On January 16^th 2026 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2024 with an updated projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 15^th 2025 report.

Projected egg production for 2025 was adjusted downward from 7,737 million dozen in 2024 by 4.8 percent to 7,366 million dozen due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI. Heavy losses occurred during Q1 2025  with incident cases extending through December totaling 42.3 million hens for the year. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2025 will be 259.2 eggs, down 11.4 egg equivalents (-4.2 percent) from 2024. The projected average 2025 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 70 cents per dozen over 2024 to 374 cents per dozen. On January 16^th the price was 72 cents per dozen reflecting both increased supply and depressed consumption in that market. Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing inflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs, even with retailers maintaining high margins and failing to pass on savings to consumers.

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 1.0 million per week offset by losses due to depopulation. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and for some producers, by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On December 31^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA to be 301 million hens, 25 million or 7.7 percent below the nominal flock averaging 326 million hens during 2021 before the onset of the ongoing HPAI epornitic. Effective January 16^th the total national flock attained 300.0 million, approximately 26 million (-8.0 percent) below the pre-HPAI level. The productive flock was estimated by the USDA to be 293.4 million on January 14^th. Cage-free flocks during December attained 140 million or 46.6 percent of the total. In the January report the Egg Industry Center confirmed a total flock of 302.8 million at the end of December 2025. Unpredictable factors affecting flock size and hence price will include consumer demand as influenced by recently lower shelf prices for generic eggs and the extent of possible losses during the early winter months of the current year.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 1.8 percent of total production over the first ten months of 2025 attained 104.5 million dozen shell-egg equivalents. This was offset by imports of 108.7 shell egg-equivalents. Exports did not materially affect the domestic price. The U.S. is currently a net importer of egg products and shell eggs for breaking amounting to 4.2 million shell-egg equivalents. Future export volume will be encouraged by low domestic prices and bthe the needs of importing nations but will be constrained by international competition and disease-related embargos.

The USDA forecast for 2026 includes production of 7,900 million dozen, up an optimistic 7.2 percent from 2025. Projected consumption will be 273.7 eggs per capita. This forecast presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets. These are both speculative assumptions in the absence of approved vaccination in high-risk areas. The increase, if it were to become reality would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $1.20 per dozen compared to the 2025 value of $3.73 per dozen for conventional Large white-shelled product in cartons.

Updated January 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses.

Sourcs:   Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16^th 2026