USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, August 28^th 2024.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.1 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 28.5 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on August 26^th at $3.00 per dozen was approximately $1.70 per dozen above the 3-year average of $1.30 per dozen and up $1.75 from the corresponding week in 2023 at $1.25 per dozen. This past week shell egg inventory was up 9.0 percent, following a fall of 2.4 percent during the previous week. Small fluctuation in inventory with large incremental weekly increases in price during mid-to late summer suggests higher margins for producers through the current quarter despite replacement of depleted flocks. Higher prices compared to 2023 are attributed to losses due to HPAI depletion reducing the national flock by 20 million hens and with sustained demand.
• Although there are weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Close to 13 million hens were lost during the 4^th Quarter of 2023 that have not yet been completely replaced. During April 2024 almost 8.4 million hens were depopulated with an additional 5.7 million during May and 3.0 million in July.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. There is a presumption that buyers held back on orders in the face of high prices to “bend” the trajectory of the benchmark price to their advantage. This is evidenced by the short-term increase in inventory despite reduced supply albeit with softening demand.  The cessation of incident cases of HPAI has probably provided buyers with the confidence to hold orders and run down stock before an approaching holiday weekend. Stock levels will depend on constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline through mid-September. Discounters are holding prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are still highly competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, but highlighted as a factor in food price inflation.
• Total industry inventory was up by 6.3 percent overall this past week at 1.48 million cases with a concurrent 3.9 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 10.3 percent fall during the preceding processing week.
• It is now apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important over the short term in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and in the pipeline as determined by weekly orders are probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock, especially into and after a holiday weekend.
• The number and extent of possible HPAI outbreaks during coming months  cannot be projected but the industry has moved into a quiescent period. Over 190 confirmed dairy herds in thirteen states is a cause for concern. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic free-living birds together with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the current spring and future fall waves of HPAI. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances.
• The current relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On August 28^th the stated total flock of 306.7 million, was up by 0.7 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets scheduled to attain production. Given the latest figures for depopulation it is estimated that the total flock is at least 20 million hens lower than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022. The loss of 3 million hens in July does not appear to be reflected in the latest release of data. Figures released on August 21^st may overestimate flock size especially if more recent losses are not included.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was down 4.3 percent to $2.76 per dozen. Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 6.8 percent to  $2.68 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs usually with a lag of one to two weeks.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on August 26^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.1 percent from last week to $4.28 per dozen. Large size was up 8.1 percent to $4.26 per dozen. Mediums were up a noteworthy 28.5 percent to  $2.62 per dozen delivered to DCs. It is emphasized that these prices are for the previous week. 

Despite pullets commencing production, the stock of Medium size declined by 7.7 percent but the inventory of Small size fell by 5.8 percent over the past week suggesting pullet flocks are maturing with implications for prices during mid- to late September.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 75.7 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for July 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 57 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response) and now realistically 60 cents per dozen.

Currently producers of generic shell eggs should be operating with strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The August 23^rd edition of the USDA Egg Markets Overview confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 10.1 percent to $4.03 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $3.94 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $4.19 per dozen.

Flock Size 

The loss of 8.6 million hens in April and 5.7 million in May is now reflected in the most recent weekly data. There is a question concerning the 3.0 million depopulated in July. Any delay in posting accurate updated data should be avoided given the importance of weekly flock numbers to pricing. Accurate and current values for both the producing and total flock are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting August 28^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 1.4 million to 299.8 million suggesting that the rate of depletion and depopulation is now lower than the placement of started pullets. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion and an additional loss of approximately 17 million hens year-to-date. Some flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and flock depletion delayed subject to availability of housing. Based on inventory level and prices, the population of hens producing table eggs and breaking stock should now be in balance or slightly below mid-summer demand by consumers. Industrial and food service off-take is increasing, attaining pre-COVID levels. Prices have risen since early August and will plateau at unusually high seasonal levels compared to an anticipated seasonal decline.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on August 28^th 2024 was 0.8 million lower at 305.9 million hens including a higher than normal population of second-cycle birds and those in molt.  The difference between total and producing flocks is 6.1 million this week. The losses in mid-March and April have now belatedly been taken into account but now perhaps depopulation in late June and early July. Data for the past three weeks presumes that molted hens are resuming production. Given the season and the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 20 million fewer hens in the total flock that now include cases of HPAI through late June. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 5.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on August 26^th 2024 was 2.325 million lbs. (1,057 metric tons), down 1.5 percent from previous week and 1.8 percent down from the 2.368 million lbs. on August 1^st 2024. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of March.

