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Egg Projection

02/17/2024

Updated February 2024 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

 

On February 14th 2024 the USDA Economic Research Service issued updated values for egg production during 2022 with a projection for 2023 and a forecast for 2024. Production, consumption and prices were only slightly revised from the previous January 19th 2024 report.

 

Projected egg production for 2023 was reduced by three million dozen from the January 2024 Report to 7,887 million dozen This will be 1.4 percent higher than in 2022 due to progressive replacement of the 44 million hens depleted due to HPAI over the period extending from early spring through mid-December 2022. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2023 will be 0.1 percent lower than in the December report to 280.9 eggs but up one egg (0.4 percent) from 2022. The projected average 2023 benchmark New York bulk unit price was unchanged from the January report at 192 cents per dozen. This was 31.9 percent lower than in 2022 attributed to a comparison with unseasonal high prices from the end of March through the 2nd Quarter of 2023.

 

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is impacted by declining inflation. The 2023 Midwest in-carton wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8th attaining $2.92 on February 15th This was above the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run December 2023 cost of 76.8 cents per dozen plus processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.37 cents per dozen delivered to a distribution center.

 

Restoration in flock size after HPAI flock depletions in 2022 progressed at a rate of approximately 0.5 million per week but was limited by the availability of pullet chicks for replacement and in some companies the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 13.0 million layers depleted during the 4th quarter of 2023 representing 4.0 percent of the nominal producing flock of 325 million hens, mainly on complexes averaging over one million hens. The cost of ingredients will influence margins and may result in cessation of production by some small-scale producers that run out of working capital since financial losses were incurred through summer up to mid-fall. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses during the spring of 2024 due to a predicted reemergence of avian influenza; the supply and cost of ingredients as influenced by world and national availability; exports of eggs and products and the intensity and persistence of domestic consumer demand.

 

The forecast for 2024 includes a production of 8,000 million dozen, up 1.4 percent from 2023. Consumption will attain 283.7 per capita, up a realistic 2.8 eggs or 1.0 percent above the projection for 2023. This will naturally depress prices with the NY-Large price dropping by 9.9 cents per dozen or 5.1 percent from the average for 2023.

 

In 2023 egg exports as shell and products combined attained 5,161 million dozen shell-equivalents, or 2.2 percent of production. During 2022 egg imports as a result of HPAI depopulation, some in shell form but predominantly products, attained 25.9 million dozen shell-equivalents, up 42.8 percent from 14.9 million dozen and 26.4 percent from 2021.

 

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022.

 

February 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

Parameter

2020

(actual)

2021

(actual)

2022

(actual)

HPAI

2023

(projection)

2024

(forecast)

% Difference

2022-2023

             

Production (m. dozen)

8,070

8,031

7,781

7,887

8,000

+1.0

Consumption (eggs per capita)

279.0

282.5

279.0

280.9

283.7

+0.7

New York price c/doz.)

112

119

282

192

183

-31.9

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released February 14th 2024

 

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices, exports and related industry statistics.