A diagnosis of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in a single flock in the State of Rio Grande do Sul has disrupted exports. Domestic consumers in Brazil may benefit, at least over the short term. Given a population of 212 million per capita domestic consumption is 48kg (106lb) and is equivalent to 65 percent of annual production.  

This will indirectly benefit the Government of President Luiz Lula da Silva, currently criticized for high food prices.  Over the past twelve months through April, food prices increased by 7.8 percent with poultry and eggs up by 12.3 percent.

Economists consider that the beneficial effect from increased domestic supply and hence, a decline in prices will be transitory.  If the outbreak of HPAI is contained, exports will resume.  In the event that the disease spreads, extensive depopulation may reduce availability.  The consequence will be an increase over existing prices for poultry meat, the staple animal protein for much of the population.