COMMODITY REPORT

10/06/2021

WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT: OCTOBER 7th 2021.

 

  • Commodity prices fluctuated over the past week but both corn and soybeans ended down 0.9 percent compared to Thursday 30 th September
  • Factors influencing prices in either direction included:-
    • Restoration in operation of most terminals on the lower Mississippi following Hurricane Ida. Installations have been repaired and are unloading barges and loading bulk carriers. (moderate upward pressure)
    • Anticipation of the October 8th WASDE with updates of ending stocks (limited downward pressure);
    • Lower than anticipated export sales, especially to China (downward pressure);
    • Moderation of drought in many counties in the corn belt with harvesting advanced to slightly less than half of the crop with an indication of yields consistent with forecasts by USDA and ProFarmer field evaluations. (moderate downward pressure);
    • Drought in Brazil causing a low Safrinha (second) crop (upward pressure);
    • Restoration of shipments from Argentina albeit at lower than normal volume (moderate downward pressure);
    • Central Government of China attempting to stabilize prices of pork and corn (downward pressure).

Projected harvests and ending stocks in the U.S. will be updated in the October 8th WASDE especially since there will be greater clarity on acreage and the effects of weather and trade to date on ending stocks.

 

  • U.S producers are now receiving and conversely livestock producers in the Midwest will pay above $5.30 per bushel for corn and crushers will pay $12.50 per bushel for soybeans plus transport and basis during the last week of September. Corn was down 0.9 percent this past week for December delivery. Soybeans were down 0.9 percent for November delivery. Soybean meal was down 2.1 percent for December delivery compared to last week reflecting the decline in the price of soybeans.
  • The FAS Export Report released on October 7th for the week ending September 30th reflecting market year 2021-2022, confirmed that outstanding export orders for corn for the new market year amounted to 24.1 million metric tons (950 million bushels) with 0.97 million metric tons (38.2 million bushels) actually shipped. During the past week orders for the 2021-2022 market year amounted to 1.27 million metric tons (50.0 million bushels). For market year 2022-2023 outstanding sales amounted to 0.33 million metric tons (13 million bushels) with no sales recorded this past week.
  • The FAS Export Report released on October 7th for the week ending September 30th reflecting market year 2021-2022 recorded outstanding export orders for soybeans amounting to 23.3 million metric tons (835 million bushels) with 0.94 million metric tons (34.5 million bushels) actually shipped. Weekly soybean orders attained 1.04 million metric tons (38.2 million bushels).
  • During the week ending September 30th 396,000 metric tons of soybean meal and cake were ordered for the market year 2021-2022, up 492 percent from the previous week. There were no shipments recorded by USDA-FAS this past week, an omission that should be rectified in the October 14th weekly report.

 

The following quotations for delivery in the months as indicated were posted by the CME at 14H00 on October 7th 2021, compared with values posted at close of trading on September 30th 2021 (in parentheses):-

 

COMMODITY

 

Corn (cents per bushel)

Dec. 532 (537)

March ‘22. 541 (545)

Soybeans (cents per bushel)

Nov. 1,246 (1,257)

March ’22. 1,266 (1,273)

Soybean meal ($ per ton)

Dec. 322 (329)

March ’22. 325 (337)

 

Changes in the price of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over five trading days this past week were:-

COMMODITY CHANGE FROM PAST WEEK FOR MONTH OF DELIVERY AS INDICATED

Corn: Dec. quotation down 5 cents per bushel (-0.9 percent)

Soybeans: Nov. quotation down 11 cents per bushel (-0.9 percent)

Soybean Meal: Dec. quotation down $7 per ton (-2.1 percent )

 

The USDA weekly wholesale feedstuffs prices per short ton, posted on October 6th (with previous week in parentheses) were:-

  • Corn: $181 ($179), Chicago
  • Soybean Meal: $326 ($344), Central Illinois
  • Meat and Bone Meal: $360 ($370), Central Midwest
  • DDGS: $195 ($175), Eastern corn belt
  • For each $1 per ton (2.5 cents/bushel) change in corn:-
    • The cost of egg production would change by 0.011 cent per dozen
    • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.06 cent per pound live weight
  • For each $10 per ton change in the price of soybean meal:-
    • The cost of egg production would change by 0.44 cent per dozen
    • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per pound live weight

 

The respective changes in the prices of corn and soybean meal for October 6th compared with September 30th USDA weekly quotations would decrease nest-run production cost for eggs by 0.8 cents per dozen. For broilers cost would be lowered 0.4 cents per live pound extending the decrease from the previous week.

