USDA-WASDE FORECAST #606 November 10th 2020

11/10/2020

OVERVIEW

The November 10th 2020 USDA WASDE Report was updated from the October edition reflecting drought conditions and the August 10th derecho with consequences to corn and soybean harvests and ending stocks. November projections are based on actual harvest areas and yields. The corn acreage to be harvested is currently estimated at 82.5 million acres, unchanged from the October 9th WASDE report. Soybeans will be harvested from 82.3 million acres, unchanged from the October 9th WASDE report.

 

The November 2020 WASDE estimate of corn yield was lowered 1.5 percent to 175.8 bushels per acre, (168.0 bushels per acre in 2019). The projection of soybean yield was reduced 2.3 percent 50.7 bushels per acre. (47.4 bushels per acre in 2019)

 

The November USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was decreased by 21.5 percent to 1,702 million bushels. Due to decreased supply and exports the ending stock for soybeans was reduced by 34.5 percent to 190 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with increased compliance with the Phase-One trade agreement with China. The November WASDE projected the corn price at $4.00 per bushel and soybeans at 1,040 cents per bushel.

 

It is presumed that projections are based on the assumption that China will as far as possible honor commitments that were disrupted during the first quarter of 2020 by COVID-19. China booked substantial orders for corn and soybeans delivered through August for the 2019-2020 market year in addition to large quantities booked from September onwards for the 2020-2021 market year. Reports on volumes of commodities exports to China will be included in upcoming editions of CHICK-NEWS and in subsequent mailings as data becomes available.

 

CORN

The corn harvest for 2020 documented in the November 2020 WASDE Report #606 is projected at 14,507 million bushels consistent with actual planting data and crop progress. The projected 2020 harvest can be compared to 2019 at 13,692 million bushels and is 4.2 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was reduced by 1.3 percent to 5,700 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was retained at 5,050 million bushels despite reduced domestic demand for E-10 due to COVID-19 restrictions and competitive export markets. Corn exports were raised 14.0 percent to 2,650 million bushels in the face of intense competition from Brazil and Argentine and high world domestic coarse grain production relative to demand. Ending stocks were decreased by 21.5 percent or 465 million bushels to 1,702 million bushels.

 

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was raised by 40 cents to 400 cents per bushel. Near close of trading on November 10th after release of the WASDE the CME quotations for December and March corn were 423 cents and 431 cents per bushel up 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively from quotations on September 11th.

 

NOVEMBER 2020 WASDE #606 PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2020 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area

82.5 m acres

(91.0 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 90.7% of acres harvested)

Yield

175.8 bushels per acre

(was 178.4 bushels per acre in October WASDE.)

Beginning Stocks

1,995 m. bushels

Production

14,507 m. bushels

Imports

25 m. bushels

Total Supply

16,527 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

5,700 m. bushels

34.5%

Food & Seed

1,425 m bushels

 8.6%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,050 m. bushels

30.6%

Domestic Use

12,175 m. bushels

73.7%

Exports

2,650 m. bushels

16.0%

Ending Stocks

1,702 m. bushels

10.3%

Ending Stock-to-domestic use proportion

14.0%

(Was 17.7 % in the October 2020 WASDE Report)

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

 

Average Farm Price: $4.00 per bushel. (Up 40 cents per bushel from the October 2020 WASDE Report)

 

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL

USDA projected the 2020 soybean crop to attain 4,170 million bushels, down 2.3 percent from the October value. The 2020 harvest is based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. With respect to use parameters crushings were retained at 2,180 million tons. Projected exports were unchanged at 2,200 million bushels, based on orders from China during the fourth quarter of 2020 in accordance with the Phase-One Trade Agreement. In early September and through October prices increased in response to bookings for the 2020-2021market year. Prior to 2018 our largest trading partner imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans. Ending stocks were adjusted downward from 460 million bushels in September and 290 million bushels in the October to 190 million bushels in the November WASDE.

 

The USDA projection of the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2020 harvest is 1,040 cents per bushel, up a noteworthy 60 cents per bushel from the October 2020 WASDE estimate. At close of trading on November 10th and following release of the WASDE, the CME quotations for soybeans for January and March 2021 delivery were 1,146 cents and 1,144 cents per bushel up 7.6 percent and 9.3 percent respectively compared to the values on October 9th for January and March 2021 delivery.

