The U.S. 2023 harvest is projected to be 0.6 percent above the previous record harvest of 15,148 million bushels in 2016. The “Feed and Residual” category was raised 0.9 percent from October to 5,650 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” Category was unchanged at 5,300 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends. Gasoline consumption is restrained by prevailing high prices, general inflation and changes in commuting patterns persisting from COVID restrictions. Projected corn exports were raised 2.5 percent from October to 2,075 million bushels, based on recent orders, the volume of projected shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and drought in Argentine. Ending stocks in the November WASDE report were raised 2.1 percent to 2,156 million bushels.

The forecast USDA farm price for corn in the November 9^th WASDE report covering the new crop was lowered 2.0 percent to 485 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on November 9^th after the noon release of the November WASDE the CME quotation for December delivery was 468 cents per bushel, down 5.6 percent from the quotation of October 12^th for October delivery and down 3.6 percent from the November USDA projection.

NOVEMBER 2023 WASDE #642 Projections For The 2023 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 485 cents per bushel. (Down 10 cents per bushel from the October WASDE Report reflecting the 2023 crop)

SOYBEANS

Based on actual acreage planted and harvest data to date the USDA projected the 2023 soybean crop to be 4,129 million bushels with an estimated yield of 49.9 bushels per acre from 82.8 million acres harvested. Crush volume was unchanged from the October WASDE report at 2,300 million bushels with projected exports held at 1,755 million bushels. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 245 million bushels up 11.4 percent from the October WASDE report.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current 2023-2024 market year. This is attributed to a presumption of lower requirements for animal feed despite relaxation of previous strict COVID restrictions. In reality traders in China are obligated to order on a stable or declining market unless faced with shortages. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA November 2023 projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2023 harvest was unchanged from the October WASDE report at 1,290 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on November 9^th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for November 2023 delivery was 1,329 cents per bushel, up 3.0 percent compared to the October 12^th quotation for October delivery.

NOVEMBER 2023 WASDE #642 PROJECTION FOR THE 2023 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,290 cents per bushel (Unchanged from the October 2023 WASDE Report)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2023 crop will be 54.15 million tons, down less than 0.1 percent from the October WASDE and consistent with a constant crush of 2,300 million bushels of soybeans. Production is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was unchanged at 39.4 million tons. Exports were held at 15.3 million tons. The USDA retained the ex plant price of soybean meal at $380 per ton as an average for the 2023-2024 season based on supply to demand considerations reflected in an unchanged ending stock of 400,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

At 14H00 on October 12^th the CME quotation for December 2023 delivery of soybean meal was $392 per ton, down 3.7 percent compared to the September 12^th CME quotation and $112 per ton or 3.1 percent higher than the October WASDE projection of $380 per ton.

NOVEMBER 2023 WASDE #642 PROJECTION OF SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

(Quantities in thousand short tons)Average Price ex plant:$380 per ton (Unchanged from the August 2023 WASDE Report reflecting the 2023 season)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest stable feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1,499.3 million. This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine, Russia, Burma, and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised as higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and India are partly offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Turkey”.

“Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for the United States, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Corn imports are raised for Canada, Egypt, Mexico, the EU, and Saudi Arabia but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Paraguay, and China that are partly offset by a decline for Iran. Global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million”.

OILSEEDS:

 “The global 2023/24 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks, higher production, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced 1.6 million tons, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil. China’s beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021/22 and 2022/23 and higher crush for 2022/23. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022/23 crop of 158 million tons due to higher-than-expected use to date”.

“Global 2023/24 soybean production is raised 0.9 million tons to 400.4 million, mainly on higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for China and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons as higher stocks for Brazil and the United States are more than offset by lower stocks for China”.

*Values rounded to billion metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)