Updated USDA Projections for 2018 and 2019 U.S. Egg Production

01/16/2020

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on January16th 2020 updating the previous December 16th 2019 report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percent respectively compared to 2018 data. The discrepancy represents over-production and hence lower prices. The benchmark New York price was accordingly reduced by 31.9 percent in unit value. Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to forecast volume of production. The latest data is reflected in the table below:-

 

 

Parameter

2015

(actual)

2016

(actual)

2017

(actual)

2018 2019 Difference % 2020

(actual) (forecast) 2018 to 2019 (projection)

 

 

EGGS

       
 

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,437

7,755

7,952 8,200 +3.1% 8,300

 

Consumption (eggs per capita)

255.8*

272.0

279.9

284.0 289.9 +2.1% 293.3

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

138 94 -31.9% 95.5

                   

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -January16th 2020

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

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