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Purdue University Agricultural Economy Index Falls in June

 07/16/2025

The July 1st release of the Purdue University-CME Group Economy Barometer Index for row-crop production showed an unexpected fall in June by a noteworthy 12 points to 146 points. The Index of Current Conditions was down 2 points from May to 144. The Future Expectations Index was down 18 points to 146 suggesting concern over profitability from the 2025 crop. The Index is derived from the responses of 400 U.S. farmers and was conducted from June 9th to 13th.

 

Evident conclusions from the survey are that farmers were less optimistic than in May that represented a high point for the year to date. There are evident concerns over the prices for U.S. agricultural commodities due to the fluid tariff situation and mutual disaffection involving The People’s Republic of China. In contrast current sentiment is supported by stable to slightly increasing inflation, but with the prospect of higher interest rates and hence production costs. The outstanding concerns were:-

 

  • A decline in prices for corn and soybeans reflecting disparity between supply and demand
  • Declining prospects for exports with competition from South American producers and declining demand by China
  • High prices for seed, fertilizer and other inputs
  • The prospect of higher energy costs with continued instability in the Middle East
  • Failure of Congress to pass a Farm Bill
  • Decreased demand for biofuels

 

Many respondents indicated that they would carry higher debt burdens through 2025 and into 2026 mainly due to anticipated lower corn and soybean prices and increased costs for inputs including seed, fuel and fertilizer for the current season. More than half of the participants will reduce or cancel equipment purchases in the coming year. Almost a third consider that farm exports will decline in 2025. The same proportion strongly favor free trade compared to half of the respondents in 2020. Farmers in the survey considered that the financial condition of their farms was inferior to 2024 with the Farm Financial Performance Index at 104 for June 2025 compared to 110 for June 2024.