USDA-WASDE FORECAST #625 June 11th 2022

06/10/2022

OVERVIEW

 

Egg-NewsIn a preamble to the May WASDE Report the USDA cautioned that events in Eastern Europe following the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation would have unpredictable consequences. It is evident that the 2022 harvests will be seriously reduced and that Black Sea shipping is disrupted. This situation continues with no prospect of resolution.

 

The June 10th 2022 WASDE retained corn and soybean data from May for the 2022 season consistent with planting commencing at the end of April with delays in the major production areas due to inclement weather. Projections of the acreages of corn and soybeans to be planted were unchanged from the April report to conform to the Prospective Planting Report released on March 31st. This showed a four percent reduction in corn acreage and a corresponding increase in the area planted to soybeans. Corn and soybean yields were unchanged from May.

 

Egg-NewsThe USDA ERS raised the projected ending stock for corn consistent with a projected increase in supply. Ending stocks for soybeans were lowered in response to an adjustment in carry over. The area of corn to be harvested in 2022 was projected to be 81.7 million acres. Soybean acreage was increased to 90.1 million acres. The respective acreages will be subject to revision depending on the situation in Ukraine, relative CME prices for corn and soybeans and predicted production margins as influenced by costs of fertilizer and fuel that are increasing rapidly. The July WASDE will confirm the respective acreages planted to the major crops.

 

The June 2022 WASDE initial estimate of corn yield was retained at 177.0 bushels per acre, despite the delay in planting as compared to 175.8 bushels per acre in 2021. The estimate of soybean yield was raised to 51.5 bushels per acre compared to 51.2 bushels per acre in 2021.

 

The June 2022 USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was raised to 1,400 million bushels assuming predetermined production level, domestic use and exports. The USDA lowered the projected ending stock for soybeans from 310 million bushels in the May report to 280 million bushels. The ending stocks for corn and soybeans will be revised in the July WASDE in the light of more accurate projections of acreage planted, emergence and exports as influenced by geopolitical events.

 

The June 2022 WASDE projection held the price of corn at $6.75 per bushel. The projected price for soybeans was adjusted upwards to 1470 cents per bushel. Soybean Meal was unchanged at $400 per ton. All three of the price projections deviate from the June 10th CME quotations for July delivery.

 

Projections included in the May and June 2022 WASDE reports were developed before the full impact of the invasion of the Ukraine can be evaluated. It is evident that production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower seed by Ukraine will be sharply reduced compared to recent annual averages. It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities during the current market year despite drought and COVID-related disruption of imports during the first quarter of 2021.

Reports on volumes of commodities exported are included in weekly editions of EGG-NEWS based on USDA data.

 

CORN

 

Based on March 2022 planting intentions the projected corn harvest for 2022 was retained at 14,460 million bushels compared to 15,062 million bushels in 2021. If farmers maintain application rates of more expensive fertilizer to maximize yields the projected 2022 harvest will be 4.6 percent lower than the previous 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual” category was held at 5,350 million bushels. The “Ethanol and Byproducts” category was unchanged at 5,375 million bushels consistent despite increased domestic demand for E-10 and other blends following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. Projected corn exports were held at 2,400 million bushels based on recent and projected shipments to China and Mexico and taking into account the anticipated availability from Eastern Europe. Ending stocks were 2.9 percent higher than in the May WASDE to 1,400 million bushels.

 

The forecast USDA farm price for corn was held at 675 cents per bushel. At close of trading on June 19th after release of the WASDE the CME quotation for July delivery was at 773 cents per bushel, down 5.0 percent from the quotation on May 12th for May delivery and currently 14.5 percent above the June USDA projection.

 

JUNE 2022 WASDE #625 PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2022 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area

81.7 m acres

(89.5 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 91.3% of acres harvested)

Yield

177.0 bushels per acre1

(was 177 bushels per acre since the December WASDE.)

Beginning Stocks

1,485 m. bushels

Production

14,460 m. bushels

Imports

25 m. bushels

Total Supply

15,970 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

5,350m. bushels

33.5%

Food & Seed

1,445 m bushels

 9.1%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,375 m. bushels

33.7%

Domestic Use

12,170 m. bushels

76.3%

Exports

2,400 m. bushels

15.0%

Ending Stocks

1,400 m. bushels

 8.7 %

Ending Stock-to-supply use ratio

8.8%

(Was 8.5 % in the May 2022 WASDE Report)

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

NOTE 1. No allowance for late planting in 2022

 

Average Farm Price: 675 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the May WASDE Report)

 

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL.

