The recent 2024 Ag Outlook Forum in Kansas City, MO. highlighted challenges facing the agricultural sector of the U.S. economy. Presentations included: -
- Dr. Spiru Stefanou, Administrator of the USDA Economic Research Service, expects farm income to drop seven percent to $10.2 billion in 2024 compared to the previous year.
- Dr. Seth Meyer, USDA Chief Economist, noted that despite projected high yields for corn, soybeans and wheat, escalation in production costs will reduce margins.
- The effect of California Proposition #12 is evident in increased prices for pork products. According to Laurie Stevermer, President of the National Pork Producers Council, reduced consumption as a result of higher prices is to some degree offset by increased pork exports.
- Generally, beef producers have benefitted from current conditions, but long-term production is questioned. Higher prices for poultry and eggs coupled with stable to low feed prices have compensated for previous losses.
Prospects for agricultural exports to China are questionable. The current Administration has retained the tariffs on imported goods imposed during the previous Administration and has recently announced protective tariffs on EVs, steel and aluminum. Former President Trump has announced high and broad tariffs on imports from China should he be re-elected. Farmers cannot expect to export to China in competition with Brazil and other suppliers if the U.S. adopts a policy of high punitive tariffs.
The 600 lb. gorilla in the room was the failure of both the House and Senate to produce an acceptable Farm Bill, delayed from 2023 and with hardly any prospect of passage during the 118th Congress.