USDA-WASDE FORECAST #619 December 9th 2021

12/09/2021

OVERVIEW

The December WASDE documented the end of the 2021growing season with no changes in acreage or yield and hence harvests of either corn or soybeans. The USDA ERS retained the projected ending stocks of corn, soybeans and soybean meal from the November report with the 2021 harvest advanced at this time. The area of corn harvested was confirmed to be 85.1 million acres. Soybeans were harvested from 86.4 million acres.

 

The December 2021 WASDE firm estimate of corn yield was retained at 177.0 bushels per acre, based on completion of the corn harvest by late November, (175.8 bushels per acre in 2020). The estimate of soybean yield was retained at 51.2 bushels per acre based on completion of the harvest by late November (50.7 bushels per acre in 2020).

 

The December 2021 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was retained at 1,493 million bushels. Anticipating supply and exports, USDA retained the projection of ending stock for soybeans at 340 million bushels.

 

Projections for ending stocks of both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with fluctuation in exports. China only places orders in accordance with their needs and central Government policy rather than compliance with the Phase-One trade agreement of February 2020. The December WASDE projection retained the price of corn at $5.45 per bushel. The soybean projection of price was maintained at 1,210 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was raised $5 per ton to $325.

 

It is accepted that projections are based on the reality that China sharply increased purchases of commodities during the recently concluded market year partly to cover low stock caused by drought, and COVID-related disruptions in imports during the first quarter of 2020. China booked substantial orders for corn and soybeans from September 2020 onwards for the 2020-2021market year but is moderating orders now for the current market year. Reports on volumes of commodities exported to China and other nations are included in weekly editions of CHICK-NEWS and EGG-NEWS as USDA data is released.

 

CORN

The completed corn harvest for 2021 documented in the December 2021 WASDE Report is 15,062 million bushels, unchanged from November. The 2021 harvest can be compared to 14,507 million bushels in 2020 and is 0.6 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from the November report at 5,650 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was held at 5,250 million bushels consistent with current domestic demand for E-10 and other blends following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. Projected corn exports were held at 2,500 million bushels despite recent shipments to China and Mexico. Ending stocks were unchanged with a projection of 1,493 million bushels.

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was unchanged at 545 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on December 9th after release of the WASDE the CME quotation for December corn was at 584 cents per bushel, up 6.2 percent from the quotation on November 9th and currently 7.2 percent above the USDA projection.

 

 DECEMBER 2021 WASDE #619 PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2021 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area

85.1 m acres

(93.3 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 91.8% of acres harvested)

Yield

177.0 bushels per acre

(was 176.5 bushels per acre in the September WASDE.)

Beginning Stocks

1,236 m. bushels

 

Production

15,062 m. bushels

 

Imports

25 m. bushels

 

Total Supply

16,323 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

5,650 m. bushels

34.5%

Food & Seed

1,430 m bushels

 8.8%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,250 m. bushels

32.2%

Domestic Use

12,330 m. bushels

75.5%

Exports

2,500 m. bushels

15.3%

Ending Stocks

1,493 m. bushels

 9.2%

Ending Stock-to-domestic use proportion

12.1%

(Was 12.2 % in the October 2021 WASDE Report)

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: $5.45 per bushel. (Unchanged from the October and November 2021 WASDE Reports)

 

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL

USDA retained the projection for the 2021 soybean crop at 4,425 million bushels based on the completed harvest and the confirmed projection of 51.2 bushels per acre. With respect to use parameters, crushings were retained at 2,190 million tons. Projected exports were held at 2,050 million bushels, consistent with lower orders from China during the 2021-2022 market year. This is attributed to current requirements for imported ingredient for animal feed and the reality that traders in China prefer to order on a stable or declining market unless faced with shortages. From early October 2020 to the present, prices increased in response to bookings for the 2020-2021 market year. Prior to 2018, China, our largest trading partner for agricultural commodities imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested. Ending stocks were held at 340 million bushels.

