USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, September 18^th 2024.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were down 28.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was down 18.0 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on September 16^th at $1.37 per dozen was 35.8 percent down from last week. This value was approximately $0.13 per dozen below the 3-year average of $1.50 per dozen and up $0.52 from the corresponding week in 2023 at $0.85 per dozen. This past week shell egg inventory was up 1.0 percent, following a rise of 4.6 percent during the previous week. Small fluctuation in inventory with incremental weekly decreases in price during late summer suggests lower margins for producers through the current quarter as demand ebbs and depleted flocks are replaced. Relatively higher prices compared to 2023 are attributed to losses due to HPAI depletion reducing the national flock by 20 million hens despite reduced seasonal demand expected to increase in October.
• Although there are weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Close to 13 million hens were lost during the 4^th Quarter of 2023 that have not yet been completely replaced. During April 2024 almost 8.4 million hens were depopulated with an additional 5.7 million during May and 3.0 million in July.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. There is a presumption that buyers held back on orders in the face of high prices to “bend” the trajectory of the benchmark price to their advantage before the Labor Day weekend. This is evidenced by the short-term increase in inventory despite reduced supply albeit with softening demand. The cessation of incident cases of HPAI has probably provided buyers with the confidence to hold orders and run down stock. Inventory levels will depend on constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline through late September. Discounters are holding prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are still highly competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, but highlighted as a factor in food price inflation.
• Total industry inventory was up by 3.1 percent overall this past week at 1.70 million cases with a concurrent 11.8 percent increase in breaking stock, following an 6.2 percent rise during the preceding week associated with reduced processing.
• It is now apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and in the pipeline as determined by weekly orders are probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock, especially into and after a holiday weekend.
• The number and extent of possible HPAI outbreaks during coming months cannot be projected but the industry has moved into a quiescent period. Close to 210 confirmed cases of bovine influenza H5N1 in dairy herds in fourteen states and spreading in California is a cause for concern. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic free-living birds together with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the current spring and future fall waves of HPAI. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances.
• The current relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On September 18^th the stated total flock of 307.3 million, was up by 0.5 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets scheduled to attain production. Given the latest figures for depopulation it is estimated that the total flock is approximately 19 million hens lower than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was down a substantial 25.8 percent to $1.28 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were down 38.2 percent to $1.37 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be shorter with a wide swing in price in either direction.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on September 16^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was down 28.2 percent from last week to $2.92 per dozen. Large size was down 28.4 percent to $2.90 per dozen. Mediums were down 18.0 percent to $2.51 per dozen delivered to DCs. It is emphasized that these prices are for the previous week. 

As more replacement pullets advance in production, the stock of Medium size rose by 0.2 percent but the inventory of Small size increased by 7.8 percent over the past week suggesting pullet flocks are maturing but with additional younger pullets entering production. This has implications for prices during late September and October.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 73.3 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for August 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 57 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response) and now realistically 60 cents per dozen.

Currently producers of generic shell eggs should be operating with positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The September 6^th edition of the USDA Egg Markets Overview confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was down 7.0 percent to $4.14 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $4.05 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $4.21 per dozen.

Flock Size 

The loss of 8.6 million hens in April and 5.7 million in May and 3.0 million in July should now be reflected in the most recent weekly data. Any delay in posting accurate updated data should be avoided given the importance of weekly flock numbers to pricing. Accurate and current values for both the producing and total flock are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting September 18^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was up 0.5 million to 301.2 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion is now lower than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion and an additional loss of approximately 17 million hens year-to-date. Some flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and flock depletion delayed subject to availability of housing. Based on inventory level and prices, the population of hens producing table eggs and breaking stock should now be slightly below late-summer demand by consumers. Industrial and food service off-take is stable, attaining pre-COVID levels. Prices for shell eggs have declined since late August and will plateau during early October at an unusually high seasonal level before the anticipated post-Halloween seasonal increase.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on September 18^th 2024 was 0.5 million higher at 307.3 million hens including a higher than normal population of second-cycle birds and those in molt. The difference between total and producing flocks is 6.1 million for the third consecutive week (?). The losses from mid-March through mid-July have now been taken into account. Data for the past three weeks presumes that molted hens are resuming production. Given the season and the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 19 million fewer hens in the total flock that now include cases of HPAI through late June. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 5.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on September 16^th 2024 was 2.313 million lbs. (1,051 metric tons), unchanged from the previous week and 0.5 percent down from the 2.325 million lbs. on September 1^st 2024. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of March.

