Share via Email


* Email To: (Separate multiple addresses with a semicolon)
* Your Name:
* Email From: (Your IP Address is 44.213.60.33)
* Email Subject: (personalize your message)


Email Content:

Egg Projection

06/19/2024

Updated June 2024 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

 

On June 18th 2024 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2023 with a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025. Production, consumption and prices were slightly revised from the previous May 2024 report.

 

Projected egg production for 2024 was lowered to 7,787 million dozen This will be 1.0 percent lower than in 2023 despite progressive replacement of the 44 million hens depleted due to HPAI over the period extending from early spring through mid-December 2022. Losses caused by HPAI depletion during the last quarter of 2023 reduced the annual total. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2024 will be 275.6 eggs down 1.3 percent from 2023. The projected average 2024 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised to 230.9 cents per dozen.

 

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation. The 2023 Midwest in-carton national wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8th 2023. Price was restored during late February 2024 and settled at $2.15 per dozen Midwest graded Large on May 31st 2024, higher than normal for the post-Easter period. This was above the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run May 2024 cost of 77.9 cents per dozen for caged white Large, plus a provision for processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.38 cents per dozen delivered to a distribution center.

 

Restoration in flock size after HPAI flock depletions in 2022 progressed at a rate of approximately 0.5 million per week but placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and in some companies the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 13.0 million layers depleted during the 4th quarter of 2023 representing 4.0 percent of the nominal producing flock of 325 million hens, mainly on complexes averaging over one million hens. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of losses during the remainder of 2024 due to a reemergence of avian influenza. Approximately 8.5 million hens were lost to HPAI during April and 5.7 million in May. Exports of eggs and products at approximately two percent of total production will not materially affect the domestic price.

 

The USDA forecast for 2025 includes production of 8,150 million dozen, up 4.7 percent from 2023. Consumption of 286.6 per capita, would be a speculative 11.0 egg increase over 2024 (4.0 percent) and presumably relating to a 70.9 cent per dozen reduction in the NY-Large benchmark price to $1.60 per dozen from the 2024 average for packed eggs of $2.31 per dozen.

 

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022. For the first quarter of 2024 shell egg exports were up 7.8 percent in volume to 21.8 million dozen, but down 28.3 percent in value to $43.4 million compared to the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was down 31.1 percent to $1.99 per dozen.

 

June 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

Parameter

2021

(actual)

2022*

(actual)

2023*

(actual)

2024*

(projection)

2025

(forecast)

% Difference

2024-2025

             

Production (million dozen)

8,031

7,825

7,864

7,787

8,150

+4.7

Consumption (eggs per capita)

282.5

280.5

279.3

275.6

286.6

+4.0

New York price (c/doz.)

119

282

192

231

160

-30.7

*Data influenced by HPAI losses

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18th 2024

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices, exports and related industry statistics.