The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on August 23^rd 2024 documented a total stock of 28.8 million pounds (13,093 metric tons) of frozen egg products on July 31^st 2024. This quantity was down 2.0 percent from the July 31^st 2023 value of 29.4 million pounds. July 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 4.1 percent from the previous month ending June 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, increased exports or their combination. Compared to July 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 6.2 percent to 2.37 million lbs. from July 31^st 2024. Compared to July 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 10.3 percent to 869,000 lbs. on July 31^st 2024.

A total of 88.7 percent (25.56 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (40.3 percent) and “Unclassified” (48.4 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting inventory by the USDA as it appears that they have the makings of a giant scrambled egg!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective August 26^th 2024 was up 6.3 percent over the previous week. Inventory over the past week followed a fall of 4.1 percent the previous week confirming either a sharp 10 percent fall in demand by consumers in late-August or buyers holding back on replenishing stocks in DCs and stores. Combined with breaking stock, the total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms is now at a rounded level of 1.48 million cases rounded (1.4 million last week; Up 88,600 cases). The U.S. population of laying hens at this time is influenced by:-

• Losses following outbreaks of HPAI with the depopulation of over 13.0 million hens during the fourth quarter of 2023 and 18.1 million hens since April 1^st including 5.7 million in May and 3.0 million in July 2024. Losses are offset by approximately 22 million pullets transferred each month over the first half of 2024
• The population unaffected by HPAI or fires.
• Flocks retained after molting with an anticipated increase in this category as influenced by prevailing wholesale egg prices, and indirectly responding to flock depopulation from HPAI.
• Started pullets from chick placements during early April 2024. Going forward, younger hens will assume a larger proportion of the national flock as more flocks are placed compensating for the flocks depleted due to HPAI.

Four USDA Regions reported higher stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was up a substantial 25.2 percent from the previous week to 421,400 cases and with the Southwest accounting for 95 percent  of the increase .
• The Southeast Region was down 2.1 percent to 241,300 cases
• The South Central Region was up 2.1 percent to 192,400 cases
• The Northeast Region was down 3.6 percent to 168,700 cases
• The Southwest Region was up a substantial 21.1 percent to 128,100 cases.

• The Northwest Region was up 0.2 percent to 56,300 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,484,300 cases (1,395,700 cases last week), up 6.3 percent, of which 81.4 percent were shell eggs (79.4 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 3.9 percent to 276,100 cases. Shell-egg inventory was up 9.0 percent attaining 1,208,200 cases. These changes are a function of regional shell-egg demand with buyers apparently taking advantage of the industry benchmark price discovery system. Reoccurrence of HPAI affecting egg-production and turkey flocks in July influenced buyers who were previously unconcerned over short-term availability in May through June. This pressure has disappeared with a cessation in incident cases over 4 weeks.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was down 4.3 percent but checks were up 6.8 percent following the sharp increase for these categories last week. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 63.7 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 8.1 percent) compared to disproportionately lower prices for breaking stock and checks in past weeks. The differential of 63.7 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI. The sharp increase in price demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products (inventory down 10.3 percent this past week) confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On August 26^th 2024 the inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 386,100 cases (up 7.6 percent from last week at 358,700 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, up 9.4 percent to 29,700 cases. (was down 10.7% to 27,100 cases)

