Status of 2024 Corn and Soybean Crops

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on September 23^rd recorded 65 percent of the soybean crop dropping leaves and 13 percent harvested. Sixty one percent of the corn crop is now mature and 14 percent has been harvested. Both crops were slightly ahead of the 5-year averages for the corresponding week.

Days suitable for field-work attained 6.7 per week for the nine states with the highest corn and soybean production expediting harvest. This compares with 6.3 days for the corresponding week in 2023.

Consistent with seasonal temperatures and rainfall across the Midwest and Plains states, crop condition was almost unchanged during the past week. Corn and soybeans attained 65 and 64 percent respectively for the two highest categories of “Good” and “Excellent.” The September 23^rd values for corn and soybean quality were considerably higher than the 53 and 50 percent recorded for both corn and soybean crops respectively for the two highest categories during the corresponding week in 2023. Prospects for high yields were reflected in lower price projections in the September WASDE and for CME future prices for November and December (‘new crop’) delivery following the release of the report.

Based on the sum of the “Adequate” and “Surplus” categories, surface and subsoil moisture levels were higher than during the corresponding week in 2023. For the past week, surface and subsoil moisture values were lower, at 50 percent each for the two highest categories of ‘Adequate’ and ‘Surplus’ combined. Average topsoil moisture this past week was up two percent on average across 18 major row-crop states following rain but still with an acceptable outlook for growth and quality in 2024 given the late stage in production. Corresponding values of 47 and 42 percent were recorded for the two highest categories for topsoil and subsoil moisture respectively in 2023.

It is unlikely that the expected transition to a La Nina event will have any impact on crop condition through harvest. Prolonged dry and hot weather apparent at this time will not depress corn and soy yields depending on timing and severity.

Heat stress that occurred during silking predisposes corn to fungal infection leading to mycotoxin contamination of kernels. Unseasonal rain during the pre-harvest period for corn will also result in elaboration of mycotoxins. The status of the 2024 crop will require monitoring at harvest in affected areas and especially if unseasonal precipitation occurs during the pre-harvest period.

Reference is made to the September 13^th WASDE Report #652 and the weekly Commodity, Economy and Energy Report, both in this edition, documenting acreage to be harvested, yields, weekly prices and ending stocks. WASDE #653 will be reviewed in the October 18^th Edition.

Before the end of September the NASS intends to report on the annual remote survey to estimate yields and final production. Pro Farmer completed their annual crop tour in mid-August. The August 23^rd report estimated a corn yield of 181.1 bushels per acre with a projected crop of 14.98 billion bushels. The corresponding values for soybeans were yield of 54.9 bushels per acre contributing to a 2024 crop of 4.74 billion bushels.

EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2024 harvest in November.