 

The USDA projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2021 harvest was retained at a level of 1,210 cents per bushel. At 14H00 on December 9th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for January 2021 delivery was 1,260 cents per bushel, up 59 cents or 4.9 percent compared to the November 9th 2021 quotation for December delivery and 4.1 percent above the November USDA-WASDE projection for 2021/2022.

 

December 2021 WASDE #619 PROJECTION FOR THE 2021 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

Harvest Area

86.4 m acres

(87.2 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 99.1% of planted acreage)

Yield

51.2 bushels per acre

(Was 51.5 bushels per acre in the October WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

256 m. bushels

(Was 175 million bushels in the September WASDE)

Production

4,425 m. bushels

 

Imports

15 m. bushels

 

Total Supply

4,696 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crushings

2,190 m. bushels

46.6%

Exports

2,050 m. bushels

44.7%

Seed

102 m. bushels

 2.2%

Residual

15 m. bushels

0.3%

Total Use

4,356 m. bushels

93.8%

Ending Stocks

340 m. bushels

7.2%

(Up 20 million bushels from the Oct. 2021 WASDE)

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

 

Average Farm Price: 1,210 cents per bushel (Unchanged from the October and November 2021 WASDE Reports)

 

The projected supply of soybean meal was held at 51.7 million tons based on current production driven by domestic and export demand and higher prices for soy oil. Domestic use was unchanged at 37.9 million tons. Exports were held at 14.2 million tons. The USDA raised the projected ex plant price of soybean meal by $5 per ton from November to $330 per ton. At 14H00 on December 9th the CME quotation for December 2021 delivery of soybean meal was $368, up $25 per ton or 7.2 percent compared to the November 9th CME quotation and 11.5 percent above the December USDA-WASDE projection for 2021.

 

December 2021 WASDE #619 PROJECTION OF SOYABEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

Beginning Stocks

0.341 m. tons

Production

51.709 m. tons

Imports

0.450 m. tons

Total Supply

52.500 m. tons

Domestic Use

37.900 m. tons

Exports

14.200 m. tons

Total Use

52.100 m. tons

Ending Stocks

0.400 m. tons

  1. = million
  2.  

Average Price ex plant: $330 (Up $5 per ton from the November 2021 WASDE Report)

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest increasing production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

 

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.44 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

 

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

 

CORN AND COARSE GRAINS

“Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.7 million. The foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, increased trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for the E.U. and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for China. E.U. corn production is raised reflecting increases for France, Romania, and Poland. Ukraine corn production is higher based on harvest results to date. China corn production is reduced reflecting the latest information published by the National Bureau of Statistics which indicated higher area that was more than offset by a reduction in yield. Barley production is raised for Australia but lowered for the EU and Iran. Sorghum production is increased for Australia”.

 

“Corn exports are raised for Ukraine and the E.U. Imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom but lowered for Israel. For 2020/21, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on higher-than- expected shipments through the month of November. Sorghum exports for 2021/22 are raised for Australia, with higher imports projected for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, the EU, Mexico, and Iran that are partly offset by a reduction for China”.

 

OILSEEDS

“The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is projected at 627.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month mainly driven by lower soybean production reported by the China National Bureau of Statistics. China’s soybean production is down 2.6 million tons to 16.4 million on lower area. Largely offsetting China’s reduction is higher sunflower and soybean output for Russia and Ukraine based on harvest results. Rapeseed production is increased for Australia and lowered for Canada based on recent government reports, and India’s production is increased on a faster-than-expected planting pace. Global crush is reduced as lower soybean crush for China more than offset higher sunflower seed crush for Russia and Ukraine”.

 

“Global oilseed trade for 2021/22 is projected at 196.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Increased rapeseed exports for Australia and increased soybean exports for Canada and Ukraine account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 114.1 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month mainly on lower soybean stocks for China”.

 

Updated World production and use of total grains and oilseeds is summarized for the 2020/2021 season taking into account Northern and Southern Hemisphere production:-

 

Factor: billion m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oilseeds

Output

1.502*

628

 

Supply

1.824

741

 

World Trade

254

196

 

Use

1.493

527

 

Ending Stocks

331

114

 

*Values rounded to million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)






































































































































































































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