• Certified Organic, down 9.5 percent to 66,100 cases. (was up 4.6% to 73,100 cases)
• Cage-Free category, up 12.3 percent to 290,300 cases. (was down 5.0% to 258,500 cases)

Existing and proposed individual state legislation mandating sale of only cage-free eggs will support most of the completed and in-progress transition from cages but significant additional re-housing will not be completed by the beginning of 2025, now four months away and clearly never, as projected previously by most industry observers. The constitutional status of Proposition #12 was confirmed by SCOTUS in a May 11^th 2023 decision with specific reference to the dormant Commerce Clause relating to interstate trade. Many retail chains are ‘renEGGing’ on or extending their time commitments to achieve an acceptable transition to cage-free eggs despite coercion by animal welfare groups.

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

A comprehensive structured market research project on cage-free eggs has provided an indication of consumer willingness to pay for this attribute*.

The industry requires a study on other aspects including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and 2022-2024 HPAI epornitics including the current wave of outbreaks.

*Caputo,V. et al The Transition to Cage-Free Eggs. February 2023

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, for August 23^rd 2024 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices

Large, in cartons generic white:         $0.78*     Down 52.7 percent  ($1.65)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown:     $3.46      Up 3.0 percent         ($3.36) 

* unrealistic price not representative of the market

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons                             $3.95      Up 10.3 percent        ($3.58)                         

Large C-F, California in Cartons:      $5.09      Up 7.2 percent          ($4.40)

National loose, (FOB dock):              $3.00       Down 7.7 percent     ($3.25)

NYC in cartons to retailer:                 $4.43      Up 6.5 percent          ($4.16)

Graded loose truck lots                       $3.00      Down 7.7 percent     ($3.25)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported August 23^rd   for the previous week.    

             Midwest                                $3.94      Up 10.4 percent         ($3.57)

             Northeast                              $3.99       Up 10.2 percent         ($3.62)

             Southeast                              $4.08       Up 10.0 percent         ($3.71)

             South Central                        $4.10       Up 9.9 percent           ($3.73)

             Combined                            $4.03       Up 10.1 percent        ($3.66)

WEEKLY ADVERTISED PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES W/E August 29^th

USDA Certified Organic, Brown, Large:                        $4.35        ($4.51)  

            Cage-Free Brown, Large:                                    $3.99        ($2.50)

Omega-3 Enriched Specialty, White, Large:       $3.07        ($3.16)

Generic White, Large Grade A                            $  ?           ($1.99)

The advertised price for Large white grade A as featured for the week ending August 29 was not posted as there were presumably no promotions of the category. The market has evidenced continued fluctuation in advertised retail promotional prices. Current supply is slightly above demand reflecting the variable number of features over the past month. The increase in inventory held by the industry as reported by the USDA is considered to be due to buyers holding orders in the face of higher prices despite the approaching Labor Day weekend. Producers continue to divert shell eggs from breaking to the higher-priced shell market. Integrated companies and packers continued to deliver to DCs.

The USDA benchmark-advertised retail price for certified organic for the week was $4.35 per dozen, (309 stores, few promotions), down $0.16 per dozen or 3.5 percent from the USDA price of  $4.51 per dozen posted for 449 stores last week. The USDA advertised price for cage-free brown was $3.99 per dozen, up $1.49 or 59.6 percent from the USDA revised price of $2.50 per dozen last week (112 stores). The price differential between USDA organic and cage-free brown amounting to $0.36 per dozen will result in higher demand for certified organic over cage-free brown eggs. Week-over-week single digit fluctuations expressed as a percentage can be expected in the stock of specialty and organic eggs based on the small base of these categories.

Cage-free brown at $3.38 per dozen were $0.14 per dozen  (4.0 percent) lower than cage-free white at $3.52 per dozen (531 stores).