The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on August 23^rd 2024 documented a total stock of 28.8 million pounds (13,093 metric tons) of frozen egg products on July 31^st 2024. This quantity was down 2.0 percent from the July 31^st 2023 value of 29.4 million pounds. July 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 4.1 percent from the previous month ending June 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, increased exports or their combination. Compared to July 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 6.2 percent to 2.37 million lbs. from July 31^st 2024. Compared to July 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 10.3 percent to 869,000 lbs. on July 31^st 2024.

A total of 88.7 percent (25.56 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (40.3 percent) and “Unclassified” (48.4 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting inventory by the USDA as it appears that they have the makings of a giant scrambled egg!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective September 16^th 2024 was up 3.1 percent over the previous week. Inventory over the past week followed a rise of 4.6 percent the previous week confirming a fall in demand by consumers into mid-September. Combined with breaking stock, the total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms is now at a rounded level of 1.70 million cases rounded (1.65 million last week; Up 51,200 cases). The U.S. population of laying hens at this time is influenced by:-

• Losses following outbreaks of HPAI with the depopulation of over 13.0 million hens during the fourth quarter of 2023 and 18.1 million hens since April 1^st including 5.7 million in May and 3.0 million in July 2024. Losses are offset by approximately 22 million pullets transferred each month over the first three quarters of 2024
• The population unaffected by HPAI or fires.
• Flocks retained after molting with an anticipated increase in this category as influenced by prevailing wholesale egg prices, and indirectly responding to flock depopulation from HPAI.
• Started pullets from chick placements during early April 2024. Going forward, younger hens will assume a larger proportion of the national flock as more flocks are placed compensating for the flocks depleted due to HPAI.

Three USDA Regions reported higher stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 1.7 percent from the previous week to 434,500 cases
• The Southeast Region was up 5.4 percent to 294,700 cases
• The South Central Region down 0.8 percent to 243,700 cases
• The Northeast Region was up 1.2 percent to 174,800 cases
• The Southwest Region was up 8.8 percent to 138,800 cases.
• The Northwest Region was down 12.5 percent to 45,700 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,697,700 cases (1,646,500 cases last week), up 3.1 percent, of which 78.4 percent were shell eggs (80.1 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was up a noteworthy 11.8 percent to 366,100 cases. Shell-egg inventory was up 1.0 percent attaining 1,331,600 cases. These changes are a function of regional shell-egg demand. Reoccurrence of HPAI affecting egg-production and turkey flocks in July influenced buyers who were previously unconcerned over short-term availability in May through June. This pressure has abated with a cessation in incident cases over seven weeks.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was down 25.8 percent last week and checks were down 38.2 percent. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 45.5 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (down 28.3 percent) compared to a disproportionate fall of 32.0 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 48.5 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI. The sharp decrease in price demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products (inventory up 3.1 percent this past processing week) confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On September 9^th 2024 the inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 385,700 cases (down 0.5 percent from last week at 387,600 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, up 9.2 percent to 31,100 cases. (was up 7.3% to 28,800 cases)
• Certified Organic, up 0.3 percent to 64,700 cases. (was down 7.2% to 64,500 cases)
• Cage-Free category, up 5.2 percent to 307,800 cases. (was up 0.4% to 292,700 cases)

Existing and proposed individual state legislation mandating sale of only cage-free eggs will support most of the completed and in-progress transition from cages but significant additional re-housing will not be completed by the beginning of 2025, now four months away and clearly never, as projected previously by most industry observers. The constitutional status of Proposition #12 was confirmed by SCOTUS in a May 11^th 2023 decision with specific reference to the dormant Commerce Clause relating to interstate trade. Legislation rolling back California Proposition #2 may be incorporated into the delayed 2023 Farm Bill. Many retail chains are ‘renEGGing’ on or extending their time commitments to achieve an acceptable transition to cage-free eggs despite coercion by animal welfare groups.

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

A comprehensive structured market research project on cage-free eggs has provided an indication of consumer willingness to pay for this attribute*.

The industry requires a study on other aspects including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and 2022-2024 HPAI epornitics including the current wave of outbreaks.

*Caputo,V. et al The Transition to Cage-Free Eggs. February 2023

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, for September 13^th 2024 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices

Large, in cartons generic white: $2.26 No features last week (n/a)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: n/a No features this week ($3.05) 

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $4.06 Down 6.9 percent ($4.36)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $4.61 Down 9.8 percent ($5.11)

National loose, (FOB dock): $1.41 Down 42.2 percent ($2.44)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $2.84 Down 28.8 percent ($3.99)

Graded loose truck lots $1.41 Down 42.2 percent ($2.44)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported September 13^thfor the previous week.

