Updated USDA Projections for U.S. Egg Production

11/18/2020

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on November 17th 2020 revising the previous October 16th 2020 report. The volume of eggs to be produced in 2020 was reduced by 0.1 percent from the October report. Consumption was lowered by 0.2 egg per capita consistent with current trends. The November projection for 2020 production and per capita consumption were revised downward to reflect reductions of 2.9 and 2.7 percent respectively from 2019. The discrepancy between production and consumption in 2020 will be partly offset by the substantial but transitory rise in price in March and April. The 2020 benchmark New York unit price for 2020 was unchanged from 2019. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to volume of production in 2019. Subsequent USDA forecasts will provide greater clarity on reopening of the economy that is still depressed with high unemployment associated with COVID restrictions.

 

For 2021 the USDA forecast production to attain 8,165 million dozen, up 1.8 percent from 2020 production with a disproportionate 1.4 percent increase in per capita consumption to 288.7 eggs that will be reflected in lower unit realization.

October 2020 data is shown in the table below:-

 

Parameter

2017

 (actual)

2018

 (actual)

2019

 (revised)

2020
(projection)
2021
(forecast)
% Difference 2020-2021

EGGS

       

Production (m. dozen)

7,811

8,042

 8,265

 8,022 8,165 +1.8

Consumption (eggs per capita)

282.1

287.8

 292.8

 284.8 288.7 +1.4

New York price (c/doz.)

101

138

94

117 110 -4.3

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook –November 17th 2020

 

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.






































































































































































































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