Certified organic was promoted this past week at 10.3 percent of the total, despite a lower inventory, (last week 3.2 percent of features). Omega-3 enriched comprised 61.1 percent of features with a higher inventory (25.9 percent last week). Cage-free comprised 23.1 percent of features with a higher stock (39.0 percent last week). Vegetarian-fed was featured this past week representing 5.6 percent of features. Generics were not promoted this past week.

USDA Cage-Free Data

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on August 1^st 2024, the number of certified organic hens in July was down 0.9 percent from June 2024 to 19.6 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined with depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in July 2024 was down 0.9 percent from June 2024 to 100.7 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in July 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production =  19.6 million   (18.8 million in Q2 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production                          = 100.7 million (101.0 million in Q2 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock                                                        = 120.3 million  (119.8 million in Q2 2024).

This total value represents 36.9 percent (June 37.1 percent) of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 40.1 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 300 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

From April 1^st through July losses due to HPAI have included 7.4 million cage free and at least 1.9 million organic hens.

The accuracy of individual monthly values was previously questioned given a history of either constant numbers or a sharp change in successive months as documented over the past two years. The values in the May 1^st Cage-Free report reflect depopulation during April. It is anticipated that the July release will reflect a realistic number of producing hens housed cage-free during June 2024. Precise quarterly reports would be more suitable for the industry in planning expansion and allocation of capital than inaccurate monthly values.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending August 24^th 2024 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on August 28^th 2024 was down 1.6 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,360,096 cases, (1,382,500 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 52.4 percent with some diversion to higher-priced shell markets by uncommitted producers. (52.0 percent processed in-line for the previous week). The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.8 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.7 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock inventory was down 3.9 percent this past week to 276,100 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2023 in-line breakers processed 52.6percent of eggs broken.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting July 2024, yield from 7,026,034 cases  (5,622,463 cases in June) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and diversion to shell egg sales over the period June 30^th 2024 through August 3^rd 2024.  Edible yield was 41.2 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages:  liquid whole, 61.2; white, 23.8; yolk, 12.0; dried, 2.9.

All eggs broken during 2023 attained 69.78 million cases, 8.4 percent less than 2022. Eggs broken in 2024 to date amounted to 48.23 million cases, 5.1 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty following the ending of COVID support, moderate inflation, high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was down 4.3 percent percent this past week to $2.76 per dozen with an extreme range of $2.70 to $2.81 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on August 26^th. The price of checks was up 6.8 percent this past week at an average of $2.68 per dozen over the most frequent range of $2.67 to $2.69 per dozen. The market for breaking stock follows prices for shell eggs with a lag of about two weeks unless pronounced up or down swings occur.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated August 26^th 2024 confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 8.1 percent and Medium size was up 28.5 percent from the previous week. A 9.0 percent higher shell egg inventory combined with an increase in benchmark price, confirms that the market is operating with adequate supply relative to decreased orders despite acceptable late summer demand. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The August 26^th 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 7.0 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

         EL. $4.18 ($3.90), (estimated by proportion):  L. $4.11 ($3.84): M. $2.50 ($2.03)

The August 26^th 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, (with the previous week in parentheses) was up 7.0 percent from last week, partly due to depopulation of a third of the laying hens in the state during the 4^th quarter of 2023 but offset by replacement pullets albeit with lower availability of eggs from Midwest and Southwest supplying states.

         EL. $5.43 ($5.08); L. $5.37 ($5.02); M. $3.39 ($2.91)                                                        

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator  

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on August 28^th 2024 was down 11.1 points from the last weekly report to +4.8 with a 6.3 percent increase in total inventory and a 9.0 percent higher shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

The USDA Monthly Report covering July 2024 production including text, tables, data and prices and the Q4 FY 2024 financial results for Cal-Maine Foods can be accessed under the STATISTICS tab.