 

Year-to-date, escalation in the prices of major ingredients has added 2.2* cents per dozen eggs and 1.2* cents per live-weight lb. to broiler production cost

*(rounded to 0.1cent)

According to the September 10th WASDE, corn harvested in calendar 2021 will attain 14,996 million bushels with ending stocks projected at 1,408 million bushels, up 13.4 percent from the 1,242 million bushels in the August 2021 WASDE Report. Values will be updated reflecting production, ongoing export volumes and domestic use in the October WASDE report, with over half of the crop harvested. Total corn stocks on September 1st amounted to 1.24 billion bushels down 36 percent from September 1st 2020. Compared with the September 23rd value, the CME quotation for corn at 14H00 on October 6th for December 2021 delivery was down 5 cents per bushel to 532 cents.

 

The social restrictions imposed in the U.S. as a result of COVID-19, that are now being lifted, reduced ethanol demand by 1.5 billion gallons or 10 percent of projected 2020-2021 requirement, accepting a nominal ten percent addition to gasoline. This past week 77.6 percent of the U.S. ethanol fermentation volume was operational, based on January U.S. Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) capacity data. The outlook for increased production will depend on higher domestic demand in addition to increasing approximately 25 percent of production that is exported. The industry received an adverse ruling from SCOTUS in late June invalidating year-round sales of E-15 approved previously by the EPA. According to the U.S. EIA, for the week ending October 1st the industry produced on average 978,000 barrels per day, up 7.0 percent from the week ending September 24th 2021, and the 12th successive week under an average of 1 million gallons per day. On October 1 st ethanol stock was 1.5 percent lower than the previous week at 19.9 million barrels, representing an approximately 20-day reserve and confirming a slight increase in demand.

 

Ethanol was priced at $2.22 per gallon on October 6th unchanged from the previous week and compared with a five-year low of $0.92 per gallon on March 26th 2020 during COVID restrictions. Concurrently RBOB gasoline at $2.30 per gallon (quoted, New York Harbor) was up 2 cents per gallon (0.9 percent) from the previous week, reflecting a 2.5 percent higher WTI crude price of $76.90 per barrel. The effect of Hurricane Ida causing a temporary suspension of offshore Gulf operations and refining in Louisiana has yet to be quantified. Gasoline is now 8 cents per gallon cheaper than ethanol but with a 63 percent higher BTU rating.

 

With most plants among the 201 that were operational on January 1 st 2021 now functioning, DDGS is freely available but commanded a higher price than in the first and second quarters of 2021. Eastern Corn-belt DDGS was priced at $195 per ton on October 6th 2021, $20 per ton higher than the previous week and $35 per ton more expensive than on September 29th 2020. Generally DDGS is currently incorporated at low inclusion levels, if at all, in egg-production formulas based on high price relative to the nutrient contribution of corn and other ingredients. This will change as corn and hence DDGS fluctuates in price

 

Soybeans continue to be the beneficiary of export demand by China and other nations in addition to domestic livestock production. The CME price for November delivery at 14H00 on October 6th was lower by 11 cent per bushel to 1,246 cents compared to 1,257 cents per bushel on September 30th. The USDA projected a 2021 crop of 4,374 million bushels. Ending stocks according to the September 10th 2021 WASDE projection will be 185 million bushels, up 19.4 percent from the August WASDE Report. Total soybean stock on September 1st amounted to 256 million bushels down 51 percent from September 1 st 2020 indicating the extent of exports during the 2020-2021 market year.

 

According to a release on September 16th by the National Oilseed Processors Association, 165.1 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in August compared to 172.8 million bushels in July and 168.1 million bushels in August 2019, pre-COVID. Lower production in recent months is attributed to extended maintenance in anticipation of the fall harvest. On October 6 th 2021 soybean meal quoted central Illinois was priced at $326 per ton, $18 per ton lower than the previous week and compared to $326 per ton on September 29th 2020.

 

On October 6th 2021 Meat and Bone meal quoted Central U.S. was $360 per ton, down $10 per ton from the previous week but compared to $228 per ton on September 29th 2020.

 

On October 6th the conversion of CNY 1 to the BRL was 0.85 BRL, unchanged from the previous week. The conversion of US$1 to the CNY was 6.45, down CNY 0.20 from the previous week.

 

For consecutive calendar years 2017 through 2019 the U.S. supplied 34.4 percent of soybean requirements for China amounting to 95.5 million metric tons. This was followed by a decline to 16.9 percent of 88.5 million metric tons in 2018 and 16.6 percent of 88.0 million metric tons in 2019. The USDA anticipated that soybean imports by China would attain 95 million metric tons during the 2020-2021 market year but in reality only 60.3 million tons was shipped through August 2021.

 

For the 2019/2020 market year China imported 2.1 million metric tons of corn from the U.S., 4.8 percent of total exports of 43.3 million tons, but 12 percent less than in the 2018/2019 market year. The USDA-FAS documented sales of U.S. corn to China through late August 2021 comprising the 2020/2021 market year amounting to 73 million metric tons (2,876 million bushels) with 93 percent shipped.

 

COMMENTS

Subscribers are referred to the September 10th 2021 WASDE #616 and the Crop Progress, Grain Stocks and Planned Acreage reports under the STATISTICS Tab.






















































































































































































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