Updated September 2024 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption.

On September 18^th 2024 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2023 with a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous August 16^th 2024 report.

Projected egg production for 2024 was adjusted downward from the August 2024 Report to 7,801 million dozen This will be 0.8 percent less than in 2023 due to progressive depletion of hen flocks due to HPAI through July with no cases for the past 8 weeks. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2024 will be 274.8 eggs down 4.5 eggs (-1.6 percent) from 2023. The projected average 2024 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 86.9 cents to 278.9 cents per dozen.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation. The 2023 Midwest in-carton national wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th 2023. Midwest Large wholesale price was restored during May 2024 and despite substantial declines during late August through September attained $2.50 per dozen for eggs in cartons delivered to DCs on September 18^th 2024. The Midwest wholesale Large value should be compared to the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run July 2024 cost of 73 cents per dozen for caged white Large, plus a provision for processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.33 cents per dozen.

Restoration in flock size after HPAI flock depletions in 2022 progressed at a rate of approximately 0.5 million per week but placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and in some companies the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 13.0 million layers depleted during the 4^th quarter of 2023 representing 4.0 percent of the nominal producing flock of 326 million hens, mainly on complexes averaging over one million hens. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include the extent of anticipated losses during the fall migratory season. Approximately 17 million hens were lost to HPAI year-to-date in four states. At present the national egg-producing flock is down by 18 to 20 million hens compared to the complement at the beginning of the 2022 epornitic.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 2.4 percent of total production over the first half of 2024 did not materially affect the domestic price.

The USDA forecast for 2025 includes production of 8,125 million dozen, up an optimistic 4.1 percent from 2024. Projected consumption of 285.9 per capita, would be a speculative 11.1 egg (4.0 percent) increase over 2024 This forecast probably presumes complete control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets, both unrealistic assumptions. The increase, if it were to transpire would depress the NY Large benchmark price to $1.87 per dozen.

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022.

Over the first half of 2024, 39.9 million cases of eggs were exported valued at $64.6 million. Volume and value were 14.8 and 5.9 percent respectively lower compared with the corresponding months in 2023.

Over the first half of 2024, 14,503 metric tons of egg products were exported valued at $80.6 million. Volume and value were 11.7 and 12.8 percent respectively lower compared with the corresponding months in 2023.

Updated September 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses. Recovery in 2025 considered unrealistic

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 18^th 2024

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