 

NOVEMBER 2020 WASDE #606 PROJECTION FOR THE 2020 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION:-

Harvest Area

82.3 m acres

(83.1 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 99.0% of planted acreage)

Yield

50.7 bushels per acre

(Was 51.9 bushels per acre in the October WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

523 m. bushels

(Unchanged from October 2019 WASDE)

Production

4,170 m. bushels

Imports

15 m. bushels

Total Supply

4,708 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crushings

2,180 m. bushels

46.4%

Exports

2,200 m. bushels

46.7%

Seed

103 m. bushels

 2.2%

Residual

35 m. bushels

0.7%

Total Use

4,518 m. bushels

96.0%

Ending Stocks

190 m. bushels

4.0%

(Was 290 m. bushels in the October WASDE)

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

 

Average Farm Price: 1,040 cents per bushel (Up 60 cents per bushel from October WASDE Report)

 

Projected supply of soybean meal was held at 52.2 million tons. Domestic use was unchanged at 38.3 million tons. Exports were unchanged at 13.5 million tons. The USDA increased the ex plant price of soybean meal to $355 per ton up $20 per ton. At close of trading on November 10th CME quotations for December 2020 and March 2021 deliveries of soybean meal were $394 and $389, higher in the case of December delivery by 6.9 percent delivery compared to the October 9th quotation.

 

NOVEMBER 2020 PROJECTION OF SOYABEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

Beginning Stocks

0.341 m. tons

Production

51.409m. tons

Imports

0.400 m. tons

Total Supply

52.150 m. tons

Domestic Use

38.300 m. tons

Exports

13.500 m. tons

Total Use

51.800 m. tons

Ending Stocks

0.355 m. tons

 

Average Price ex plant:$355 (Up $20 per ton from the October 2020 WASDE Report)

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest low to stable production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

 

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

 

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November WASDE included the following appraisals:-

 

 “Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 11.1 million tons to 1,447.8 million. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged use, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Moldova more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Laos. For Ukraine, the projected corn yield is lowered based on continued poor harvest results to date and if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13”.

 

“Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include larger corn exports for the United States, Turkey, and South Africa, with mostly offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia. Corn imports are raised for China and South Korea, but lowered for the EU, Mexico, and Iran. For China, while the National Development and Reform Commission has not made any public statements indicating additional corn import quota has been allocated, shipment data for exporting countries through early November indicates they will exceed their tariff rate quota level of 7.2 million tons. Barley exports are raised for the EU, with higher imports forecast for China. Total coarse grain imports for China are forecast to reach a record 26 million tons, just above the previous high of 25.7 million reached during 2014/15”.

 

“Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are higher, mostly reflecting increases for China and South Africa that are partly offset by reductions for the EU and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 291.4 million tons, are down 9.0 million from last month”.

 

“The 2020/21 foreign oilseed production is lowered 2.6 million tons to 478.9 million mainly on lower sunflower seed production for Ukraine, the EU, Moldova, and Argentina. Ukraine’s sunflower seed output is lowered 2 million tons to 15 million on drought conditions during the season and harvest results to date. Dryness also impacted yield prospects for Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. Lower sunflower seed production for Ukraine results in lower global sunflower meal and oil exports. Partly offsetting are higher exports of palm oil from Malaysia and rapeseed meal from Russia”.

 

“The 2020/21 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and crush, resulting in lower exports of oilseed meals and vegetable oil. Foreign oilseed production is lowered 5.6 million tons to 473.3 million, mainly on lower soybean crops for Argentina and India and lower sunflower seed production for Ukraine and Russia. Yields are reduced for Ukraine and Russia on dry weather conditions during the season and recent harvest results. Argentina’s soybean production is lowered as economic uncertainty reduces area expansion. Crop reductions result in lower exports of soybean and sunflower seed meal and oil. Foreign oilseed stocks are increased slightly as lower cottonseed, sunflower seed, and peanut stocks are offset by higher soybean stocks. Foreign soybean stocks are increased mainly on 2019/20 revisions to imports and crush for China and Argentina, respectively”.

 

Updated World production and use of total grains and oilseeds is summarized for the 2020/2021 season taking into account Northern and Southern Hemisphere production:-

 

Factor: billon m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oil Seeds

Output

1.448

597

Supply

1.780

707

World Trade

224

191

Use

1.458

511

Ending Stocks

321

 99

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds






































































































































































































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