Egg Products

Again the USDA did not release complete data for egg products for the past week. The USDA has not released a report on dried egg inventory since March 13^th 2020 due to inability to obtain data from producers, and will not issue reports for the immediate future. This situation is unacceptable given the extent of trading and the resources of the USDA.

Dried Egg

The stated range in prices for dried whole egg and yolk products in $ per lb. was last released on August 9^th 2024 and is the most recent set of data. Values over past months illustrate the trend in prices influenced by HPAI depopulation and subsequent repopulation:-

Frozen Egg

The USDA failed to post the range in prices for frozen egg products for the past week. Prices in cents per lb. are shown for yolks on August 23^rd 2024:-

In the absence of data it is not possible to assess demand for categories of egg products by the manufacturing, food service and export sectors. Since trading is occurring USDA should be able to ascertain and post prices.

July averages (June): Whole. $1.63, ($1.55); Whites, $1.24, ($1.33); Yolks, $2.37, ($2.37).

Liquid Egg

Values for Whites and Yolks covering certified truckload quantities have been released at irregular intervals over past months. There was no release for August 23^rd. Whole egg values attained on average 204.4 cents per lb. for the week ending August 16^th compared to the previous week. Certified product compared with June values (in parentheses) were: -

Whole, $1.43, ($1.39); Whites, $1.22 ($0.79); Yolks, $2.28, ($1.92). (certified product)

COMMENTS

No new outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI were confirmed in any commercial laying flock during the past week. A diagnosis of HPAI was made at a live-bird market in Hillsborough County, FL. on August 20^th This indicates that infection is present in one or more supply flocks and that appropriate follow up is required. No incident cases were diagnosed in backyard flocks and presumably free-living predatory birds and scavenging carnivorous mammals with the frequency of reports reflecting surveillance intensity. The H5N1 infection in dairy herds has now been recognized as bovine influenza-A affecting more than 193 diagnosed dairy herds in thirteen states. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to continue to maintain high levels of structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with intensification persisting through July. Outbreaks in commercial flocks in early 2024 were correlated with shedding of AI virus by migratory birds that moved southward later than normal and were driven to overwintering habitat by delayed sharply colder weather in January. Northward migration should be complete but additional outbreaks can be anticipated from domestic resident birds.

Approximate losses in commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI and updates during the 2022/3 phases of the current epornitic included:-

• 6,900,000 broilers on 28 farms in 8 states during 2002 - 2023

•    330,000  broiler breeders on 11 farms in 6 states.
•       360,000 upland game birds October through December 2023.
•  14,100,000  turkeys including breeder flocks in 8 states during 2022 and through 2023 year-to-date.
• 52,300,000  egg-production hens in total with 95 percent on 37 large complexes above 0.5 million in addition to 3,500,000 pullets with a total of 54 locations in 12 states. Pullet mortality does not include “at risk” replacements depleted on affected complexes with contiguous pullet rearing. During the fourth quarter of 2023 more than 13.0 million hens were depopulated in 13 outbreaks.

Losses reported in 2024 to date include:-

• 17 million egg-producing hens and 1.3 million replacement pullets
• 1.3 million commercial meat turkeys
• 0.7 million broilers
• Various semi-commercial flocks and game-birds

Backyard flocks (non-WOAH) allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it affects the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. The late 2023- 2024 epornitic evidently has a long tail. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks especially in northern tier states suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

It is hoped that APHIS recognises the need to provide the industry with science-based recommendations to prevent additional incident HPAI outbreaks. This presumes prompt analysis and reporting of whatever field and molecular epidemiology is collected. APHIS is presumed to have planned epidemiologic field studies and allocated personnel and other resources in anticipation of a spring 2024 resurgence in HPAI. Given that large complexes in six states were infected during November and December 2023 and again in April, May and July 2024, appropriate guidance from USDA-APHIS is anticipated by the Industry for the reoccurence in progress. A release on the investigation of risk factors associated with outbreaks in dairy herds and a comment on the specifics of mutations that have occurred in viruses isolated from infected animals would be instructive.