Midwest $4.05 Down 6.9 percent ($4.35)

Northeast $4.10 Down 6.8 percent ($4.40)

Southeast $4.19 Down 6.7 percent ($4.49)

South Central $4.21 Down 6.7 percent ($4.51)

Combined $4.14 Down 6.8 percent ($4.44)

WEEKLY National ADVERTISED FEATUREPRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES W/E SEPTEMBER 13^th.

USDA Certified Organic, Brown, Large: $3.99 ($4.29)

Cage-Free Brown, Large: n/a ($2.00)

Omega-3 Enriched Specialty, Brown, Large: $2.61 ($2.50)

Generic White, Large Grade A $2.26 n/a

The advertised featured price for Large white grade A for the week ending September 13^th was $2.26. The market has evidenced continued fluctuation in advertised retail promotional prices. Current supply is above demand reflecting the variable number of features over the past month. The increase in inventory held by the industry as reported by the USDA is considered to be due to decreased consumer demand. Producers continue to divert shell eggs from breaking to the higher-priced shell market. Integrated companies and packers continued to deliver to DCs.

The USDA benchmark-advertised retail price for certified organic for the week was $3.99 per dozen, (365 stores, few promotions), down $0.30 per dozen or 7.0 percent from the USDA price of $4.29 per dozen posted for 302 stores last week. There was no posted USDA advertised price for cage-free brown this past week. Week-over-week single digit fluctuations expressed as a percentage can be expected in the stock of specialty and organic eggs based on the small base of these categories.

USDA Cage-Free Data

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on August 30^th 2024, the number of certified organic hens in August was effectively unchanged from July 2024 at 19.6 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined with depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in August 2024 was up 3.2 percent from July 2024 to 104.0 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in August 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 19.6 million (18.8 million in Q2 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 104.0 million (101.0 million in Q2 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 123.6 million (119.8 million in Q2 2024).

This total value represents 37.9 percent (July, 36.9 percent) of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 40.8 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 303 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

From April 1^st through July losses due to HPAI have included 7.4 million cage free and at least 1.9 million organic hens.

The accuracy of individual monthly values was previously questioned given a history of either constant numbers or a sharp change in successive months as documented over the past two years. The values in the May 1^st Cage-Free report reflect depopulation during April. It is anticipated that the July release will reflect a realistic number of producing hens housed cage-free during June 2024. Precise quarterly reports would be more suitable for the industry in planning expansion and allocation of capital than inaccurate monthly values.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending September 14^th 2024 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on September 18^th 2024 was up 10.7 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,542,223 cases, (1,393,568 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 51.8 percent with post-holiday farm collection despite diversion to higher-priced shell markets by uncommitted producers. (54.6 percent processed in-line for the previous week). The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 68.0 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.1 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock inventory was up 11.8 percent this past week to 366,100 cases due to the previous short processing week. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2023 in-line breakers processed 55.2 percent of eggs broken.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting July 2024, yield from 5,551,343 cases (7,026,034 cases in July) denoted a decrease in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period August 4^th 2024 through August 3^1st 2024. Edible yield was 38.4 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 62.3; white, 23.3; yolk, 11.6; dried, 2.7.

All eggs broken during 2023 attained 69.78 million cases, 8.4 percent less than 2022. Eggs broken in 2024 to date amounted to 52.57 million cases, 5.2 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty following the ending of COVID support, moderate inflation, high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was down 25.8 percent this past week to $1.28 per dozen with an extreme range of $1.20 to $1.36 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on September 16^th. The price of checks was down 38.2 percent this past week at an average of $1.37 per dozen over the most frequent range of $1.36 to $1.38 per dozen. The market for breaking stock follows prices for shell eggs with a lag of about two weeks unless pronounced up or down swings occur.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated September 16^th 2024 confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were down 28.2 percent and Medium size was down 18.0 percent from the previous week. A 1.0 percent higher shell egg inventory combined with a decrease in benchmark price, confirms that the market is operating with excess supply relative to orders, attributed to lower late summer demand. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The September 16^th 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was down 31.3 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $2.57 ($3.72), (estimated by proportion): L. $2.52 ($3.67): M. $2.21 ($2.76)

The September 16^th 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, (with the previous week in parentheses) was down 24.9 percent from last week, partly due to price-related decreased demand with supply limited by depopulation. A third of the laying hens in the state was lost during the 4^th quarter of 2023 but offset by replacement pullets albeit with lower availability of eggs from Midwest and Southwest supplying states. In July the population increased to 8.19 million from 7.82 million in June.