 

Based on March and April 2022 planting intentions the USDA retained the projection for the 2022 soybean crop at 4,640 million bushels with an estimated yield of 51.5 bushels per acre. With respect to use parameters, crushings were held at 2,255 million tons with exports unchanged at 2,200 million bushels. This is despite concerns over availability of oilseeds from Eastern Europe and the drought in Brazil and Argentina. There is speculation over orders from China for the 2021-2022 market year. This is attributed to presumed reduced requirements for imported ingredients for animal feed and the reality that traders in China are obligated to order on a stable or declining market unless faced with shortages. From early October 2020 to the present, prices increased in response to bookings for the 2020-2021market year. Prior to 2018, China, our largest trading partner for agricultural commodities imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested. Ending stocks were held at 340 million bushels.

 

The USDA projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2022 harvest was raised 2.1 percent from the May WASDE Report to 1,470 cents per bushel. At close of trading on June 10th following release of the WASDE, the CME quotation for July 2022 delivery was 1,748 cents per bushel, up 56 cents or 5.1 percent lower compared to the May 12th 2021 quotation for May delivery and 18.9 percent higher than the June USDA-WASDE projection for 2021/2022.

 

JUNE 2022 WASDE #625 PROJECTION FOR THE 2022 SOYBEAN HARVEST:-

Harvest Area

90.1 m acres

(91.0 m. acres planted, harvest corresponding to 99.0% of planted acreage)

Yield

51.5 bushels per acre

(Was 51.4 bushels per acre in the April WASDE)

Beginning Stocks

205 m. bushels

(Was 235 million bushels in the May WASDE)

Production

4,640 m. bushels

Imports

15 m. bushels

Total Supply

4,860 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Crushings

2,255 m. bushels

46.3%

Exports

2,200 m. bushels

45.3%

Seed

102 m. bushels

 2.1%

Residual

23 m. bushels

0.5%

Total Use

4,580 m. bushels

94.2%

Ending Stocks

280 m. bushels

5.8%

(Down 30 million bushels from the May 2022 WASDE)

1 metric ton = 76.34 bushels

 

Average Farm Price: 1,470 cents per bushel (Up 30 cents from the May 2022 WASDE Report)

 

The projected supply of soybean meal was unchanged from May at 53.05 million tons despite current production driven by domestic and export demand and higher prices for soy oil. Domestic use was held at 39.0 million tons. Exports were unchanged at 14.4 million tons. The USDA retained the ex plant price of soybean meal at $400 per ton. At close of trading on May 10th the CME quotation for July 2022 delivery of soybean meal was $430 per ton, down $30 per ton or 7.6 percent compared to the May 12th CME quotation and 9.4 percent above the June USDA-WASDE projection for 2022.

 

JUNE 2022 WASDE #625 PROJECTION OF SOYABEAN MEAL PRODUCTION AND USE

Beginning Stocks

0.400 m. tons

Production

53.050 m. tons

Imports

0.450 m. tons

Total Supply

53.900 m. tons

Domestic Use

39.000 m. tons

Exports

14.400 m. tons

Total Use

53.400 m. tons

Ending Stocks

0.400 m. tons

  1. = million

Average Price ex plant:$400 (Unchanged from the 2022 WASDE Report)

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

 

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest increasing production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

 

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

 

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the May WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

 

“Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.3 million tons higher to 1,479.2 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government. Barley production is lowered for the EU, mostly on forecast declines for Spain and France that are partially offset by an increase for Germany. Barley production for Australia and Ukraine is reduced based on declines in area.

 

Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include larger corn imports for the EU, but reductions for Morocco, Jordan, and Peru. Barley exports are lowered for Australia, the EU, and Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised relative to last month, mostly on increases for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 310.5 million tons, are up 5.3 million from last month”.

 

OILSEEDS:

Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is lowered 0.3 million tons to 646.8 million as lower sunflower seed is partly offset by higher rapeseed and soybean output. Sunflower seed production is lowered and soybean production is raised for Ukraine based on planting progress reports. Rapeseed production is raised for Australia on higher harvested area.

 

Global 2022/23 soybean ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 100.5 million, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s 2021/22 soybean production is raised 1.4 million tons to 43.4 million on better-than-expected reported yields. Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 126.0 million on higher area reported for Mato Grosso.

 

Updated World production, including the U.S. and use of total grains and oilseeds is summarized for the 2020/2021 season taking into account Northern and Southern Hemisphere production:-

 

Factor: billion m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oilseeds

Output

1.479*

647

Supply

1.816

752

World Trade

228

197

Use

1.480

528

Ending Stocks

336

120

*Values rounded to million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)










































































































































































































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