1. $3.52 ($4.67); L. $3.46 ($4.61); M. $3.27 ($3.92)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on September 18^th 2024 was down 4.7 points from the last weekly report to -10.2 with a 3.1 percent increase in total inventory and a 1.0 percent higher shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

The USDA Monthly Report covering July 2024 production including text, tables, data and prices and the Q4 FY 2024 financial results for Cal-Maine Foods can be accessed under the STATISTICS tab.

Egg Products

Again the USDA did not release complete data for egg products for the past week. The USDA has not released a report on dried egg inventory since March 13^th 2020 due to inability to obtain data from producers, and will not issue reports for the immediate future. This situation is unacceptable given the extent of trading and the resources of the USDA.

Dried Egg

The stated range in prices for dried whole egg and yolk products in $ per lb. was released on August 13^th 2024 and is the most recent set of data. Values over past months illustrate the trend in prices influenced by HPAI depopulation and subsequent repopulation:-

* 3 weeks ago

Frozen Egg

The USDA failed to post the range in prices for frozen egg products for the past week. Prices in cents per lb. are shown for yolks on September 13^th 2024:-

Whole egg, up 0.2%; Whites, up 22.7%; Yolks up 1.2%

In the absence of data it is not possible to assess demand for categories of egg products by the manufacturing, food service and export sectors. Since trading is occurring USDA should be able to ascertain and post prices.

August averages (July): Whole. $2.27, ($1.63); Whites, $?, ($1.24); Yolks, $2.55, ($2.37).

Liquid Egg

Values for Whites and Yolks covering certified truckload quantities have been released at irregular intervals over past months. The price for yolks was not released on September 13^th. Whites attained on average 82 cents per lb. for the week ending September 13^th compared to the previous week at 106 cents per lb. Whole was at 156 c per lb. compared to 189 c per lb.. Certified products in August compared with July values (in parentheses) were: -

Whole, $1.89, ($1.43); Whites, $1.32 ($1.22); Yolks, $2.29, ($2.28). (certified product)

COMMENTS

No new outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI were confirmed in any commercial laying flock during the past week. No incident cases were diagnosed in backyard flocks and presumably free-living predatory birds and scavenging carnivorous mammals. The frequency of reports reflects surveillance intensity. The H5N1 infection in dairy herds has now been recognized as bovine influenza-A affecting 202 diagnosed dairy herds in fourteen states. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to continue to maintain high levels of structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with intensification persisting through September. Northward migration is now complete but additional outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds.

Approximate losses in commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI and updates during the 2022/3 phases of the current epornitic included:-

• 6,900,000 broilers on 28 farms in 8 states during 2002 - 2023
• 330,000 broiler breeders on 11 farms in 6 states.
• 360,000 upland game birds October through December 2023.
• 14,100,000 turkeys including breeder flocks in 8 states during 2022 and through 2023 year-to-date.
• 52,300,000 egg-production hens in total with 95 percent on 37 large complexes above 0.5 million in addition to 3,500,000 pullets with a total of 54 locations in 12 states. Pullet mortality does not include “at risk” replacements depleted on affected complexes with contiguous pullet rearing. During the fourth quarter of 2023 more than 13.0 million hens were depopulated in 13 outbreaks.

Losses reported in 2024 to date include:-

• 17 million egg-producing hens and 1.3 million replacement pullets
• 3 million commercial meat turkeys
• 7 million broilers
• Various semi-commercial flocks and game-birds

Backyard flocks (non-WOAH) allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it affects the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. The late 2023- 2024 epornitic evidently has a long tail. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks especially in northern tier states suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

It is hoped that APHIS recognises the need to provide the industry with science-based recommendations to prevent additional incident HPAI outbreaks. This presumes prompt analysis and reporting of whatever field and molecular epidemiology is collected. APHIS is presumed to have planned epidemiologic field studies and allocated personnel and other resources in anticipation of a spring 2024 resurgence in HPAI. Given that large complexes in six states were infected during November and December 2023 and again in April, May and July 2024, appropriate guidance from USDA-APHIS is anticipated by the Industry for the reoccurence in progress. A release on the investigation of risk factors associated with outbreaks in dairy herds and a comment on the specifics of mutations that have occurred in viruses isolated from infected animals would be instructive before the anticipated reoccurrence in late fall.